Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

UAW is set to strike this midnight. They target production plants that will cause other production plants to shut down. The stuff they want is crazy and Ford said they would have lost 14 billion over the last 4 years if UAW's demand were met.

But yeah what the UAW demand is pretty crazy like 32hr work week and a 40% pay increase immediately.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702504597166641651

UAW update: United Auto Workers, automakers remain far from a deal as strike deadline approaches

The UAW union and Detroit's three automakers remain far apart in contract talks, and the union is preparing to strike.

abc7ny.com

«
raise their offers, which were far lower than union demands of 36% wage increases over four years. GM and Ford offered 20% and Stellantis, formerly Fiat Chrysler, offered 17.5%.

Outside the Ford plant in suburban Detroit, Britney Johnson, 35, who has worked for the company about 3 1/2 years and has yet to reach top union wages, said she'd like higher pay, the return of pensions, and cost of living increases. "I like the job. It's just that we deserve more," she said. »

These companies were already losing money on every EV sold. They should accept the 36% wage increase of their workers, they will just lose a little bit more on each EV sold

 

[mongo]

Except when you're Tesla. A slab of concrete, a tent, and some scrap conveyor machines was turned into the 2nd (and now permanent) Fremont Model 3 line inside a month back in Spring of 2018. That's when I invested, damn straight, it was do-or-die time...

The sprung structure was the 3rd Model 3 line.
<insert "there are three lines" meme>

 

[SunnylandY]

I think we should look into what automotive supply companies are UAW - and which of those also supply Tesla. A back of the earlobe guess here: some, but very few. Maybe I can learn something of the UAW's reach: how far upstream from assembly plants they have traveled.

On edit, to keep this as a single post. From the UAW's website, although they do declare their members aren't just autobuilders, it seems their reach - bizarre a group though it is - is limited to, in toto:

• medical supplies, wax buffing pads and loofah bath scrubs
• commercial dishwashers
• soup kettles
• (naval) ship designing
• gambling casino employees
• Dept.ofAgric. staff (in Puerto Rico only)

plus..."automotive parts for Volvo's Macungie, PA, Mack Truck plant"

And that's all. Sure hope I can still get my back scrub brush during any strike.

I've been wondering and wanting to ask about this as well but was to lazy/busy to read back through bazillions of posts where it has already been addressed and didn't want to be ostracized for being that guy.
Almost any single missing component can hold up an entire production line. Perhaps whoever those supplier are have different contracts?

 

[mongo]

Possible alternate explanation: 4680s are performing poorly. We already know Tesla has these vehicles charging at around half the rate of 2170/18650 packs. I wouldn’t be eager to introduce a new product line (cybertruck) with a gimped charging rate, particularly a product that is insanely high-profile and going to so many EV first-timers.

Possible other alternative. They're transitioning/ have transitioned to the Cyber Cell version of 4680 on existing cell lines.
I don't understand why cell performance would suddenly not be good enough to keep using in an existing product (which I think your senario requires).

 

[Darkfox021]

Possible alternate explanation: 4680s are performing poorly. We already know Tesla has these vehicles charging at around half the rate of 2170/18650 packs. I wouldn’t be eager to introduce a new product line (cybertruck) with a gimped charging rate, particularly a product that is insanely high-profile and going to so many EV first-timers.

Would they not keep using 4680 in the model Y then?

 

[Stretch2727]

I think we should look into what automotive supply companies are UAW - and which of those also supply Tesla. A back of the earlobe guess here: some, but very few. Maybe I can learn something of the UAW's reach: how far upstream from assembly plants they have traveled.

On edit, to keep this as a single post. From the UAW's website, although they do declare their members aren't just autobuilders, it seems their reach - bizarre a group though it is - is limited to, in toto:

• medical supplies, wax buffing pads and loofah bath scrubs
• commercial dishwashers
• soup kettles
• (naval) ship designing
• gambling casino employees
• Dept.ofAgric. staff (in Puerto Rico only)

plus..."automotive parts for Volvo's Macungie, PA, Mack Truck plant"

And that's all. Sure hope I can still get my back scrub brush during any strike.

The supplier plants have separate contracts. They expire at different times and tend to be quite different than the core UAW plants. I would start to get concerned if you were to hear rumblings around Lear, Visteon or Delphi. These are some of the automotive component suppliers that have UAW plants. At the same time, I would be surprised if they are supplying Tesla as most are spin offs from the big 3 and tend not to be super competitive.

The biggest concern for Tesla would be an extended strike which causes a bankruptcy at a non-union supplier to Tesla due to lack of business from the big 3. Likely though this would more easy to mitigate as you would have time and the supplier would be trying to keep any viable business going for a sale or takeover by someone else.

 

[2daMoon]

Ford Motors isn't bankrupt. That's when you run out of money to pay bills. If they closed plants, management would get fired by the Board of Directors. Further, most union labor contracts include job security clauses. There is no easy way out of this Detroit quagmire.

IMO, Ford should offer profit sharing tied to productivity with a Cost-of-Living guarantee for wages, nothing more. Who famously called Tesla "structurally unprofitable"? Where's that guy?

Sometimes a dream is just a dream.

Ford CEO Jim Farley warns UAW proposal could force bankruptcy

During a conversation with CNBC Overtime, an exasperated Farley stated that the UAW proposal would have resulted in Ford going bankrupt.

www.teslarati.com

 

[LYTRIDR]

What if...

...Ford closed their UAW plants permanently, entered bankruptcy, and restructured to built Ford's EV business without the ICE, Union, legacy engineering, and dealership anchors hanging around their neck?

It amuses me to dream of things like this even if they are far-fetched.

I think it is a little early for this to happen, but I fully expect this to be the case. IMO Ford began stating financials for Ford Blue and Ford Mach-e separately as a first step to spin off the EV portion of the business in a few years.

Step 1: Report financials separately
Step 2: Grow EV business and scale to profit/line of sight profitability
Step 3: Spin off EV business with fresh balance sheet. No Union labor, No legacy debt, updated culture and management.
Step 4: Watch legacy business go down in flames
Step 5: Ford survived! Still the only non-Tesla auto manufacturer to never go bankrupt... ; )

2027, best guess

 

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702366197738557718

Not sure why Alex is reporting this as "news" in September when it was already reported as early as February?

VW will not build a factory for Trinity, but one for the US brand Scout - electrive.com

www.electrive.com

I’m not making any claims or estimates about Tesla’s production rate in 2024. I was responding to those members who seem to feel that new factories are required to hit the targets. If you don’t feel doubling capacity in an existing factory is realistic, then I don’t see how building a new factory is a better option.

This late into 2023 neither one is a viable option for a 50% production increase for 2024. That was kind of the entire point of the discussion- based on some folks having suggested more like 25-30% growth and other folks disagreeing.

So as I say some folks suggested unit growth would be much smaller in '24 as a result (which is fine- Elon was pretty clear they want to AVERAGE 50% YoY long term to 20M- so a couple years under, and 2024 is likely to be well under, is fine if we get a big boom increase in 25/26 from new factories). Other folks insisted existing plants could just make 50% more cars somehow despite Teslas own published max capacity figures suggesting that isn't realistic (and then a side debate for a bit about if that's due to not having 50% more cells available, or due to just physically you can't add that many new lines at full ramp speed to the existing plants in any reasonable time to hit those #s... there's also the side issue of RWD 3 prob. loses $3750 of the credit Jan 1, but highland might be enough to offset that)

 

[Artful Dodger]

The sprung structure was the 3rd Model 3 line.
<insert "there are three lines" meme>

'There can be only one', until Elon announced GA4 on June 16, 2018: (GA1+2 were for S/X)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1008081295090450432

Fun Fact: Ryan McCaffrey from the 'Ride the Lightning' Podcast thinks he might have received this 1st production Model 3 P.

#11,500 (June 18, 2018) One TMC'er had family working on the new GA4 line. Great story of triumph over adversity.

Cheers!

 

[2daMoon]

I think it is a little early for this to happen, but I fully expect this to be the case. IMO Ford began stating financials for Ford Blue and Ford Mach-e separately as a first step to spin off the EV portion of the business in a few years.

Step 1: Report financials separately
Step 2: Grow EV business and scale to profit/line of sight profitability
Step 3: Spin off EV business with fresh balance sheet. No Union labor, No legacy debt, updated culture and management.
Step 4: Watch legacy business go down in flames
Step 5: Ford survived! Still the only non-Tesla auto manufacturer to never go bankrupt... ; )

2027, best guess

May want to add to Step 3, implement a Direct Sales model and abandon Dealer Network Sales model in favor of Service and Delivery centers.

 

[Krugerrand]

«
raise their offers, which were far lower than union demands of 36% wage increases over four years. GM and Ford offered 20% and Stellantis, formerly Fiat Chrysler, offered 17.5%.

Outside the Ford plant in suburban Detroit, Britney Johnson, 35, who has worked for the company about 3 1/2 years and has yet to reach top union wages, said she'd like higher pay, the return of pensions, and cost of living increases. "I like the job. It's just that we deserve more," she said. »

These companies were already losing money on every EV sold. They should accept the 36% wage increase of their workers, they will just lose a little bit more on each EV sold

A whole 3 1/2 years of work and still not top union wage. Oh, the horror! And doesn’t have a pension plan like millions of other people with jobs - including Tesla employees. She might want to start saving her couch money; maybe invest in F or better yet, short TSLA. Good to hear, though, she at least likes her job.

 

[AndrewZ]

Sometimes a dream is just a dream.

Ford CEO Jim Farley warns UAW proposal could force bankruptcy

During a conversation with CNBC Overtime, an exasperated Farley stated that the UAW proposal would have resulted in Ford going bankrupt.

www.teslarati.com

Would need to do an independent analysis to determine if that would actually be true and how it pertains to the current picture, otherwise of course the CEO trying to push back on union demands will portray things in as dire a way possible. He's not going into negotiations after offering less than the union wants and saying "everything would be fine if we accepted this, we merely want to give you less!"

The companies will also point out the implications to the EV transition, all the commitments they've made, how this could derail the climate initiatives etc, that can be used to convince the government to do things.

 

[MP3Mike]

Possible alternate explanation: 4680s are performing poorly. We already know Tesla has these vehicles charging at around half the rate of 2170/18650 packs.

Do the 4680 packs charge slower than other packs? Yes. But not half the rate. For example, in the Out of Spec 15-minute charge challenge the Model Y AWD took on ~7% less energy than the Model 3 RWD.

 

[phantasms]

Big volume and red candles suddenly coming in on ES and QQQ and TSLA. What's up?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Do the 4680 packs charge slower than other packs? Yes. But not half the rate. For example, in the Out of Spec 15-minute charge challenge the Model Y AWD took on ~7% less energy than the Model 3 RWD.

The rate drops faster, so it slows down much more in the top half of the battery.

 

[2daMoon]

Big volume and red candles suddenly coming in on ES and QQQ and TSLA. What's up?

It's Friday?

Edit: Add to this how Papafox shared a low Maxpain number yesterday, a high Call Wall, and the fact the Short Selling volume was very high (63% of TSLA selling) earlier in the week and there are plenty of folks pushing the price around for wanting to have things their way at the end of the day. Seems like volume is back to normal after the open. Investors may be waiting for the manips to finish their morning onslaught to get the best price. Oh, and the actions of the UAW brain trust my play into this as well.

 

[GhostSkater]

Possible other alternative. They're transitioning/ have transitioned to the Cyber Cell version of 4680 on existing cell lines.
I don't understand why cell performance would suddenly not be good enough to keep using in an existing product (which I think your senario requires).

Looks like that is the case

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702518536110027195

Would they not keep using 4680 in the model Y then?

Because Cybertruck will suck all the cells it can, it will likely use more than double the number of cells the Model Y can

Makes more sense to go back to just make Model Y 2170 than limit Cybertruck production due to lack of cells, Model Y numbers won't suffer much since they have plenty of 2170s now that Megapack is LFP but Cybertruck will without Kato Rd doing cells for it while Texas ramps



And on a totally unrelated note, anyone knows how Mike Levine is doing?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Big volume and red candles suddenly coming in on ES and QQQ and TSLA. What's up?

UAW

Deepwater's Gene Munster on Tesla Wages, UAW Negotiations | Deepwater Asset Management (1 hr ago)

 

[FireMedic]

TSLA down 1.5% and GM up 2% on news of a UAW strike