I would be hard pressed to say whether the share price was more detached from reality in May/June of 2019 or right now, but I would lean towards 2019 being a bit more disconnected.
Taking into account how different Tesla is now, from the Tesla then, I would say the two periods are remarkably similar in terms of share price disconnect from reality, but it must be remembered that we are only about a third of the frothy all-time highs. In the bigger picture, that's not much. Countering the view that the all-time high was rather frothy is the fact that over a year of impressive growth has occurred in production capacity as well, with plenty more unrealized growth in capacity that is pretty much a given. If this is "all" there was, the market could almost be forgiven for the low valuation.
However, there is so much unrealized growth that Tesla has already proven is economically viable, lucrative even, just waiting on the sidelines. Namely, the energy business that is just beginning to show the shoots of new growth. Beyond simply selling battery storage, it's the energy networks like what Tesla is in the nascent stages of in Texas that I think offer nearly unlimited potential. Come spring, these shoots could grow into branches and then leaves which would be worthy of accommodating in growth models. And this will likely be followed up by surprising success in an entirely new automotive market segment, light trucks. If the manufacturing cost structure of Cybertruck pans out as expected, the results will blow away what pretty much every automotive analyst expects. Realized volumes of these new growth opportunities will all come down to the batteries so continue to watch the ramp of 4680 cells with the understanding that this is long-term initiative with long-term advantages, just as was revealed on Battery Day.
Personally, I see Tesla's success in these markets as pretty solid, high-probability results based upon how Tesla thinks about problems like this and their track record of being able to leverage their low-cost structure to implement the solutions they develop in a profitable manner. Additionally, every share of TSLA potentially contains huge potential value in things that I believe are still likely, even if less certain. Things like FSD and affordable humanoid robots that Tesla is currently hard at work developing in a cost-effective manner.
These things make the current walk-walk down of TSLA shares look quaint. No one knows when it will end, but my conviction is strong that this quarters growth and developments will have us climbing out of this hole, even if it takes a year or more to start testing old highs again. The big picture tells us that the world economy is in the transition from the age of oil and gas to an economy based on sustainable energy, not because we know we have to, but because it's increasingly cheaper and more affordable. The fact that we know we must make the transition simply provides additional tailwinds to the speed of the transition that is really driven by economics at its core. I can think of no other company that will benefit more strongly, and with more certainty than Tesla.
go ahead.
