Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TSLA Pilot]

That wasn’t my position.

You’ve been asked to prove the content is 100% factual and can’t. It’s not my responsibility to prove otherwise. I didn’t post it as some ‘this is a serious Tesla investment risk!!!’ You did. The onus is on you. Or not. But stop with the crap.

Yes, yes, of course! The same HUGE risk it has been since Tesla began to build a factory there in January 2019. We’ve discussed it to death along with the media and WallStreet and every analyst and every economist and every politician-

If you think over 4 years later that the same risk still exists or it’s a larger risk then perhaps YOU shouldn’t be all in?

Thanks so much for repeating the China risk, yet again. I’m sure there are individuals here extremely grateful for your warning and are already trimming their positions. I, for one, require a lot more factual data to raise my heart rate because not a single risk discussed to death over the last decade has come to fruition for Tesla. Not a single one.

Goodness, so much drama.

First, I have watched the video in question a second time. It appears to have not had any Photoshopped stills inserted, but you be you--I'm sure you think it's all "faked" and not to be trusted. Whatever floats your boat, but the rest of us should be alert going forward.

The reality is that China risk is becoming LARGER as the current leadership has greatly consolidated power and made changes that suggest China now has a "dictator for life."

Such arrangements do not usually end well, AND that is DIFFERENT from the past four years, and when things CHANGE is when investors need to be alert.

Don't be so sensitive.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Somewhat related to $TSLA, since its an EV company

Anyone see Vinfast ($VFS) stock today? up over 100% for no reason.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

How much higher can TSLA go when, let's say, they start licensing out FSD to Cruise and Waymo? I'm not exactly sure how to value the licensing of FSD data and/or software.

Initially, it would probably be a nice pop in the stock....until something happens and Cruise/Waymo do not have to blame themselves any further, and put the 'blame' on FSD.

 

[betstarship]

Initially, it would probably be a nice pop in the stock....until something happens and Cruise/Waymo do not have to blame themselves any further, and put the 'blame' on FSD.

Well, wouldn't they unequivocally become safer and be provable to be so with Tesla data? That'd be a super quick rebuttal.

 

[SOULPEDL]

How much higher can TSLA go when, let's say, they start licensing out FSD to Cruise and Waymo? I'm not exactly sure how to value the licensing of FSD data and/or software.

I thought we covered this already?

Spoiler: For Clarification Purposes Only

 

[capster]

There is a long history, public but obscure, of huge losses on residual values when vehicles had unusual drops in resale prices. BMW 7 séries first iDrive, Cadillac V8/6/4, numerous makes/models discontinued suddenly.

These have never been the norm. The rapid conversion to BEV is already having an effect where BEV adoption is high, but…vast swathes of thebworld have almost no BEV, and some of them are already good markets for used cars and trucks.

I think the adoption process will still be slow enough to avoid resale blooodbaths overall, but in nearly all of the urban EU and China the urban delivery vehicle market is BEV already, and ICE small delivery resale has plummeted. That sort of drop requires both regulation and market action.

As much as people discuss Tesla depreciation they really haven’t seen bloodbaths. The only solid comparisons have been discontinued brands in large markets, VW Phaeton, SAAB, Saturn, are all examples. The future of several new BEV brands is headed there before the overall ICE market ‘hits a wall’. My guess is that will happen in EU variously through 2030, and globally by 2035 or so, if present trends continue.

Infrastructure alone will take that long In much of the world.

This is too conservative, imho, given the history of market disruptions by new technology. Further, robotaxis will almost certainly be a significant (decisive?) factor by 2030 and certainly before 2035.

I‘m still holding to my 2024 forecast for FSD. For my own planning, I’m pegging appreciable robotaxi use very likely no later than sometime in 2027.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well, wouldn't they unequivocally become safer and be provable to be so with Tesla data? That'd be a super quick rebuttal.

In a perfect world, yes. However, we still have the element of 'human' drivers that are pre-occupied with tasks such as texting, eating, (anything else that causes them to be distracted),etc while driving

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I"m sure I'm going to regret saying this but so far today, this a very strong follow up to yesterday's rally.

Filled the 4% gap from open and found it's footing and relative strength shown in the past hour.

All this with volume much higher than yesterday.

 

[Bet TSLA]

the reality is that the China Risk for TSLA is HUGE and it would be folly to not acknowledge this

Well, the Texas risk is also huge. If you want to talk about the risks associated with building factories in places run by aggressive autocracies, there might be a better choice than this thread.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

This is too conservative, imho, given the history of market disruptions by new technology. Further, robotaxis will almost certainly be a significant (decisive?) factor by 2030 and certainly before 2035.

I‘m still holding to my 2024 forecast for FSD. For my own planning, I’m pegging appreciable robotaxi use very likely no later than sometime in 2027.

I think you are off by a few years on the latter. Then again there is a lot of pressure now to move the progress needle on FSD at a much faster rate than it has been. (Which has been very little at least for us). It wouldn’t surprise me to see more manpower put into this in the next year or three. Without some serious progress in the next year or three the ongoing shifting FSD promise will lose its attraction to investors.

Jmho.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is too conservative, imho, given the history of market disruptions by new technology. Further, robotaxis will almost certainly be a significant (decisive?) factor by 2030 and certainly by 2035.

I‘m still holding to my 2024 forecast for FSD. For my own planning, I’m pegging appreciable robotaxi use very likely no later than sometime in 2027.

This is too conservative, imho, given Dojo compute capacity forecasts. 2027 feels too late, but I'm an Optimus.

In "The Singularity is Near", it's quite clear that growth in AI is expected to be exponential. So past performance does not translate to future trends very well. It's been "never cry wolf" so many times, but that has no bearing on growth from this time forward.

Therefore, I would not be surprised for some initial robo-revenue $$ by next year's end. There's very little cost side to the equation (besides FSD insurance internally, and cleaning fees). Once it starts, I expect instant cash-flow positive (unlike rivals) and VERY rapid expansion of the service. This is the mission focus.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I"m sure I'm going to regret saying this but so far today, this a very strong follow up to yesterday's rally.

Filled the 4% gap from open and found it's footing and relative strength shown in the past hour.

All this with volume much higher than yesterday.

Please repeat whatever you said yesterday on a daily basis

 

[insaneoctane]

Meanwhile the lease payments on BEVs will be smaller, and might even shrink if resale values of BEVs remain high

Unfortunately, I don't think the used car market is ready to properly value used BEVs yet. There still exists concerns over battery longevity and replacement costs. Previous generation products like the Nissan Leaf, or even the recent Bolt battery issues don't help perceptions. Until we start to see some reputable hard data to promote the fact that BEVs likely have significantly lower TCO over 200K+ miles, I feel older, higher milage BEVs will be valued artifically well below what they ought to be.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693873523985674644

I really hope Tesla is viewing the Cybertruck as the first entry into the "Cyber" collection that will have a Model 3, Y, S, X and Compact versions. Sure a Cyber S/X is overkill but omg can you imagine falcon wing doors on Cyber X

Tesla excels in minimize product catalogue for efficiency but as Tesla grows volume into the scale of Toyota and beyond, I think having the normal Tesla lineup and the Cyber equivalent would give Tesla's entire product category enough variety to sell 15-20 million cars a year and knowing Tesla, they would smartly make the platform between a regular 3 and a Cyber 3 the same to where they continue to share efficiencies

 

[tracksyde]

Somewhat related to $TSLA, since its an EV company

Anyone see Vinfast ($VFS) stock today? up over 100% for no reason.

VinFast has announced that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) range ratings for its new all-electric seven-seater VF 9 SUV have surpassed the company's own initial estimates.

Specifically, the VF 9 Plus version priced at $83,000 has been certified with an EPA range of 291 miles, while the Eco version ($91,000) has a certified EPA range of 330 miles when fully charged.

source: Why New IPO Stock VinFast Surged 94% Today | The Motley Fool

But on their own website, it estimates the range at 369 miles on a 123kwh usable pack (assuming they are talking about the Extended Range pack)


source: VinFast VF 9

so they were estimating 3 miles/kwh but came in at 2.68 miles/kwh (or 373wh/mile)

 

[SOULPEDL]

I"m sure I'm going to regret saying this but so far today, this a very strong follow up to yesterday's rally.

Filled the 4% gap from open and found it's footing and relative strength shown in the past hour.

All this with volume much higher than yesterday.

Sounds like the 100 SP boogeyman is running off. Glad to hear this coming from you especially.

And yet still no change in business other than a couple of Analysts noticed Tesla this week (and maybe a few more people learned that Hydrogen can explode). Clearly... they talk, and they decide when, where, and "why."

 

[M|S|M MYP]

source: Why New IPO Stock VinFast Surged 94% Today | The Motley Fool

But on their own website, it estimates the range at 369 miles on a 123kwh usable pack (assuming they are talking about the Extended Range pack)


source: VinFast VF 9

so they were estimating 3 miles/kwh but came in at 2.68 miles/kwh (or 373wh/mile)

I rest my case on the 'no reason' statement.

 

[bkp_duke]

Somewhat related to $TSLA, since its an EV company

Anyone see Vinfast ($VFS) stock today? up over 100% for no reason.

Apparently, and I kid you not, it's because their official mileage estimates from the EPA came out today, and they are better than Vinfast expected them to be.

Wow, what a low bar for a 100%+ pop on the stock.

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693873523985674644

I really hope Tesla is viewing the Cybertruck as the first entry into the "Cyber" collection that will have a Model 3, Y, S, X and Compact versions. Sure a Cyber S/X is overkill but omg can you imagine falcon wing doors on Cyber X

Tesla excels in minimize product catalogue for efficiency but as Tesla grows volume into the scale of Toyota and beyond, I think having the normal Tesla lineup and the Cyber equivalent would give Tesla's entire product category enough variety to sell 15-20 million cars a year and knowing Tesla, they would smartly make the platform between a regular 3 and a Cyber 3 the same to where they continue to share efficiencies

Oooh, that bottom one would make for a great looking "Model 2".

 

[AndrewZ]

Dojo is more about improving efficiency and particularly cost efficiency than anything I think, as Elon has commented about before. It'll improve things by replacing human labelers and such, but... Well I'll just cite the source

https://twitter.com/x/status/1344810193952014336