cliff harris
Member
Serious production of the Tesla semi will catch everybody out. Especially wall street. A few very big companies will place huge orders for them.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
In 2024, Tesla Energy's revenue will double what it was in 2023
One consistent weakness in Troy's reasoning is his persistent assumption that Tesla exists in a static world.
When Tesla automotive products are not even sold in several major automotive markets and Tesla Energy products are barely scratching the surface of demand in any given market and not present in most high demand locations it is quite obvious that only distribution widening could contribute to higher sales in both categories.
Of course we do not know for sure how 2024 develops and myopia could well be prescient. I really do not think so, though, since improving battery supply and greater production capacities will be appearing throughout the year. Further, BEV adoption rates will rise in much of the world.
Yes, Sweden and sympathetic unionists elsewhere may impede sales growth. Even so Model 3 and Model Y refreshes will generate automotive growth during the year and increasing volume in new markets and existing ones are more likely than not.
Regardless of outlook, assuming demand limitations is foolish. Assuming impediments in other ways may be less so. With what we know today I think something on the order of 2.3 million vehicles is not optimistic, with doubling again of Tesla Energy sales highly likely. I'll keep my profitability estimates to myself, except to say that those who think of Tesla Energy do not reasonably estimate reduced margins there. FWIW, I have no idea whether Optimus or FSD might become 2024 factors, but I will be amazing if either does.
Ok, I'll bite: In 2024 Tesla will begin to open a factory in Chile, deploying new, never before seen, water and resources efficient lithium mining and refining.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
One is a measure of TAM (Total Addressable Market) the other is a per year metric. They aren't directly comparable.
It doesn't matter if 1% or 10% of the TAM buys, if you triple the TAM you have tripled the absolute quantity even at the same percentage.
Given the recent change in government, would Argentina be in the running?
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
“Production-constrained” and “Demand-constrained” are somewhat misued terms. Production constraint is a real thing: at any time, Tesla can only make some maximum number of cars.
Demand constraint is a misnomer, because demand is a function of price.
But both can be controlled by price. Hitting your production constraint? You may not be able to make more, but you can raise the price to lower demand (but increase margins).
Not enough demand at the current price? Lower price and demand magically goes up.
The error in Troy’s comment that Tesla is “demand constrained” is that we don’t live in a static world. Interest rates are expected to drop in 2024. As someone who forecasts, he should know this. This effectively lowers price for the majority of auto
buyers who finance. Therefore, demand will increase assuming that interest rates drop in 2024.
Edit: mostly Ninja’d by unk above.
Demand constraint is a misnomer, because demand is a function of price.
But both can be controlled by price. Hitting your production constraint? You may not be able to make more, but you can raise the price to lower demand (but increase margins).
Not enough demand at the current price? Lower price and demand magically goes up.
The error in Troy’s comment that Tesla is “demand constrained” is that we don’t live in a static world. Interest rates are expected to drop in 2024. As someone who forecasts, he should know this. This effectively lowers price for the majority of auto
buyers who finance. Therefore, demand will increase assuming that interest rates drop in 2024.
Edit: mostly Ninja’d by unk above.
Last edited:
Tesla will sell more vehicles in 2024 than they will in 2023
MartinAustin
Active Member
2025 prediction... 2.7 million vehicles delivered
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Doesn't work like that. You are basically expanding TAM on the downside that is unlikely to buy new cars - let alone a Tesla.
People who don't pay even 7.5k in taxes per year but who would buy a Tesla are miniscule in number.
point of sale is more of a convenience for people who would have to get the money when they file taxes.
Interestingly what would actually help Tesla is to remove the 300k income cap.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I have others of course 
▪︎ New lowest price for a Model 3 will be $34,990.
▪︎ Roadster deliveries will begin towards the end of the year.
▪︎ Construction in India and Mexico will be in full swing, and a South American plant will be announced.
▪︎ Existing Cybertrucks and 4680-based Model Ys will charge faster than 255kW under the right conditions
▪︎ New lowest price for a Model 3 will be $34,990.
▪︎ Roadster deliveries will begin towards the end of the year.
▪︎ Construction in India and Mexico will be in full swing, and a South American plant will be announced.
▪︎ Existing Cybertrucks and 4680-based Model Ys will charge faster than 255kW under the right conditions
A married couple that brings in $85k gross isn't interested in a Y for $36,500 with zero out of pocket (tax title excluded)?
Because lower income people don't want a sub $40k car, but people making $300k+ can't handle $145 more a month? ($7.5k on a 60 month 6% loan)
Also, don't count out new college grads with less than a year of employment ahead of them (or gifted $ from parents).
TSLA will visit both $200 and $400.
Not so sure about this but how about another Chile prediction:
Rumors will start about the build out of the supercharger network with local companies identified to begin installation in 2025. So 2024 is the start of an aggressive plan for Chile. Have a supercharger network will underway when the first next gen cars roll out of the GigaMexico factory in late 2025.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Sure ... but how many ? I'd like to see a break down of new car buyers by income.
May be its my west coast (very expensive) bias - but almost everyone here with two incomes (esp. in tech) seems to make 300k a year.
For eg. one of the reasons I won't get a foundation series (even if invited) is because of tax credits. Since I've the ability to move around my income - I can reduce it next year to get tax credits.
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
Model 2 (or whatever they name it) will be officially announced & start deliveries (by the end of the year), and it will have double+ pre-orders vs Cybertruck within 1 week.
No. Argentina is in dire straits economically. Until and unless they emerge from all that self-inflicted pain they will have no real prospect. Just search for Argentina finances to see the whole mess. In the meantime, though Argentina tourism is the Bargain of the decade, or longer. 160% inflation rate will do that!
FWIW, I’ll offer bets that Superchargers there will begin in 2024.
PREDICTION FOR 2024 -- Announcing the Tesla Model 2 - the long awaited 2-door hatchback priced at $24,420.69! Tesla fans go crazy!!! Shortz SHRINK!!!
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