Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[winfield100]

As a follow-on:

Three wild speculations from amateur quantitative macrohistory

lukemuehlhauser.com

How big a deal was the Industrial Revolution?

lukemuehlhauser.com

Both are worth reading under the guise of all the manufacturing innovation going on thanks to Tesla. It might be rough right now, but think of how awesome this is going to continue to feel as we approach past the next 2-3 years?

Hopefully, its not all just hubris on our parts to out innovate our environment.

Carl Sagan's narration of "The Pale Blue Dot"

And also Eric Wernquists homage with Carl Sagan's narration of "Wanderers"

 

[unk45]

Nah. There’s a vendetta and a whole bunch of other things.

I’m privy to some new information about stuff I suspected (and others here have suspected), now entirely confirmed. Sorry, can not share details at this time. Let’s just say that the size of your account opens doors and gives access to people and resources otherwise not available to us plebes. They accidentally let a plebe enter and showed their hand. I may have told them to stuff it.

For context for those who've not been following this issue here for years:
- market makers write their own rules together with other direct market participants. There is no material regulation;
-the minimal regulation that does exist simply exacts nominal penalties for not following their own rules exactly;
-enforcement, insofar as it exists is mostly from the SEC, which from time to time penalizes 'programming mistakes' that miscategorizes trades, so...
-the penalties, when they happen at all, rarely exceed a few minutes profits from the miscatagorization;
-even short sales can be, for direct market participants, rolled over almost infinitely, but..
-if they get it wrong, they're market makers so they simply 'make the market' repair the damage.
-the higher the float from individual investors the better the odds are to manipulate without offending other participants. hence TSLA.
-the more the security represents a threat to major issuers of debt and equity the more incentive there si to manipulate.
The foregoing eight points have been applicable since the Depository Trust Company (DTC) was formed in 1973, accentuated to extremes by the slightly later advent of programmed trading. All the analytics and velocity calculations retail traders can invent and develop cannot change the fundamental constraint to individual invertor short term trading success. I will put this one in all caps, for it needs to be shouted!
MARKET MAKERS CONTROL AND EXECUTE BASED ON INSTANTANEOUS KNOWLEDGE OF ALL MARKET ACTIVITY. RETAIL INVESTORS NEVER HAVE ACCESS TO THAT ACCURACY AND PRE-KNOWLEDGE OF ORDERS AS ENTERED.
There si a reason the Citadels and others try to keep a very, very low public profile.
The corollary is about the world of securities lending: Nearly all major institutional investor and securities custodians make much of their revenues by securities lending. That includes nearly all the 'no-disclosed fee' brokers. That really means that every one of us who has a margin account, or any account at all with many brokers, has given the right to lend their own securities without, in most cases, and sharing of profits for that lending or even having it disclosed. In short, many of us HODL people are actually helping the shorts by lending our own shares without our own knowledge.

All this is perfectly legal. After all, in the USA the insiders write the rules. It is called 'self-governance'.
[we repost these points every couple of years because most retail investors have no idea at all. This is all public information, just obscure. For details an easy beginning is reading the DTC published rules. Warning: it is very, very boring and highly detailed.]

 

[unk45]

But but but Chinese wall!

Seriously, just read the DTC rules. No Chinese wall really exists now. Sorry for being serious.
sarcasm on this subject may be the only sane response./not s

 

[Unpilot]

Seriously, just read the DTC rules. No Chinese wall really exists now. Sorry for being serious.
sarcasm on this subject may be the only sane response./not s

When large (perhaps even obscene) profits are involved....expect crooks.
They will be in nice clothes and speak in a manner one does not associate with thief's....but make no mistake.

They are crooks.

 

[unk45]

I got one of those minimalistic EVs (in addition to the 2 Teslas in the garage, poor thing has to stay outside), although it is from Mitsubishi:
View attachment 800447
Been running for over 10 years now, range is very small (just a city runabout), but it is perfectly functional for local errands, shopping etc.

I recall driving with some Mitsubishi execs in an I-Miev in LA back when they were newish. Five of us, none small, rode in 'reasonable' comfort. That this was built form a Kei car base did make is very, very roomy for it's diminutive size. luckily we just going from Torrance to Matsuhisha, the original one in a converted deli.

About Us | Matsuhisa Beverly Hills

matsuhisabeverlyhills.com

It is quite amazing that with such approaches the Japanese all left it to Tesla to expand and perfect these products, even Toyota and mercedes with the Tesla powered Rav4 and Model B, both of which sold their TSLA shares at large profits, they thought. Even Mitsubishi fell into the Renault-Nissan-Samsung car maw so none of them took advantage of what should have been major leads. Somehow it is nearly inexplicable that Samsung SDI never had anything AT ALL to do with Samsung Auto, which ended out as badge engineered Nissans.
In the late 1980's early 1990's I was there in Torrance watching and helping as Acura, Lexus and Infiniti produced increasing bloat which totally ignoring the revolution that was soon to come. They were early but gave up when CARB let them do so.

We should all greatly appreciate JB Straubel and his li-ion fascination, Elon Musk for finding Toyota and Merceds Benz at crucial times and recruiting JB, and all the rest.

That I-Miev really showed the art of the possible long ago. Thanks for showing us!

 

[2daMoon]

When large (perhaps even obscene) profits are involved....expect crooks.
They will be in nice clothes and speak in a manner one does not associate with thief's....but make no mistake.

They are crooks.

 

[Krugerrand]

Is it time yet?

It is not.

 

[Krugerrand]

For context for those who've not been following this issue here for years:
- market makers write their own rules together with other direct market participants. There is no material regulation;
-the minimal regulation that does exist simply exacts nominal penalties for not following their own rules exactly;
-enforcement, insofar as it exists is mostly from the SEC, which from time to time penalizes 'programming mistakes' that miscategorizes trades, so...
-the penalties, when they happen at all, rarely exceed a few minutes profits from the miscatagorization;
-even short sales can be, for direct market participants, rolled over almost infinitely, but..
-if they get it wrong, they're market makers so they simply 'make the market' repair the damage.
-the higher the float from individual investors the better the odds are to manipulate without offending other participants. hence TSLA.
-the more the security represents a threat to major issuers of debt and equity the more incentive there si to manipulate.
The foregoing eight points have been applicable since the Depository Trust Company (DTC) was formed in 1973, accentuated to extremes by the slightly later advent of programmed trading. All the analytics and velocity calculations retail traders can invent and develop cannot change the fundamental constraint to individual invertor short term trading success. I will put this one in all caps, for it needs to be shouted!
MARKET MAKERS CONTROL AND EXECUTE BASED ON INSTANTANEOUS KNOWLEDGE OF ALL MARKET ACTIVITY. RETAIL INVESTORS NEVER HAVE ACCESS TO THAT ACCURACY AND PRE-KNOWLEDGE OF ORDERS AS ENTERED.
There si a reason the Citadels and others try to keep a very, very low public profile.
The corollary is about the world of securities lending: Nearly all major institutional investor and securities custodians make much of their revenues by securities lending. That includes nearly all the 'no-disclosed fee' brokers. That really means that every one of us who has a margin account, or any account at all with many brokers, has given the right to lend their own securities without, in most cases, and sharing of profits for that lending or even having it disclosed. In short, many of us HODL people are actually helping the shorts by lending our own shares without our own knowledge.

All this is perfectly legal. After all, in the USA the insiders write the rules. It is called 'self-governance'.
[we repost these points every couple of years because most retail investors have no idea at all. This is all public information, just obscure. For details an easy beginning is reading the DTC published rules. Warning: it is very, very boring and highly detailed.]

That too.

 

[Hock1]

For context for those who've not been following this issue here for years:
- market makers write their own rules together with other direct market participants. There is no material regulation;
-the minimal regulation that does exist simply exacts nominal penalties for not following their own rules exactly;
-enforcement, insofar as it exists is mostly from the SEC, which from time to time penalizes 'programming mistakes' that miscategorizes trades, so...
-the penalties, when they happen at all, rarely exceed a few minutes profits from the miscatagorization;
-even short sales can be, for direct market participants, rolled over almost infinitely, but..
-if they get it wrong, they're market makers so they simply 'make the market' repair the damage.
-the higher the float from individual investors the better the odds are to manipulate without offending other participants. hence TSLA.
-the more the security represents a threat to major issuers of debt and equity the more incentive there si to manipulate.
The foregoing eight points have been applicable since the Depository Trust Company (DTC) was formed in 1973, accentuated to extremes by the slightly later advent of programmed trading. All the analytics and velocity calculations retail traders can invent and develop cannot change the fundamental constraint to individual invertor short term trading success. I will put this one in all caps, for it needs to be shouted!
MARKET MAKERS CONTROL AND EXECUTE BASED ON INSTANTANEOUS KNOWLEDGE OF ALL MARKET ACTIVITY. RETAIL INVESTORS NEVER HAVE ACCESS TO THAT ACCURACY AND PRE-KNOWLEDGE OF ORDERS AS ENTERED.
There si a reason the Citadels and others try to keep a very, very low public profile.
The corollary is about the world of securities lending: Nearly all major institutional investor and securities custodians make much of their revenues by securities lending. That includes nearly all the 'no-disclosed fee' brokers. That really means that every one of us who has a margin account, or any account at all with many brokers, has given the right to lend their own securities without, in most cases, and sharing of profits for that lending or even having it disclosed. In short, many of us HODL people are actually helping the shorts by lending our own shares without our own knowledge.

All this is perfectly legal. After all, in the USA the insiders write the rules. It is called 'self-governance'.
[we repost these points every couple of years because most retail investors have no idea at all. This is all public information, just obscure. For details an easy beginning is reading the DTC published rules. Warning: it is very, very boring and highly detailed.]

Yes. The act of using one of many “rules” to allow, essentially, cheating is not illegal. It is the manipulation by one individual or others in concert that is what is illegal. ( at least according to the SEC Act of 1938 ).. At that time the SEC, for the most part endeavored to do their job. For instance, this was the act that implemented the up-tick rule, designed to stop short sellers from “harming investors”. The agency now considers manipulative short sellers “market participants “. The implication being that short sellers are like any other “investors”.

 

[Cobos]

I thought I'd add some data for September and the Norwegian EV market.
Data can be found in this article
Total sales for Sept was 10342 cars. Down about 30% from last year. Out of those 2476 was one single model - Model Y. That puts Tesla as the biggest company, but keep in mind total Tesla sales for September was 2500, so pretty much only Model Y. The new Model 3 should be arriving in October so should show bigger sales of other models. Number 2 was Skoda with the Enyaq at 717, while Ford was at #3 at 493 for the Mach-E (most likely as they have an offer with 3 years of 0.25% interest while regular car loans are more like 6-7% now). Fisker Ocean actually sold 190 cars (212 cars year to date) which nets them a #12 spot this month.
Total pure gasoline cars 76 cars of all brands, diesel at 164 cars. While hybrid variants all types was 1059 cars. So that gives a new record of 87% pure EVs (beating old record of 86.8% from March). Hybrids got slightly lower taxes until 1.1.2024 so they should trend towards diesel sales after new years.
This of course is just one specific market, but it does give glimse into what the rest of Europe might see in a year or two. The last 5% is probably going to be non-EVs for a pretty long time I guess.

 

[unk45]

Yes. The act of using one of many “rules” to allow, essentially, cheating is not illegal. It is the manipulation by one individual or others in concert that is what is illegal. ( at least according to the SEC Act of 1938 ).. At that time the SEC, for the most part endeavored to do their job. For instance, this was the act that implemented the up-tick rule, designed to stop short sellers from “harming investors”. The agency now considers manipulative short sellers “market participants “. The implication being that short sellers are like any other “investors”.

Indeed and the DTC regulations were created in part to prevent application of SEC rules to market making and custodial functions.
Few may realize that nearly all of the activities we discuss here were nearly impossible prior to automating trading with switching to book entry shareholder documentation, prior to which shares were usually either 'bearer' or 'registered' but still were physically pieces of paper. Once that ended huge new volatility ensued quickly, to the benefit of 'NYSE Specialists' and other emerging market-makers.

 

[bruce4000]

Sure... I could see it increasing the PRICE of oil futures some.... but that wouldn't change supply and thus no lines to fill up with gas or anything of the sort... just potentially higher pump prices.

Which is good for EVs, but not to the degree implied.




No... but they're not going to take up arms either way so again not sure how it'd matter to supply?

ME conflict affects supply if it results in an embargo like in 1973. I had just gotten my drivers license in 1973 when the embargo started and my dad had me wait in the lines to fill up the car. Now I have an EV and screw OPEC. I doubt there will be an embargo this time as OPEC makes too much money now to give up.

 

[Fred42]

I thought I'd add some data for September and the Norwegian EV market.
Data can be found in this article
Total sales for Sept was 10342 cars. Down about 30% from last year. Out of those 2476 was one single model - Model Y. That puts Tesla as the biggest company, but keep in mind total Tesla sales for September was 2500, so pretty much only Model Y. The new Model 3 should be arriving in October so should show bigger sales of other models. Number 2 was Skoda with the Enyaq at 717, while Ford was at #3 at 493 for the Mach-E (most likely as they have an offer with 3 years of 0.25% interest while regular car loans are more like 6-7% now). Fisker Ocean actually sold 190 cars (212 cars year to date) which nets them a #12 spot this month.
Total pure gasoline cars 76 cars of all brands, diesel at 164 cars. While hybrid variants all types was 1059 cars. So that gives a new record of 87% pure EVs (beating old record of 86.8% from March). Hybrids got slightly lower taxes until 1.1.2024 so they should trend towards diesel sales after new years.
This of course is just one specific market, but it does give glimse into what the rest of Europe might see in a year or two. The last 5% is probably going to be non-EVs for a pretty long time I guess.

Are the Mach-E's imported to Norway from Mexico or China?

 

[Knightshade]

ME conflict affects supply if it results in an embargo like in 1973. I had just gotten my drivers license in 1973 when the embargo started and my dad had me wait in the lines to fill up the car. Now I have an EV and screw OPEC. I doubt there will be an embargo this time as OPEC makes too much money now to give up.

None of the nations directly involved in this conflict are OPEC members though, the one most INdirectly involved (Iran) is, but does not supply any oil to the US (and could not afford- financially or politically- to withhold it from the places they DO sell it- and haven't been subject to OPEC targets anyway since 2019 due to international sanctions)

 

[Hock1]

Indeed and the DTC regulations were created in part to prevent application of SEC rules to market making and custodial functions.
Few may realize that nearly all of the activities we discuss here were nearly impossible prior to automating trading with switching to book entry shareholder documentation, prior to which shares were usually either 'bearer' or 'registered' but still were physically pieces of paper. Once that ended huge new volatility ensued quickly, to the benefit of 'NYSE Specialists' and other emerging market-makers.

I met a recently retired attorney from Nasdaq, a couple of years ago. He told me that the Nasdaq as well as the DTCC have NO idea how many real shares of any particular company are identifiable in the overall settlement system. Talk about a massive cluster.....

 

[TSLA Pilot]

I thought somebody mentioned it here...but maybe I read it elsewhere.

Basically:
People often honk the horn when they sense a potential front-end accident happening. And, in the industry-standard design, the airbag explodes out of the horn region of the steering wheel. If hands are there mashing the horn, and an airbag-deploying crash occurs, severe arm and hand injuries are just about guaranteed.

So, while Tesla's alternate design on the S/X may not be perfect, it may have been intended, and succeeded, in improving this problem.

Your statement of Tesla's solution creating a new problem is valid...and perhaps they will eventually find a solution that fixes both problems.

At this point in time, the current design should be viewed as shifting the balance between "risk of hands and arms being badly broken" and "risk of driver can't always honk the horn on the first try." I have exactly zero statistics related to how often a horn honk prevents an accident...but that figure would help to define the relative magnitudes of those two risks and therefore the value of Tesla's S/X design.

Well, in an effort to keep new Highland Model 3 sales going well, Tesla has moved the horn button back at the steering wheel center on their latest model update.

Oddly, Elon promised this for the MS/MX well over a year ago, long before MS/MX sales cratered. I guess he got distracted and forgot to follow up on his own Tweet?

Imagine how margins would have been over the past year if prices had kept up with high demand, but I fear word is getting out: Elon if often brilliant; Elon can also be intermittently moronic.

Elon Musk confirms yoke steering wheel airbag horn will be turned on through OTA software update

In January we reported that Tesla was getting ready to add a new airbag horn to the Model S yoke steering wheel. The new feature was spotted on a yoke steering wheel with the sticker “AIRBAG […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Pity for our TSLA stock price volatility though . . . .

 

[Usain]

One of my favorite bits of trivia:

Contrary to popular belief, Nixon was not in front of his helicopter when he uttered his famous phrase, "I am not a crook". And it wasn't even something he planned to say. It was in response to a reporter's question.

But the fun tidbit is the following. The place where he told us he was not a crook was, of all places, Walt Disney World. The press conference was held in the Contemporary Resort, the one that the monorail goes through.

Needless to say, it's not a piece of history that the Walt Disney Company brags about being a part of.

 

[Cobos]

Are the Mach-E's imported to Norway from Mexico or China?

As I didn't know they were made in China at all I can't answer that. My impression was that they came from Mexico but I'm not very updated on Fords EVs.
Though a quick 10 min google search on Norwegian language sites implys that my hunch is correct and this is Mexican cars.

 

[Mengy]

Nah. There’s a vendetta and a whole bunch of other things.

I’m privy to some new information about stuff I suspected (and others here have suspected), now entirely confirmed. Sorry, can not share details at this time. Let’s just say that the size of your account opens doors and gives access to people and resources otherwise not available to us plebes. They accidentally let a plebe enter and showed their hand. I may have told them to stuff it.

I won't ask you for details because I know you can't give any, but I do have one question: is this new info anything us hodl'ers need worry about? Or are we safe to simply keep holding our shares and riding the chaos out?

EDIT: Oh, the post was from back in May. Didn't realize Arftul was quoting from the archives!

 

[GOVA]

sold for $400k

sucks. I was hoping to sell mine quick for a mil.