Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jbcarioca]

...
It is a myth that all of the population is poor, I an sure there is a mix of wealthy and middle class people, there are just about everywhere.

The best way to make a product affordable for the local population is make it in that country, especially a country like India with high import duties, and a strong desire to establish local manufacturing.

LFP 4686 energy storage batteries should have an enormous market, Battery Day has shown that the capex to establish a factory will be much lower.

The next step is Model 3s imported in knockdown kits, as an intermediate step toward possible Model 3 and eventual Model Y manufacture.

Again casting, structural packs and other efficiency improvements might reduce the capex/risk here and make this viable.
If necessary, castings/stampings could be imported.
Keep in mind India could also export to all RHD markets and is well placed geographically for the export.

Yes, it might be challenging at times, but start with energy storage batteries and do it more slowly if necessary.

I'm very confident Tesla will get a lot of support from nearly all levels of Indian government and a lot of the local population.

Production volumes can match the local market and the RHD export market,

Of course any cars smaller and cheaper than a Model 3/Y make even more sense, both for the local market and RHD export.

It is 35 years since I visited India, I'm sure a lot has changed mostly for the better, Tesla in India could do a lot to make things even better,

Clearly there is a market for electric cars in India. Given the population distribution the total likely market for anything Tesla might offer will not exceed 10 million.

Tesla will NOT sell Model 3 or Model Y in any numbers sufficient for even CKD. The Indian premium market is fo much smaller cars. The top couple fo million in India certainly could afford a Model 3 or even X but those are physically too big for India, even richest people tend towards smaller vehicles. Anything large tends to be a bus.
The new China or German designed vehicles will be smaller. Despite our image that does not necessarily mean cheaper. Things like 'pocket rockets' and quite luxurious very small vehicles tend to have good markets in EU as well as China, India and South America. No doubt Tesla will begin in India and TE products will have strong appeal. Further, were Tesla to design a very small platform for taxi/delivery/urban mobility they would act to expand an already thriving market. Tesla is constantly exploring cost efficiencies and vehicle packaging innovation. These categories will dominate Tesla India, whenever it comes, and will be very popular in European cities also.

Tesla is no longer North America centric. Remember, for most of the world the Model 3 is a very large car, too large for the highest volume categories.
For confirmation go to Bangalore (India tech leader) or any other Indian city. Before anybody howls to dispute there ARE giant cars sold in India:
Sales trends of luxury cars in India - From 2007 to 2019 | Team-BHP
Just look at the volumes. Then look at the best selling cars:
Top 10 cars sold in India in June: Maruti Suzuki Alto retains top spot
The largest growth and most likely Tesla entry is in the SUV's that would be much smaller than Model Y and have selling prices, including taxes of US$ 15000/20000.
The China designed vehicles will be in that class. Why? It is the sweet spot in several of the world's largest car markets, like China, most of the EU, all of South America. Until now those global markets have been dominated by Japanese and Korean cars, produced via CKD or more complete manufacturing, with Chinese brands (e.g.Chery is a major factor in Brazil).

In India, Brazil, and several other very large markets the vast majority of vehicles in this class are produced with local partners. That was the case in China and still is a huge factor. Tesla has pretty much pioneered a new manufacturing model that shares technology openly and uses many local suppliers that are not quite Tier One for Tesla but are for others (CATL is perhaps the best known of these).

For the next group of Tesla factories we are almost certainly going to see more of the now-traditional GF's in China, Europe and North America. For India, Brazil (Mercosur), Mexico and others there will be greater diversity in approaches, with TE and vehicles both playing leading roles.

For us at TMC most of us are vastly understating how transformational all this will be. Most, distinctly not all, of the countries are desperate to transition away from fossil fuels. That is partly about improving balance of payments and partly environmental. For the first time we are now with solar and wind plus storage cheaper than other options. Tesla and others are now reaching the point of BEV being cheaper than ICE. Zero doubt that smaller vehicles and TE will be joint forces globally. The only other players in these categories are Chinese. There is more than enough space for all of them.

India will have TE and all the Chinese to help displace the horribly dirty cheap coal and fuels. The ubiquitous Bajaj, Mahindra and Piaggio will continue to thrive moving to the smallest EV category:
Chetak – A Brand new electric scooter | The Future of Mobility
https://evduniya.com/ev-india/top-t...hicles-in-india-e-rickshaw-manufacturers.html

Right now suppliers like Bosch are leading the supply of technology to support this transition. Chinese and Indian companies will dominate almost without question with a handful of Europeans like Piaggio maintaining a strong role in the slightly, very slightly upscale part of that market:
Electric Power Range - Piaggio Commercial Vehicles

Tesla knows all of this. They are NOT about to go to India with tiny volume huge, expensive cars like the Model 3. They'll sell it probably, but the concentration is the are now in the Maruti-Suzuki/Hyundai category.

 

[Artful Dodger]

How did you know?

1st Principles thinking, and Secret Master Plans Part 1+2. Bty Day was effectively SMP Part 3.

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

India presence 2021 doesn’t necessarily mean ‘factory’. I’d wager it means store/gallery. After then it might become to mean R&D center. Finally, factory. Think logically please, people.

 

[Unpilot]

I bought my last handful at the price that shall not be spoken here and I think I'm set for a while. No, really. I promise this time. Time to ride it out to retirement.

Nope don't believe you...once an addict always an addict.
I present myself as exhibit A

 

[Freder Reeve]

"not a good look for Tesla"
this GF3 rendering:

vs reality:

Obviously the logo is in the wrong place and the trucks are almost entirely the wrong color.
Can we maybe get some money back to help survive all these record quarters?

 

[OrthoSurg]

'Cascading failure' - not heard that phrase before, but it seems apt.

I've also been considering what happens when fuel service stations start closing (UK English - garages). In some rural places, you have to go quite a long way to get fuel. It becomes a chore even for those doing few miles. Much of the elderly's mileage might be getting fuel!

When you think of this, it’s a bit crazy we had to build refueling stations everywhere in the middle of Nevada and Arizona Deserts when people have electricity available st home to recharge.


Over the years, supermarkets have been the biggest fuel sellers (many say at a loss to get people in to buy groceries). many people lease their cars and use main dealers for service. Many smaller garages (fuel and service) have closed, especially as their owners have aged. Fuel garages in UK:- 40,000 in 1967 (peak) to 8,400 in 2018 (8,000 now?).

Rural fuel garages already charge higher prices. They have less trade to spread their costs across. Where there's a garage, there's normally a village shop/post office which gets most of the trade.

In the UK we already have many rural people complaining about closing of shops, post offices (banking services, pensions, parcels) and pubs. Partly this is due to a lack of younger families and planning objections, you can't buy in the area where you grew up. But whatever the causes, facilities are closing and this is becoming an electoral/press issue. If village shops close, then newspapers can't be delivered, so the press might care more than expected.

At some point having an ICE will be a lot more difficult than having an EV and it will happen bit by bit, locally and then cascade.

 

[CyberDutchie]

It's wild that Tesla is still the only company to have over the air updates after eight years.

Not true, Mercedez Benz has it, according to NVIDIA Founder & CEO Jensen Huang who drives the new S-Class in this video with Lewis Hamilton (at 4:48 into the video):

Lots of NVIDIA tech in this car! Appearently over 30 million lines of codes and 100’s of software engineers worked on it!

But, it’s ICE so why bother buying this.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

It just struck me (I'm a bit slow) that Tesla is probably the first American car manufacturer to have a decent brand image in the rest of the world. Does anyone care about a Ford or a GM (I mean Opal) car anywhere in Europe, Japan or China? Tesla's positive world brand is quite the accomplishment all by itself.

It’s true. I had always said that I would never own an American car. Yet I now own a Model 3, my wife owns a Model 3, I have a reservation for a Cybertruck and 100% of my savings are in TSLA. The Tesla brand cannot be understated.

 

[jbcarioca]

Ford is British - it went global with the Mondeo (British car of the world with a French sounding name). Soon you are going to tell me JLR is Indian....

Don't worry about that. India is still in the Commonwealth. How do Swedes feel about Volvo being Chinese. OTOH I cannot grasp Lotus being Chinese.
We are on the verge of Tesla being factually global, with the largest-volume designs about to become Chinese and German.

 

[jbcarioca]

It’s true. I had always said that I would never own an American car. Yet I now own a Model 3, my wife owns a Model 3, I have a reservation for a Cybertruck and 100% of my savings are in TSLA. The Tesla brand cannot be understated.

My last American car was a 1955 Ford that I bought for US$50 when I was in secondary school. Then came Tesla...

 

[jbcarioca]

India presence 2021 doesn’t necessarily mean ‘factory’. I’d wager it means store/gallery. After then it might become to mean R&D center. Finally, factory. Think logically please, people.

When one thinks logically one might observe the high probability of a very different future. My post a short time about shows my thinking.
Probably I should have linked to the relevant Indian Government site:
Ministry of New & Renewable Energy - Government of India

If anybody is to understand the potential of India for Tesla a quick review of Indian government policy is necessary.
It 'ain't' about a gallery.

 

[Krugerrand]

It 'ain't' about a gallery.

For 2021, sure it is. Context matters. There’s no way in any mythical place that Tesla announces anything more for India next year. Too much already on their plate and bigger fish to fry first.

 

[kbM3]

Not true, Mercedez Benz has it, according to NVIDIA Founder & CEO Jensen Huang who drives the new S-Class in this video with Lewis Hamilton (at 4:48 into the video):

Lots of NVIDIA tech in this car! Appearently over 30 million lines of codes and 100’s of software engineers worked on it!

But, it’s ICE so why bother buying this.

‘Tesla has very very extensive OTA. Look for other carmakers to brag they have it, even if it applies extremely minimally (like just some infotainment functions) and is very rarely used in practice.

 

[S3XY]

The slide doesn't really cover it. I have started to assume it is a combination of weight and volume also. I did some calcs here assuming volume only as the denominator but the results are perhaps too good... What is clear is Elon is obfuscating intentionally - sandbagging or otherwise.

Actually, I think it all comes down to power density. Whether you reduce volume or weight you are increasing the density of power stored. The new materials in the anode and cathode also increase the amount of power as well as the number of charge cycles.

 

[Christine69420]

‘Tesla has very very extensive OTA. Look for other carmakers to brag they have it, even if it applies extremely minimally (like just some infotainment functions) and is very rarely used in practice.

I believe they update the driver assist systems too. The brochure I read said nothing about map updates. A few years back it took my local MB dealer two days to update the map of my Mercedes.

But tuning engine, brakes etc? Don't think so.

Edit: Found the blurb online:

More than 50 electronic components in the new S-Class can be updated with new software over-the-air (OTA). These include the entire MBUX infotainment system, the driver display, the driving assistance systems and the MULTIBEAM LED and DIGITAL LIGHT lighting systems. This technology saves the customer time, as he/she does not need to visit a workshop for this purpose. Furthermore, the vehicle remains up to date throughout its lifecycle and is equipped for new features.

Source: The new Mercedes-Benz S-Class | Daimler

 

[BornToFly]

I’m still surprised that F and GM (and NKLA) were green yesterday after posting lower sales, and TSLA was down over 7% after a 40+% sales increase. Hopefully there will be a strong reversal Monday....

 

[Driver Dave]

Not true, Mercedez Benz has it, according to NVIDIA Founder & CEO Jensen Huang who drives the new S-Class in this video with Lewis Hamilton (at 4:48 into the video):

Lots of NVIDIA tech in this car! Appearently over 30 million lines of codes and 100’s of software engineers worked on it!

But, it’s ICE so why bother buying this.

How can anyone who has the money buy an expensive slow dirty smelly gas car over the smooth fast ride that is a Tesla?

When I see someone driving a BMW or Merc, I'm like, why on earth are you driving that flip phone?

TSLA will continue to grow and looking at the competition right now so so far behind, will continue to dominate.

ICE industry will continue to decline, merge, decline, merge some more, decline, and then merge into Last Man Standing Inc. that will just service the remaining ICE cars there, until it too disappears in a poof.

 

[gabeincal]

Any thoughts on moving a margin account from E*TRADE to IBKR? Their margin interest is about 80% less than the former and that itself is a huge selling point of course.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Actually, I think it all comes down to power density. Whether you reduce volume or weight you are increasing the density of power stored. The new materials in the anode and cathode also increase the amount of power as well as the number of charge cycles.

I think you mean energy density? Power and energy mean quite different things. Power is how much work you are doing in an instant of time. It is an instantaneous measure of output. Energy is total amount of work the storage device can output.

So power density relates to how much acceleration the car can achieve or how fast supercharger can occur. Energy density relates to range.

 

[Cosmacelf]

More than 50 electronic components in the new S-Class can be updated with new software over-the-air (OTA). These include the entire MBUX infotainment system, the driver display, the driving assistance systems and the MULTIBEAM LED and DIGITAL LIGHT lighting systems. This technology saves the customer time, as he/she does not need to visit a workshop for this purpose. Furthermore, the vehicle remains up to date throughout its lifecycle and is equipped for new features.

Source: The new Mercedes-Benz S-Class | Daimler

Nice to finally see. Not as complete as Tesla, but helpful nonetheless. Notice the wiggle room they gave themselves, “and is equipped for new features”. Ie. We have no intention of upgrading your car to the new model year’s snazzy features, but we could if we wanted to.