Let's call it for what is was: a big miss on deliveries. Still pretty decent results for a difficult year.
Deliveries
2012: 2.7K
2013: 22.5K (+733.3%)
2014: 31.7K (+40.9%)
2015: 50.6K (+59.6%)
2016: 76.2K (+50.6%)
2017: 101.3K (+32.9%)
2018: 245.2K (+142.1%)
2019: 367.5K (+49.9%)
2020: 499.6K (+36%)
2021: 936.2K (+87.4%)
2022: 1.31 Million (+39.9%)
Imo what matters is not so much the results in a noisy world, what matters is what kind of company Tesla is. The same thing that got them from 2012 to 2022 will be the same thing that takes them from 2022 to 2030 unless something has changed. So what have we learned about Tesla this year?
It was a very challenging year and they didn't crumble, in fact they kept a pretty decent pace. That indicates that they handle difficult times well. They made money while growing, paid of debts, did long term investments(dojo, cathode, lithium refinery), new product development(bot) etc, imo that's pretty damn solid.
They were too optimistic about FSD timeline again, maybe they are just too optimistic about FSD, optimus etc. So maybe we should move those timelines forward in our estimates. Still they made solid gains and got real products into real customers hand. They stepped into the ring and let the audience see their weaknesses. That cannot be said for the competition who just showed some clips of them practicing. They get real useful feedback about their weaknesses and they iterate quick. This seems like a good fighter to bet on. Like
you should bet on the lion over a gorilla or a bear in fight.
How is competition doing? Except for BYD, some startups and some low cost brands pretty much everyone is struggling and they are nowhere near Tesla's growth. Some even see large declines. A pattern that will likely repeat a few more times until something changes.
Growth for 2023 should be a solid ~50% also, while they will have to work on preparing that ~50% for 2024 and 2025. They have done this many times before, they know how to do this so it shouldn't be to hard for them...
So overall I see 2022 confirming Tesla's trajectory and very little to indicate that something has changed.