Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I‘m surprised Waymo would allow up to 65mph.

There’s an interesting dynamic here where urban driving is more complex but likely actually lower risk than highway because the speeds are so much higher as are the stakes if something goes wrong, and reaction times need to be shorter at those highway speeds. I’d expect that Tesla would follow a pattern similar to the robotaxis out there already: they would accept liability on urban roads before that risk will be accepted on highways.

I think the only thing stopping Tesla from attempting Waymo or Cruise-like functionality today is unwillingness to take ownership of the driving task and liability for what happens when the system is operating. These other companies do it today even though their vehicles make mistakes, no reason it couldn’t be attempted by Tesla.


But FSD is nowhere near good enough for Tesla to accept the liability, the question is how much better does it need to be? 10x safer than humans? 100x? 1000x? Considering the size of Tesla’s fleet if a switch were to be flipped that would turn current FSD Beta vehicles into robotaxis, the liability would be massive and the risk mitigation needs to be equally massive.

You literally hear silence from MSM about these Cruise crashes while Tesla gets on the front pages for near misses.

Thank the heavens for your health that Tesla's FSD is not yet driverless because all of us would get some sort of cancer/heart attack from stress.

 

[capster]

I am considering infrastructure, so comparing with spread of electric refrigerator and motorcars. Both were very rapid but actually took a couple decades to replace the vast majority of prior practice around the world.

In the early 1950's there was still an icebox in the house I lived in, no telephone, no electricity. That was actually in the USA, far Southern Ohio. Of course my family and all that long before then, in the early 1900's in Southern California and my relatives in Rio de Janeiro had them too. When we see the world dominance fo renewables and of BEV adoption we need to consider all the words, not just the wealthy urban parts. It's perilously easy to imagine otherwise. Perhaps I am too conservative in my outlook because I remember other times.

Still, I have two BEV in two countries with others readily available when traveling and consume social media rather too much, and travel entirely too much.
That makes me rather sensitive to what in marketing we call 'mother-in-law research. Above all we need to avoid extrapolating from personal experience. I've made such mistakes much too frequently.

Perhaps I am letting my hopes influence my thinking—I am not modeling this, just guesstimating. I do have some relevant experience and training, though your accomplishments exceed mine I’m sure. You’re right it pays off to bear in mind the limits of experience.

One would have to model infrastructure to get some sort of clarity, I would think (it’s been a lifetime since I modeled anything). Even then, I’d be the one coming up with funny questions like "What is the effect of the number of robotaxi-capable cars extant when Tesla throws the switch?" I can’t help thinking that there would qualitative differences as well as quantitative ones between, say, one car, a hundred thousand, millions and more than ten million. [edit: Which is a roundabout way of saying it might conceivably be it Tesla’s interest for that to be above some number, though I’ve no idea what that might be.]

If I’m going to make a move based on what’s between my two ears, I’m inclined to just buy a golden ticket when I can even if it’s well, well in advance of any putative departure date for the train. Yes, there’s any opportunity cost, but I’d rather not miss the train. Conversely, if I found myself in possession of potentially stranded assets, I’d just get rid of them.

 

[Nocturnal]

Unfortunately, I don't think the used car market is ready to properly value used BEVs yet. There still exists concerns over battery longevity and replacement costs. Previous generation products like the Nissan Leaf, or even the recent Bolt battery issues don't help perceptions. Until we start to see some reputable hard data to promote the fact that BEVs likely have significantly lower TCO over 200K+ miles, I feel older, higher milage BEVs will be valued artifically well below what they ought to be.

People also don't know how to factor in the potential cost.

What would a battery cost for a 2018 model 3 if I replaced it next week? Can the average buyer quickly find that info or will they be forced to listen to anecdotes and FUD articles? I think Tesla should have that info somewhere.

 

[jerry33]

People also don't know how to factor in the potential cost.

What would a battery cost for a 2018 model 3 if I replaced it next week? Can the average buy quickly find that info or will they be forced to listen to anecdotes and FUD articles? I think Tesla should have that info somewhere.

I just tell the story about the Prius. When launched, the media and pundits said replacement cost would be $10,000 but by the time batteries actually required replacement they were $3,000 installed.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Same experience here. I used to get phantom braking on older versions, but in V11 phantom braking seems to be a thing of the past.

There are still hesitations and transient slowdowns but these seem to be map related. Most of these that I've researched appear to occur at jurisdictional boundaries and the road segment terminal nodes have a small amount of overlap, rather than meeting at a common node. Why this causes an FSDb glitch, I have no idea. But the problem is 100% reproducible at that location.

 

[Snerruc]

People also don't know how to factor in the potential cost.

What would a battery cost for a 2018 model 3 if I replaced it next week? Can the average buyer quickly find that info or will they be forced to listen to anecdotes and FUD articles? I think Tesla should have that info somewhere.

Check the battery threads. People are reporting $13-15,000 for rebuilt and $ 20,000 for new. Not sure that includes labor.

 

[Nocturnal]

Check the battery threads. People are reporting $13-15,000 for rebuilt and $ 20,000 for new. Not sure that includes labor.

Right. I know that, but should we expect the average new car buyer to find TMC and then trust that info?

 

[Zero CO2]

People also don't know how to factor in the potential cost.

What would a battery cost for a 2018 model 3 if I replaced it next week? Can the average buyer quickly find that info or will they be forced to listen to anecdotes and FUD articles? I think Tesla should have that info somewhere.

2018 M3 is still under warranty so $0
2026 will be a different story

 

[ZeApelido]

Somewhat related to $TSLA, since its an EV company

Anyone see Vinfast ($VFS) stock today? up over 100% for no reason.

 

[ZeApelido]

I am phantom braking from 85 to 70 mph at least 1 time per 5 miles.

 

[Tim S]

2018 M3 is still under warranty so $0
2026 will be a different story

Exactly. All this talk of battery replacement cost is just anti-ev FUD. People here should know better. I have a 2018 Model 3. The battery has an 8-year warranty. If it needed to be replaced it would cost me $0.

It is at about 99% of the range when I bought it 5+ years ago (310 then, 305-308 now), so I don't expect to ever replace the battery.

 

[Words of HABIT]

View attachment 967410

99% of VinFast is owned by one person, Pham That Vuong. With only 1% available to trade it makes for very volatile trading. This works both ways. Up, and Down. Due diligence people. This is no Tesla.

A 200% EV IPO bonanza has boosted the wealth of Vietnam's wealthiest person eightfold to over $44 billion

VinFast's stock opened at $22 apiece on Nasdaq — a surge of over 200% from the $10 per share price agreed upon with Black Spade Acquisition.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[wipster]

Ahh, cleaning out old tech yesterday I found an actual AOL dial up modem right beside my equally ancient Apple Newton replete with Graffiti instructions and its very own dialup modem. Both bought in Menlo Park just near Anderson Chevrolet, which became the original Tesla factory, a decade later:

Menlo Park's only auto factory assembles $100,000 cars - InMenlo

Passers-by may well have seen the sleek, gray and very modern Tesla dealership at 300 El Camino in Menlo Park, just opposite the intersection with Partridge Avenue, on a lot that once was home to Anderson Chevrolet. One of the first two U.S. showrooms (the other is in Santa Monica), this...

inmenlo.com

Somehow it seems fitting that those two became two of my most durable investments.
It seems to me that the more we understand the history and origin of TSLA the more we're likely to understand the benefit of HODL, assuming willingness to live with volatility.

LOL! Want to play on my Intellivision?

 

[InDaClub]

So much "BRAND DAMAGE"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694124072517489147

 

[Zero CO2]

Exactly. All this talk of battery replacement cost is just anti-ev FUD. People here should know better. I have a 2018 Model 3. The battery has an 8-year warranty. If it needed to be replaced it would cost me $0.

It is at about 99% of the range when I bought it 5+ years ago (310 then, 305-308 now), so I don't expect to ever replace the battery.

well i did not expect to replace the battery on my 2018 MS but it was replaced last week for $0 ...however if i keep the car then by 2026 i will be concerned as the replacement cost certainly does not seem to be following wrights law... hopefully for MY and M3 the 2170 last longer

there was no discernable drop in range ~320 miles then error message and limited to 91 miles .. like it fell off a cliff ... not FUD just facts

 

[SPadival]

Lee, "The Tesla Economist" mentioned that Elon has indicated he would sell some shares in 2024. Does anyone here know what he is referring to?

Here is the comment in the middle of his video:

In the interest of transparency, Lee should have to disclose in each of his clickbait videos that he was responsible for a substantial loss of his dad’s retirement funds by panic selling $TSLA shares at the bottom.

 

[MC3OZ]

This is the part of the population that will only buy EV’s when they are forced to, most likely because of range anxiety because the density of gas stations will get too low. In Belgium I think this will be around 2030: by then, almost no ICE cars will get out-of-lease (because the new car market is mainly the company car market that has been forced to EV with tax rules) and the volume of gas sold will have plummeted (because most of the consumption also comes from company cars).

At some stage these people will be the only family in the street that drives an ICE and it will become increasingly hard to buy an ICE that is less than 5 years old, and later hard to buy one less than 10 years old.

I doubt that carmakers will be able to afford to make ICE and service cars for 10% of the population even if they want to, If that is possible, it is at the high end similar to a Rolex watch. So these people with strong convictions also need to have deep pockets, or be happy to drive a old car.

 

[MC3OZ]

Lesson: TSLA needs more GF level Powerpack supply NOW, at least ten times current plans. CATL, BYD and everyone else is headed there, as quickly as creaking bureaucracy can do so. How fast can Tesla move? That is the question!

Looking at Lathrop, once Tesla can source the cells assembling them into energy storage batteries is not as complex as making cars, and factories can ramp fast on fairly low capex.

So the real question becomes how many cells can Tesla source from companies like BYD, CATL, Panasonic and LG, and how many 4680 cells can they make.

BYD and CATL already have their own energy storage products, if Panasonic and LG don't yet have energy storage products they soon will.

The company making the batteries will intend to make the same margin on the cells whether they use them in their own product or sell them to Tesla.

IMO there is no question that Tesla being 100% dependent on external cell suppliers for energy storage products will slow them down, will reduce market share and margins.

The edge Tesla currently may have is software like Autobidder, but any large battery supplier that doesn't have software like than can develop it.

The good news and the critical part of the puzzle IMO is 4680 cell production, Tesla can hopefully scale rapidly with efficient capex, provided they can source the raw materials.

This is why I have suggested that 4680 cell production and energy storage battery manufacture might be a good way to start in many countries.

 

[AudubonB]

Same experience here. I used to get phantom braking on older versions, but in V11 phantom braking seems to be a thing of the past.

Yes just drove 650 miles on enhanced auto pilot 0 disengagements and 1 mild brake check. The best performance to date.

I believe there were others, but these two will serve as examples of -

(1) Driving the thread Off Topic,

and far worse -

(2) committing the Logical Fallacy of "Well it didn't happen to me so your comment should be disregarded".

 

[MC3OZ]

The concept of there someday being a flurry of Cyber vehicles is a good one, but I agree, one look at the renders and it is obvious the artist didn't grok what it is that makes a Cyber a Cyber.

One way this could work is moving some models to an "unboxed process" then having the option of stainless steel, aluminium or wrapped panels instead of painted,

Tesla could perhaps use a softer stainless steel alloy that could be stamped?

I'm not really sure where the line between form, function and cost would be drawn.

For some time customers would want conventional painted cars, but perhaps cars with a factory wrap could be enough to satisfy customers?

Perhaps conventional panels rust treated with a "Cyber wrap" can achieve a lot of the desired aesthetics in a cost effective way?

Having machines to bend panels as well as machines to stamp panels is a duplication that may increase costs. But using the unboxed process, only the panel part of the car is impacted by this decision.

My preference would be for Tesla to produce a smaller version of the Cybertruck and a large Cybervan/Cybercamper first. For those models the Cyber platform may yield some functional advantages and cost savings. No need to have conventional painted versions of those models.