Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

I think it's our unwillingness to part with shares that is causing all the volatility. Imagine having actual sellers with rational price targets. Would be a lot harder to drive the price up to suck in traders. We only have ourselves to blame.

 

[Uncle Ron]

Wonder what’s the outcome that Elon and the team is looking for. Any guesses? /s

Steady growth without wild manipulation and fluctuation. Safe haven for small investors wanting to invest in a livable tomorrow for their children and grand children.

 

[humbaba]

I think it's our unwillingness to part with shares that is causing all the volatility. Imagine having actual sellers with rational price targets. Would be a lot harder to drive the price up to suck in traders. We only have ourselves to blame.

are you saying that my $10k price target is irrational? Why, I resemble that remark!

 

[Mo City]

Top 10 U.S. stocks. TSLA and JNJ each slipped a notch:

AAPL 2.29T
AMZN 1.75T
MSFT 1.72T
GOOG 1.13T
FB 841.7B
BRK.A 520.9B
V 454.0B
TSLA 442.7B
WMT 418.0B
JNJ 398.9B

 

[MABMAB]

Did I see some chatter yesterday to pay attention for SP news at 5:15?

 

[Robocop]

Financing this purchase would be a better option than liquidating an appreciating asset like TSLA shares.

Yeah, on the one hand, he basically just bought a $600,000 Model Y. On the other, I will likely have to liquidate a large % of shares to help buy our first home. Financially-wise? Probably not. But if you want the thing more than anything else in the world, it may be worth it. Also, he can monetize his channel a bit with some actual hardware-specific reviews etc. (with an actual car).

That said, I'm also planning on getting a Y, and will simply finance. The interest I pay on my future $ is much less than the gains I'll make by still having some income to invest in the near term.

 

[PokerFJÆS]

From my TD feed: Shares of Tesla Inc. (TSLA) took a hit in premarket trading, but were still up 1.9%, after the electric vehicle maker disclosed a deal to sell up to $5 billion worth of its stock in an "at-the-market" offering program. Just before the offering was disclosed (Tesla's stock keeps rising, after soaring 74% in August for biggest monthly gain in 7 years), the stock was up as much as 7.9%. At Monday's closing price of $498.32, the program could represent up to 10 million shares, or about 1.1% of the shares outstanding. The "equity distribution agreement" was made with a host of Wall Street firms as sales agents, including Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Barclays, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank Securities, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, SG Americas, Wells Fargo and BNP Paribas. The sales agents will receive a commission of up to 0.5% of the proceeds. The stock has rocketed nearly fivefold (up 495.6%) year to date through Monday, while the S&P 500 has gained 8.3%.

One thing I like about Tesla's "capital raise" is that it incentivises a number of sophisticated big players (such as Goldman Sachs) against attempts to manipulate the stock down. And it keeps the incentives in place for a longer time than we've been seeing so far.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Here's a theory for the $5B raise. Seems that some Congress critters are worried about Chinese involvement in US space. (see Elon Musk's SpaceX NASA contracts threatened over Tesla China ties) And while SpaceX has zero dealings with China, Elon's other company, Tesla, has a $1.4B line of credit with Chinese state banks. So, this could be a plan A or plan B to either assuage Congress that Tesla can stand on its own without Chinese credit, or to even pay off the loans.

My own $0.02: Tesla has very real exposure to China. Not only for the loans (which Tesla could easily pay off), but for their factory and a significant percentage of Tesla's overall revenue. And if China wanted to, they absolutely could put pressure on Elon given this. In such a scenario, I believe Elon would call their bluff and tell them to pound sand (at a potentially catastrophic medium term hit to Tesla's share price). But as one of the aides quoted in the article above, that requires you to believe in the good faith of one man, Elon. This isn't how national security concerns are addressed. The US Government forces companies to divest based on national security concerns. Look no further than what's happening right now with TikTok for an example.

This is more of a SpaceX problem than it is a Tesla problem. Tesla is joined at the hip with China, for better or worse. I don't think there are going to be too many national security concerns about car manufacturing. SpaceX, however, is different as the difference between a commercial rocket and a ballistic missile is slim indeed.

 

[Todd Burch]

Top 10 U.S. stocks. TSLA and JNJ each slipped a notch:

AAPL 2.29T
AMZN 1.75T
MSFT 1.72T
GOOG 1.13T
FB 841.7B
BRK.A 520.9B
V 454.0B
TSLA 442.7B
WMT 418.0B
JNJ 398.9B

I said it before, I'll say it again.

How the flying fudge is Facebook worth almost 2x Tesla? Damn millenials.

 

[elasalle]

I said it before, I'll say it again.

How the flying fudge is Facebook worth almost 2x Tesla? Damn millenials.

Just put Facebook app on Tesla screen

 

[Nocturnal]

Did I see some chatter yesterday to pay attention for SP news at 5:15?

That is the time that they update news on their website, at least per the previous announcements.

I said it before, I'll say it again.

How the flying fudge is Facebook worth almost 2x Tesla? Damn millenials.

Boomers. Millenials are less likely to use FB. Think Twitter and Insta. I don't get it either. Sure it's a huge user base but social networks seem too cyclical.

Here's a theory for the $5B raise. Seems that some Congress critters are worried about Chinese involvement in US space. (see Elon Musk's SpaceX NASA contracts threatened over Tesla China ties) And while SpaceX has zero dealings with China, Elon's other company, Tesla, has a $1.4B line of credit with Chinese state banks. So, this could be a plan A or plan B to either assuage Congress that Tesla can stand on its own without Chinese credit, or to even pay off the loans.

I have zero faith that our current government would do something that subtle.

 

[FYMR]

I do find it amusing that I always see newer investors say things like "oh man, I wish I had bought Tesla earlier. Now it's too much. I'll wait for a dip." then when it dips they are too afraid to buy.

Hahaha, That is a daily occurrence at my workplace from so many that watch and comment from the peanut gallery.

 

[Mo City]

Yeah, on the one hand, he basically just bought a $600,000 Model Y. On the other, I will likely have to liquidate a large % of shares to help buy our first home. Financially-wise? Probably not. But if you want the thing more than anything else in the world, it may be worth it. Also, he can monetize his channel a bit with some actual hardware-specific reviews etc. (with an actual car).

That said, I'm also planning on getting a Y, and will simply finance. The interest I pay on my future $ is much less than the gains I'll make by still having some income to invest in the near term.

If you are selling shares to finance the down-payment of a new home for your family, congrats! This is what life is all about. Buying your first home is an amazing experience.

If you are paying cash, hmm.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Today was the 2nd highest close ever.
highest VWAP ever.
Woohoo!

You’ve told us three times today that VWAP is very high. Can you explain what VWAP is, why according to you it is important and why you want to keep us up to date so often?

(Speaking as both investor and moderator)

 

[Singuy]

Here's a theory for the $5B raise. Seems that some Congress critters are worried about Chinese involvement in US space. (see Elon Musk's SpaceX NASA contracts threatened over Tesla China ties) And while SpaceX has zero dealings with China, Elon's other company, Tesla, has a $1.4B line of credit with Chinese state banks. So, this could be a plan A or plan B to either assuage Congress that Tesla can stand on its own without Chinese credit, or to even pay off the loans.

My own $0.02: Tesla has very real exposure to China. Not only for the loans (which Tesla could easily pay off), but for their factory and a significant percentage of Tesla's overall revenue. And if China wanted to, they absolutely could put pressure on Elon given this. In such a scenario, I believe Elon would call their bluff and tell them to pound sand (at a potentially catastrophic medium term hit to Tesla's share price). But as one of the aides quoted in the article above, that requires you to believe in the good faith of one man, Elon. This isn't how national security concerns are addressed. The US Government forces companies to divest based on national security concerns. Look no further than what's happening right now with TikTok for an example.

This is more of a SpaceX problem than it is a Tesla problem. Tesla is joined at the hip with China, for better or worse. I don't think there are going to be too many national security concerns about car manufacturing. SpaceX, however, is different as the difference between a commercial rocket and a ballistic missile is slim indeed.

China can reach orbit a long ass time ago and has plenty of nukes that can reach the U.S. Maybe the Chinese are looking into re-usable warheads to save money during world war 3? LoL

 

[Singuy]

I said it before, I'll say it again.

How the flying fudge is Facebook worth almost 2x Tesla? Damn millenials.

Facebook prints money by linking to scam websites just so you can have your credit card info stolen.

 

[Krugerrand]

I have no basis for this other than a feeling but I feel like we're going to see a big rise toward the close, and we might close near zero for the day. I dunno, today just feels shady. Like the big whales are trying to dupe the retail investors that recently jumped in for a quick buck, scare them out of their money, then get back in for the S&P rise.

Well, it was at least an interesting piece of fiction.

 

[dww12]

OT - Is it me or does ZM make NKLA look rational? 129B (1/3 TSLA) for web conferencing? Can’t FB or Google or MSFT crank that out for a few hundred million? Logmein is $5B. My inner Gordon is coming out.

 

[Todd Burch]

Well, it was at least an interesting piece of fiction.

My hunch was correct, but only right here:

Squint so you can see where I was right.

 

[db93]

You’ve told us three times today that VWAP is very high. Can you explain what VWAP is, why according to you it is important and why you want to keep us up to date so often?

(Speaking as both investor and moderator)

The volume weighted average price (VWAP) is a trading benchmark used by traders that gives the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price. It is important because it provides traders with insight into both the trend and value of a security