Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stretch2727]

I saw this and was quite surprised. A 65% of franchised dealerships refuse to sell a used EV. Their policy is to wholesale them.

They use "battery history" as an excuse but most are still under the original manufacturers 8 year warranty.

Used BEVs: Another Storm Cloud Ahead for Mass BEV Adoption

Used-BEV values are dropping like stones and over half of franchised dealers are refusing to retail them. Is this a momentary blip or does it indicate another roadblock to mass adoption, with many banks questioning residual values before welcoming BEVs as a substantial percentage of a loan...

www.wardsauto.com

These are the same dealers that are likely holding back legacy automakers new EV sales.

There is probably a business opportunity here.

 

[MP3Mike]

I think next year when the $7500 rebate becomes point-of-sale then Bolts could be much more popular. Buyers at that price point are extremely sensitive to monthly payment.

But it looks like GM won't make that many Bolts next year because of the refresh. Even after the refresh they might hold back if they can't get costs down.

Yeah, I don't think they will be selling many Bolts next year. (Unless they are just old stock sitting on a dealer lot.) From what I have seen they are selling everyone they can make, but they only have so many batteries available, and they only need so many ZEV credits to offset the ICE vehicles they sell.

Aren't they stopping Bolt EV production in December? And then it sounds like they will take a year, or two, to Ultiumize the Bolt EV before they start making it again.

 

[EQC_]

I think next year when the $7500 rebate becomes point-of-sale then Bolts could be much more popular. Buyers at that price point are extremely sensitive to monthly payment.

But it looks like GM won't make that many Bolts next year because of the refresh. Even after the refresh they might hold back if they can't get costs down.

Agreed, especially on your second point -- Sales of the Bolt and "competitor" EVs will always be capped by how many the company is willing and able to make. A big reason why the Model Y, at roughly twice the price, sells 20x more than the Chevy Bolt is because Tesla can and does produce 20x as many of them. (Of course, assorted vehicle features and details are a big reason too.) Even if an updated/refreshed Bolt comes out with enhanced design and specs and a $25K price, if they are still only building it on a 50,000 per year line and only have access to 50,000 vehicles worth of battery cells, it can't sell more than 50,000 per year. Doesn't matter what the demand is if the supply is limited...

This is a big thing that the anti-Tesla/anti-Elon/EV FUD media can't seem to understand. Many articles on, for example, Jalopnik (where they really hate Elon and Tesla in a mindless cult-like way) will exaggerate some new objectionable "news" about Elon or Tesla, and then whine about why anybody would buy a Tesla when there are "so many alternatives" available. Sure, there are plenty of other EV *models* available, but no other manufacturer can (or is willing to) manufacture and sell Tesla-like numbers (except perhaps Chinese companies that don't sell in the US.) So, if Tesla suddenly stopped selling 1.8 million Teslas per year, there just aren't other options to fill the gap. GM can't suddenly up Bolt production by 10x. Kia/Hyundai also can't up production by 10x without significant time and expense. Factories have to be built/upgraded, supply chains built up, etc.

Tesla is just the only company that actually planned to built EV's in 500,000+ numbers annually, so they are the only one that does. Everybody else is limited by their own plans (and of course design/engineering capabilities, etc.)...and thus far, all of those plans target notably smaller numbers.

You'd think supposed auto experts, journalists, and so-called analysts would have this basic understanding...but they don't, and they keep drumming on the "competitors are coming" or "you don't have to buy a Tesla! Toyota has an EV now and they made several dozen of them!" nonsense.

 

[ZeApelido]

Don't laugh.

“Tesla Needs To Close The Gap With Us," Says BMW On New Cylindrical Battery Cells

The first samples of BMW's new batteris started rolling off the production line at the company’s cell manufacturing complex in Germany.

insideevs.com

 

[GrandEnigma]

Don't laugh.

“Tesla Needs To Close The Gap With Us," Says BMW On New Cylindrical Battery Cells

The first samples of BMW's new batteris started rolling off the production line at the company’s cell manufacturing complex in Germany.

insideevs.com

It's finally coming?

 

[MountainRatMat]

I saw this and was quite surprised. A 65% of franchised dealerships refuse to sell a used EV. Their policy is to wholesale them.

They use "battery history" as an excuse but most are still under the original manufacturers 8 year warranty.

Used BEVs: Another Storm Cloud Ahead for Mass BEV Adoption

Used-BEV values are dropping like stones and over half of franchised dealers are refusing to retail them. Is this a momentary blip or does it indicate another roadblock to mass adoption, with many banks questioning residual values before welcoming BEVs as a substantial percentage of a loan...

www.wardsauto.com

These are the same dealers that are likely holding back legacy automakers new EV sales.

There is probably a business opportunity here.

This is just silly, are Tesla's not BEV's?

Only anecdotal but I see used Tesla's for sale at dealers all the time.

The article should say dealers are refusing to sell non-Tesla BEV's.

Oh look, AutoNation has 114 for sale right now with a quick search. To be fair they also have a lot of Mercedes, Audi, and Porsche EV's for sale as well.

 

[ggies07]

Don't laugh.

“Tesla Needs To Close The Gap With Us," Says BMW On New Cylindrical Battery Cells

The first samples of BMW's new batteris started rolling off the production line at the company’s cell manufacturing complex in Germany.

insideevs.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

Is she sure it was in driverless mode?

Oh, you mean on R/C? No way of knowing is there?

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's finally coming?

BMW says they'll start delivering these new cells 2 years from now. So we'll see who's catching who.

"With all this being said, however, BMW’s new cells aren’t quite ready for prime time yet. For now, sample units are being manufactured at the company’s own facility, with delivery-intent cells slated to be made at up to six battery gigafactories around the world by BMW’s suppliers CATL and Eve Energy starting in 2025. That’s when the first series-production EVs based on the Neue Klasse architecture are set to debut."​

 

[navguy12]

Do they factor in the electricity cost of refining petrol/diesel? I asked ChatGPT a series of questions:

How much electricity does it take to refine a gallon of gas?​

​

The amount of electricity required to refine a gallon of gas can vary depending on several factors, such as the specific refining processes, technology used, and the efficiency of the refining facility. On average, it's estimated that refining a gallon of gasoline consumes about 6 kWh (kilowatt-hours) of electricity. However, this value can fluctuate across different refineries and their operational practices.​

​

How far will an EV go on 6kWh?​

​

The distance an electric vehicle (EV) can travel on 6 kWh of electricity varies widely depending on the car's efficiency, battery capacity, and driving conditions. On average, an EV might travel roughly 20-25 miles on 6 kWh of electricity. However, this can fluctuate significantly based on factors such as the vehicle's energy consumption rate, driving speed, weather, terrain, and other variables.​

​

What’s the average fuels consumption of a family car?​

​

The average fuel consumption of a family car can range between 25 to 30 miles per gallon (MPG) for a combined city and highway driving cycle. However, this can vary widely based on the car's make, model, engine size, driving habits, and road conditions. Some smaller, more fuel-efficient cars might achieve higher MPG, while larger or less efficient vehicles might have lower fuel economy.​

Now I'm no mathematician, but it seems to me that although the distribution infrastructure may need to be upgraded over time, the electricity itself basically comes free...

About two(ish) years ago, using Exxon’s own information of how much grid electricity is used to refine a barrel of oil, I figured 30% of all the electricity generated in Texas is used to refine oil and posted all of my math, with the USEIA and Exxon data used for same, on this thread.

IIRC, it was @mongo who originally found and posted the obscure Exxon data.

 

[navguy12]

There's been multiple runs at How To Fund All Those Roads When There's No Gas-Powered Vehicles Any more. Charging an average fee (possibly based upon weight) at once-a-year registration time is one of those ideas. There's also a pay-as-you-go mileage tax approach. The Eastern Coalition MBUF (Mileage Based User Fee) trials took a lot of data and surveys, but it means getting accurate vehicle miles to do it. I think Virginia has gone that route.

I’ve said many times, just fund roads out of general income taxes and get rid of road taxes on all energy sources.

Doesn't matter if someone doesn’t own a vehicle, every citizen profits from having a functioning road system; the food in their refrigerator travelled, at some point, from field to market via the road system.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Panama Canal might be restricting ships due to insufficient water to operate some locks (gravity fed from freshwater lake, 30-50? million gallons used on each passage). Lake provides drinking water & important environment so cannot be drained too far.

Not sure what effect this might have on on Tesla as a company, macro or stock markets (TSLA), but a heads-up. There were serious problems a while ago due to delays from Brexit changes and far greater global effect from Covid (eg. Los Angeles & Shanghai ports).

Conflicts & problems along other routes add to difficulties, especially for Liquified Petroleum/Natural Gas & similar bulk carriers that can't split loads or use Panama rail links to other side of the Canal. I don't know if Tesla use this route for Car Carriers eg 3, X or S to Europe or eastern North America.

Adds time, cost & risk depending on route. Longer time per trip leads to ships being tied up for longer. These issues affect ports used, rail, road & shipping capacity - therefore cost in terms of money and time.

5-6 days delay currently, Not ideal leading up to Christmas - peak shopping season?

Might affect military vessels also.

Or it might rain & problem disappears, but I suspect it might take a while even with heavy rain. Inadequate water supply might be affected by climate change, so there is a risk of this happening regularly.

Additional recycling of water is planned in the future.

Spoiler: Images-Charts

Neo-Panamax on right of image

 

[Max Plaid]

Hopefully, this has some meaning for the TSLA share price...
View attachment 987299

Hey, that reminds me, where the hell is that Burnt Hair I ordered is many months back? I think they delivered in the US, but not overseas yet??

Ah, OK, checked my email and...

 

[cliff harris]

BMW says they'll start delivering these new cells 2 years from now. So we'll see who's catching who.

"With all this being said, however, BMW’s new cells aren’t quite ready for prime time yet. For now, sample units are being manufactured at the company’s own facility, with delivery-intent cells slated to be made at up to six battery gigafactories around the world by BMW’s suppliers CATL and Eve Energy starting in 2025. That’s when the first series-production EVs based on the Neue Klasse architecture are set to debut."​

I can just imagine the top people at CATL, looking at the global BEV market, and BMW and calculating the odds that BMW is even in existence as a BEV player in 2025, and replying to their emails with "Yes, absolutely, we are totally setting aside production capacity for you in 2025. Trust us."
When Tesla will buy any batteries anyone will make, and when Tesla's credit rating is... shall we say *pretty good*, I don't think BMW's intentions are worth much.

 

[hobbes]

Panama Canal might be restricting ships due to insufficient water to operate some locks (gravity fed from freshwater lake, 30-50? million gallons used on each passage). Lake provides drinking water & important environment so cannot be drained too far.

Not sure what effect this might have on on Tesla as a company, macro or stock markets (TSLA), but a heads-up. There were serious problems a while ago due to delays from Brexit changes and far greater global effect from Covid (eg. Los Angeles & Shanghai ports).

Conflicts & problems along other routes add to difficulties, especially for Liquified Petroleum/Natural Gas & similar bulk carriers that can't split loads or use Panama rail links to other side of the Canal. I don't know if Tesla use this route for Car Carriers eg 3, X or S to Europe or eastern North America.

Adds time, cost & risk depending on route. Longer time per trip leads to ships being tied up for longer. These issues affect ports used, rail, road & shipping capacity - therefore cost in terms of money and time.

5-6 days delay currently, Not ideal leading up to Christmas - peak shopping season?

Might affect military vessels also.

Or it might rain & problem disappears, but I suspect it might take a while even with heavy rain. Inadequate water supply might be affected by climate change, so there is a risk of this happening regularly.

Additional recycling of water is planned in the future.

Spoiler: Images-Charts

View attachment 987363

View attachment 987364

Neo-Panamax on right of image
View attachment 987366
View attachment 987370

IIRC everything for Europe comes from Giga Berlin or Shanghai, except for S/X from Fremont which don´t contribute much to revenue though. @Troy definitely knows more, maybe he can chime in.. S/X for Asia goes east from the US west coast, so is not affected.

 

[Todd Burch]

BMW says they'll start delivering these new cells 2 years from now. So we'll see who's catching who.

"With all this being said, however, BMW’s new cells aren’t quite ready for prime time yet. For now, sample units are being manufactured at the company’s own facility, with delivery-intent cells slated to be made at up to six battery gigafactories around the world by BMW’s suppliers CATL and Eve Energy starting in 2025. That’s when the first series-production EVs based on the Neue Klasse architecture are set to debut."​

I was literally about to post the same clip. Because we all know ramping battery production is fast and easy, right? C'mon BMW, you're not fooling anyone.

 

[UkNorthampton]

IIRC everything for Europe comes from Giga Berlin or Shanghai, except for S/X from Fremont which don´t contribute much to revenue though. @Troy definitely knows more, maybe he can chime in.. S/X for Asia goes east from the US west coast, so is not affected.

China to Europe for Model 3 - yes of course. Bit sleep deprived. I think less of a direct effect on Tesla and more of an effect on stock markets.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

$TSLA down 1.8% AH due to $APPL missing earnings because they are so closely related

 

[ggr]

ESPP plans typically have limitations on how much can be purchased.

The obviously optimal strategy is to max out the ESPP investment, and then if you want more, buy more.

 

[Knightshade]

Yeah, I don't think they will be selling many Bolts next year. (Unless they are just old stock sitting on a dealer lot.) From what I have seen they are selling everyone they can make, but they only have so many batteries available, and they only need so many ZEV credits to offset the ICE vehicles they sell.

Aren't they stopping Bolt EV production in December? And then it sounds like they will take a year, or two, to Ultiumize the Bolt EV before they start making it again.

Correct on both counts AFAIK--- Bolt sales are production, not demand, limited... on slickdeals there's plenty of folks in Bolt deal threads lamenting their inability to find say a base model either at all, or anywhere near MSRP since there's so few available vs folks willing to buy them.... Generally they understand it's mainly a local-drive car vs a Tesla but they're fine with a local econo box for (if you can find a base model) around 20k (or less with state incentives)--- and production ends this year, with a "new" bolt still years off from everything I've read.