Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2021/01/08/tesla-brakes/

Not surprisingly, NHTSA found no evidence of vehicle defect as cause of unintended accelerations.

From the article:
Brian Sparks, the investor who filed the petition, said the rates of complaints about sudden acceleration incidents in Teslas were “astonishingly high” compared with other kinds of vehicles but that he accepted the findings of the federal review.
“If NHTSA says there is no defect then I consider the matter settled,” Sparks said. “I appreciate NHTSA’s work.”

And just to refresh everyone's memories, Brian Sparks was not a TSLA investor as that article would have you believe, he was a known Tesla short-seller. His agreeability to the findings and compliments of NHTSA are likely due to him having been made aware that he could become the defendant in a lawsuit charging that he filed the petition in bad faith.

And how would he fund his defense considering that his TSLA short position was probably underwater already when he filed the petition last year in a move that likely could be described as desperation. I wonder how long he waited for the petition to have some negative effect on TSLA shares before deciding or being forced to cover his short position?

These TSLAQ types are a huge drain on the system, from the SEC, the NHTSA, the court system and even Tesla when they have to respond to such idiocy. These people should be vigorously prosecuted.

 

[Singuy]

Rather than make another post with more errors and negative speculation.
Why not just do a few seconds of googling? By googling 'Nvidia Orin', this image popped up.
4x Orin = 260W, just about 2.5 more watts usage than FSD for 7x the power increase.

Oh wow, so Nvidia finally beat Tesla's FSD in terms of performance/watt by 2022 on 7nm(or possible 5nm) manufacturing process while Tesla's is using 14nm? Damn..didn't think Tesla was that far ahead. When it comes to low power scalability, Nvidia is at 2.5tops/watt looking at the Orin 4 while Tesla is at 2tops/watt. If Tesla were to switch to 7nm, they can most likely hit 4tops/watt without trying.

What do you mean by 2.5 more watts usage than FSD for 7x the power increase? Tesla is sipping only 72watts@144 TOPs

Also you got to give it to Nvidia marketing. 320TOPs is being advertised as L5 but not by 2022..I guess they had insurrection/marshall law/nuclear apocalypses in mind.

 

[bkp_duke]

It's not JUST the silicon.

It's the code that runs on it, and no one is competing with Tesla and their BILLIONS of actual miles of data that have been used to optimize their algos.


NVIDIA just looks like a giant GPU. Big F-ing whoop.

 

[Fobble]

Not sure if someone still owns the trademark "Model Q" but here's a 1928 Plymouth Model Q:

And this:

 

[kcveins]

I guess I should at least look into this, I'll need to call Schwab on Monday. I'll probably just pay a tranche of estimated taxes for now so taxman won't behead me while I try to figure out how this works. Thank you for your suggestion.

I did this with Schwab last week - you can apply for it on line, just search for the pledged asset line (PAL).. pretty self explanatory

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Not it’s 1,016 TOPS (int8), FSD is 144 TOPS (int8).

144 * 7 = 1008... hence they say 7x more powerful.

Come on Tesla fans, get it together!

NIO is using 4x NVIDIA Orin processors to get that 7x performance. If you use the estimate of 70w per core from here NVIDIA Details DRIVE AGX Orin: A Herculean Arm Automotive SoC For 2022 that’s 280+ watts. On a car that gets 250wh/mile going 60 mph, thats a 1-2% efficiency hit for the extra processing power. At city speeds its more like 5%

At autonomy day Elon mentions the importance of keeping FSD low power,especially for city driving. Elon could have opted for a more powerful computer, but didnt because of the power tradeoff. Expect when FSD computer 4.0 comes out with 7 or 5nm lithography, power consumption will be even lower.

1:42:20

 

[Highway2Heel]

Haven’t been to the local Tesla dealership in a while...just no need...but we wanted to add a Y to our X so we went in today to give the Y a look-see and...holy smokes...joint was hopping.

Demand in the southeastern US is through the roof...which (as usual) reminded me of a song...

 

[pz1975]

The hype TSLA stock is getting in the mainstream news and among random people on the street is pretty significant. I’ve seen a lot noir news reports about TSLA and Elon being the world’s richest man lately and had many people who don’t know anything about Tesla and who don’t know what a Teslaholic I am mention TSLA to me in the last few weeks.

Usually that would be a bad sign - the classic sell the stock when the taxi driver tells you about it - but I think it’s the reverse now for the company itself. The company is getting so much free advertising due to its stock rise that many more people will consider and eventually buy Tesla cars that may not have before. The stock rise is adding massive credibility to the product and along with the increasing awareness of climate change and the shift to climate protection in politics, I think demand is going to hit a tipping point and I expect waiting times for cars to start increasing despite the ever-increasing production volumes worldwide. Just need to keep those gigafactories pumping out!

 

[FastCompany]

If anything like the PALs in Canada, not permitted to own options within the pledged account, and some banks don’t allow sale of CCs against holdings in the pledged account either.

Although one interesting feature of PALs at some of our banks is that they will loan you 70% of value of account (excl. option positions), and up to 200% value of account if you recontribute the loaned amount to the pledged accounts. A different form of leverage and typically much lower rates than margin rates.

Can you provide an example of a Canadian bank that offers such a PAL. I'm with TD.

 

[Phobi]

Can you provide an example of a Canadian bank that offers such a PAL. I'm with TD.

You’re pretty close Was looking it up as well: Investment Secured Line of Credit | TD Canada Trust

Edit: sorry nvm, just noticed the terms you were looking at

 

[st_lopes]

Can you provide an example of a Canadian bank that offers such a PAL. I'm with TD.

All the major banks would, but you may need to work through their Private Banking / Wealth teams. I’ve received details from both RBC and Scotia, similar offerings, but Scotia afforded the most flexibility (eg can pledge a TFSA, whereas RBC wouldn’t).

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Someone convinced you to take profits, was wrong and it ended up being a giant mistake.
Same person admitted being wrong but then concluded profit taking is never bad.

Another friend called you crazy and said TSLA could go to zero.
Same friend said your TSLA stock could disappear in one day.

Maybe you should stop talking to people about TSLA. Seems to be an exercise in frustration that sometimes leads you to make bad decisions. The statements "profit taking is never bad" and "TSLA could go to zero" are ignorant beyond description. Those two are unsalvageable. Don't waste your time.

Wow, I just had those same comments made to me today by two different people. Note to self, spend more time on TMC than in the real world.

 

[AudubonB]

Wow, I just had those same comments made to me today by two different people. Note to self, spend more time on TMC than in the real world.

I don't think one of those four-letter words means what you think it means.

 

[Evoforce]

Don't know how many stocks you intend to sell, but won't you kick yourself if they're worth twice as much by this time next year. Why not open up a line of credit at your broker secured by your portfolio and at a very low interest rate (=>3%)? That way you keep your stock and pay your withdrawal when you feel like it. That's what this board has convinced me to do and I don't regret in the slightest. Worth setting up the LOC even if you don't use it right away, because then it gives you another easy option to look at when cash is needed immediately.

Did you go rate shopping, and if yes, who was the best? I attempted to take a collateral loan against shares and I thought it was going to be funded but they came back and said "no" because I was not diversified. Previously, they said they would, but only 30% of the value if not diversified.

 

[StealthP3D]

FWIW if this is your first year with this issue you might not need to pay estimated taxes if you've got a "regular" job and withholding-- as long as that is at least 90% of what you owed last year (assuming decent income) there's no underpayment penalty for not doing quarterly payments for 2020 even if you have a ton more income.

Good advice and worth looking into to see if it can be applied to your situation.

You could potentially sell some OTM options you think will expire worthless to raise cash. If you're in the situation I describe above you'd be able to sell pretty far OTM weeklies for the next 3 months for example to raise some $. Always a risk of exercise, but if you were considering selling shares anyway that'd get you a premium for em plus a higher than now price.

Bad advice. The whole point of not wanting to sell shares to pay taxes is the possibility that big gains might be left on the table. So, if the price starts rising quickly towards the strike price, your liability increases - your account value goes down. You could cover for a loss but that's not why you entered into this trade. But if you continue to hold your shares might get called away. While that would cover your tax bill, you are not sure they will get called away so you are left hanging, with a depressed account value and no certainty as to how this will play out. Every time you take a corrective action the stock price could move against your action. No one knows with any certainty which way the share price will move.

In short, this trade is not advised because of the way it can greatly increase the uncertainty of where the funds to pay your taxes will come from. And it does this for what is generally a relatively small amount of potential profit relative to what's potentially at stake. The only reason this trade looks enticing to some people is they have poor judgement. I can't believe people are still recommending selling of covered calls to raise cash! Even if it works 9 out of 10 times it's not worth that one time it doesn't work. And the higher you set the strike, the smaller the premium.

 

[willow_hiller]

The hype TSLA stock is getting in the mainstream news and among random people on the street is pretty significant. I’ve seen a lot noir news reports about TSLA and Elon being the world’s richest man lately and had many people who don’t know anything about Tesla and who don’t know what a Teslaholic I am mention TSLA to me in the last few weeks.

Usually that would be a bad sign - the classic sell the stock when the taxi driver tells you about it - but I think it’s the reverse now for the company itself. The company is getting so much free advertising due to its stock rise that many more people will consider and eventually buy Tesla cars that may not have before. The stock rise is adding massive credibility to the product and along with the increasing awareness of climate change and the shift to climate protection in politics, I think demand is going to hit a tipping point and I expect waiting times for cars to start increasing despite the ever-increasing production volumes worldwide. Just need to keep those gigafactories pumping out!

If you think the average person understands TSLA, check out the comments in this non-EV subreddit on a thread about Tesla's market cap: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeau...c_tesla_is_now_bigger_in_market_cap_than_the/

That just shows how stupid investors are. Tesla made 331 million in q3/220.

At this rate it would take them more than 500 years to pay the stock price in dividends if they used 100% for dividends.

But no one cares about facts, everyone buys the stocks because everyone thinks that everyone else will buy the stocks. And it works. Until it doesn't. (Over 2500 upvotes and gold award)

Yeah, pretty much this. Ford sells 5.5 million vehicles and brings in 155 billion a year. Even if they aren't growing a lot, they should still be worth more than Tesla who sells 500k cars and brings in 25 billion a year.

People like to assume that Tesla will continue to expand forever even though they don't really have the product line to be anything more than niche brand. (Over 1000 upvotes)

Tesla is valued by the stock market more than the next 10 biggest automakers put together.

There's a difference, and it's an important one. Toyota alone brings in ten times the revenue that Tesla does, and they manufacture twenty five times as many cars.

It's ****ing asinine to believe that they will ever actually be as valuable as all those other companies combined, and even if they could do it we shouldn't let them on account of monopolies are bad. The fact that stonks bros consistently don't understand any of this is the entire problem with the stock market. (Over 1000 upvotes)

 

[scaesare]

The power pack is just there to arbitrage for Tesla to make more margins on supercharging.

I believe the real value in Powerpacks at Superchargers is not for rate arbitrage but rather for peak shaving. Utility demand charges can drive up costs by several times.

 

[UncaNed]

WHAT!!??? Not this again. I recently posted asking if this is true and was told it's just BS and not really true. @reardencode have you actually done this, and am I understanding right, that you can exercise a Call option and the resulting shares somehow inherit the purchase date of the CALL option they originated from?

At least in the US the gains are shifted into the basis of the stock, so they aren't taxable until you sell. Wait a year and it's long term.

Does your accountant and brokerage agree with this?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

It's not JUST the silicon.

It's the code that runs on it, and no one is competing with Tesla and their BILLIONS of actual miles of data that have been used to optimize their algos.


NVIDIA just looks like a giant GPU. Big F-ing whoop.

I don't believe it's wise to underestimate Nvidia here. They are running machine learning for Nvidia Drive on a Top 10 supercomputer in their HQ in Santa Clara. Nvidia has a long, long reputation of being underestimated by competitors which no longer exist today. Tesla is likely to get to FSD first, and Nvidia will likely be second, and Nvidia is going to be the one selling their platform to all the non-Tesla companies. Tesla will be the Apple of FSD, but Nvidia will be the Android.

 

[Curt Renz]

Loup TV on Robotaxi - hour ago: