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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Except that what other company will match Tesla's earnings this quarter? TSLA should be 2-5X the market going up at this point, not down....

It's fear in the market, in general. After what happened with NFLX earlier, FB last quarter, and many others missing earnings and with bad guidance, the big boys are sitting on the sidelines, and retail and other small traders are exiting the market to wait to re-enter after earnings.

That means even with TSLA having great earnings and forecast, many investors would rather sit on the sidelines to see if the market has "hit bottom" before coming back in.

I don't agree with it, I'm buying TSLA as much as possible, but that's my read on it. And even with a 3.5X multiple, it's not that far out of line for TSLA on a drop. TSLA tends to drop more than it's beta on drops, and rise less than it's beta on a pop. There are of course exceptions.
 
Some macro thoughts regarding a rebound from this....

GOOG earnings are literally today. Expectations were already very low. Shares down 2.6% after being up 3% yesterday.

Why would TWTR shares be down today? Are people look g at TSLA and thinking the deal won't go thru? Another great indicator of how illogical this market can be....people are selling out of arbitrage.
 
Hope not. If the CEO of Tesla thinks a dollar invested in TWTR is worth more than investing that same dollar in TSLA it sends a pretty rotten message.

It could make sense for Elon to sell some additional shares at current prices to deleverage his purchase of Twitter but I really don't think that's a big part (or necessarily any part) of what is happening now. We will know soon enough as he would have to file with the SEC but this kind of move is easily explained by the overall macro and general investor uncertainty with Tesla/Twitter/markets etc. IMO, this downdraft has been in the making if you follow the recent increase of anti-Tesla and anti-Elon Musk sentiment being published over the last couple of weeks. It's just another attack that will fail to meaningfully slow Tesla down. In fact, these kinds of attacks can help galvanize employees and provide incentives for TSLA to outperform.

Remember, while this reduces what you could sell your TSLA shares for right now, it's irrelevant if you are not selling your TSLA shares right now and share price depreciation over these kinds of uncertainties can reverse quickly once investors feel less uncertainty. It could point to a larger, longer-lasting macro re-pricing but, if that happens, Tesla will become a flight to safety and the kind of stock people want to own because many companies will find growth difficult in trying economic times. In fact, protection against economic uncertainty is precisely why I own so much TSLA.

Watch how this plays out on a medium time scale and you will see what I mean. There were too many TSLA investors that were too leveraged and this re-pricing event will clear them out and create a broader shareholder base going forward.
 
The sale of Twitter doesn’t happen until the end of 2022. You get Elon hasn’t taken that margin loan correct? And he won’t until the buyout officially goes through after oversight is done
Thanks. I didn't know the timing (end of 2022) and I doubted this drop was enough, but thought the question worth asking to see the explanations others would offer
 
You might want to adjust that by a couple of dollars. 200 day SMA is 901.07 if it gets there, also very close to triggering the 10% uptick rule.
Yep, that is my buy point.

The rule is that anytime TSLA goes below the 200 day MA it is a good time to buy stonk.... or sell puts ;)
 
It could make sense for Elon to sell some additional shares at current prices to deleverage his purchase of Twitter but I really don't think that's a big part (or necessarily any part) of what is happening now. We will know soon enough as he would have to file with the SEC but this kind of move is easily explained by the overall macro and general investor uncertainty with Tesla/Twitter/markets etc. IMO, this downdraft has been in the making if you follow the recent increase of anti-Tesla and anti-Elon Musk sentiment being published over the last couple of weeks. It's just another attack that will fail to meaningfully slow Tesla down. In fact, these kinds of attacks can help galvanize employees and provide incentives for TSLA to outperform.

Remember, while this reduces what you could sell your TSLA shares for right now, it's irrelevant if you are not selling your TSLA shares right now and share price depreciation over these kinds of uncertainties can reverse quickly once investors feel less uncertainty. It could point to a larger, longer-lasting macro re-pricing but, if that happens, Tesla will become a flight to safety and the kind of stock people want to own because many companies will find growth difficult in trying economic times. In fact, protection against economic uncertainty is precisely why I own so much TSLA.

Watch how this plays out on a medium time scale and you will see what I mean. There were too many TSLA investors that were too leveraged and this re-pricing event will clear them out and create a broader shareholder base going forward.
100% Facts......for me, i am just holding out for the 20:1, 10:1 or whatever split because i like more slices of pizza :p
 
Thanks. I didn't know the timing (end of 2022) and I doubted this drop was enough, but thought the question worth asking to see the explanations others would offer
Btw the number TSLA would need to go down on that margin loan is about 400-450/share.

The number of 500/share I’ve seen floated around is using incorrect numbers/math