Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

First video really showing off the roof glass of the CT.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1653150261748088832

Paid? or Forgiven? Which one ?

I think you can look it up but most were forgiven. It was a stupidly easy process.

 

[Ogre]

Regarding declining market share ... an important point that I haven't seen people talking about recently; only that Tesla is losing market share, how the competition is growing faster, and how Tesla can't sustain what it's got.

Tesla losing market share has been an inevitability from the beginning when they went off and got practically all of the market. The math makes any other outcome impossible. To make up some numbers to illustrate...

If Tesla sold 100 units in year 1 while the competition sold 10 units, then Tesla has 91% market share (10/11ths).

In year 2, Tesla grows 50% and sells 150 units. Meanwhile the competition goes nuts and sells 50 units. Tesla's growth in units is higher, but as a % Tesla grows 50% while competition grows 500%. OMG!

Then people project off these numbers and conclude that Tesla will grow to 225 in year 3, while competition grows to 250 in year 3.


I made up the numbers to illustrate the idea. The question I ask myself - who is going to add 1M units to their 2022 unit deliveries first and faster? Who is making the decisions, doing the engineering, doing the investment, etc.. to sustain or even increase their growth rate? Who out there has a chance of matching Tesla's growth rate once they clear 1M or 2M units? Heck - who is going to get to 1M units before 2030?

Growing at a high % off of nearly non-existent numbers is "easy". By "easy" I mean that effectively every car company since ~1900 that has tried to has gone bankrupt and mostly disappeared. We just assume that the current car companies can easily transition to EV manufacturing. But can they? Are EVs more like a new product / market that, like the ICEv market, is so difficult that virtually all entrants go bankrupt and fail at?

So far the economics and evidence I see is more consistent with this being a new market that exhibits characteristics of the car market - an important one being that new entrants (including incumbent ICEv manufacturers entering this new business) nearly all go bankrupt and fail at. As opposed to this being a new product line in the already existing car market - maybe it really is enough different that it isn't just a new product line in an existing market. H'mm...

But in the meantime, looking at growth rates, investors can get all excited about growing from 50k to 100k units in a year, and project out the inevitable demise of Tesla who can only grow at 1/2 or less of that rate.


Rate matter. Absolute numbers also matters, and a high rate off of small numbers is "easy".

Really good points here. But one other very important point to add.

Rivian has doubled in the past year, but they show little sign of breaking the critical profitability threshold any time soon. GM, Ford, VW, Audi, etc etc… all willing to release products and sell at a loss to keep their toe in the market.

Until there is a viable product competing against Tesla, we really don’t know what the market actually looks like. Products like the Mach-E which were able to grab significant share as a “loss-leader” sort of product are not sustainable long term products. I’m sure they will get better and more cost efficient over time, **but so will Tesla**.

This market is evolving so fast we’re likely not going to see the sort of steady state we had with ICE for a decade or more. The EV disruption is very likely to be interrupted by the AV disruption.

 

[generalenthu]

First video really showing off the roof glass of the CT.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1653150261748088832

I think you can look it up but most were forgiven. It was a stupidly easy process.

This might be an old video actually, as the front row has 3 seats. I wish they shipped with 3.

 

[insaneoctane]

First video really showing off the roof glass of the CT.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1653150261748088832

I think you can look it up but most were forgiven. It was a stupidly easy process.

I'm confused by that interior. I believe it shows a 6 seater configuration, but thought we'd heard CT is now 5-seater?

EDIT: Ninjaed by @generalenthu !

 

[jerry33]

Regarding declining market share ... an important point that I haven't seen people talking about recently; only that Tesla is losing market share, how the competition is growing faster, and how Tesla can't sustain what it's got.

Tesla losing market share has been an inevitability from the beginning when they went off and got practically all of the market. The math makes any other outcome impossible. To make up some numbers to illustrate...

If Tesla sold 100 units in year 1 while the competition sold 10 units, then Tesla has 91% market share (10/11ths).

In year 2, Tesla grows 50% and sells 150 units. Meanwhile the competition goes nuts and sells 50 units. Tesla's growth in units is higher, but as a % Tesla grows 50% while competition grows 500%. OMG!

Then people project off these numbers and conclude that Tesla will grow to 225 in year 3, while competition grows to 250 in year 3.


I made up the numbers to illustrate the idea. The question I ask myself - who is going to add 1M units to their 2022 unit deliveries first and faster? Who is making the decisions, doing the engineering, doing the investment, etc.. to sustain or even increase their growth rate? Who out there has a chance of matching Tesla's growth rate once they clear 1M or 2M units? Heck - who is going to get to 1M units before 2030?

Growing at a high % off of nearly non-existent numbers is "easy". By "easy" I mean that effectively every car company since ~1900 that has tried to has gone bankrupt and mostly disappeared. We just assume that the current car companies can easily transition to EV manufacturing. But can they? Are EVs more like a new product / market that, like the ICEv market, is so difficult that virtually all entrants go bankrupt and fail at?

So far the economics and evidence I see is more consistent with this being a new market that exhibits characteristics of the car market - an important one being that new entrants (including incumbent ICEv manufacturers entering this new business) nearly all go bankrupt and fail at. As opposed to this being a new product line in the already existing car market - maybe it really is enough different that it isn't just a new product line in an existing market. H'mm...

But in the meantime, looking at growth rates, investors can get all excited about growing from 50k to 100k units in a year, and project out the inevitable demise of Tesla who can only grow at 1/2 or less of that rate.


Rate matter. Absolute numbers also matters, and a high rate off of small numbers is "easy".

The problem is that "market share" in this case means EV market share which is meaningless. It's referring to EV market share as if it's fixed, when it's growing by leaps and bounds. The only market share that matters is the total market share.

 

[EQC_]

I'm confused by that interior. I believe it shows a 6 seater configuration, but thought we'd heard CT is now 5-seater?

EDIT: Ninjaed by @generalenthu !

Based on the dash, the yoke, and the 6 seats, that's definitely an earlier prototype.

Based on the surroundings in the video, and my own vague memories, I think this video was from an event at an art school (the one Franz von Holzhausen attended?) some months ago....

 

[dhanson865]

I hope you will all forgive a minor off topic post. I think this shows how mainstream Starlink is becoming and has knock on effects to Tesla even if it isn't directly related.

If you can't tell by the layout/color scheme it's Home Depot.

 

[Ogre]

The problem is that "market share" in this case means EV market share which is meaningless. It's referring to EV market share as if it's fixed, when it's growing by leaps and bounds. The only market share that matters is the total market share.

I think we need to reset our thinking on this.

We are rapidly approaching a point where the only thing that matters is what your EV market share is. Nobody cares how many flip phones you sold in 2012. Similarly, nobody is going to care how many ICE vehicles you sold in 2025.

I don’t think current market share trends are super meaningful though because too many companies are dumping product at a loss and because most consumers haven’t had time to develop product preferences. Maybe Ford took some EV “share” with the Mach-E, but the product is not sustainable (or desirable).

The big mistake here is trying to make projections based on those numbers when you don’t take into account other factors. Ford is smart getting their toe in the game and keeping it in the game, but until we can see how they perform after a few product iterations and with pricing headwinds, it’s unclear what the market will look like.

Very curious to see if the same people talking about Tesla “losing” share right now are talking about Tesla making massive market share gains in the truck market later in the year when the Cybertruck launches.

 

[betstarship]

I hope you will all forgive a minor off topic post. I think this shows how mainstream Starlink is becoming and has knock on effects to Tesla even if it isn't directly related.

If you can't tell by the layout/color scheme it's Home Depot.

Here's the link: STARLINK Standard Kit: High-Speed, Low-Latency Internet 02533005-510 - The Home Depot

 

[jerry33]

I think we need to reset our thinking on this.

We are rapidly approaching a point where the only thing that matters is what your EV market share is. Nobody cares how many flip phones you sold in 2012. Similarly, nobody is going to care how many ICE vehicles you sold in 2025.

I don’t think current market share trends are super meaningful though because too many companies are dumping product at a loss and because most consumers haven’t had time to develop product preferences. Maybe Ford took some EV “share” with the Mach-E, but the product is not sustainable (or desirable).

The big mistake here is trying to make projections based on those numbers when you don’t take into account other factors. Ford is smart getting their toe in the game and keeping it in the game, but until we can see how they perform after a few product iterations and with pricing headwinds, it’s unclear what the market will look like.

Very curious to see if the same people talking about Tesla “losing” share right now are talking about Tesla making massive market share gains in the truck market later in the year when the Cybertruck launches.

That will be true when EV penetration is, say, 75%. It's not true today.

 

[TesslaBull]

Regarding declining market share ... an important point that I haven't seen people talking about recently; only that Tesla is losing market share, how the competition is growing faster, and how Tesla can't sustain what it's got.

Tesla losing market share has been an inevitability from the beginning when they went off and got practically all of the market. The math makes any other outcome impossible. To make up some numbers to illustrate...

If Tesla sold 100 units in year 1 while the competition sold 10 units, then Tesla has 91% market share (10/11ths).

In year 2, Tesla grows 50% and sells 150 units. Meanwhile the competition goes nuts and sells 50 units. Tesla's growth in units is higher, but as a % Tesla grows 50% while competition grows 500%. OMG!

Then people project off these numbers and conclude that Tesla will grow to 225 in year 3, while competition grows to 250 in year 3.


I made up the numbers to illustrate the idea. The question I ask myself - who is going to add 1M units to their 2022 unit deliveries first and faster? Who is making the decisions, doing the engineering, doing the investment, etc.. to sustain or even increase their growth rate? Who out there has a chance of matching Tesla's growth rate once they clear 1M or 2M units? Heck - who is going to get to 1M units before 2030?

Growing at a high % off of nearly non-existent numbers is "easy". By "easy" I mean that effectively every car company since ~1900 that has tried to has gone bankrupt and mostly disappeared. We just assume that the current car companies can easily transition to EV manufacturing. But can they? Are EVs more like a new product / market that, like the ICEv market, is so difficult that virtually all entrants go bankrupt and fail at?

So far the economics and evidence I see is more consistent with this being a new market that exhibits characteristics of the car market - an important one being that new entrants (including incumbent ICEv manufacturers entering this new business) nearly all go bankrupt and fail at. As opposed to this being a new product line in the already existing car market - maybe it really is enough different that it isn't just a new product line in an existing market. H'mm...

But in the meantime, looking at growth rates, investors can get all excited about growing from 50k to 100k units in a year, and project out the inevitable demise of Tesla who can only grow at 1/2 or less of that rate.


Rate matter. Absolute numbers also matters, and a high rate off of small numbers is "easy".

I think the metric that matters most is % of the total market.

 

[LBM4]

Waiting for the bottom to hit? Can you share what SP that is so that we can all plan to short $TSLA and then buy back in after the bottom? TIA

Why would I share my secret?

 

[generalenthu]

That will be true when EV penetration is, say, 75%. It's not true today.

I am with @Ogre on this. To a significant extent this is already reflected in the valuations. I think Tesla is fairly valued here if you believe robotaxi is not a thing and FSD will never sell in significant numbers (street view), assuming some execution uncertainty.

Since shorting is not a huge thing across automakers and a lot of investors are sleepy, this is simply not reflected in the valuations of legacy auto.

It should normalize in the next 3 to 4 years as the winners and losers becomes clear and the execution uncertainty lifts, even assuming no progress towards autonomy.

 

[TrendTrader007]

60 minute TSLA chart indicates stock price could leap up any day now
NVDA just broke out today
$compq poised to take off
i am not interested in selling any calls at this time
sp could break out as early as tomorrow or anyday
very hard to know exactly when, but very very likely to go up pretty significantly
just my personal interpretation and i could be 100% wrong
not financial advice

 

[Webeevdrivers]

We run into a lot of folks who are waiting to order a model 3 long range. Are they waiting in vane or will tesla build these again once their is enough pent up demand. The whole situation seems weird. Is it a battery cell shortage that shut down production of the 3LR? I don’t stay up on this kind of stuff so be gentle on me.

Safe travels all.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Large development in Florida gives home buyers the option to upgrade to include Powerwalls and even a Tesla solar roof. I think James is being a little presumptuous here implying that all of them will have one, when it is just an optional upgrade. The total planned development is more than 10,000 homes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1653184702717599747

 

[TesslaBull]

We run into a lot of folks who are waiting to order a model 3 long range. Are they waiting in vane or will tesla build these again once their is enough pent up demand. The whole situation seems weird. Is it a battery cell shortage that shut down production of the 3LR? I don’t stay up on this kind of stuff so be gentle on me.

Safe travels all.

If M3P had been the only version available when I bought mine, I would not have purchased. Less range, rougher ride, more expensive tires, higher insurance...uggh no thanks. I settled for AWD but would have preferred a LR RWD version had it been available. I don't understand why Tesla isn't offering a LR RWD or AWD LR version. It has to be hurting sales.

 

[Tony73]

Large development in Florida gives home buyers the option to upgrade to include Powerwalls and even a Tesla solar roof. I think James is being a little presumptuous here implying that all of them will have one, when it is just an optional upgrade. The total planned development is more than 10,000 homes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1653184702717599747

Always wondered why solar roof didn’t have more traction in the new home market. A million new homes are built are in the US every year. Just 0.5% of that would revive the solar roof business.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Always wondered why solar roof didn’t have more traction in the new home market. A million new homes are built are in the US every year. Just 0.5% of that would revive the solar roof business.

Building industry is very cautious with new products. They don’t want to be struck with warranty repairs and/or lawsuits 5-10 years down the road.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

If M3P had been the only version available when I bought mine, I would not have purchased. Less range, rougher ride, more expensive tires, higher insurance...uggh no thanks. I settled for AWD but would have preferred a LR RWD version had it been available. I don't understand why Tesla isn't offering a LR RWD or AWD LR version. It has to be hurting sales.

Yah I agree. I don’t keep up with this stuff as much as a shareholder should but I would guess maybe some kind of supply chain issues. Only so many cells available??? No idea really.