Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Enough with Joe Justice. He worked at Tesla for one freaking month.

 

[mongo]

Instant Poll.

True (Like) / False (Dislike)

EM has a choice to not sell everything this quarter?
If SP goes below 1000, he can stop selling for a few days?

No poll needed. His sales are voluntary/ optional and he had a low price limit of 1,000 seen previously. Friday's low was 1,022 or so.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Who is talking about 10% each year?

You go ahead and tell us what they have in mind then:

Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders propose 3% wealth tax on ...​

https://www.cnbc.com › 2021/03/01 › elizabeth-warren...

Mar. 1, 2021 — Bernie Sanders and other Democrats on Monday proposed a 2% annual tax on wealth over $50 million, rising to 3% for wealth over $1 billion.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You go ahead and tell us what they have in mind then:

Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders propose 3% wealth tax on ...​

https://www.cnbc.com › 2021/03/01 › elizabeth-warren...

Mar. 1, 2021 — Bernie Sanders and other Democrats on Monday proposed a 2% annual tax on wealth over $50 million, rising to 3% for wealth over $1 billion.

That's dead though. No chance of it happening now

 

[t153]

On Cybertruck towing and range, testing, bemchmarking, Michael Burry and valuation:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Burryology/comments/qsxwf7

That has to be the biggest load of BS. If these guys were "staying back" then how would they know that the tesla crew were buying gatorade, pork rinds, etc. This is just somebody trying to include a lot of details that in a normal case would have never been mentioned to make the story sound plausible; kind of like 10 year olds that are trying to lie

 

[2daMoon]

Is the market opening today or is the weekend extended?

Much astounded by the lack of SP talk this morn.

Wen 2daMoon?

 

[CHGolferJim]

Is the market opening today or is the weekend extended?

Much astounded by the lack of SP talk this morn.

Wen 2daMoon?

Interesting trend line pre-market (which as far as I can tell is totally uncorrelated to the day’s trading).

 

[replicant]

On Cybertruck towing and range, testing, bemchmarking, Michael Burry and valuation:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Burryology/comments/qsxwf7

What’s not a very big deal is unattributed ramblings on the internet.

Are you commenting the comments, or the OP itself?

Here's the post that was deleted since I shared the link:

Spoiler: careful, these must be considered rumour for now

Burry is WRONG on Tesla because of recent Cybertruck towing test in Texas Summer 2021!

Burry and his aficionados need to cool down this time on Tesla stock!

In summer 2021, two of my sources in the Big Three North American automotive engineering circles inadvertently participated in a Tesla Cybertruck road and towing test in the low-altitude and generally gentle rolling hills of the Texas highway system.

Ironically, they were in a Ford F150 Powerboost hybrid truck and had an aftermarket in-bed auxiliary fuel tank in the truck bed otherwise they would NOT have been able to complete the journey they did!

I will refrain from naming the specific starting and end points in Texas but they had pulled into a Mile-ZERO location outside of a local combined convenience store/gas station after they saw a series of Model-3 Tesla vehicles, a normal full size truck AND the Cybertruck itself that DOES NOT have the door handles. (i.e. the 2nd prototype truck!) and a trailer attached to the Cybertruck!

It looked like road legalization bumpers, accessories, mirrors and other lighting knick-knacks were put on the Cybertruck temporarily to allow it to legally traverse the Texas highway system. The Cybertruck was in a part of the lot where a flat bed trailer was attached with a large set of plastic water tanks of what were described as three 300 US Gallon water tanks which are 1135 litres each or a total of 3405 liters aka 3405 kg aka 7506 pounds of weight in total. Add the two male crew members estimated to be 175 lbs plus an estimated 3500 lbs weight of the trailer itself and the Tesla was LIKELY towing about 11,350 lbs total plus or minus!

There seemed to be test instrumentation installed in the OTHER full size truck and the Cybertruck crew had a laptop similar to a Panasonic Toughbook installed in the front seating console area! The engineering friend DID take a stroll near the Cybertruck after they got some items from the convenience store so they were able to physically see the laptop and various bits of test gear in the Cybertruck and the other full size truck.

They did not interact with the Tesla test crew in any way and parked away from the crew who seemed to be getting water, soft drinks, Powerade, chip and pork rind snacks and sandwiches. The Tesla test crew then got in their vehicles and started driving at a fairly steady 60 to 65 Miles per hour when they got on the less travelled multi-lane highways (i.e. at a continuous speed of around 100 kmh). The engineering friends began following them quite a distance away between half-a-mile to a full mile behind. This part of Texas is fairly flat with only rolling hills so they could easily see and follow the Tesla test crew from a distance at about the same 60 to 65 miles per hour highway speed.

The test crews of the Model 3's did peel off eventually after about 300 miles but another test crew in a normal gas powered full size truck did NOT stop and kept up with Cybertruck. My engineering friends had to switch over to their auxiliary gas tank as the Cybertruck did not stop until another area with a convenience store, gas station and washroom facilities was pulled into. Total trip computer mileage was 484 miles or 778 km!

My engineering friends gassed up and simply drove back to their starting location once they overheard on-the-sly within the convenience store along with the Tesla test crew that the Cybertruck was going to be towed back via a hired heavy duty truck.

Soooooo, it looks like the Cybertruck can TOW 11,350 lbs AT LEAST and do it for at least 484 miles!

I would say DO NOT SHORT TESLA YET! See what they OFFICIAL REAL WORLD tests are spouted off as BEFORE you make any investment decisions about Tesla and OTHER electric vehicle stocks! 484 MILES WHILE TOWING A HUGE LOAD IS A VERY VERY BIG DEAL !!!!!

V

 

[Artful Dodger]

That's dead though. No chance of it happening now

There's little chance of ANY legislation that Bernie proposes passing. Still, Elon has chosen this fight with him. Ask yourself what's the reason, and what's the endgame.

 

[thx1139]

I've been a Tesla customer in the US for over 7 years now and have always had excellent customer service.
The last service about 3 months ago was with Mobile Service and was also flawless. In fact we had some friends at the house that day and they were amazed that Tesla would come to our house to service the car. Such a painless and efficient process from an owner point of view.

Our 12V battery started failing last week and so nice to grab my phone and get service scheduled to come out this morning to replace it. Mobile Service will do right in my garage. I have never had service like this for any other vehicle.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

No poll needed. His sales are voluntary/ optional and he had a low price limit of 1,000 seen previously. Friday's low was 1,022 or so.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's been constant communication from the start between Elon's people and wall st banks/institutions about where the line in the sand is for how low he's sell orders will through at and thus, we're going to just stay in this low 1,000 level until his selling is done.

If we do drop into the 900's though I'm ready to swap more stock for LEAPS.

 

[mltv]

Bill Hagerty: Biden makes indefensible pay off to labor unions on electric vehicles | Opinion

Democrats will sacrifice American workers or climate goals to appease their political mega-supporters—the union bosses.

www.yahoo.com

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

You go ahead and tell us what they have in mind then:

Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders propose 3% wealth tax on ...​

https://www.cnbc.com › 2021/03/01 › elizabeth-warren...

Mar. 1, 2021 — Bernie Sanders and other Democrats on Monday proposed a 2% annual tax on wealth over $50 million, rising to 3% for wealth over $1 billion.

So why did you say 10% then?

 

[Lessmog]

While I'm not on Twitter I do watch a few accounts. Among them is
@28delayslater
Hope the GIF comes through:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1460235514653593605

Edit -- Apparently not. Do look, it is kind of amusing and almost on the current off-topic!

 

[Knightowl]

Well, I have officially put in my first buy order using margin if this tanks by another 100+/share lol crazy times.

 

[insaneoctane]

Has any one in history paid as much in taxes as Elon will in the coming years?

Seems unlikely since Elon is the richest man on the planet and just demonstrated he's not trying to hide behind an army of tax accountants/attorneys trying to minimize his taxes like the vast majority of mill/billionaires out there...

 

[jhm]

Benefits of opening up the supercharging network:

• Accelerate transition to sustainable energy
  • This is the point of Tesla existing
  • Also comes with political benefits
    • Tesla doesn't look like an evil monopoly, and garners support from the growing number of decarbonization activists
  • Also helps keep employees motivated and makes them continue to be dedicated beyond their short-term desire for money or prestige
    • Being truly mission-driven is, in my opinion, Tesla's single biggest fundamental competitive advantage that is a root cause of almost all the other competitive advantages

• Less chance of waiting in line, assuming that network scales in proportion with total number of users
  • This is counter-intuitive, but I have math to prove it.
    • Every station has a probability distribution of how many people are using it in a given time interval. I suspect that no one (except @jhm) wants to see the full math, but here's a summary.
      • Suppose Station 1 and Station 2 have peak demand in a 20 minute interval that approximately follows a Poisson probability distribution
      • Both stations are sized such that the average peak demand is 70% of the number of stalls
      • Station 1 has 10 stalls and 7 users on average at peak times
        • 9.9% likelihood of Station 1 having a wait time in a given 20 minute rush hour period
          • Excel formula: =1-POISSON.DIST(10,7,TRUE)
      • Station 2 has 30 stalls and 21 users on average
        • 2.4%likelihood of Station 2 having a wait time in a given 20 minute rush hour period
          • Excel formula: =1-POISSON.DIST(30,21,TRUE)
      • So, Station 2 is going to have 4x less chance of needing to wait in line in rush hour than Station 1 despite both stations having the same 70% average capacity factor!
      • In general, it can be shown that bigger stations with a proportionally bigger customer base always have less chance of hitting saturation, which is better for everyone
        • Or equivalently, a patch of several smaller stations in an small area experiences a similar effect
        • Alternatively, Tesla could design the network to maintain constant likelihood of waiting in line, but increase the average capacity factor, thus requiring fewer stalls per user for the same level of service. Or they could choose somewhere in the middle of these two extremes. Any way you look at it, scale makes the network better.

• Everyone who uses it must install the Tesla app, make an account, and use it every time they charge.
  • Tesla app cross-sells on other products: Cars, FSD, Solar, Powerwall, any future consumer products
  • The mere act of establishing a relationship with the Tesla brand majorly increases the likelihood of interest in a future purchase, because in a sense it lowers the mental "activation energy" for deciding to explore the Tesla website more. It's a similar mechanism and effect as clickbait has, but stronger.

• Everyone who uses it will see a lot of Tesla vehicles
  • Meeting Tesla owners, asking questions, seeing concrete social proof of the product from "normal" people who seem friendly and reasonable, rather than abstract easily-dismissable cult members.
  • Familiarity bias. Consumers prefer products that they have seen more frequently.

• Everyone who uses it sees the Tesla vehicles charging faster, starts to learn about the battery superiority, then starts to want a Tesla

• Greater number of users --> Greater number of stations --> Greater density of stations --> Lesser average distance between stations --> More convenience, more route options and more route planning simplicity for all network participants

• Greater number of users --> More economies of scale for manufacturing and software upgrades --> Lower average cost per stall

• ICE owners see EV chargers more often

Notes: As someone already mentioned, jerks who take up two stalls to lazily accommodate the fact that their vehicle has an inconvenient charger location can have their privileges removed, or they can simply be charged twice the money.

Thanks. I don't need to see the math. There are plenty of books on queueing theory out there. Yes, more stalls avoids extremely long wait times.

I'm very much in favor of opening up Superchargers to all EVs. Network scale has enormous advantages.

 

[Nocturnal]

Obviously Elon is gonna Elon but his tantrums harm the mission, and our wallets. Part of the roller coaster of owning TSLA though.

 

[JRP3]

whoever that person is.

If comments by the CEO are being deemed irrelevant to the company and the stock simply because someone doesn't like them it severely limits the usefulness of the forum.

 

[ammulder]

Obviously Elon is gonna Elon but his tantrums harm the mission, and our wallets. Part of the roller coaster of owning TSLA though.

Maybe Zach can take over Elon's Twitter account?