Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

In the standard MBA environment you are taught that it's stupid to not load up on debt due to tax reasons as it's basically free money. Technically that's true but it does increase risk as you described. Perhaps this is a good strategy for stable companies with flat revenue but we all know that Tesla isn't in that category for many reasons.

Also, the standard MBA leeches like larding companies up with debt because it's a problem the next guy will have to deal with, not them... they'll already have their golden parachute.

 

[Off Shore]

Can someone smarter than me please explan what Weber means here?

He means "All our R&D money is going into making the grilles larger, as we know that's why people buy our cars."

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Coming out with an upgrade that raises the TSLA price target to $90 is not a serious analysis. It's a lame attempt at trolling on behalf of the fossil fuel industry.

 

[Big Time]

Who needs coffee when we have a MMD to wake me up?

Oh no! For years I had mini 5 cup drip coffee maker on my bed side table. I’m a slave to the bean.

now I force myself to walk to the kitchen, work in progress.

Since I’m up...,,,spank!

 

[woodisgood]

The early hours trading capping that we have been seeing is occurring once again this morning. As TSLA tries to run back up, I am seeing large sell orders that just do not make sense for someone looking to maximize profits as they sell their position (as TSLA just tried to get above $640, there were large orders (5,000 plus shares at a time) at $640). As always, we will need to see if we get volume to steamroll the cappers.

Maybe this time it’s no capper, just Zach. We can all wave. Hi Zach!

 

[avoigt]

Can someone smarter than me please explan what Weber means here?

He reffered to CO2 generated if BEVs are not produced with trenewale energy

 

[oldTAVguy]

The early hours trading capping that we have been seeing is occurring once again this morning. As TSLA tries to run back up, I am seeing large sell orders that just do not make sense for someone looking to maximize profits as they sell their position (as TSLA just tried to get above $640, there were large orders (5,000 plus shares at a time) at $640). As always, we will need to see if we get volume to steamroll the cappers.

Remember that each share sold at 640 is bought at 640. With the buy needs of ETFs they should eventually run out of juice.

 

[MABMAB]

So is it an amateur hour pull back? Is it an attempt to scare out retail? Looking forward to the close

 

[viridi]

$640 seems to be the target at the moment. Very substantial selling each time TSLA dares to approach or cross $640. When TSLA just popped a bit above $640, it was very quickly brought down below $640 with heavy selling.

 

[jerry33]

I could see this as being useful for folks who have no way to charge an EV at home or work. Adding fifteen miles of range over lunch could be enough for a city dweller. Of course they better make sure people don’t end up wasting lots of time with codes and credit cards and broken charging spots

With Blink that will never happen. I continually watch Leaf owners having to phone Blink because of non-working equipment. Also they're only going to be charging at about 15 miles an hour. Who would spend an hour at Burger King--fifteen minutes maximum.

 

[FrankSG]

The early hours trading capping that we have been seeing is occurring once again this morning. As TSLA tries to run back up, I am seeing large sell orders that just do not make sense for someone looking to maximize profits as they sell their position (as TSLA just tried to get above $640, there were large orders (5,000 plus shares at a time) at $640). As always, we will need to see if we get volume to steamroll the cappers.

I wonder if $640 could be where Zach/Tesla set the limit at for today's share allocation.

The way I imagine it works is they set a bottom limit price, and then allocate x number of shares to each of the brokers.

 

[woodisgood]

Tomorrow would be -7 days before the inclusion date, correct? +/-3 or 7 refers to trading days and not regular days of the week?

 

[Spacep0d]

Picked up 15 more shares this morning. I was tempted to wait for a dip but I've read stories of people burned by this. Either way, in it for the long haul. I'm past 50 shares now...onward to 100 (eventually).

HODL!

 

[viridi]

The way TSLA keeps getting crushed at $640, it would make sense (as some others have been speculating) that these bring downs relate to the offering.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

$5B at $640/share is 7,812,500 shares, so if the selling pressure is from Tesla doing their cap raise, we should see that flush itself through the system fairly quickly given the volume.

 

[bkp_duke]

Cushion money. 10 shares bought at 633.03.

 

[lafrisbee]

Agree. Very interesting and thought provoking.
I think he is tongue-in-cheek because he is trying to walk a high-wire line of doing relevant reverse-engineering without revealing too much, raising the ire of Tesla legal or Musk.
One way to read it is plausible deniability: 'I was just dreaming'. There is also a tone of almost disbelief - they are further along than he thought: It is too good to be true.

His observations re. all the settings and meta-data/annotation/'augmented reality' are interesting. Maybe it is not either-or: Either classical programming, or ML/AI/Neural nets. Maybe the ML builds up a really detailed world-view - maybe more detailed than perhaps thought to make sense previously.
What are the potential benefits? Well, first of all the real-world understanding seem to be highly detailed. If it is also correct then this means that the ML-layer generating this is very good. Then that high-level world understanding is then served up to a different software layer. This layer can then drive the car - or illustrate it driving. (Some of the parameters seem game-like in that they offer the ability to fine-tune rendering of visual representation)
Is the driving layer traditionally coded or ML? We don't know. Would it make sense to have to 2 different ML-layers, one for world-view generation, and one for driving? Maybe it is legacy stuff, because the old driving software (and maybe still is) was traditionally coded.
Perhaps it still makes sense to keep this architecture to have a lot of hyper-parameters for tuning various stuff. The separation of concern also allows for debugging or verification scenarios. For developers, this would be observer-modes, debugging, or meta-observer modes.

For more visually inclined, think West World late season 2 where Maeve has the vertigo-inducing sensation of observing herself thinking, and speaking, and thinking about thinking (and thinking about thinking about ..) and early season 3 where Bernard either hacks, self-diagnoses or does a repository-rollback to another version of himself, depending on what base-layer of reality you initially assume.

(Disclaimer: I don't have any deep background in AI/ML)

I very briefly looked at it...just like I looked at the slide bars on the equalizers of high end stereo systems back in the last century before I either left them alone or pushed them all to max.

But thinking just a little bit...
First it made me think a person can go in and truly customize how the "car" behaves. They can give the "car" their personality. Then it made me think that perhaps the "car" itself will learn from the driver to reprogram itself to match the driver's inclinations. As an example, people that press the accelerator when the car is being a bit timid for their tastes. The "car" learns to go faster sooner for that driver.
Now a side point. The scale of timid/aggressive has a range where both the law is being followed AND the driver/passenger wants the "car" to behave. It is within that range that the software needs to allow the "driver" to feel as though his "car" is doing exactly as it should, and Tesla is making it so.
AND additionally, the "car" probably already has the ability to "drive like a maniac" but still be completely safe. However as this would make the "driver" and other drivers sharing the road feel uncomfortable (scare the SH!T out of them) because it is not how safe "drivers" drive. The "car" doesn't drive in the optimal parameters for neither safety or speed. It must behave within the misperceptions of "safe" of today's firmly-entrenched luddites.

Second, I could see customized settings becoming available and/or enforced due to various outside variables. Well let me give the example that one member incorrectly posted that FSD would have an issue, School Zones. To legally use FSD within certain jurisdictions the "car" might be required to have the inability to go over a "safe" speed limit, AND behave even more cautious in such zones in relation to pedestrians.
Where this would be fun for "drivers" would be at race tracks like the Nurburgring. Not only could the software be tweaked manually, but the "car" could detect the location and offer a special setting for the track...and even go so far as to adjust the settings for every feature of the track in terms of geography and climate.
But in every day FSD mode the "car" would just behave as the driver expects/wants, but also consider the expectations of other drivers so the vehicle would not operate outside of the perceived acceptable range.

Once humans become accepting of the ability of the "cars," the "cars" will eventually be allowed to drive in a safer more efficient manner than just what has been the limitations of human drivers have made the norm.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Given the recent run up and the S&P date is there anything that would preclude you from buying say $100k worth of shares this week? Is it "safer" to wait till after the inclusion date to see where things settle?

Yes and No . Judging from your posts, you seem to 'worry' a lot about $TSLA dropping. I do not know what your investment time line is, however, there is no way you can time the market, let alone $TSLA. If i had an extra $100k, i would probably be buying on down days like this and save some dry powder later on. The price difference will be a moot point in the future...it is impossible to time the highs and lows.

 

[viridi]

$640 again. Brought right down, and very quickly.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Yes and No . Judging from your posts, you seem to 'worry' a lot about $TSLA dropping. I do not know what your investment time line is, however, there is no way you can time the market, let alone $TSLA. If i had an extra $100k, i would probably be buying on down days like this and save some dry powder later on. The price difference will be a moot point in the future...it is impossible to time the highs and lows.

You weren't replying to me, but to the OP...

I bought low & I continued buying at stupid high prices.

The stupid high prices would be regarded by most as a bargain NOW.

In my opinion, there are no better performing companies than Musk's.

I expect future stock price will be higher, I define near future as 5-10 years. Future... rest of my life unless something key changes.