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The point is obvious: there is absolutely zero chance that the U.S. Federal NHTSA allows open source code sold as home-made kits to drive on public highways as Level 3 Autonomy.

ZERO.
trying to understand how comm.ai succeeds in the market ... forget regulations ?

from their website comma.ai — make driving chill

"we have 100+ million miles driven and 10k users."
"360° VISION W/ 3 CAMERAS "
(seems to me 3 cameras does not get the job done )

how much compute do they have ? ... this looks like it is for hobbyists what am i missing they don't have scale or the fleet

they may be an acquisition target ... but FSD looks like winner takes most ... and likely a china version of FSD .. where does that leave comma.ai?
 
Looks like we are back on the right track SP wise.
It always takes time for wall st analysts to really internalize any change to their thinking. There are a bunch of analysts who have had, in their mind for a very long time, that Tesla is an upstart, and that when GM and Ford and Toyota start making EVs, the TSLA bubble will burst and we will see sanity return. To be fair to them, being that conservative in their thinking has probably worked many times in the past. There was ZERO history of plucky upstart car companies upturning the industry. That sort of thing happened in the tech world, not in the serious world of metal-bashing.

Once you have that mindset, there was tons of supporting evidence. Even the US president agreed that GM was leading in EVs. Clearly the F150 lightning was going to sell more than some promised, but not delivered 'cybertruck'. Meanwhile Tesla sold a relatively small amount of cars to niche wealthy eco-zealots from california.

The collapse of that world view is long overdue, but it might be finally starting. GM have basically failed to scale EVs, Ford have had the same problem. Toyota are nowhere, and meanwhile that plucky upstart EV maker is heading closer to 2 million units a year. And the vaporware cybertruck is actually a real thing on US roads.

The cybertruck has been a long time coming. The 4680 battery has been a long time coming. It feels like both are about to become real. The first time Tesla does a production/delivery report with the cybetruck included will be a significant moment. The 100,000th cybetruck will be another.

As always, FSD and Optimus are wild cards. So is next gen vehicle. And also be aware that as climate change intensifies, calls to shift faster to both renewable energy (megapack!) and EVs (everything!) will also intensify around the world. Frankly it feels like cheating to own TSLA stock right now. Its as close to a one way bet as you can get.
I still think the actual CT delivery day will be a big stock jump. (or a few days later). I'm hoping 250 before Nov 30th, 300 by year end. 400 next year-end?
 
After a walk around my office parking lot(5 buildings) in NJ this am ... i am happy to report Model Y's are multiplying like rabbits ... white ones , blue ones , red ones , black ones, gray ones ... starting to look like silicon valley in NJ in terms of Tesla penetration

it is indeed a sight to behold :cool:

one other point .. this is in stark contrast to late 2019 ... my company has recently instituted back to office ... back then only a handful of MS/MX/M3 .. and i knew them all

more Teslas sells more Teslas
 
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trying to understand how comm.ai succeeds in the market ... forget regulations ?

from their website comma.ai — make driving chill

"we have 100+ million miles driven and 10k users."
"360° VISION W/ 3 CAMERAS "
(seems to me 3 cameras does not get the job done )

how much compute do they have ? ... this looks like it is for hobbyists what am i missing they don't have scale or the fleet

they may be an acquisition target ... but FSD looks like winner takes most ... and likely a china version of FSD .. where does that leave comma.ai?
You are basically correct. Tesla is the overwhelming favorite.

But comma.ai has been doing end-to-end neural nets from the beginning. It's possible that 3 cameras actually does get the job done. Humans only have two cameras with some limited mobility. I'm not sure if the comma.ai camera coverage is as good as humans, but it might be.

While comma.ai is unlikely to hit Level 3 on city streets in the near future, I think they could let you take a nap on the highway relatively soon. Again, this would be with a hacked version of the software so that the driver is taking on the liability.
 
I don't remember any facts so I never engage... also I don't like talking to people, especially those that are coming with those biases but I might just start ... to let bard do the talking for me right on the spot. It does do more harm for the mission letting them go home without questioning their "facts".

A few questions I just asked it.

can the current us electric grid support 100% ev​

Yes, the current US electric grid can support 100% electric vehicles (EVs). However, it will require some upgrades and changes to the way the grid is operated.

According to a study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the US electricity grid has enough capacity to support 100% EVs by 2030. However, the study also found that the grid will need to be upgraded to accommodate the increased demand. This includes building new transmission lines, upgrading substations, and adding more renewable energy generation.
....

does manufacturing and use of EV create more co2 than gas cars?​


The manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) does create more CO2 than the manufacturing of gas cars. This is due to the energy-intensive process of manufacturing EV batteries. However, over the lifetime of the vehicle, EVs produce significantly less CO2 than gas cars.

A study by the Union of Concerned Scientists found that the average EV produces about 40% less CO2 than a comparable gas car over its lifetime. This number is even higher in areas with cleaner electricity grids.

Another study by the International Council on Clean Transportation found that EVs produce less CO2 than gas cars in every country in the world, even when accounting for the manufacturing and charging emissions.

Overall, EVs are better for the environment than gas cars. While the manufacturing of EVs does create more CO2, EVs produce significantly less CO2 over their lifetime.

...

----

You do have to verify Bard. I've had it straight up make up stuff for something as easy as giving me the matches for week 1 NFL.

Yeah, there are a number of articles that debunk many of the "Oh Noes!.. The Grid!!" talking points:





But what I find particularly interesting is that, although the overall net electricity usage may go up, the managability effort and electricity prices may go DOWN by evening out the demand curve.

Given that electricity generation must exactly match demand, the minimum (nighttime average) daily usage can be supplied by "baseload generation", which is highly efficient, but difficult to ramp quickly in order to meet demand spikes. Think nuclear or hydro.

In order to meet the mid-day usage peaks, utilities rely on "peaker plants", which can ramp quickly, but are less efficient in terms of generation and overall utilization, and thus more expensive per unit generated. Natural gas plants for example.

So if EVs that typically charge at night, even though they provide additional load, offset the typical air-conditioning usage at mid-day, then the overall load is flatter. That means more of the daily needs can be supplied by the cheaper baseload plants... less peaker plant generation means overall energy generation energy cost decreases.

What's more, typical peaker plants burning natural gas or coal are being supplanted by solar and storage. And while, yes, more baseload generation may need to be built, with the falling solar/storage prices it will likely become feasible to use that for new baseload demandas well... compounding the generation cost reduction...
 
Now, this is prompt, direct and effective sales/marketing. 💪

Tesla is quick with the follow-up on the price reduction of the Model Y as mentioned yesterday.
Received this e-mail today:

Text, translated from Dutch:
Now available from €44,990
You can now design and order Model Y from €44,990, making the model eligible for an additional SEPP subsidy of up to €2,950.
Model Y is the best-selling vehicle in Europe. Design yours or take a test drive at a time that suits you.



Screenshot 2023-11-02 at 15.28.26.png
 
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Is it still zero sales tax for all EVs regardless of their prices in NJ?
Yes. No sales tax and EV's are north of 13% in NJ. Just waiting for the politicians to wake up in Trenton.

Also, the gas tax is adjusted to bring in a fixed amount as the volume of gas declines, although recently with covid there were tax increases and then decrease as the volume came back.


They have created a nice reinforcing loop, more EV's, increased gas price, more EV's!
 
Yeah, NJ has an awesome EV/ICE feedback loop where ICE vehicles are effectively subsidizing EVs between the no sales tax (new and used) and incentives up to $4,000 (tiered based on MSRP of up to $45k and up to $55k), meanwhile in places like TN my parents got a tax bill for their Tesla at time of registration renewal as some highway tax since they are not contributing to the gas tax.

M3 RWD

1698938604476.png
 
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While comma.ai is unlikely to hit Level 3 on city streets in the near future, I think they could let you take a nap on the highway relatively soon. Again, this would be with a hacked version of the software so that the driver is taking on the liability.
What you describe is Darwin award worthy (see bold above)
 
Is it still zero sales tax for all EVs regardless of their prices in NJ?
Yes.
Us folks from New Hampster have to go to Paramus NJ to pick up our Tesla to avoid sales tax such as charged in nearby MA.
Or pay a $750 delivery charge these days. Got mine when delivery was free!
Tesla is building a service center in Manchester NH but this has been going slowly for years.