Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Day 03: Three French hens | Model 3 bets the company​

Part of 12 Days of Christmas - Tesla Edition a series (c) by the Artful Dodger, Dec 2023

Over this Yuletide season, I will post a daily installment focusing on Tesla products, past, present, and future. Here's the series to date: (please note that I will continue to express major themes as short-hand bullet points, or I will run out of Yule before I post this - most of you know what I'm talking about already, so this is your reminder)

Day 01: A partridge in a pear tree | Roadster Proof of Concept
Day 02: 2 Turtle Doves | S/X Fraternal Twins go Mainstrem

Intro to Part 3: Bet the Company

• Elon outlined his vision for Tesla in The Secret Master Plan - The Mission is all about SCALE
• the climate crisis can only be averted by a massive transition of the dig'n'burn economy
• People are unwilling to give up hard-earned comforts, so how to ensure the future is good?
• that requires shifting transportation to renewable energy, battery storage, and EVs
• Since automakers weren't adopting EVs at a pace that would make a difference, Tesla needed to make the leap from being a niche automaker to being a major player, steering the industry

The Tesla Mission Statement is:

“to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.”​

​

The Tesla Vision Statement is:

“to create the most compelling car company of the 21st century by driving the world's transition to electric vehicles.”​

1. Fremont - "we learn by doing"
   1. battery packs and modules - Tesla Grohmann Engineering to the Rescue
   2. Flufferbot - less is more (humans are underrated)
   3. welding the rear body - motivation for the die cast chassis/underbody
      1. Munro Associates 1st teardown:
         1. Tesla has better than Mil-spec electronics and motors
         2. but they use a gastley assortment of welds and fasteners
   4. Expanding the Range:
      1. Model 3 Performance (high-end dual-motor introduced w. high margins)
      2. the "Lemur" - when Panasonic hesitates, Tesla builds a 3 w. fewer cells
      3. the SR+ - promise forfilled on the $35K car (briefly)
   5. Constant Improvements:
      1. the "Factory OS" and the "Digital Twin"
      2. weekly changes instead of annual model years
      3. COGS -7% per year - "game of nickels"
2. Shanghai - "doing it at Tesla-speed"
   1. the 12-month promise:
      1. Just a 'Fuddy Field' - Bimbette Dopez
      2. Tesla is 1st 100% Foreign-owned Automaker
      3. local support - Gov't and Banks as team players
   2. 1st production - "on time, on target" Elon time-dilation
      1. localizing the supply chain (how to go from 10% to 90% in 1 yr)
      2. constant infrastucture improvements (bridges, bldgs, R&D)
   3. Giga Shanghai becomes Tesla's export hub
      1. infrastucture and logistics
      2. Co-vidiocy (round 1 of CCP shutdowns)

Through all these growing pains, Tesla became profitable in Q3 2019. By Feb 2020, TLSA Market Cap had reached over $180B. This put Elon on pace to earn all 12 tranches listed in his 2018 CEO Compensation plan (as approved by a vote of TSLA Shareholders). This also enriched early TSLA retail investors far beyond what they had dared hoep. Even more important, Tesla had created the EV tech, manufacturing infrastructure, and established the patterns they would use for future growth.

Conclusion: Model 3 became the 1st mass-market car that was desirable simply because it was a better car than its competitors, not just because it was an EV. Thus, Model 3 kicked opened the floodgates for what would soon become the World's Best Selling car... Model Y

Tomorrow's Topic:
Day 04: Four calling birds | Model Y made at 4 factories

 

[madodel]

I guess Tuberville’s short didn’t pan out. Expire today for 190.

Elon Musk blasts Tesla short sellers after Tuberville stock disclosure: ‘Gluttons for punishment’

In this year’s biography of Musk by Walter Isaacson, he was quoted calling short sellers “leeches on the neck of businesses.”

www.al.com

Did he do this having early information that Tesla would be losing some of the tax incentives? If yes, is that not insider trading?

 

[elasalle]

Chanos gone, Gojo is quiet no ?

 

[2daMoon]

Chanos gone, Gojo is quiet no ?

Maybe they have all retreated into their caves in anticipation of the coming storm?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Maybe they have all retreated into their caves in anticipation of the coming storm?

Maybe there is a relationship? How are the usual hitpiece suspects in the media?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Interesting news, looks like Rivian has partnered with Chase, just got this email:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes... but... "bidens-alarming-harassment-of-elon-musk"

Not worried. Uncle Jack told me that one guy has them surrounded, out-numbered, and out-gunned.

The Conspiracy Against Tesla … Is Too Obvious | CleanTechnica (Aug 15, 2019)

SS/DD. It's just a matter of time...

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[tracksyde]

Why ship it? Why was it not driven to FL from Austin? Just wondering

He actually did drive it back to Florida with his older son. After he left Giga Austin, he got an a X livestream which I happened to catch. He mentioned that he was driving it back (or something about a long road trip ahead of them back home).

He also mentioned during the stream that he "knew someone that knew someone at Tesla" and they had reached out to him and asked him if he wanted to take delivery of his CT early and he said "sure".

EDIT: here's the stream: https://x.com/alexisohanian/status/1730352619036520716?s=20

 

[H Mak]

Not worried. Uncle Jack told me that one guy has them surrounded, out-numbered, and out-gunned.

The Conspiracy Against Tesla … Is Too Obvious | CleanTechnica (Aug 15, 2019)

SS/DD. It's just a matter of time...

Cheers to the Longs!

Great bloke. Not you, Jack

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1735712953142223273

 

[Artful Dodger]

Great bloke. Not you, Jack

Yup, Uncle Jack Rickard was the OG retail market-beater. I miss him, but his daughter still posts videos (with some selected clip of past Jack appearances) on the EV-TV Youtube Channel.

Spoiler: Jack Rickard Tribute Memorial Mural - Nov 2023

Jack Rickard Tribute Memorial Mural | Nov 23, 2023

 

[M|S|M MYP]

New note from the Jonas Brother:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1735693145956811022

 

[Artful Dodger]

What to expect on Friday? The market makers of course will try for a push below the high call-wall at 250.

Good take. I think there's one more factor at play this week, since today (Triple-Witching Friday) is also the 3rd anniversary of TSLA's addition to the S&P 500 Index. If you recall, TSLA was added at a SP of $695 which is now $231.67 (split-adjusted). Let's have a look at the 3-year Chart:

As you can see, the S&P 500 addition price has been both support and resistance for TSLA over these past 3 yrs. I'm quite certain there are a significant number of pyschologist-cum-hedgies out there determined to see TSLA close today under the S&P 500 price from 3 years ago (they love playing mind games, especially weaponized against Retail investers).

Alas, J.Pow could nolonger maintain the charade of high interest rates justified by now-tamed high inflation. So, bears lost control of the narrative on Wednesday afternoon. Not for lack of trying though, as shortzes had driven TSLA to well-below the Lower-BB during the Wed a.m. session, only to see it reverse dramatically and Close above the Upper-BB. Such is the life of lying-no-account-leeches short sellers.

In the long-run, it's a weighing machine...

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1735643473171112428

 

[Drumheller]

Not worried. Uncle Jack told me that one guy has them surrounded, out-numbered, and out-gunned.

The Conspiracy Against Tesla … Is Too Obvious | CleanTechnica (Aug 15, 2019)

SS/DD. It's just a matter of time...

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[NicoV]

The EU natural gas price gas gone down the last few weeks, presumably because of lack of supply fears. It is now at a 2-year pre-war low: Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures Pricing
That’s good for the electricity prices, since these are linked to the natural gas price.

 

[Max Plaid]

The EU natural gas price gas gone down the last few weeks, presumably because of lack of supply fears. It is now at a 2-year pre-war low: Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures Pricing
That’s good for the electricity prices, since these are linked to the natural gas price.

Indeed, I even got a mail from my provider - Luminus - suggesting I lower my monthly pre-payment!

Quite a change from last year when I was on a fixed-tarrif, but wasn't aware, that just happened to be set at the highest price point of the year and lasted the next 12 months -> goto toally screwed over!

 

[MikeC]

Did he do this having early information that Tesla would be losing some of the tax incentives? If yes, is that not insider trading?

I think he probably had better inside info than that - but US politicians are actually allowed to trade on insider info. He bought them right before a post-ER dump and probably sold them shortly after.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1735757496420032551

Deleted because true or false?

 

[gaswalla]

I surmise that the next gen car will be a small stainless steel car made with gigacastings... and cybertrucks would be easy to make in the same factory. Hence, MX for both