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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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So the question becomes how to fight it effectively. I believe Gene was on the right track, but either he has a company and personal image he’s loathe to break or he wanted to out clever Gordon, and simply lost a lot of the clear punching power.

Ignore the the bit of the truth and just address/attack/refute the individual lies.

Gordon, Tesla does use video from their vehicles. Example; the talk they did about taking bits of video data from multiple vehicles that have traveled the same intersection and overlaying those images to create a rich environment.

Simply just listing all the ways in which Tesla used video data blows up the script Gordon has created.

I remember seeing someone do that a while back - maybe Rob M. - and Gordon got really flustered because it destroyed the false narrative he’d built around a single nugget of truth. The problem was that Rob? didn’t take it far enough, didn’t put the nail in the coffin per say.

If nobody takes this guy apart in a simple, logical, systematic way, he’ll just keep on doing what he’s doing and get away with it.
Agree 100%. Chamath P. or Steven Mark Ryan would at least have a sufficient understanding of the facts, as well as a large enough huevos, to torch this luddite.
 
The most effective way this could happen is by one of Tesla's lawyers taking him apart on the stand in a defamation trial. Gordon doesn't have much of a truth defence when he outright said that Tesla doesn't use real world data and that they've been lying saying they do. But I don't see Tesla going this far, maybe Tesla China would if it happened there as they seem to be more assertive of late.

Actually, I've started to keep tabs on Gordon's tweets (screenshots and capturing video of his interviews) as well as starting to try to track how many times CNBC has had Gordon on their shows compared to other analysts.......I'm actually hoping they continue to show favoritism to him over anyone else covering Tesla and that he continues saying blatant lies.....it makes it easy to claim slander.

If Tesla does rocket to the moon in the 1-2 years and I have that extra FUD money, I know a couple lawyers and will be starting a lawsuit against Gordon and CNBC for slander and defamation with intent for market manipulation. The more he outright lies on these interviews and CNBC continues to have him on with no disclaimers, the more it legitimates the lawsuit. Hopefully, could turn it into a class action lawsuit if enough investors join on. Obviously, the odds of the case winning would be debatable and CNBC would not doubt try to drain my FU funds set aside for this......but I just want to see them squirm at this point
 
oh, I thought you meant your TSLA shares. I was already impressed that you had so many shares that you needed 10-20 robots for that.

What I want to do when I have a Tesla with working FSD is to travel at night while sleeping in the car. Each supercharger station would have a Tesla bot that would plug in the charging cable and pull it out once done. Simple task, cheaper than automating each of the stalls. I would wake up at my destination fresh, and can enjoy the holiday.
I agree with the vision. Tesla will provide the "Sleeper Car train" experience as soon as FSD is there. And with over 400 miles of range, 500 in the cyber(nota) truck, traveling less than that distance gives you the experience without a single interruption. But at THE Most you'd have to wake up is One Time during a 10 hour drive. And as we are predominately a group of older men we already do that.
The real advantage of FSD will be the dramatic decrease in loss of quality time and expense when vacationing in a cyber(nota)truck. ANY day event within 500 miles of your home will only cost you ONE day of your time and only the electricity to get you there and back.
Say, you want to go your college's Homecoming Football game 400 miles away and see some old friends. Have a normal Friday happy hour and dinner with friends, come home, shower, load the C(nota)T at around midnight, climb in and go to sleep. Wake up to have breakfast and recharge the battery, and you might as well stock the ice chest if you didn't load up the frunk for a tailgate last night. Hop back in and either rest your eyes or become a person on the tour bus seeing how the campus is changing.
Do the game, Hang out till midnight, Hop back in, go to sleep, wake up at home (or very close). Shower, and go to work.
No days wasted traveling because you can sleep there and back. Even on arriving back at your house you are well rested and capable of going to work.
As to money
The only expenses are tickets, drinks(cooler?), food, and electricity.
NO
plane ticket
car rental
Hotel (three day required for home games and they jack up the prices)

FSD will create a measurable shift in the vacation/leisure paradigm
 
Later this year, Google TPU v4 will be available for rental in their datacenters. It will be incredibly expensive, as is Google TPU v3. Tesla is better off building their own silicon to precisely match their model training needs, with enough generalization capability that they can rent time on their virtually-sized D1 clusters later on to make big $$$ just like $GOOGL does.

Check the Venture Beat article on Google TPU v4. Specs are vague, but TPU v3 is fully released with specs. Tesla's version 1.0 effort with their D1 chip is very impressive for their 1st gen IMHO.

PS. Google does not "sell" any of their Tensor Processing Units for obvious reasons, and $TSLA will not sell their D1 or future D#'s, either. When Elon had to pause before answering that "will you open source any of your code" question (so we can steal your IP), as an investor I almost lost my dinner! Finally, Elon gave the correct answer: NFW!!
Yes, Elon is often altruistic and when that open source question came up, as an investor, I got seriously spooked...waiting for the reply.... Squeamish... . I was thrilled to hear the reasonable answer that it was expensive and had to be paid for somehow. Thank God.
 
I’ve wondered the same thing for awhile, low IQ or liar? So I listened carefully to how he talked, what he said. I watched his face and body language.

He’s a liar and his level of intelligence is just enough to make him dangerous. I don’t mean dangerous as in a threat to Tesla, I mean dangerous to himself.

The final liar determination for me was how he answered Gene’s last question. The answer to that question is yes or no. Mr. Gordon answered, though, like a scripted politician. And that’s what I believe is going on - Mr. Gordon picks a specific point if ‘partial truth’ and then manipulates it by building an elaborate script around it that contains both that piece of. truth and a bunch of lies.

It is true Tesla is using simulations, but it’s not true that that’s all they’re using, or that that’s all they’ve ever used or all the rest of the crap he’s spewing. But he leaves in that nugget of truth, which is actually super smart (and plain evil) because it makes opposition admit the truth - BUT - and it’s the ‘but’ part where people start to get suspicious or turn off. I love you, BUT (now comes something I’m not going to like).

Tesla does use simulations, BUT (here comes the huge qualifier etc… so I’m not listening any further).
Why isn't GLJ's segment legal slander?
 
Perhaps Tesla will make their bots available early to third party developers so that these developers can create new capabilities, for which I’ll pencil in the term "caps" (anything but ‘apps’ please Elon).

I’m thinking the developers would use the dev bots along with simulations and other sources to create data sets applicable to solving a particular problem—picking grapes, weeding, ironing, operating a fry cooking station, …—then they would use the Dojo service to accelerate the training of their new capability.

Tesla could vet and distribute the caps and take a cut a la Apple‘s App Store.

New gold rush right there.
You could think of it as putting your robot through school, technical colleges or even universities to get advanced degrees, and they wouldn't need to be limited to physical tasks like cooking. Your robot could get advanced degrees in various subjects so they could talk intelligently about a wide variety of subjects.

When a guest comes over you could introduce your robot by name and say "Jeeves was originally trained in hospitality and advanced French cooking but has since broadened his horizons with expertise in astrophysics. With his undergraduate degrees in psychology, philosophy and renewable energy he is particularly adept at lobbying at City Hall. Last month he convinced the City Council to attach a prohibition to the City purchase of new ICE vehicles unless it could be shown there was not a cost-effective BEV alternative. Would you like a drink and an appetizer?
 
So Tesla's new mission statement should be "improving the probability that the future is good".

As they start developing new products in the future that are off-track, a new statement like that might work better.
Recall in the past Elon has conveyed his concern of hostile AI and robots (remember the “Cheetah” bot you could only see with a strobe light?). Dojo and Optimus Subprime seem to be his alternatives.
 
I agree with the vision. Tesla will provide the "Sleeper Car train" experience as soon as FSD is there. And with over 400 miles of range, 500 in the cyber(nota) truck, traveling less than that distance gives you the experience without a single interruption. But at THE Most you'd have to wake up is One Time during a 10 hour drive.
Wouldn't that be an above average wakefulness time?
 
Yeah armchair internet/twitter experts on both sides (so this guy, green, whole mars, etc...) are something I find hilarious to read and also flabbergasted that some actually listen to them.

I'll put it very bluntly......if they were even half of experts as they claim to be...they'd be working at Tesla already. For the past 5+ years straight, Tesla and Space X have ranked #1 and #2 in more desired employment across the engineering and tech space.

You have a select few that know "enough" about the field and don't particularly like Tesla's approach that try and establish themselves as experts in an effort to discredit Tesla's approach. If you're just glancing through their twitter feeds they might fool you. But if you actually following their conversations, actual industry experts that are more knowledgeable than them chime in. That's when it becomes obvious that these people don't actually fully know what they're talking about.

These are the same "types" of people that considered themselves "experts" in auto manufacturing back when Tesla was first starting out. Just a few years later, we're getting things like the GigaPress amongst other Tesla auto manufacturing breakthroughs that completely disrupt the traditional manufacturing "ways".........and lo and behold Tesla is posting margins that also disrupt the traditional auto assumptions. Coincidence?

This guy is on TMC. @Bladerskb

I respect the knowledge he has about all of the self driving efforts out there. He knows the details about everyone's programs, what sensors they are using, what parts of their models are hand coded vs neural net, etc... If someone gave a test on self driving car knowledge, he'd ace it.

He also knows absolutely nothing about how machine learning and deep learning work, because he's never done it. You can read about topics, but you don't become great at them until you actually do them for a while. So when he makes comments about criticizing Tesla's techniques, it's without knowledge on what actually matters.

Case in point, he mocks that Tesla is using neural net architectures that aren't new. Which is correct. Except, what really matters is having the massive amount of data to make those networks useful! He will downplay this, because he doesn't really know about that.

Or he will harp on how Waymo's amazing simulations will make them thr most successful. Where in reality with machine learning, you need a "good enough" simulation combined with absolutely all the edge case data you can get. Which Waymo absolutely does not have. But he doesn't understand that because he doesn't actually do deep learning.

My critiques are now why he has added a title of "deep learning researcher" lol no.

Waymo and Cruise assuredly should love him because he'll rehash their garbage marketing material because he doesn't know any better.
 
This guy is on TMC. @Bladerskb

I respect the knowledge he has about all of the self driving efforts out there. He knows the details about everyone's programs, what sensors they are using, what parts of their models are hand coded vs neural net, etc... If someone gave a test on self driving car knowledge, he'd ace it.

He also knows absolutely nothing about how machine learning and deep learning work, because he's never done it. You can read about topics, but you don't become great at them until you actually do them for a while. So when he makes comments about criticizing Tesla's techniques, it's without knowledge on what actually matters.

Case in point, he mocks that Tesla is using neural net architectures that aren't new. Which is correct. Except, what really matters is having the massive amount of data to make those networks useful! He will downplay this, because he doesn't really know about that.

Or he will harp on how Waymo's amazing simulations will make them thr most successful. Where in reality with machine learning, you need a "good enough" simulation combined with absolutely all the edge case data you can get. Which Waymo absolutely does not have. But he doesn't understand that because he doesn't actually do deep learning.

My critiques are now why he has added a title of "deep learning researcher" lol no.

Waymo and Cruise assuredly should love him because he'll rehash their garbage marketing material because he doesn't know any better.
That's my problem with all of those types. Tesla can hire any talent they want. They can acquire almost any company they want. And as importantly they have a culture of taking risks and trying new things straight from the top down. This hardly guarantees success, but it gives them as good or better odds than any other company on Earth.
 
Pretty sure Elon isn't vaccinated, and guessing from first principles thinking he has figured getting Covid is akin to being vaccinated (actually he can get his antibodies levels measured/ confirmed for strength), but mostly if his immune system was strong enough (with the right assists) last time, it'll be good enough too for the next variants.

So, hard to tell what this sarcasm is directed at in classic best Elon style. Could the non-vaccinated FUD be similar to the Tesla FUD? After all, same suppression of differing opinions, and policization politicization of science. Note also he's usually wearing a casual looking bandanna scarf in lieu of the standard Covid mask.

The Covid scare was also used to try and shut down Fremont back in May '20 (when there weren't any vaccines available BTW), Elon defied the local sheriff/ whatever local paid folks, and asked to be the only one arrested for breaking the law if they were going to try and enforce that law he successfully resisted, remember? Where would Tesla be today without that forceful challenge, brrrrr

Tesla was also the only company I know of to have done an internal survey of employees (can't bother to dig the details), with the conclusion that COVID was a negligible risk for the employees, tho of course the mean age is around 39 or something like that. That was also before vaccines were widely available.

Bottom line, possibility of Elon not being able to continue leading Tesla/ SpaceX et al due to Covid is 0.000(ad infinitum) considering all treatments and preventive modes available. Possibility of diminished capabilities from a current mRNA vaccine not zero, would be zero with a real vaccine like the upcoming Novavax vaccine.

Elon's post could also be interpreted simply as a free advertising one .. this being the attention economy era for better or worse - the more exposure/ noise about Tesla the better

[OT] Please do not respond on this topic here, there is a Coronavirus thread for this. In fact maybe all posts about this should go there or elsewhere.
I don’t believe he’s not vaccinated. His travels fo Italy and Germany would have required this of him if he didn’t want to quarantine for at least 5 days…
 
More on robot viability. Wires are a pain. And expensive. And unreliable.

Let's compare the reliability of a fully thermocouples piece of power electronics with 100 paired wires called themocuoples. It is a rats nest, even iff well dressed.

To a thermal image of the piece of power electronics. Much simpler.

To a fielded piece of equipment that is periodically thermal imaged (or continuously).

Video is great for field data acquisition - lot of points.

If beam torque wrenches were a part of every slightly flexible bone, and they could be observed with an inside camera, almost all the wires go away and you are already formatted for AI processing.

Internally visible for position and some ratio method (like pinky is always weaker) and just a few strain locations that the camera could see...

Or just back it all out from the motor data... Or the motor data and the tendon stretch. Motor data is sort of open loop and would require periodic calibration.

I am not convinced you need anything more than motor torque and positional information that a camera could get.

In other words, Tesla's new set of tools could vastly simplify what is needed inside the robot.
 
Remember Honda's Asimo walking/talking humanoid robot unveiled in 2000. It had good intentions and alot of practical applications, however was discontinued in 2018.

Just as Tesla advanced the auto, transportation and energy sectors, Tesla will advance the humanoid. The others will simply ask "what happened?"
 
Forward Observing

Technology ~ kind of like the movie Mrs Robinson; “the future is plastics.” Without the sex.

As a teen, I visited Disneyland and observed a “look a like” of Abraham Lincoln. He sat there and spoke, and waved his arms in jerky motions. If they still have the display today, I wonder what computer version, some sixty years later. A key point, how did the builder of the rudimentary robot and programmer know what Lincoln’s gestures and characteristics were, let alone his voice? Do they still have the display. FYI ~ it cost $20 for the day and book of tickets:)

Observation ~ while very diverse group of male engineers, no female leads; AI Day presentation. Further, and not recommending, I know a PHD female that used to work for a competitor start-up. She quit about two years ago, claiming the other company would fold within six months. Two years later, the company still exists, but still has yet to produce cars on the road/for sale. Point/bottom line there are female engineers out there.

As some are aware, I commanded the first multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) in Europe back in 1983. No I am not a hero or seeking glory ~ too old and Tesla well off to care. My bottom line or point is that the FUD associated on that microscopic event is exactly what is happening to Tesla/Elon. My battery of nine launchers carried the same firepower of three battalions of 8” cannons. The job displacement was something like 160 men vs 4K. Now, let’s move forward in time. What if, a three person crew could be replaced with one Teslabot? No humans. The driver could be a second pair of eyes/cameras. Upgrade the GPS, we had it before most here were born or knew about at the time. New GPSs should eliminate any need of survey crews. FYI ~ military has computer programs to calculate cost savings ~ you should have seen the poo hit the fan when I calculated the cost of eliminating a general position in Europe:) Sorry, but I will laugh about that the rest of my life:) FYI ~ this MLRS battery was my proverbial sucking chest wound and I will never recover:-(

While Elon mentioned something like universal income, he gave no details of what that would look like.

I am, and always have been excited about what the future holds. I remember one day at our ranch in Cucamonga (CA), a day when we could see the moon; my mother said, “some day we will land on the moon.” I think I was four then. I was later in the ”day room” preparing to go to Vietnam while the first landing aired on TV. Did not go to Vietnam, even though I volunteered. Did not know of a doctor to ask for an excuse not to go:) I was not of that character anyway.

Most of what I learn is through the hard knocks of life. Kind of like the rock that caught me on the back of the head as a child playing war. Or, about the same time I required more stitches because I tried firing my air rifle with the pumping lever in extended position ~ flew back and caught my thumb.

Speaking of displaced workers. While growing up, there was a great deal of hatred by loggers due to the “Spotted owl.” Yesterday, as I walked up hill to water our trees, I could hear the machine munching through a forest soon to be gone. Logging today no longer requires humans ~ except the driver. While training in Germany, I loved their logging practice of selectively cutting trees and using horses to haul the trees out of the forest.

Those of you still here as dedicated longs, might remember Lutz of GMC, spewing Tesla will fail. Me? Well, do not hear much out of him at this point in time. However, Ford CEO seems be taking over for him.

Perspective ~ humans have been on Earth for hunreds of thousands of years, not a simple three or four thousand years. I count the number of Tesla’s I see on the road each time my wife allows me out of the dungeon. Or, how excited I get seeing a truck load of Tesla’s heading for Seattle or that country to the north. That, that is where the “Rubber Meets the road“ ~ everything else is FUD:)

Current FUD, old FUD is simply FUD. Try watching or looking for the growth of Tesla’s in the wild, or getting excited about a truck load flying past you to soon be released. Keep being excited each time the quarterly deliveries are announced. Know that when I observe the Toyota lot of new vehicles is half its old size, something is happening. Oh yeah, they are cutting sales forecast. Chip is the culprit according to Toyota. But, what is the tipping point when fossil fuel truely gives way to electric cars? What does that landscape look like? Will you know it when you see it? Think about the chip Toyota, Ford, GMC needs for fossil fuel cars vs the chip Tesla needs. Hell, he (Elon) just showed you! Critical thinking ~ clear your mind and breath. I know, I should practice what I preach:)

Funny ~ China recently demanded that all the data derived by Tesla’s driving in China ~ stays in China. Elon just said, “fine, keep it, we do not need it to create the program for self driving.” Did I get that right?

FYI ~ it does not matter what I say, if humans are around in another four hundred thousand years, no one will know I even existed. Just a realest ~ fine by me. My silly millimeter of space and time is fine by me:). Tesla will rise and fall again; and continue to grow. Old saying, “lead or get out of the way.” Go Elon/Tesla!

Thank you for your time:)