Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

The push is real:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924063908/tm2413800d8_defa14a.htm?utm_campaign=investor_relations&utm_content=investor_relations&utm_medium=email&utm_source=operational_trigger&utm_term=quarterlyupdate

 

[Cosmacelf]

Is the move up maybe related to this little snippet? Some specific details on the Model 2 (which I just said yesterday seemed like wasn't happening lol)

Model 2 in Europe to being production in 2027.

Model 2x (bit more rugged) to begin production in Austin in 2026

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792989572625768921

Those sound like robotaxi timelines. The "rugged" version wouldn't be meant for offroad use, it would be meant for 24x7 usage as a robotaxi. Just hose the interior down at the end of the day or whatever.

Don't worry, there will be lots more pronouncements of "news" built on very slender reeds of misunderstood single facts.

 

[scaesare]

I think we’re talking about car industry, not some artisan manufacturing? Clearly Semi’s production has not yet been started. They are building prototypes by hand approximately one/month as they have for few years.

Started doesn't mean "automated". Nor does it mean "volume production".

Nor does low volume or hand-built mean "prototype".


Again, I suggest you look at the many posts that have discussed why low initial volume and then a ramp to volume production makes sense in this instance.

 

[mongo]

Troy believes a customer can go from qualifying for financing, to car pick up, to insurance registration in 2 days.

You can though. Insurance is same day, final payment can happen day of/ day before pickup, and financing can happen in a day.
We submitted financing request Friday, approved Monday. Delivery notice a different Friday, payment submitted and insurance confirmed same day, picked up Saturday and that's with the lowest volume model in an adverse state.
Buying cars previously, I've walked into a dealship with no prep and driven home with a car. Once we had to have the specific model shipped in.

Which isn't to say his argument and conclusion are valid.

 

[scaesare]

Your link is broken.

Anyway, here we are...seven years later after Elon said they could do the "convoy" autonomous driving with their Semis, and we have no evidence that Tesla or Pepsi has ever utilized the technology. You remember the math about the convoy of trucks vs rail economics, right?

I get that you think Elon is never wrong so it must be hard to square that.

You may want to consider reading to the end of the current posts before hitting send on your reply... I noted that and sent the correct link several hours before you posted this.

 

[scaesare]

Perhaps because we don't yet know if the spokesperson was talking about their Sacramento location, their Modesto location, or both.

Regardless Pepsi has them. Therefore, your assertion they had 21 was incorrect, no?

 

[X Fan]

This article supports a negative future case for Tesla…saying eventually CCP will squeeze out Tesla :

Tesla's in China – It's just a question of how long - Asia Times

One day the Tesla experience in China will be a business school case study, though not in a good way. Elon Musk thinks he has a

asiatimes.com

 

[nativewolf]

You can though. Insurance is same day, final payment can happen day of/ day before pickup, and financing can happen in a day.
We submitted financing request Friday, approved Monday. Delivery notice a different Friday, payment submitted and insurance confirmed same day, picked up Saturday and that's with the lowest volume model in an adverse state.
Buying cars previously, I've walked into a dealship with no prep and driven home with a car. Once we had to have the specific model shipped in.

Which isn't to say his argument and conclusion are valid.

Certainly I think most people would be shocked to think it takes longer than a few hours to do it all.

 

[Singuy]

This article supports a negative future case for Tesla…saying eventually CCP will squeeze out Tesla :

Tesla's in China – It's just a question of how long - Asia Times

One day the Tesla experience in China will be a business school case study, though not in a good way. Elon Musk thinks he has a

asiatimes.com

Would love to hear some examples of

"The history of foreign ventures in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) goes like this:

• Foreign company flourishes with unlimited local support.
• Foreign company builds a market.
• Foreign company becomes the operating model for local providers to copy.
• A local company and its stakeholders build up proficiency at some level of sustainability, sometimes by poaching key employees and intellectual property.
• Foreign company starts coming under pressure whose goal is driving it out of the market or forcing it to sell its assets to the local company.
• Local company takes over the market with second-rate products.
• Foreign company exits China."

I mean it can happen, like if Ford and the Germans car companies doesn't produce what the Chinese want, which are EVs right now, then yeah sure I can see them closing shop. But that's a Ford and German auto problem, not because the Chinese are done extracting their resources.

Last time I checked, Starbucks, KFC, MCD, Michael Kors, Chanel, Apple, LV, Coca Cola, Samsung, Sony, Disney, etc etc all are breaking record sales. China has plenty of domestic brands but even Costco has a mile long line in China.

Going to visit there myself in a week, but so far just by the fact that my relatives who lives in Tier 1 city are waiting impatiently for me to bring them some ibuprofen because they find the Chinese branded products to "not work as well" tells me what people still thinks about domestic vs foreign products. My uncle used my dad's insulin pen and was blown away at the accuracy of the shot and how painless it was.

It's a bunch of nonsensical speculation not based on reality.

 

[nativewolf]

This article supports a negative future case for Tesla…saying eventually CCP will squeeze out Tesla :

Tesla's in China – It's just a question of how long - Asia Times

One day the Tesla experience in China will be a business school case study, though not in a good way. Elon Musk thinks he has a

asiatimes.com

Of course they will.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You can though. Insurance is same day, final payment can happen day of/ day before pickup, and financing can happen in a day.
We submitted financing request Friday, approved Monday. Delivery notice a different Friday, payment submitted and insurance confirmed same day, picked up Saturday and that's with the lowest volume model in an adverse state.
Buying cars previously, I've walked into a dealship with no prep and driven home with a car. Once we had to have the specific model shipped in.

Which isn't to say his argument and conclusion are valid.

If you have a previous existing insurance policy, you are automatically covered for 30 days from the initial purchase, so you could technically purchase the vehicle and wait 29 days to report it to your insurance company, while still being covered (Not advice of course). That's how it is with all the insurance companies i have been with at least.

 

[Singuy]

You can though. Insurance is same day, final payment can happen day of/ day before pickup, and financing can happen in a day.
We submitted financing request Friday, approved Monday. Delivery notice a different Friday, payment submitted and insurance confirmed same day, picked up Saturday and that's with the lowest volume model in an adverse state.
Buying cars previously, I've walked into a dealship with no prep and driven home with a car. Once we had to have the specific model shipped in.

Which isn't to say his argument and conclusion are valid.

The finance deal didn't have a 2 day expiration date. If it did, then I can see people dropping everything they were going to do and work on their car purchase for the next 48hrs. However this isn't the case and I see no reason why a typical person would want to rush any of these processes just to pick up their car in under 48hrs.

 

[EQC_]

TBH its probably extremely unlikely. The use case for starlink is rural. They just cannot support the population density in a city, certainly not as well as ground based cell towers and wired internet can. And the use case for robotaxi is overwhelmingly urban.

Starlink cell service definitely wouldn't make sense as the car's main means of communication, and probably would never be needed in the city.

But: having it as an option, using existing hardware, could be useful for emergency and roadside-assistance in many cases.

On my commute (a couple hours outside Los Angeles, but through a remote-ish desert area), there are definitely places with approximately zero cell service across at least AT&T and Verizon. If there was an accident, a health crisis, or a vehicle disablement (even just a flat tire), having some available service via Starlink could be beneficial.

I think that is the intent with the cell phone/starlink service too -- when cell towers aren't an option and you need to make contact. Rare, but high impact uses.

 

[mongo]

The finance deal didn't have a 2 day expiration date. If it did, then I can see people dropping everything they were going to do and work on their car purchase for the next 48hrs. However this isn't the case and I see no reason why a typical person would want to rush any of these processes just to pick up their car in under 48hrs.

It's not a rushed process though, especially with a trade in or low down-payment requirement.
I can imagine there were a lot of people that wanted a specific Tesla and the financing deal was the final push so they did hurry before inventory dried up.
Especially since it's all app based so life impact is only required for the delivery itself.

 

[Singuy]

It's not a rushed process though, especially with a trade in or low down-payment requirement.
I can imagine there were a lot of people that wanted a specific Tesla and the financing deal was the final push so they did hurry before inventory dried up.
Especially since it's all app based so life impact is only required for the delivery itself.

I think you are speaking as an Americans. In China, a lot of times when you make big purchases like these, you not only have to make sure your wife clears it, but also your parents. Also it's almost shameful to finance any car (or anything for that matter) in China. This is why only 6% of the people finance. Honestly we don't even finance our cars in the US. A lot of times, this will be the first time the buyer have ever financed anything and most likely doesn't even know where to start. The condo they are staying in are usually bought by their parents who took the original condo given to them by the Chinese government, and split the sales proceed to buy their kids that condo.

 

[Skryll]

This article supports a negative future case for Tesla…saying eventually CCP will squeeze out Tesla :

Tesla's in China – It's just a question of how long - Asia Times

One day the Tesla experience in China will be a business school case study, though not in a good way. Elon Musk thinks he has a

asiatimes.com

In reality western fossil fuel has managed to inhibit electrification progress everywhere except in China. Brilliant move on elons part.

 

[MC3OZ]

In reality western fossil fuel has managed to inhibit electrification progress everywhere except in China. Brilliant move on elons part.

Yes, top priority for the Chinese is energy independence which means no imported fossil fuels.

Beyond that Tesla is a very good example for Chinese EV makers to copy and compete against. A term used in sport is "iron sharpens iron", to become the best, you need to compete against the best.

Tesla is no longer relevant in China when Chinese EV makers have a permanent lead in manufacturing technology,

 

[uscbucsfan]

I think you are speaking as an Americans. In China, a lot of times when you make big purchases like these, you not only have to make sure your wife clears it, but also your parents. Also it's almost shameful to finance any car (or anything for that matter) in China. This is why only 6% of the people finance. Honestly we don't even finance our cars in the US. A lot of times, this will be the first time the buyer have ever financed anything and most likely doesn't even know where to start. The condo they are staying in are usually bought by their parents who took the original condo given to them by the Chinese government, and split the sales proceed to buy their kids that condo.

Google says 64% of cars were financed in 2022 after China eased their finance policies in 2018. 85% in US.

 

[MitchMitch]

Next chapter in the Caresoft teardown of the CT. I really like how Terry goes in depth on the progression from one vehicle to another, in this case, the progression from the Model Y to CT. He is duly impressed with the changes that are being made, with a focus on manufacturability. I also like how he points out areas that can still be improved.

Must watch to get even a better sense of how hard Tesla pushes innovation. It further drives home what most of us here already know -- Tesla is accelerating faster than the competition is catching up.

I could watch Caresoft presentations all day. So well thought out. (Kind if like Cybertruck?)
John's reactions and Terry's style are a nice balnce to Munro, whom I also wouldn't miss.
Bullish!
(Not advice )

This made me wonder (circled) . . . and smile . . .

(Not an electrician . . . well, maybe a hack electrician )

 

[MC3OZ]

To be fair, those seats look really close together. I think most would prefer individual seats, but it's a cab and you probably aren't sharing with a stranger, so it's irrelevant.

On a bus or a train you are probably sharing with a stranger, and the seat may be smaller.

This ticks most of the boxes for what I hoped to see, and what I expected to see, Narrow frontal area means less drag and hence fewer kWh per mile.

So I may be in the minority, but I hope the final product is very close to this design.