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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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It's interesting reading the posts from #6500 - 7000. a $600-900 price tag seemed normal. But, for those who haven't gussed, this was early 2020, pre-pandemic, pre-split. Relatively (because of the 7:1 split) the price in "old money" is actually about 5600 now and has been as high as 8500! To think back then people thought 1000 was a super-high dream! Just shows how far Tesla went above P/E - and at 300x P/E now - how high it is. I know we can say in 5-10 years the P/E might fall to 30 or 40. But for a long time a P/E of 10 was average, 15 was high and 30 was exceptional. Shares were not valued at a hopeful P/E 10 years in the future. This is why there is such swings in the share price. And when things like interest rate rises and Elon getting distracted by things - then people get nervous. Lots of silly money got in the stock market. RobinHood to $100bn valuation. Rivian to $250bn. Coinbase to $50bn. Lyft, Ubers to $100bn's. So many crazy stocks that have crazy valuations, massive cashburn, negative earnings. Some will become Amazon's - but 3/4 won't and might fail. Back in 2021 on the way down people like Cathie Woods yelled about how cheap tech stocks were, the veritable bargains. There is a British saying about trying to catch a falling knife. Tesla was under-valued in 2018-2020, it's been over-valued in 2021-2022 imho. The 10-15yr graph for a lot of companies shows how much we spiked in 2021.
I can see Tesla spending most of the year drifting down to the 600s (post-split price), possibly lower as the froth comes off the tech boom. Bigger, more diverse companies like Amazon, Apple, Msft, Google's, will just drift horizontally for a year or so.
I'm also in the camp that FSD will never be accepted in the medium term and will remain sold to only about 30% of customers - most with more money than sense (people that tick every option without even thinking what they are). But given the incremental cost of FSD being sold to another person is near $0 vs selling somebody AWD vs RWD is maybe $1500 in parts, well, Elon will keep pushing FSD until he's blue in the face!!!
 
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Tesla is already famously known as being like 12 startup companies operating as one. Why is Teslabot different? It's primary use will be in manufacturing, and likely even as SuperCharger charging attendants vs. 'Snake-charger'. Teslabot is a natural fit, forfills a current need, and is built from solid, pre-existing technology.
More importantly, they will keep the SuperCharger locations clean and tidy.
 
It's interesting reading the posts from #6500 - 7000. a $600-900 price tag seemed normal. But, for those who haven't gussed, this was early 2020, pre-pandemic, pre-split. Relatively (because of the 7:1 split) the price in "old money" is actually about 5600 now and has been as high as 8500! To think back then people thought 1000 was a super-high dream! Just shows how far Tesla went above P/E - and at 300x P/E now - how high it is. I know we can say in 5-10 years the P/E might fall to 30 or 40. But for a long time a P/E of 10 was average, 15 was high and 30 was exceptional. Shares were not valued at a hopeful P/E 10 years in the future. This is why there is such swings in the share price. And when things like interest rate rises and Elon getting distracted by things - then people get nervous. Lots of silly money got in the stock market. RobinHood to $100bn valuation. Rivian to $250bn. Coinbase to $50bn. Lyft, Ubers to $100bn's. So many crazy stocks that have crazy valuations, massive cashburn, negative earnings. Some will become Amazon's - but 3/4 won't and might fail. Back in 2021 on the way down people like Cathie Woods yelled about how cheap tech stocks were, the veritable bargains. There is a British saying about trying to catch a falling knife. Tesla was under-valued in 2018-2020, it's been over-valued in 2021-2022 imho. The 10-15yr graph for a lot of companies shows how much we spiked in 2021.
I can see Tesla spending most of the year drifting down to the 600s (post-split price), possibly lower as the froth comes off the tech boom. Bigger, more diverse companies like Amazon, Apple, Msft, Google's, will just drift horizontally for a year or so.
I'm also in the camp that FSD will never be accepted in the medium term and will remain sold to only about 30% of customers - most with more money than sense (people that tick every option without even thinking what they are). But given the incremental cost of FSD being sold to another person is near $0 vs selling somebody AWD vs RWD is maybe $1500 in parts, well, Elon will keep pushing FSD until he's blue in the face!!!

"I know we can say in 5-10 years the P/E might fall to 30 or 40." ?

Forward P/E is 55 now..
 
I wrote a critical post yesterday regarding my disdain for Elon speaking at the ER (and the carnage that ensued) and a desire for him to not do that again in future.

Not unexpectedly it received many downvotes and some ridicule.
The ridicule was centered on the last part of my post related to the fact that I trade options to generate some income, and many were suggestions that if I don't like it, I should sell and go away.
No one bothered to engage with the actual comment I was making.

I've slept on it.

And I stand firm by my comment: Elon should be banned from talking at ERs - Zach should do all the talking.
Product road-maps, etc. should be given alternative platform where Elon can talk. He does so anyways on Twitter to his 71M followers, podcasts, interviews etc.

To be clear: I am 100% all-in on TSLA. It is the only stock I own and, apart from my home, my only asset.

My ASP is in the $170 region and I've never sold a share - I would suggest that this qualifies me as a HODLer, especially in the eyes of the "if you don't like it, sell" crowd here.
I have a full-time job, a family with two kids, and I trade options on TSLA to generate additional income. I use a part of this income to add to my TSLA position. I always make bullish trades - means, I am bullish on TSLA and attempt to profit from those that are not. If anyone cares, you can head over to the other thread and see my posts there - I'm not a high-risk trader.

In the days leading up to ER, the close we got, the number of you here - and many of the long-term, high frequency posters included - were posting (humorous?) comments about being afraid of what would happen if Elon said the wrong thing during the ER.

And then he goes and does just that - and a critical post on just the carnage that that caused is shot down by the very same posters.

I really think many of us who are on TMC a lot forget that we are in this hyper-informed, hyper-concentrated microcosmos of Tesla / TSLA. The amount of information (good and bad) that is disseminated here is staggering. It is far beyond what 99% of TSLA investors have access to. It provides outstanding levels of depth and insight, and a truly 4D-chess level of differing views and opinions. Some of you have been HODL'ing since IPO (or before?), some of you worked in meaningful positions at TSLA, some of you have had very long lives with impressive experience which you share here, the very large majority of us are fanbois of Elon, Tesla, SpaceX etc (myself included), and we all believe that this is the single greatest company of our times and the investment of a life-time. I do not believe Elon is responsible for generating or losing my income. That is on me.

A generational investment. I buy TSLA for the benefit of my kids.

I stand by my opinion that for 99% of investors out there, the TMC microcosmos of information does NOT inform their decision making.
Institutionals, analysts, etc. base the majority of their opinion on dry numbers presented in ERs etc. , and the media (which as we all agree is predominantly biased against Tesla - and let's not talk politics) provides the color to the mass of TSLA investors. We are not the mass.

As such, when Elon comes on an ER call - which ostensibly has the purpose of periodically informing shareholders on Tesla's financial performance along with income statement, cash flow statement, and balance sheets, usually comparing QoQ or YoY, and providing an outlook for the next period - and talks over the topic on hand, everyone on TMC goes nuts, because this is exactly the information we like to receive, we need to hear, it confirms our bull-cases and opinions.

It does not translate well to the actual audience of the ER call. It does not translate well to 99% of investors that consume this information through the media.

The result is that the consumers of this media read: Robots!?, FSD, no Cybertruck, no cheap Tesla, production is hard, supply chain issues. And we experience carnage the day after ER, over 10% down, uptick-rule triggered. Yes, a lot of this is macro and algos (that feed off of the ER and media - 100% not off of posts on TMC), short-sellers, market-makers, bears, hedge-funds, etc. But at the end of the day, there are more sellers than buyers and so the SP is obliterated. Folks that are new shareholders in TSLA see their holdings in negative territory.

These consumers of media do not read: $2.8BN cash flow, 50% YoY growth, $2.87 EPS (if you back out the one-times), over 50% growth projections, the highest margin of all automakers, an unbelievable average cost of production per car, no more cell constraints, two other GigaFactories opening soon - I could go on, but all of you know this better than I do.

So, allow me - and those that did not downvote or ridicule my post - an angry opinion on what was a disastrous earnings call, if measured by the purpose of an earnings call. A call that should have been run by Zach and focussed on the stellar results and the stellar outlook, and should have provided honest, market-calming answers to the questions posed. By shareholders.

The market does not get Robotaxis, FSD, Optimus sub-prime. The market does not want vaporware. The market wants to see in the dry boring numbers a reasonable, plausible way to calculate the projected 50% YoY growth that was presented, based on tangible goods and services they can see Tesla selling today.


Bombs away. I don't care.
Wanting something that isn’t in your control to make happen AND knowing (with just a modicum of thought) that it bloody well isn’t going to happen AND depending on it not to happen AND doubling down by betting on it not happening AND then blaming someone else for the outcome AND stomping your feet like a petulant child is illogical, unreasonable and immature.

There, I addressed it for you. You can be as ‘critical’ as you want and embrace an angry or otherwise opinion and it still won’t change the outcome. You messed up. You thought you knew better. You put something on the line that you didn’t want to lose and you have no one to blame but yourself. Learn your lesson or don’t.
 
Elon has talked about population decline as a serious long term threat.
Combine Neuralink with Tesla-bot, and we all get to live forever!
thinking too small, think hundreds, even thousands, packed into a Boring company compartment of a starship. Neuralinked avatars; deployed to mine asteroids/worlds, begin terra forming if applicable, build habitats, gather whatever resources are needed to continue exploration, etc., connected to user(s) via satellites plotted along the ever expanding territories (star-Links).
 
It's interesting reading the posts from #6500 - 7000. a $600-900 price tag seemed normal. But, for those who haven't gussed, this was early 2020, pre-pandemic, pre-split. Relatively (because of the 7:1 split) the price in "old money" is actually about 5600 now and has been as high as 8500! To think back then people thought 1000 was a super-high dream! Just shows how far Tesla went above P/E - and at 300x P/E now - how high it is. I know we can say in 5-10 years the P/E might fall to 30 or 40. But for a long time a P/E of 10 was average, 15 was high and 30 was exceptional. Shares were not valued at a hopeful P/E 10 years in the future. This is why there is such swings in the share price. And when things like interest rate rises and Elon getting distracted by things - then people get nervous. Lots of silly money got in the stock market. RobinHood to $100bn valuation. Rivian to $250bn. Coinbase to $50bn. Lyft, Ubers to $100bn's. So many crazy stocks that have crazy valuations, massive cashburn, negative earnings. Some will become Amazon's - but 3/4 won't and might fail. Back in 2021 on the way down people like Cathie Woods yelled about how cheap tech stocks were, the veritable bargains. There is a British saying about trying to catch a falling knife. Tesla was under-valued in 2018-2020, it's been over-valued in 2021-2022 imho. The 10-15yr graph for a lot of companies shows how much we spiked in 2021.
I can see Tesla spending most of the year drifting down to the 600s (post-split price), possibly lower as the froth comes off the tech boom. Bigger, more diverse companies like Amazon, Apple, Msft, Google's, will just drift horizontally for a year or so.

It was actually a 5:1 split, not a 7:1?

Also, a P/E didn't exist for TSLA until Q2 2020 earnings were released on July 22nd, 2020. At the close on that day (right before the earnings release), the stock price was a pre-split value of $1592.33 ($318.466 post-split equivalent). Tesla's P/E at that exact moment when Tesla finally had it's initial PE, was 758.

P/E means nothing the exact moment any company initially earns it's P/E ratio. It's practically guaranteed to be astronomical since the divisor in the P/E ratio is almost guaranteed to be an incredibly tiny number above 0 when a company first earns it's P/E ratio.
 
You speak the truth.

I found Elons vision exciting.. but I cingred when he spoke at the ER.

Focus on ER cant be on stuff that market does not believe in or think is possible. That is a reciept for disaster (short term)..

It would have been enough to explain why focus had to be on volume production of their current models.
Was very nice to hear tha 50%+ growth this year will be easy, - just based on two factories, and news factories would be announced later this year.

Thats it..

FSD and Optimus? Do separate reveals when these are a fact.

Market has little to no imagination and vision. Elon has vision, and I get his vision - it even blows my mind. Market - which struggle to understand exponential growth does not..
Despite what you think or want, clearly ER calls can be about whatever Elon wants them to be about and he doesn’t care about the market’s imagination. CLEARLY!

I know it’s not your first day here, so I’m a bit confused why you’re posting like it is.
 
Something I read on twitter made me think:

There are 3 possible reasons for the earnings reaction (in terms of what analysts heard)
- No new models in 2022
- Lingering supply chain issues
- Focus shifting away from EV

Based on all EV stocks selling off in tandem with TSLA I think the biggest reason was the supply chain, since that is the only one that would negatively affect the competition. The other two would actually help the competition.

Ok so if supply chain is the worry… well Apple mentioned on their call today that they see improvement with the supply chain issues already. Apple has a lot of credibility.

Based on all this, it seems like the fear should ease a bit and the buying can start.

On the flip side, the decline in those stocks could just be purely macro.

Thoughts?
I view what you labelled “Tesla shifting away from EVs” the same way as “Amazon shifting away from online sales”. They started AWS which is a HUGE contributor to their bottom line, while still ramping their online sales. I don’t think Tesla will stop building/selling EVs, but their shift to AI will have a huge impact on the company and its financials.
 
A few slightly positive observations

TSLA price targets from prominent firms have not gone down, only up or unchanged

Ark started buying TSLA, albeit modestly

TSLA ~reached the 200 ma support level

TSLA usually recovers the day after tripping -10% circuit breaker

COVID cases reported to cdc in the US are trending down

Bitcoin has stabilized, ~ flat past few days

All the cool kids know TSLA <$1,000 is a bargain ✌️
 
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It seems to me that the Optimus Sub Prime development project is not closely aligned with mission of Tesla. Some will disagree of course.

It may be prudent to consider possible scenarios where this project is split off as a separate business entity in order to more properly recognize value.

Would this make sense and how would Tesla shareholders benefit If this made sense?
Nope.
 
Just took a look and Max pain is @1K

Is this what others are seeing?
I see 950 with put spikes at 800 and 850. No call spikes till 900.
Stock Option Max Pain
SmartSelect_20220128-080709_Firefox.jpg
 
TSLA pre-Market bear(ly) raid began right at the 7 a.m. whistle, quickly driving SP down from ~$832 to touch the 200-Day Moving Average (est'd to be ~$814.49 at the Open)

Pre-Market Low : $814.5 (07:46:35 AM)

TSLA.2022-01-28.07-44.Lo+MA-200.png


Ba-haha-Aha! Exactly as predicted. In November. :p

Cheers!

P.S. a little bounce now to about $820ish, but the Open is when the rubber meats the road...
 
Just took a look and Max pain is @1K

Is this what others are seeing?
seeing 950 and max pain doesn't matter today.

14K puts at 800
10K puts at 850

with retail wanting to be the house, have the MM become the buyers ? :)
Once the shorts buy back enough of the shares, they will be ready to let it rise and sell CC on the way up ...

We need some big Whale Action (+ all whale needs to do is buy a heavy amount of calls that shows up on the ticker - what better way to AI, bot proof your portfolio ;) )

Macros bad, Ukraine/Russia. and we have PCE inflation report at 8:30 today
Fed rate hike baked in ... seems oversold. But it can remain irrational longer than ...

No Child credits etc for Jan, so let's see where inflation ends up next month. cheers!!


Tesla Catalysts:
Where is the Austin GF launch party ... team really needs a morale booster ... we need a tweet to undo the conf call dialogue.
4680 starts a new phase in EV's. Let's see how competition keeps up in the cost dept.
Everyone pessimistic on Berlin GF, but we have already been delayed by over 6 mths ... how long can the stalemate last? Elon is supposed to be there Feburary. If tesla cannot sell the 2000 cars produced, they should give it to the employees with some incentive and let them drive around Town. Use for transport to/from Berlin while waiting for train line :)

cheers
 
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I can't say how long it will take for the price to recover, but eventually reality will start to sink in and the price will get bid back up. My feeling is Elon purposefully disenfranchised anyone too idiotic to see what is happening right before their eyes. He really doesn't give a flying frack because he doesn't want to work for people like that (yes, he works for shareholders). He knows he is going to make a lot of people very wealthy and he thinks it's better if it goes to the kind of people he likes rather than those he despises. The beauty of all this is it didn't require anything but pure honesty from Elon. Sure, he might have hammed it up a little bit but essentially, he was giving us the straight scoop on how nutty the profits are going to be and giving the finger to those he doesn't like.
Confession
I'll use a paragraph of your very good post to make a confession.

When the Cybertruck was revealed in Nov 2019, I was sick to my stomach watching it. I was angry at Elon for messing with my investment dollars.
The next day when the stock dropped 6%, my anger grew.
But then something changed. As I started to read and listen to different perspectives, I began to see what Elon saw all along. The Cybertruck was a game-changer . . . .and this is why I had originally invested in Tesla . . .not a "me too" company, but a Disruptor. Others started to see this too and the stock recovered (and of course has continued higher).

Now to the earnings call Wednesday. This was suppose to be a blow out quarter. I was hoping the earnings call would go the way of Nadella's Microsoft call where the stock rose during the call. . . .and then we got humanoid bots, you don't understand the value of FSD, no new products this year, etc.
I was once again angry at Elon. And when the stock dropped the next day by 12%, my anger grew.

Now that I have read and listened to other perspectives, just like with the Cybertruck reveal, my anger has gone away and I am now more bullish then ever.

Optimus: My CEO Still Has the Innovation Mojo
I learned from the call that an Optimus product launch may be sooner than I had thought. In my financial models I would have put the the launch of an AI product (other than FSD) in years 8-10. The emphasis on Optimus during the call demonstrated to me Elon's commitment to this and I now believe that a product will be revealed closer to the 4-5 year portion of my model than the 8-10 years. This is a new revenue stream with a lower reliance on battery supply than the Auto and Energy business. Now I can finally see how revenues can continue to grow 50% or higher out in years 5,6, 7.

A Focus on Execution
Extraordinary 2022 Financial Results are a certainty. Elon and Zach revealed that Shanghai and Fremont can provide 50% growth. That's 1.4m cars.
With Berlin/Austin, we can get to 1.65m . .that's 76% growth. And with no distraction from Cybertruck/Semi, the Austin ramp will surprise the most bullish investors. I had $14 non-GAAP EPS for 2022 but we can perhaps see $16 in 2022 (vs $6.78 in 2021)

FSD - Elon Wouldn't Shut Up About It
There was something different about this. This was not just Elon over-promising as in the past; we heard Elon frustrated that analysts did not understand the breakthrough and value arriving. Elon has more information on FSD than we; he sees what we can't. My gut tells me that some autonomy skeptics will start to believe in autonomy this year.

I'm feeling better today - the stock will recover and move higher . . . be patient.