Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stretch2727]

But the message says nothing about Model Y losing credits next year. It's just saying take delivery this year for full credit, not that Model Y will be losing credits next year. I can find nothing from Tesla that explicitly says the Y is losing credits. When I go to Tesla's Model Y order page I get this message:

"All new Model Y vehicles currently qualify for a federal tax credit for eligible buyers. $7,500 tax credit will reduce to $3,750 for Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive and Model 3 Long Range on Jan 1, 2024. Take delivery by Dec 31 for full tax credit."

Nothing here is being said about Model Y losing credits. I think people are jumping to conclusions/making assumptions

Yes pretty clear it is ending on Model 3 Rear Wheel Drive and LR. Ambiguous on Model Y.

As I believe the battery packs are the same in the Model Y and 3 it is very odd.

Speculating that they may start building using the 4680 structural pack with the improved CT batteries on Model Y to keep the credit somehow.

The rules for the IRA have become so complicated and probably not worth speculating too much. It seems like a mix of what was written into law and how much the federal government can tailor and massage guidance to get the max number cars with the credit heavily considering the legacy players.

 

[The Accountant]

Are others seeing this?

There is still so much ignorance when it comes to Tesla. Two people I know, but barely interact with, reached out to me separately yesterday and this morning, specifically to make sure I’d heard about my car being recalled. One even owns a Tesla!

Presumably they were concerned with my safety, lest I accidentally drive the recalled vehicle and get into a terrible accident. Better take it in to the “dealer” right away and get it fixed!

I had to explain this was an OTA update, essentially a government mandated addition of more nags to make the vehicle ‘safer’, when in fact it will just make it more annoying to drive.

So much education still to be done for the general public.

The Today Show reported on this and mentioned it was a recall AND also a free software update making it sound as if it were 2 things . . . a recall and an update. They left the impression that this was a "return to dealer" recall.

I don't get angry when I see this; I am like Scrooge McDuck counting my money . . . .because when there is a gap between truth and what the market believes, the security is mispriced . . .and that is how I make our money.

Patience . . Patience!

 

[Krugerrand]

Your car insurance agent is more knowledgable about the current and future car trends than 99% of wall street.

Wallstreet doesn’t need to know about any company represented by a ticker to make money, and likely doesn’t. Even optimisticly if we say Wallstreet knows more about other companies than it does Tesla, that wouldn’t be saying much.

Yeah, think about that for a second. Given what we know for certain about Wallstreet’s Tesla knowledge level, what makes anyone think Wallstreet knows about any other company?

If that doesn’t change one’s perspective about who and how The Market is controlled -

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

If only there was a refresh around the corner that can juice up demand...and a reduction in interest rate going into 2024...if only...

The refresh and interest rate reduction will buoy some demand, I'd argue maybe up to $4000 worth in ASP, but unlikely anywhere near the full $7500 loss in tax credit.

The point is anything less than a full recovery of the $7500 in tax credit means worse gross margins than before. This is the most likely outcome in the nearterm. 1 year from now? It may not matter.

Hi Chicken Little! How's tricks?

I'm holding the perspective on incentives that Elon does. Tesla doesn't need these handouts in order to succeed. So, a couple of versions of Model 3 losing their qualification won't make much, if any, difference in the long run.

Add to this how the Highland version will come to the US as a version that has lower production costs and higher demand from buyers, and it will be a wash. If it uses locally sourced batteries it will get those incentives back.

Go the next step and compare Tesla EV sales to each, and then to all, other BEV manufacturers to further put this into perspective. Despite Tesla being unable to get this credit, the others won't be able to either. So it is also a wash in regard to the impact to all BEVs. Further, on the models the other OEMs offer, the numbers of vehicles being delivered make this insignificant anyway. (I'm sure you are also neglecting to recognize Tesla's lead in developing their own domestic production of batteries)

What Dan Ives calls the "Green Tidal Wave" is gaining speed, not losing it. Tony Seba's transition expectations are on track.

So, rather than sitting on the beach munching on your Nothing Burger, while being worried you might step on a crab if you go swimming, get in the water and paddle out, Surf's UP!

Gross margins could be a few thousand higher on Highland, but not come anywhere near $7500 worth of demand loss.

We've been through this discussion before. My predictions of low earnings in 2023 into 2024 proved prescient a year ago.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Buffett owns a lot of car dealerships too. There's a reason he hasn't invested in Tesla. They're success degrades a lot of his businesses: Oil, insurance, car dealerships, utilities, even trains (autonomous Semis). Literally the opposite of Tesla. His last huge investment: occidental...

teslamotorsclub.com

Obviously the stock maintained a high PE ratio inspite of declining earnings, but the earnings trend is still headed in the wrong direction. I'm just saying this can put pressent on current day valuations (this has nothing to do with long term competitiveness against other OEMs).

I am not short the stock, nor am I long at the moment. If the stock dips below $200, I will begin buying again.

 

[jerry33]

I've done that since 2012. FWIW my Model S Plaid has used Superchargers only twice since September 2021. Always stay at hotels with free charing and the odd free charge in shopping center etc, but the vast majority is charging at home.

Somehow this issue keeps at high attention even though long time BEV users almost never have problems unless they're trying to replicate an ICE behavior. It's always possible to create problems.

If you stay at hotels or similar during trips, ones with charging facilities are always preferable because it means fewer charging stops the next day.

 

[uscbucsfan]

It is quite possible that demand for the two CT models being offered for delivery in 2024, at current prices, among those ready, willing, and able to pay those current prices and take delivery in the USA, will be under 125k in 2024.

Right.

It's one or the other. Either there's not a ridiculous backlog of demand for the prices/products presented on November 30th or they aren't going to deliver them all.

That's my point.

There were anywhere from 1.5-2 million pre-orders and then however many that signed up afterwards. Either you believe that less than 10% of pre-orders will be willing to purchase at the prices/configs offered or there is a multi-year wait.

For TSLA stock, the >10% conversion rate is worse than a multi-year backlog.

Also, it's reasonable to point out that for all things Tesla does well, timelines are their worst aspect...See CT launch, S/X refresh delivery timelines, FSD, M3 timelines, 4680 development, Roadster 2.0, Semi,etc.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The Today Show reported on this and mentioned it was a recall AND also a free software update making it sound as if it were 2 things . . . a recall and an update. They left the impression that this was a "return to dealer" recall.

I don't get angry when I see this; I am like Scrooge McDuck counting my money . . . .because when there is a gap between truth and what the market believes, the security is mispriced . . .and that is how I make our money.

Patience . . Patience!
View attachment 999359

^^^ This ^^^

As someone implied yesterday, TA has very little to do with this (besides the odd gap fill that seems to happen when we notice it). The recall was an old trick that I took in as bullish because the changes seemed to satisfy the safety board. It means they came to an agreement on what is the definition of safe driving with AP. This could mean the next step is to let the car go free in some instances. Maybe not yet, but the info is not a negative for me. That is exactly the advantage here over the Analysts (and Accountants).

Hats off to the TMC forum - All of you with all your views, negative one's too which is also telling. If this thread was used to create an NN, we'd all clean house.

 

[winfield100]

If this isn't a sarcastic post it's sad level of delusion.

Try to break it down logically. Do you think 99% of pre-orders cancelled?

You think the demand for the CT is really under 125k people?

Because you said Elon doesn't sandbag.

Or...the way most people read it, delivery of the Cyberbeast and AWD start in 2024.

OT Sorta
get PV (now a commodity)
(1956 >$1,800/watt, 2023 20 cents a watt)
(yes i was alive back then)

get Powerwall ~14kwh PW
get gateway (because)
{get Powerpack (discontinued 2022) 100kWh V1, 200kWh V2}

SO instead

get Cybertruk ~+100kWh
(hmm, >than powerpack! )
(or single motor CT)
(SMCT + 1-2PW = powerpak)
plug in CT to home electrical panel

grid down, no problem
VPP, distributed over CT's & LRMY's & PW's & stationary + .......... $$$$ + demise of traditional utilities revenue streams

stock price very nicely appreciates steadily for the HODL'ers
Tesla Energy

 

[Artful Dodger]

what makes anyone think Wallstreet knows about any other company?

Wall St. knows alot about which companies are vulnerable to bear raids, short attacks, and FUD campaigns. That's what they focus their research efforts on. You know, 'investment opportunities'. /s

 

[The Accountant]

Some comments on the "R" in R&D.
When I worked at a consumer products company (beverages) our research and development functions were practically combined. One person led both research and development. There's not a lot of research going on in a beverage company compared to other industries.
But when I got into the Pharma industry, I saw that Research was a totally separate function from Development. There are 100's of ideas and projects in Research and many of them never see the light of day but once a project meets the Proof of Concept goals and is deemed marketable, it passes onto Development to figure out how to engineer, manufacture and in some cases how to market it.

We have much visibility into Tesla's Development pipeline (Gen 2, Optimus, Robotaxi, FSD, even the Tesla van is likely in Development) but we have no visibility into it's Research projects. Likely years ago, Tesla began research work on Steer by Wire, Vehicle to load charging, 48V, single casting, etc. but we were mostly oblivious to it until these ideas moved into Development or were delivered with a product.

At the pharma company I worked at, all analysts covering our stock knew our drug Development Pipeline well but none knew about our Research projects.
My point here is that there are many exciting projects that the Tesla Research team is working on that we won't know about until a few years from now. There will more positive surprises that will move the companies valuation forward.

 

[jerry33]

I've done that since 2012. FWIW my Model S Plaid has used Superchargers only twice since September 2021. Always stay at hotels with free charing and the odd free charge in shopping center etc, but the vast majority is charging at home.

Agreed that the majority of charging is done at home, but you make it sound as if all trips are drive to one hotel, spend one or more nights, and then drive home. This is true for Japanese Love Hotels, but many trips consist of several days and several hotels with charging at Superchargers between. Having done many trips in ICE vehicles over the years before Tesla, the only time I noticed a real difference was during the first couple of years when Superchargers were make of unobtainium.

 

[Usain]

If this isn't a sarcastic post it's sad level of delusion.

Try to break it down logically. Do you think 99% of pre-orders cancelled?

You think the demand for the CT is really under 125k people?

Because you said Elon doesn't sandbag.

Or...the way most people read it, delivery of the Cyberbeast and AWD start in 2024.

I'll repeat this one more time.

Tesla knows better than us how many Cybertrucks are expected to be delivered in 2024.
Tesla knows better than us how many early reservations there are and how many are expected to pay 80K for a Cybertruck in 2024.

Given what Tesla knows, they expect that anyone willing to pay 80K for a Cybertruck who plunks down the $250 deposit is likely to get their Cybertruck in 2024.

If you think Tesla's statement just means delivery will start in 2024, then you are assuming that Tesla is lying and/or playing games and misleading its customers. From what I have seen, Tesla doesn't play silly sales games.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Haha, can you say 'whip-sawed'? TSLA went from well below the Lower-BB to the Upper-BB in 2 hrs 30 min of trading... "efficient markets"... jolly jokers

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Stay Classy Biden, stay classy.

Even though this was last year, this would explain all the attacks, FUD generation and just plain corruption to try to stop Elon's companies by all means necessary.

Breakdown by STMP:

 

[Usain]

The statement is in regard to those with reservations, not those who have placed orders. You are comparing an order estimate to a statement found on a reservation page. Apples/Oranges.

When Tesla tells someone ordering a vehicle that their delivery will be between December and March, you can count on it.

When they tell reservation holders that deliveries will begin in 2014, they mean that once a reservation is converted to an order those deliveries will be provided a tighter date range, just as they have always done with orders for every model they sell.

For example, early reservation holders who were offered and accepted to place a CT Foundation ORDER are being given a tighter date range for delivery of their order.

All that "deliveries begin in 2014" means is that once orders are placed (from the queue of existing reservations) those orders will begin delivery in 2024. This is a fact, unambiguous, and in no way misleading.

"Deliveries in 2024" doesn't say in any way, shape, or form that someone placing a reservation now can expect delivery in 2024.

Tesla is not lying when they say this. They aren't telling anyone placing a reservation today to expect to be converted to an order and have their delivery be sometime in 2014.

Those whose current reservations are converted to orders can expect them to be delivered in 2024.

Those orders will come from the beginning of the reservation queue and will be provided a delivery date in 2024.

You are misrepresenting what the web site actually says. Go to tesla.com/cybertruck.

There is a button that says, "Order now". "Oder now" means order now. It doesn't mean place a hopeful reservation. It means order now.

Then if you look at AWD or Cyberbeast it says, "Delivery in 2024". It doesn't say, "Deliveries for this model start in 2024". It says, "Delivery in 2024".

So, Tesla expects that if you "Order now", you are putting down your $250 deposit and Tesla expects that you will have "Delivery in 2024".

How can anyone think this means something other than what Tesla plainly says?

 

[Artful Dodger]

we have no visibility into it's Research projects.

You've forgotten about Dr. Jeff Dahn, and his critical battery chemistry research. We get enormous technical insight into current research projects, and frequent results through scientific papers and public lectures.

Jeff Dahn - Google Scholar Citations​

Luckily, Tesla has renewed their sponsorship of his lab at Dalhousie in Halifax for a 2nd 5-yr term. This will be super-important when Tesla begins selling Model 2 in India with +55C daytime high temps. Yeah, Jeff Dahn is testing a promisting battery chemistry at +70C ATM

FSD Beta development (especially the tech talks on Youtube like the ones from Andrei Karpathy and CYVR 2023) is extremely well-covered. We all follow it like a soap opera, but that's another topic...

Elon told us back at the 2018 AGM, 'if I were a TSLA investor, the two things I would watch are batteries and full self-driving'. They're giving us ample info, if you follow the topic.

 

[colettimj]

Exactly. Imagine driving around in an EV and having to rely on something else than the supercharging network.

Mototrend posted an article yesterday comparing a road trip in a Rivian R1T and an almost identical trip in a Model Y.

Tesla Model Y Yearlong Review: Superchargers Make the Difference

Not really surprising, but....
"In total, we spent 54 minutes of our road trip charging the Tesla at three different locations. The Rivian also required three stops at different locations, but because of malfunctioning chargers, we spent 1 hour and 9 minutes actually charging.

As a result, the entire trip took just under eight and a half hours in the Tesla compared to nearly 11 hours in the Rivian, and it's all down to the locations of the charging stations, the number of working chargers at each station, and the reliability of the individual chargers. The third-party networks effectively added two and a half hours to the trip between driving to them, waiting for them to become available, restarting their chargers, and the traffic that built up during all that downtime. We even made an extra stop for lunch in the Tesla after the second charging stop whereas we'd combined lunch and a charging stop in the Rivian to save time."

 

[GOVA]

Dr. Jeff Hahn,

Dahn?

 

[AudubonB]

I just heard @GOVA say

“Oh, Dahn it all!”

 

[mongo]

You are misrepresenting what the web site actually says. Go to tesla.com/cybertruck.

There is a button that says, "Order now". "Oder now" means order now. It doesn't mean place a hopeful reservation. It means order now.

Then if you look at AWD or Cyberbeast it says, "Delivery in 2024". It doesn't say, "Deliveries for this model start in 2024". It says, "Delivery in 2024".

So, Tesla expects that if you "Order now", you are putting down your $250 deposit and Tesla expects that you will have "Delivery in 2024".

How can anyone think this means something other than what Tesla plainly says?

If you click the "Order Now" button, it takes you to a page that says "Reserve Now"

And the Pre-Order Agreement says (along other things)

You understand that Tesla may not have completed the development of Cybertruck or begun manufacturing. Cybertruck at the time you entered into this Agreement and so we do not guarantee when your Vehicle will actually be delivered. Your actual delivery date is dependent on many factors, including your Vehicle’s configuration and manufacturing availability.

Clicking and submitting explicitly does not guarantee delivery next year (or any specific time frame). Same as it ever was.