Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Clearly, if you hadn't already surmised this, these structural batteries are DEFINITELY "no user serviceable parts inside"...or for that matter, "no serviceable parts inside, period". It might be nice if for whatever reason, if Tesla needed to replace something inside these packs, they could...but, alas, no way, no how. If anything inside these packs needs replacing, the entire pack needs to be replaced and the old one goes (literally) in the recycling chipper. As an owner=Under warranty, so what...after warranty, ouch! Very likely not even 3rd party options (ie Gruber motors). As a stockholder=Sure hope Tesla's quality control is amazing on these re:warranty claims. BTW- I'm sure Tesla knew this years ago, the moment they traded around the concept of a structural battery pack filled with structural adhesive.

That is really no different than the old packs. If it went wrong, it got replaced.

 

[henchman24]

Ironically, a much stronger than expected GDP print would probably cause the market to drop as it would mean the fed has more headroom to raise rates

The most likely outcome for Q2 is a small decline in GDP.

A strongly positive would likely do that, but the Fed just acknowledged softening so I'd say that is likely a very unlikely situation. What positive GDP would really do is that it would give more weight to guidances that are being held strong in the face of the economy. Instead of discounting them prior to earnings (like what just happened to Microsoft and Google).

 

[Christine69420]

I wonder how that pink adhesive reacts to a solvent like acetone.

They don't just chance it with a random solvent. They talk to the pro people and get something which dissolve without destroying the priced parts.

 

[thesmokingman]

Nice POP!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, JPow must have said something the Market really likes. TSLA up >$5 in <5min:

EDIT: Plus, this news must be a tailwind for chip-constrainted energy/auto/AI companies

U.S. Senate passes bill to boost chip manufacturing, compete with China | Reuters

Cheers!

 

[Matias]

So with more and more earnings coming out we can conclude that all doom-and-gloom predictions of the economy are widely overblown?

Way too early to say.

 

[canoemore]

Shouldn’t we be up like 8%? I wish someone had an explanation for this puzzling under-performance.

(done poking the StarBear)

 

[Singuy]

Powell said it'll make sense to slow the magnitude of rate increase as monetary policy tightens. Also mentions that production and spending are softening.

 

[elasalle]

Time to add some Nov Calls (and close on the swing back up) ~ cheers!!

binary events:
Fed meeting - this week
Tesla Share Holder conf and likely stock split decision - next week Aug 4th
+July CPI - inflation peaked ? - Aug 10th - 2weeks
AI Day
revised Credit rating?

Happy, closed with 28% gains

 

[dhanson865]

One thing I am pretty sure, is it doesn’t belong to this thread.

Apparently I was wrong. The way that went viral last night I thought the Mainstream Media would have a field day and TESLQ would be crowing. That the stock price would be affected by the news.

Looking for it today it's a non story. No one is talking about it.

I was wrong.

 

[Big Time]

His words "Front loading the rate increases"

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

How am I just as grumpy now as I was when markets opened this morning?

…………the fact that Tesla is easily being capped to underperform by quite a bit at this point. Should be up 7.5%……doesnt look like it can even hold a 6% gain

Consider me, not impressed

 

[Webeevdrivers]

That isn't true. All of the electronics, contactors, etc. that are in the "penthouse" section of the battery pack are serviceable. And they are what fails most often.

Sure, if a cell goes bad, the pack has to be replaced. But that is true of ALL Tesla packs. Not a single Tesla designed pack can be repaired after a cell goes bad.

Did not know that. Can the pack not be removed and the cell replaced?

 

[elasalle]

How am I just as grumpy now as I was when markets opened this morning?

…………the fact that Tesla is easily being capped to underperform by quite a bit at this point. Should be up 7.5%……doesnt look like it can even hold a 6% gain

Consider me, not impressed

Beta is killing you (try some Delta, Theta, Gamma, Vega .... instead)
When there's easy money to be made ... Strong QQQ often means mild TSLA ...
TSLA rips on it's own ... I think next week before Share Holder meet ....

 

[MP3Mike]

Did not know that. Can the pack not be removed and the cell replaced?

The pack can be removed, but individual cells can't be removed without causing damage. And even if you could you couldn't find a cell that would match close enough to the rest of the cells in terms of capacity, internal resistance, etc. for the repair to last long term.

 

[henchman24]

How am I just as grumpy now as I was when markets opened this morning?

…………the fact that Tesla is easily being capped to underperform by quite a bit at this point. Should be up 7.5%……doesnt look like it can even hold a 6% gain

Consider me, not impressed

I mean... you were stating no way TSLA closes this week over 805 and if GDP is reasonable, we easily will... and you're still unhappy?

 

[SmokyPeat]

Fill the cavity with a solvent, what does that do to the cells? Is the solvent conductive? What happens when you fill a battery pack with a fluid of unknown conductivity?

When Tesla recycles the pack, they likely won't care that the components are destroyed or compromised because they are trying to get the raw materials out of it. Sandy needs to recover components which they can analyze (and sell! LOL).

Pack might be easy to break down if you are recycling, but you have to be a lot more cautious if you are trying to salvage working bits from it.

I'm certain the conductivity of most common solvents is well known. You'd probably want to discharge the pack first. I'm just thinking it may not be as impossible to salvage good 4680 cells from an old pack when the time comes as some are theorizing. But maybe they're right, and wholesale destruction & recycling will be the only feasible option.

 

[StealthP3D]

Way too early to say.

It's always too early to say whether the economy will hit a giant sink hole until it's already in the hole. We don't find out until it's already happening. Which is why trying to predict where the speedbumps might be is a losing strategy. You will leave the best gains on the table if you focus too much on the speedbumps along the way. The investors with the highest returns are not skittish, they have conviction that the system continues to chug along.

I've been listening to people predict imminent market/economy/government solvency doom and gloom for over 30 years. In that same timeframe I have profited heavily by ignoring it all. If anything, doom and gloom is a reason to move money from threatened, slow growing interests, or those actually shrinking, into companies like Tesla that are growing based on many of the "negatives" that threaten the economy and that are causing big established interests to contract.

The biggest misconception about Tesla, and it exists right here on this thread to a certain degree, is that Tesla is a high-priced luxury provider, one that depends upon a strong economy to maintain its niche selling expensive cars to environmentally minded people with money. And that when the economy chills, Tesla sales will fall. Some people have completely over-looked that Tesla is re-writing the rules for auto manufacturing (including sales and delivery) and this manifests itself by giving Tesla the most pricing power in the industry. As production grows, this will eventually lead to drastically decreased prices for people who buy new cars. The good news for Tesla, and the bad news for new car buyers, is it's probably going to take a long time to meet all the pent-up demand. Sure, a serious and deep recession would cause new cars sales to contract strongly and Tesla to lower prices much more quickly than if the economy remains strong, but it wouldn't seriously impact Tesla's scaling of production and sales. What it would do is hasten the demise of manufacturers lacking strong pricing power.

A serious recession would make it clear to all who the real leader is, and actually speed the transition to EV's by gutting sales of new ICE vehicles in dramatic fashion. Economic turmoil hastens change. That's not to say I expect a serious recession, I actually think the economy has more pushing it forward than holding it back.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I mean... you were stating no way TSLA closes this week over 805 and if GDP is reasonable, we easily will... and you're still unhappy?

I can’t control the macros. If the macros pop up 5% then that changes things for obvious reasons. I have zero clue how anyone is happy about TSLA vastly underperforming it’s beta today after an entire quarter of wall st bashing the hell out of Tesla’s image

But even with the Nasdaq up 4%, not even remotely difficult for MM’s to keep the stock in check. In fact, I’ll say TSLA still closes at 805 for the week even with the macros rallying. MM’s can cap TSLA on a day where the Nasdaq is up 4%? They can easily walk it down from 822 to 805 over the next two days

 

[PeterJA]

How am I just as grumpy now as I was when markets opened this morning?

…………the fact that Tesla is easily being capped to underperform by quite a bit at this point. Should be up 7.5%……doesnt look like it can even hold a 6% gain....

Well, now we know why. Most analysts and big buyers live in big cities.

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