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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
adiggs
Well-Known Member
It's a pretty good historical rate of unit growth over the previous 5 years, and is difficult to sustain for 5-10 years into the future. That doesn't mean that every year is 40% - it means that some years are closer to 0% and some closer to 100% (such as the next year or two, as you identify), and it works out to 40% over an extended period.
Saw my first Model Y today...pretty cool!
To bad it was at a repair shop with front end damage.
I had to take my S in to get repair work done and saw it there.
On topic....Sp go down I buy...SP go up I smile!
To bad it was at a repair shop with front end damage.
I had to take my S in to get repair work done and saw it there.
On topic....Sp go down I buy...SP go up I smile!
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Wanted to elaborate on the stress of being suddenly stupid rich and how to cope. Seriously we have seen a ton of members here wanting to sell, just because the share price finally, finally went ballistic. I also get dizzy looking at the adding of zeros in my account at a breathtaking rate. It can get to you, you start to have fear of loss, panic, exuberance etc.. Then you might want to sell just because of that. Then there' s your broker, friend (fill in whomever) pestering you to lock in gains, as in "nobody went bankrupt selling at a profit" and such utter BS.
Volatility will remain crazy and MM manipulation might be a thing or not, fact is (IMO) you cannot swing trade succesfully over a long period of time, you will miss out because the big swings occur out of the blue mostly. Shorting is a thing, but I could not care less, since I cannot control it. But the volatility can get to you as we all now. It should not lead to bad emotional selling. You will miss the opportunity of a lifetime.
Here's how I started to try to cope with this problem in order to make decisions as rational as possible.
I allocate a price tag to TSLA by end of 2020 (out of thin air, gut feeling, car sales etc., just to be pessimistic) and then I come up with a truly basic model. The model is just believing what Elon says and has delivered upon in the past, always. Then I reduce the projection, just to be on the safe side, sort of real bearish. With the said number my account looks less dramatic and I cut out the noise.
Elon says Tesla (the company) will grow 50% YOY over the coming years barring a black swan event, so my model: YOY growth 40%
Base price end of 2020 (all numbers to be seen pre split) = 1'500 USD
So here you have my model for TSLA which keeps me sane and remain patient:
2020 1’500
2021 2’100
2022 2’940
2023 4’116
2024 5’762
It becomes evident that the share price might have appreciated to quick, but the compounded growth in the coming years shows that 2000 something is still a steal. This way of allocating a lower price to TSLA in my account together with the outlook over 5 to 10 years gives me piece of mind, I stop thinking of selling, and the dizzyness due to the crazy runup becomes less. Try it out !
Disclaimer: I have gathered insight here since 2009, and have been invested since IPO, accumulating over time, barring stupid selling when the stock doubled from 17 to 38, then again at 180.. have regretted these sales and got wiser. Bought everything back at around 230 on average.
Good luck to you all, stay long !
PS: Of course selling because of personal needs / aquisitions etc. are OK
Edit: Typo, clarification / distinction TSLA (stock) and Tesla (company)
Thank you for this post. I have similar thought process and a similar model based on EBIDTA. I also go back to the ARK analysis once in a while if I have any doubts. I to look at my account in disbelief. I am way beyond my retirement goals as still have plenty of time to add more savings.
No one, except my wife, knows we hold TSLA and how much. I have even asked my wife to not to bring it up as I really don't want it known. We just don't get into discussion of stocks (or money) with friends/family.
Probably a good thing as there is no one to talk us into selling
.
smorgasbord
Active Member
LOL, an incorrect postulation and calculation should not give anyone piece of mind.
larmor
Active Member
The first rule of TSLA club is...Thank you for this post. I have similar thought process and a similar model based on EBIDTA. I also go back to the ARK analysis once in a while if I have any doubts. I to look at my account in disbelief. I am way beyond my retirement goals as still have plenty of time to add more savings.
No one, except my wife, knows we hold TSLA and how much. I have even asked my wife to not to bring it up as I really don't want it known. We just don't get into discussion of stocks (or money) with friends/family.
Probably a good thing as there is no one to talk us into selling
Really, when the market chose to ignore the Tesla story for the past five plus years, no need to poke the bear. Remain curious how they are going to make a larger heavier truck (cyber) with better range, faster, and have towing capacity.
Well don't we all have our own postulation and calculation?
Mine would surely be different than any other here.
It used to be derogatory and used against the movement. I think when Cramer used it as well as Dan Ives it is a leftover. I hope our community can educate others to the use the proper terminology.
Fool has somehow gotten worse. Basically seeking derpa now.
Why Tesla Stock Pulled Back Today | The Motley Fool
Consider: Calling for Tesla stock to shoot up another 71% on the back of "robust and stronger than expected" demand would seem a bit irrationally exuberant in light of last week's news that registrations of Chinese-built Teslas fell 24% in July. Predicting a "perfect storm of demand" when demand just declined would seem to fly in the face of reality.
These guys have zero credibility based on this one paragraph (assuming they had any). Anyone following Tesla knows this is a common, and invariably BS argument.
Why Tesla Stock Pulled Back Today | The Motley Fool
Consider: Calling for Tesla stock to shoot up another 71% on the back of "robust and stronger than expected" demand would seem a bit irrationally exuberant in light of last week's news that registrations of Chinese-built Teslas fell 24% in July. Predicting a "perfect storm of demand" when demand just declined would seem to fly in the face of reality.
These guys have zero credibility based on this one paragraph (assuming they had any). Anyone following Tesla knows this is a common, and invariably BS argument.
Oh. Em. Gee. $87/share 2021 price target. Gordon may save us all, sell everything, while you still can!
Tesla shares soar, yet 'there is no secret sauce': analyst on why he remains bearish
Tesla shares soar, yet 'there is no secret sauce': analyst on why he remains bearish
Probably the same place that "electrified vehicle" came from. Since an "electrified vehicle" includes even a mild hybrid. Just a term to confuse people and make them think that the OEMs are making more progress than they are.
He expects another 5:1 stock split?
In order for me to match my returns with his, I have to go outside and sit fire to 26lbs of cash in 100s.
Lovely. Every time this joker makes a TV appearance TSLA goes up. I was thinking we will end slightly in the green but now I'm very bullish
Here in Seattle Amazon/Microsoft/Google land, I'm seeing sometimes multiple MY's a day for quite some time now.
larmor
Active Member
Saw a model Y four weeks ago in colorado, and in the dallas area see them often as well.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Karen was always excited about supercapacitors
And for very good reasons! I also notice she just *loves* anything powered by hydrogen!
FWIW, KC is a fairly weak market for Teslas and I'm seeing quite a few model Ys. Feels like more compared to how many 3s there were early in the ramp.
dgodfrey
Member
I feel like such an underachiever after watching this guy. He wears a suit and tie to work from home. Some days I don't even wear pants.
Maybe he was reading those comments a week or so ago that were pushing to dress for success and stuff. It's not working.
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