Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

Been told by person on internet who keeps in contact with 2 people(one from Berlin and one from Austin) that Berlin will start Dec 1st and Austin will start Dec 9th

Dec 1 is tomorrow. Wouldn't we have already heard/seen specific needed approvals by now for a start of production tomorrow?

 

[SOULPEDL]

This post is worthy of Particular Merit.

Most of us probably think, "of course I knew that". But I didn't. Just imagine how important it is to eliminate fuses. Cost go down, reliability goes up, efficiency rises as less electricity is used running through fuses. Diagnosis and repair can happen OTA. This seems a very important competitive advantage for Tesla.

I hadn't even thought about where the fuse box is until now, lol.

This is a great example of 1st principle. They eliminated not just cost, space, or weight, but efficiency as you say. And I might add, it is way better than a blown fuse design. Any circuit that melts a wire (fuse) rated at 15A is in trouble if it even goes there. It likely melted some other connections, or pitted contacts etc...

Tesla could be using auto resettable fuses which can be very tiny on a circuit board (think 2x3mm small). They cost more than the fuse and I've used them. I don't know if we'd know this without a component teardown though.

 

[Krugerrand]

Been told by person on internet who keeps in contact with 2 people(one from Berlin and one from Austin) that Berlin will start Dec 1st and Austin will start Dec 9th

Noooooo! #teamAustin. I don’t want to be wrong by a lousy eight days.

 

[Ogre]

This “rumor” of Tesla buying SpaceX is ridiculous. The last thing Elon wants is to have SpaceX scrutinized on a quarterly basis and short term decisions made. Much more likely is that he will use a portion of his 10% Tesla stock sale to invest more into SpaceX to get through the current Raptor crisis. Once Starships are lofting v2.0 Starlink sats into orbit and millions of dishes have been sold, then SpaceX spins out Starlink in 2-3 years in a big fat IPO. SpaceX itself remains private.

I’m neither here nor there on this rumor, but I just want to point out that wholly owned subsidiaries often get little to no scrutiny in earnings. Berkshire Hathaway owns dozens of companies and aside from general market trends those subsidiaries are largely immune to market scrutiny.

Unless SpaceX lost enough money or made enough money to materially affect Tesla’s earnings, it would be largely ignored by Wall Street.

The bigger issues are simply the legal issues around the acquisition itself. If it were to come onboard, it would disappear on Tesla’s financial statements.

 

[Drumheller]

This post is worthy of Particular Merit.

Most of us probably think, "of course I knew that". But I didn't. Just imagine how important it is to eliminate fuses. Cost go down, reliability goes up, efficiency rises as less electricity is used running through fuses. Diagnosis and repair can happen OTA. This seems a very important competitive advantage for Tesla.

I don't think it's accurate. Teslas do not have any 12 volt fuses but they do have at least one Pyro fuse on the battery. I managed to blow mine in my 2013 model s. Techs were surprised and said I shouldn't have been able to do that.

I do like spirited driving. If only I could convince Tesla to let me be a tester for their new vehicles.

 

[Drumheller]

Noooooo! #teamAustin. I don’t want to be wrong by a lousy eight days.

Contact family. Ask them to drop some raw meat on site. Then file a petition to investigate the relocation and preservation of the maggot species.

Should buy you 6 more months.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Nope..... I think of him as Elmer Fudd (There is strong indication that just as we use "FUD" today back when Mr Fudd was assigned a name it was from the commonly used word back then of Befuddled. Who knows if our term, FUD, when first cast was done so with the understanding of how close it was to beFUDdle. It was not coincidence. And then for so many years later for this analyst to embody Elmer Fudd in every way, and to be so spot on even down to his physical characteristics...
I am flabbergasted, amazed. I ask but one question to make sense of this, Are we in a simulation!

From an online Dictionary--
Befuddle: to confuse, as with glib statements or arguments.
Example: politicians befuddling the public with campaign promises.

Gentlemen (and the Majority that is not included under "Gentlemen") I bring you my greatest accomplishment as an ant of all thing TSLA. This is by far one of the most "everything" posts ever offered on TMC... by any ant.
I wish even those that have me on ignore would read this in its entirety. I think even Jbacarioca will quiz his research team on the merits and details.
This, well stop and absorb it, read it, digest it fully, sip it as if a single malt, drain the glass as if beer, chew it as a dying man eats leather... The youngest and oldest amongst us will each question, how?
Take some time... Craig Irwin is a simulation of a simulation. But that isn't even the most interesting thing....

Elmer Fudd, capitalist shill: The auto industry finances Looney-Tunes propaganda, 1950s

FUD is scottish for lady front bottom. Just saying.......

 

[jhm]

Many people have asked me "why don't they put solar on cars."

I want frickin' laser beams on my CT.

 

[Nocturnal]

Been told by person on internet who keeps in contact with 2 people(one from Berlin and one from Austin) that Berlin will start Dec 1st and Austin will start Dec 9th

12/9 you say?

Just some Soap Box derby thinking but..
put flexible carpet roll of it right in-line with the bumper or fender so it can be out of the way AND become part of the collision safety structure. When it is rolled out it can be "rolled" over the vehicle.
Originally I was day-dreaming about a soldier or group of soldiers that could travel without footprints or sound on beefy but low-speed terrain motorcycles with solar packs consisting of a parachute-like material that was also camo. In an area like the Middle east the "scouts" could ride by night with a large volume of kit, and sleep under the solar parachute during the day next to their bikes. If a "solar car cover" could be produced?

Similar things do exist. How about this. It's a rolled up panel that stores in the bed, perhaps in the vault even. To use it you just attach a small cable from a mini winch in the front of the truck and it unfolds the roll, covering the bed/roof/windshield. Useful? IDK. Cool? Yes.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Stellantis has more EV in production than do either GM or Ford. Among TMC a North American bias is perhaps understandable but...
Stellantis now produces more than 17 distinct BEV models with roughly 30 nameplates that have some differences. For example their are Fiat, Opel and Vauxhall medium sized delivery trucks on the identical platform but with different battery and motor combinations.

Several of those are in segments in which Stellantis has very high market shares in Europe.

So please, when writing off Tesla competitors do a little homework.
Today the leading innovations around the world are coming from:
1. a variety of EU offerings that are largely split among smaller cars, a wide variety of trucks, mostly urban delivery and general use vehicles plus a wide variety of municipal and industrial vehicles.
2. a wide array of Chinese brands and vehicles in every category.

Then there is Tesla. There is nobody comparable to Tesla. We all know ti. We are foolish to assume every OEM will fail because Ford and GM are so bad. Clearly Stellantis is not stellar in the US but it is doing a pretty decent job in the EU and a few other countries.

BY looking only at US Brands we ignore progress made by major US OEM's that have non-US origins. Thus we dismiss Hyundai/Kia, not too wise to omit them, they're progressing quickly. Then Toyota that we love to hate, but Toyota is not only the US market and worldwide leader but they are 'quintessentially American" which is to say they'll explore every possible option before finally doing the right thing. Nissan/Renault/Mistubishi is another one easy to write off. Another error.

I write this now, as we are about to see Tesla do another unprecedented annual result and open two new GigaFactories. They will be hugely successful and I'll be thrilled that I have not sold TSLA shares. Tesla, by their outsized success is drawing inexorably the world's OEMs along. Tesla has inspired governments to accelerate their entire clean energy and clean energy using economies.

Thus we need to cheer those others along, just as Elon does. Tesla cannot succeed in the mission if other OEMs do not succeed also.

Yuk ! Stellantis is NOT making any decent EVs in europe. Most are compliance retrofits of old ICE models that are not competitive at all with even the VAG ID platform. They have bought some washing machine motors from whirlpool and some dodgy pouch batteries from alibaba /s. Numbers sold is rubbish apart from the FIAT500 in Italy, which I quite like the posh e-cabriolet, but is still a crazy price for what you get. Tesla drops its price at all after Berlin opens then the game is over. China is going to eat Stellantis too. The MG is popular now, but that is just the beginning.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Been told by person on internet who keeps in contact with 2 people(one from Berlin and one from Austin) that Berlin will start Dec 1st and Austin will start Dec 9th

Not being completely "up to date" on today's date exactly, I checked a nearby calendar.

Uh... that's Berlin opening tomorrow?

 

[StealthP3D]

Here is Craig Irwin at Roth Capital explaining a $150 price target and “Neutral” rating one month ago. His reasons for the neutral rating are India and the Model 2.

Craig Irwin doesn't look well. I'm surprised CNBC doesn't have a policy against putting people on live TV that look like they are seriously ill.

Craig Irwin actually looked a lot healthier and happier when he had an "Outperform" rating on Tesla back in 2013 when he was with Wedbush:

Why I upgraded Tesla stock: Wedbush analyst

"These guys are going to keep executing, keep making expectations for the foreseeable future," says Craig Irwin of Wedbush Securities.

www.cnbc.com

Somewhere between then and now something went horribly wrong with him and he looks like he is in a living hell.

 

[Nocturnal]

This “rumor” of Tesla buying SpaceX is ridiculous. The last thing Elon wants is to have SpaceX scrutinized on a quarterly basis and short term decisions made. Much more likely is that he will use a portion of his 10% Tesla stock sale to invest more into SpaceX to get through the current Raptor crisis. Once Starships are lofting v2.0 Starlink sats into orbit and millions of dishes have been sold, then SpaceX spins out Starlink in 2-3 years in a big fat IPO. SpaceX itself remains private.

I can't see SpaceX itself being bought. Still a huge moonshot, but Starlink is the only possibility in my mind.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I don't think it's accurate. Teslas do not have any 12 volt fuses but they do have at least one Pyro fuse on the battery. I managed to blow mine in my 2013 model s. Techs were surprised and said I shouldn't have been able to do that.

I do like spirited driving. If only I could convince Tesla to let me be a tester for their new vehicles.

It is accurate. Modern Teslas do have a very advanced pyro, one time use big honking fuse on the 400V battery, but it isn't your usual "melt" type fuse - it is actively monitored by current sensing circuits and a microcontroller sends a signal to blow the fuse if it senses an odd current rush. This allows the "fuse" to be much more accurate, pretty much eliminates nuisance trips. To learn a lot more about this, see

 

[Jack6591]

My apologies if this has already been posted.

Biden's infrastructure law mandates technology in new vehicles to stop drunk drivers. How would it work?

The bipartisan law instructs the NHTSA to require automakers to include anti-drunken driving technology in new cars.

www.google.com

I’m wondering what sort of sensor could be used?

 

[ZachF]

Craig Irwin doesn't look well. I'm surprised CNBC doesn't have a policy against putting people on live TV that look like they are seriously ill.

Craig Irwin actually looked a lot healthier and happier when he had an "Outperform" rating on Tesla back in 2013 when he was with Wedbush:

Why I upgraded Tesla stock: Wedbush analyst

"These guys are going to keep executing, keep making expectations for the foreseeable future," says Craig Irwin of Wedbush Securities.

www.cnbc.com

Somewhere between then and now something went horribly wrong with him and he looks like he is in a living hell.

Lol

$150 is a P/E under 20 using last quarter’s profit annualized. Lower than the market as a whole (34)… for a company with essentially zero debt and a 50% CAGR.

People who put numbers like that should wear clown makeup when they do it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I’m neither here nor there on this rumor, but I just want to point out that wholly owned subsidiaries often get little to no scrutiny in earnings. Berkshire Hathaway owns dozens of companies and aside from general market trends those subsidiaries are largely immune to market scrutiny.

Unless SpaceX lost enough money or made enough money to materially affect Tesla’s earnings, it would be largely ignored by Wall Street.

The bigger issues are simply the legal issues around the acquisition itself. If it were to come onboard, it would disappear on Tesla’s financial statements.

If a true rumor that Tesla buys SpaceX, this could mean Tesla forecasts massive profits (yay), and then taxes (oh darn). Can SpaceX absorb Tesla winnings as a write-off? That might be a great reason to merge or buy, but I"m no tax person. And would there be advantage to do this BEFORE Tesla makes a boat-load of cash which could be potentially seen as tax avoidance? (Again, I don't know taxes).

 

[navguy12]

I came across this last night:

Selling my Tesla...

teslaownersonline.com

It is articulating the frustration that some current Tesla owners are living with.

I have heard these same type of stories (such as “noisy” HVAC issues in some new MY’s) in my neck of the woods for the past six months or so.

I know that no one starts threads that say, “all is great, etc…”.

But is this a longer term issue that will end up costing Tesla, the brand, more than the initial cost of delivering things right the first time?

Anecdotally, if one takes delivery of a new Tesla with “no issues”, one will go on to have a great experience with their car…but if one is unlucky in that they have issues at delivery, often times (it seems) the owner is pushing the metaphorical water uphill.

 

[JRP3]

But is this a longer term issue that will end up costing Tesla, the brand, more than the initial cost of delivering things right the first time?

Anecdotally, if one takes delivery of a new Tesla with “no issues”, one will go on to have a great experience with their car…but if one is unlucky in that they have issues at delivery, often times (it seems) the owner is pushing the metaphorical water uphill.

It's been an ongoing problem for years and has turned off too many people to the brand. Some people even sold all their stock in the company because they felt the long term damage was going to be significant.

 

[Gigapress]

It is accurate. Modern Teslas do have a very advanced pyro, one time use big honking fuse on the 400V battery, but it isn't your usual "melt" type fuse - it is actively monitored by current sensing circuits and a microcontroller sends a signal to blow the fuse if it senses an odd current rush. This allows the "fuse" to be much more accurate, pretty much eliminates nuisance trips. To learn a lot more about this, see

I think "circuit breaker" is a better word than "fuse" after having watched the video, because it's basically breaking open a switch by instantly snapping the metal in half.

My first internship was at a factory where we made big breakers for power grid substations, some of which were at similar voltages as the 400V Tesla battery. Dealing with arcing (the mini lightning bolts between the contacts when they're pulling apart from each other) was a major design constraint. This breaker is simpler in that is a one-time sacrificial safety component with no need for longevity after multiple breaks, but more difficult in that it has severe volume constraints and has to safely work in a car without exploding. That little module needs to sit still and reliably do nothing until it receives the trigger signal from the computer and then explode the piston down, snap the metal conductor, dissipate the arc and cool it down quickly and vent the hot gasses and do so with nearly perfect reliability. The video narrator made it sound like this will be tricky to copy. Fuses that just melt are a lot easier.