Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Wicket]

Fortune: Tesla stock just made the biggest 12-day gain in the history of capital markets

Tesla just made the biggest 12-day gain in the history of capital markets

TSLA gained $392 billion in 12 trading days.

fortune.com

The first 3 of those were 864->909 so rather brings down the average.

 

[22522]

I must confess. I have never been a TSLA bull (before now). My view was, "There is not better place to put my money, because I like what they are doing and they seem competent enough."

That has nothing directly to do with the price of the stock.

Since I asked one of the best CEOs I know if he thought TSLA was overvalued, showing him that the value was more than all the other car companies combined, and he said, "Yes" I have been exploring value.

1. It started with the sound system. "Why is the sound so good?"
2. Then Venn diagram snapshots of the situation as it stands today.
3. Then the question of, "How long will these Venn diagrams of multimodal demand persist?"

Then the question is, "Their estimate of persistence vs my estimate of persistence: How different are they?"

And then, "Can their estimate of Venn persistence change?" "Is there a logical argument as to why they can change their perception of Venn persistence their minds will accept - based on the things they already believe to be true?'

People seem to value IP. Telsa's drive for "the best" is an IP factory. Combine that with actual new factories, and the historical context of new steel mills for everyone the US bombed in WWII putting our steel mills at competitive disadvantage and I do not see how the market will not see a persistence Venn advantage for TSLA.

All that makes me a Bull with a price expectation of $1600 this year. Or to throw in some math from the 1145 close on November 1, that is a 40% gain in 2 months. (Not an advice. There is a lot of stuff I don't know.)

This is all based on the market recognizing that TSLA first mover advantages may be more persistent than originally estimated.

I don't believe in predicting the future, but I ask, "Why won't this happen?" And find no answer.

More a HODLer than a bull. Actually only a HODLer..

 

[madodel]

Is there an intelligent way to think about the timeframe of the fund rebalancing wave? I remember Gary Black emphasized importance of End of the Year performance in reward structure of fund managers.

If the end of they year performance is of primary influence then we could expect fund managers to taper down buying by early Dec, as there is little upside left in the stock held only for few weeks of Xmas period. Those who missed the boat this year could still hope for a dip early next year... and then miss it and panically start buying in Nov '22 .

Does anyone know to what degree active fund managers are influenced by monthly / quarterly performance metrics?

Window dressing for the prospectus that you were brilliant enough to get into an outstanding position during the year, even if that was December 31.

 

[madodel]

In your drone swarm, obviously: Technicals w. plasma miniguns are so 1980's... No, the real question is if your autonomous drones will need to land to recharge, or if laser power transfer is feasible for continuous operations?

He'll be back... Tesla will have this tech by the time we start mining operations on Mars. Bezos, be ware.

Cheers!

I’m still waiting for the missile launcher accessory for my falcon wing doors. Still not showing on my app. Anyone know when they will be in stock?

 

[ammulder]

Picture was in the Q3 slide deck: https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/deliver...78d/S1dbei4/WEB/TSLA-Q3-2021-Quarterly-Update

View attachment 729302

Nah, there’s just a giant mirror wall there in the middle….

 

[Cal1]

Window dressing for the prospectus that you were brilliant enough to get into an outstanding position during the year, even if that was December 31.

Wonder how late they can wait to add more Telsa shares. They've probably missed the biggest price advance but would also want to be holding for next years advances. They could wait until next year to establish a position but that would be too late to help any 2021 performance. I had been telling the wife that we could see $1200 by Dec and ... well look at it now.

$1300+ this year just seems out of the question.

 

[Nocturnal]

OT... Not sure why we're talking a lot about CyberTruck construction today... camping fever hit or did I miss something in the news?

It was my fault. I was musing that Tesla should expand in areas that make sense for supporting the service of a stainless vehicle.

 

[LightngMcQueen]

Window dressing for the prospectus that you were brilliant enough to get into an outstanding position during the year, even if that was December 31.

True - prospectus would not attribute fund under-performance to any specific stock while still reporting holdings and their weights as of end of the reporting period. Subjectively fund manager's underperformance with TSLA at full weight in the portfolio looks less damming than similar underperformance while underweight on TSLA. But who is really looking at this level of detail? I am asking because I really do not know

... "prospectus Xmas dressing" does not directly affect managers renumeration and has only slight impact on sales/AUM in 2022, thus I do not think it would be driver for significant demand throughout Dec, especially if SP keeps on rising making rebalancing more costly.

 

[Discoducky]

Wonder how late they can wait to add more Telsa shares. They've probably missed the biggest price advance but would also want to be holding for next years advances. They could wait until next year to establish a position but that would be too late to help any 2021 performance. I had been telling the wife that we could see $1200 by Dec and ... well look at it now.

$1300+ this year just seems out of the question.

Let's see how your post ages...

I feel like we will see much more of a rise when production figures come out soon as well as December.

 

[jerry33]

Forward Observing

Having dabbled in sales, and working/teaching computer science since the late seventies ~ speaking from hands on experience ~ the added warranties sales folks try to con you into are pure gravey. My personal stance is that if it is going to break within the primary warranty it will, if the sales person believes you need extended warrant, then the product is worthless. If you know the product is solid, then be strong enough to not give away your hard earned cash.

For an expensive product that you intend to keep for a long time the extended warranties provide peace of mind. If you have enough that it doesn't matter, or if you have a fleet (say more than three), you're better off without the extended warranty. So extended warranties on cheap consumer products are worthless, like you say. So are warranties on expensive products if you are in the correct income bracket. If you are not in the correct income bracket, what you don't want to be hit with is a several thousand dollar dental bill and a several thousand dollar car repair bill at the same time.

 

[Lessmog]

Before that, if it broke, I fixed it or bought another inexpensive used car. After over 50 years of being an American consumer I can say I've collected less on warranties than I've spent on flowers. And I don't buy flowers very often.

So, petal to the metal eh?

 

[SOULPEDL]

It was my fault. I was musing that Tesla should expand in areas that make sense for supporting the service of a stainless vehicle.

Oh thanks, I did miss that part.

I try not to think about Cybertruck so I don't get bummed out waiting for it, or having nightmares about getting a Rivian. Not that it wouldn't be cool to test drive, but there's just no trust there yet. I could see them being another Mercruiser story over batteries or software issues unresolved. (I think I went a bit OT on that story as well.)

 

[GrandEnigma]

Cute, the market is drawing the Tesla logo again today for the daily chart.

Also, got me some of those $1234.56 commemorative shares

 

[SOULPEDL]

...but I did learn you can weld SS just like any other!

 

[jbcarioca]

As a retired teacher of 29 years I would say you are wrong. A whole lot of very gifted people out there educating the next generation of geniuses.

Those who can, do
But without gifted teachers, their talent is often wasted.

Dan

Yes, my post was slightly tongue-in-cheek. I taught at tow universities and thought of it as a privilege and a duty.
Sorry if I was too lacking in context.

 

[jbcarioca]

Forward Observing

Having dabbled in sales, and working/teaching computer science since the late seventies ~ speaking from hands on experience ~ the added warranties sales folks try to con you into are pure gravey. My personal stance is that if it is going to break within the primary warranty it will, if the sales person believes you need extended warrant, then the product is worthless. If you know the product is solid, then be strong enough to not give away your hard earned cash.

As for those that cannot do = teach. Well, anyone that says that failed to learn.

Extended warranties sold with major OEM names usually allow dealer markup of 150-200%. They are not permitted to be considered an insurance product in most US jurisdictions. That fits right in with undercoating, and almost anything else sold by an auto dealer, other than new vehicles.

 

[Accident]

U.S. judge rejects Blue Origin challenge to NASA's pick of SpaceX moon lander

A federal judge on Thursday rejected a lawsuit by Jeff Bezos' space company Blue Origin against the U.S. government over NASA's decision to award a $2.9 billion lunar lander contract to rival billionaire Elon Musk's SpaceX.

www.reuters.com

What now, Bezos?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Gonna blow the top off at 3pm again? Sure seems like it.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

U.S. judge rejects Blue Origin challenge to NASA's pick of SpaceX moon lander

A federal judge on Thursday rejected a lawsuit by Jeff Bezos' space company Blue Origin against the U.S. government over NASA's decision to award a $2.9 billion lunar lander contract to rival billionaire Elon Musk's SpaceX.

www.reuters.com

What now, Bezos?

We all know the answer to that...COUNTERSUE!!!

 

[MXWing]

I have short calls! HELP!

Can I call in favors to Vlad at HOOD, Peterffy at IKBR to restrict buys?!?

Sell TSLA orders only, no buy orders!

/s