Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FreqFlyer]

Good point about Highland.

I don’t recall Elon saying next gen car wouldn’t be ‘very special’. He said it was going to be utilitarian. The definition of that word is; designed to be useful and practical rather than attractive. But then he went on to clarify the attractive part so people wouldn’t get all up in arms that it would look like a Yugo or some such.

The next gen vehicle will have the trademark Tesla sleek look to it, it simply won’t have the cyber look. And it’ll be just as special as every vehicle lade by Tesla.

Tesla's Next-Gen EV 'Much More Conventional' Than Cybertruck, Musk Says

Musk said Tesla is doing everything to simplify the next-gen car "in order to achieve a units-per-minute level that is unheard of in the auto industry."

insideevs.com

 

[Krugerrand]

Even more wow from the day before, how are we not talking about this?

Wall Street suddenly swoons on mixed earnings and a sharp jump in the oil price overnight after the Gaza hospital explosion

The S&P 500 was 0.8% lower in midday trading. The Dow was down 171 points, or 0.5%, as of 11 a.m. ET, and the Nasdaq composite was 1% lower.

fortune.com

So talk.

The world is in a continuous heap of upheaval and excrement, and Wallstreet is making bank on the back of it. SSDD

 

[Artful Dodger]

Predictions on the low over the next 6 months? I say 150.

So to be clear, you're suggesting we may retest the Q2 low? From Apr 27, 2023:

That's actually pretty typical volatility for TSLA. I think 2024 Guidance will be important, that's most likely to come at the Q4 Earnings Call in Jan 2024.

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

Does it though?

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Now- I'm sure you can post some data suggesting the opposite- as you claimed- but your THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED bit just ain't so.



Edit to reflect that you seem to think it IS settled because "My studies, linked previously, say the opposite, and there are more of them."

I mean, in the 1960s I bet I could find you "more of them" saying smoking is good for you and oil isn't causing climate change too.

I'm not sure 'quantity" is the best decider of scientific study accuracy.

Ok, then. Since you’ve effectively proven that no studies can ever be taken as fact, everyone, including you, can stop linking to studies forever as proof of anything and everything. From now on anecdotal evidence is all we need.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Per the Earnings Call, how far has the Gen 3 car deviated from this, or maybe not.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The overall economy is doing pretty damn well already, even with "high" rates. Other manufacturers are doing quite well, at a higher average price. So no, the issue is tesla specific.

You are a low post-count commenter, so I'll grant you the benefit of the doubt and assume you get all of your auto industry info from PR departments.

Except not the info about canceling factories (VW Wolfsburg, Ford Bty Plant ), delaying new products by years (GM Silverado), or cutting production on massively unprofitable products (Ford F-150 EV).

None of the above includes an estimate of how much addtional expense other manufacturers will incur in ZEV credits and/or fines for reduced EV production. The EU keeps track, though.

 

[lafrisbee]

On the call, Elon said

This does sound very much like they are voluntarily holding back, no? At least from here on, so technically you might be correct for what has happened so far.

When Mexico land was bought and the reason production remained at less than zero I started "seeing something." I even made comments how it was turning in to German, and the most amazing thing I was seeing in mexico was the lack of everything. I have no inside anything, not even any formal edumacation in finance. But what I was figuring out was something not good was happening. I had no idea Tesla was pulling back on the reins of the mexican Hay burner (Boy's Life's Pedro reference for my fellow scouts from the 1970's).

 

[Krugerrand]

Um, from the call last night? Elon clearly said to not expect 50% CAGR for the near future as they slow production ramps in both Berlin and Austin because he is uncertain of the economy for the near future. He wants to pause the ramps until rates come back down. I believe he even said something like "we don't want to accelerate production ramps into an uncertain economy" or something like that.

Note this is auto production I'm talking about, not total production including energy.

Not to be mean but you DID listen to the call, right?

Go back and reread what you posted. And then put the goalposts back.

I’ll help you out; As Tesla auto production slows down quite a bit over the next two years Tesla energy will be ramping very nicely.

Now my audio did cut out a number of times so maybe I missed the part where Elon said ‘auto production slows down quite a bit over the next two years.’

You realize 49% is less than 50% right? You realize that they just did factory shutdowns, sacrificing production in Q3 and all the associated financial results of that, to increase line production and efficiencies going forward right? You realize Tesla is no more static than the economy right?

Let’s stick to facts. Tesla reiterated 1.8m guidance for the year, which means they plan to INCREASE car production for this quarter. It doesn’t actually matter the percentage of that increase. It only matters that they continue to expand in a responsible, healthy financial manner given the current economic environment.

I’ll leave you to correct the Megapack portion of your post because you have no idea how much expansion will take place because Tesla didn’t actually say. All the CFO did was give a cautionary statement about the lumpy deployment of Megapacks so people (like you) don’t get all excited and extrapolate some made up metrics going forward so they can be disappointed that Megapack margins contributed less to the bottom line in the following quarter.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Mexico's buildout is delayed and Berlin seems stalled in it's ramp, so for 2025 we're likely only going to see a bit more production than 2024

It's entirely possible that, if the Gen 3 pilot works out well in Austin, then the already-built but now-idle space inside Giga Berlin could re-allocated for Gen 3 production.

A Euro-sized sedan in 2025 would be a giant hit (easily selling 750K), and would sidestep any potential EU tariffs against Made in China EVs.

Something to thing about anyway, which Team Tesla does constantly.

 

[FreqFlyer]

I rather have Elon being somber and realistic about the consumer market and the company's production goals than some of the idealism and fairytales I read here.

Today the stock price was going to drop 20 points anyway no matter how professional or polished Elon may have been.

Elon has stated they are not going max production in this consumer environment. I find that refreshing and mature for the company and confidence inspiring. Elon came across as someone who knows what the consumer on the street is feeling. Elon may actually know what a gallon of milk costs. Its as if he actually walks down Airport Blvd, Anderson Mill Rd or MLK Blvd in Austin, or spent time at Killeen/ Ft Hood, where he is busing hundreds of employees to work at the Austin factory and has a pulse of what people are going through.

And of course Elon is sandbagging a bit. I expect a blow out fourth quarter as China starts pumping out Highland M3s like nobody's business, and worldwide Model Y production stays steady or increase a little, and yes more price "adjustments".

 

[GOVA]

It was an excellent call. Nobody lied and all that was presented was very important. People need to grow a pair and not expect only lies and rosy stories to make their expectations fulfilled. If you can't handle the truth (SIC) go buy Nikola stock and live a happy life. Trevon will say what you want to hear and more.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla's Next-Gen EV 'Much More Conventional' Than Cybertruck, Musk Says

Musk said Tesla is doing everything to simplify the next-gen car "in order to achieve a units-per-minute level that is unheard of in the auto industry."

insideevs.com

Do you think that media article proved your point?

When did Elon say not ‘very special’? He said ‘cool’ and ‘sleek’ and ‘utilitarian’.

 

[Drumheller]

Do you think people negative on Elon would actually go to a Tesla showroom?

Did you read my post? Second person to comment this as if I didn't write that very comment in post.

 

[larmor]

Remember that UAW strike which is killing the coming to market Tesla Killers? Hmm, seems to not be that important since tesla slowed down to improve thre factory, which in most companies means lower costs. But I could be mistaken, and some companies spend extra capital to make their product more expensive, such as the defense industry.

Getting to break even for a brand new car by production in 18 months is astounding. What about break even times in regular businesses that makes widgets or durable goods or provide services?

Also just a reminder, please cancel your cybertruck reservation, my friend keeps asking me.

 

[Hiline]

Elon has stated they are not going max production in this consumer environment. I find that refreshing and mature for the company and confidence inspiring. Elon came across as someone who knows what the consumer on the street is feeling.

See, the problem with this is that I thought Tesla was willing to sell cars at $0 profit in order to scale production quickly and bring prices down. This strategy was going to make Tesla cars price-competitive soon against gasoline cars. What Elon Musk said yesterday is a change of tune from what he had claimed on the call 3 months ago. Slowing down production scaling is going to allow competitors to catch up.

 

[lafrisbee]

Ok OK stop.
CYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR(nota)TRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRUCK is coming.
Stock priced be damned. I am like a sharecropper's child at Christmas. The world can be going to hell, I am focused on that one small thing that will make life worth living. Santa Elon is coming to town.

 

[MD70]

I find it ridiculous that priority is not been given to the next generation vehicle. Irrespective of the state of the economy a ~$25K vehicle will sell in huge numbers outside the USA alone.
Initially it can be made in Berlin, Shanghai and Texas and then later the Mexico factory so no need to worry about the costs of getting a new factory.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Go back and reread what you posted. And then put the goalposts back.

I’ll help you out; As Tesla auto production slows down quite a bit over the next two years Tesla energy will be ramping very nicely.

Now my audio did cut out a number of times so maybe I missed the part where Elon said ‘auto production slows down quite a bit over the next two years.’

You realize 49% is less than 50% right? You realize that they just did factory shutdowns, sacrificing production in Q3 and all the associated financial results of that, to increase line production and efficiencies going forward right? You realize Tesla is no more static than the economy right?

Let’s stick to facts. Tesla reiterated 1.8m guidance for the year, which means they plan to INCREASE car production for this quarter. It doesn’t actually matter the percentage of that increase. It only matters that they continue to expand in a responsible, healthy financial manner given the current economic environment.

I’ll leave you to correct the Megapack portion of your post because you have no idea how much expansion will take place because Tesla didn’t actually say. All the CFO did was give a cautionary statement about the lumpy deployment of Megapacks so people (like you) don’t get all excited and extrapolate some made up metrics going forward so they can be disappointed that Megapack margins contributed less to the bottom line in the following quarter.

Q3, 2022 Elon - "We anticipate continuing to grow our vehicle production sales deliveries...on average 50% a year as far into the future as we can see."

Q3, 2023 Elon - "It's not possible to have a compound growth rate of 50% forever."

 

[Artful Dodger]

We tried to listen to it in the car on the way home from the dog park. Horrible sound quality. A heavily accented fellow came on and with the poor audio could barely discern he was speaking English. Got home and found it on YouTube on our flat screen with soundbar - still awful. Gave up and figured I’d get the highlights here - which is what I’m doing now.

There's a fixed audio version of the Q3 Conf. Call now on Youtube:

Tesla Q3 2023 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast (Full Audio) | Tesla

 

[Darkfox021]

I find it ridiculous that priority is not been given to the next generation vehicle. Irrespective of the state of the economy a ~$25K vehicle will sell in huge numbers outside the USA alone.
Initially it can be made in Berlin, Shanghai and Texas and then later the Mexico factory so no need to worry about the costs of getting a new factory.

Priority means what?

A $25k vehicle, selling in huge numbers, requires a huge amount of batteries. And a cost structure to support a sales price of $25k. This all doesn't just miraculously happen instantaneously because a $25k car will be the most important car to fuel the transition to EVs.