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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I wouldn't be entirely surprised if the current trade war/financial cold war moves made by the US administration will eventually have consequences for Tesla's operations in China. This has been on my mind for a few months, but the latest step of forcing Tencent to divest moves it a step closer to being a likely counterplay.

I don't think this is an existential risk to Tesla at this point, due to their strong balance sheet. But if it does happen, the share price is going to get hammered. Tesla will effectively have lost a year and lose a lot of valuable institutional manufacturing knowledge if they are somehow constricted or forced out of their China operations.

Don't know if politics belongs in this thread, but being from a country that is completely at China's mercy when it comes to politics, I'm actually glad to see the US standing up to the Chinese Communist party's flexing. I'm not at all comfortable with the CCP extending their totalitarian policies worldwide, and the United States is really the only viable balancing force. Even if it's painful, it's worth a lot of sacrifice to curtail the CCP's power. The biggest mistake from the United States leadership was to not start adapting their strategy on that front years ago.

Just sucks big time if Tesla is caught in the middle of that fight. They're honestly in a bit of a precarious position right now, to my eye.

The Chinese are very good at playing the long game. They know close economic ties with the US are still too important for the Chinese economy. They also know Trump will probably be gone in half a year and the new administration will likely have a more constructive policy. They will ride it out and maybe respond with some symbolic action, but nothing drastic that could hurt companies like Tesla.
 
I just received this sponsored message on LinkedIn:

BMW lul.jpg


Oh no! 77KM electric-only range with an asterisk... how can I resist this amazing offer :oops:
 
Once new car sales are 95% EVs, It is hard to imagine what kind of charging networks will be built, and who might build them.
The problems with charging networks (other than Superchargers) are: 1) It's hard to make a profit because it's cheaper and easier to charge at home so they are reliant upon road trips (Example: ChargePoint charges $0.61/kWh for a L2 workplace charger vs $0.73 for home charging). Yes, there are apartment dwellers, but as BEVs become more common, to be able to rent an apartment will require charging facilities, so urban charging is pretty short term. 2) Other vehicle manufacturers do not want to invest the capital in them, so they are waiting for government to step up and/or putting chargers in inconvenient and not always available locations (dealers) because it's cheaper.
 
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It's quite amazing that all other charging networks are so poor. It's just a charging network - people have been charging since batteries were invented. But the fragmentation of the network, lack of real motivation by legacy OEMs, and varying software standards across vehicles and charging networks make the conditions required for a real competitor to Tesla almost impossible.

When Tesla started rolling out their network I thought they would probably stop after a few years as there would be enough good alternative networks available that Tesla wouldn't need to expand theirs. That turned out to be very wrong.
The economics of charging networks is just not there. Tesla uses it in place of advertising, so they don't really care about whether it is stand-alone-business profitable.
 
The economics of charging networks is just not there. Tesla uses it in place of advertising, so they don't really care about whether it is stand-alone-business profitable.

Completely agree in hindsight, but (to me at least) that was something which was not obvious at the time. I thought it was a given that the world was going electric and there would be enterprising people to take up the opportunity. When you look at all the hope and dream companies that are out there, someone creating a decent charging network sounded like a relatively safe assumption.

I still believe it's true that chargers will be needed in the long term for road-tripping and that the number of potential customers for chargers will rise exponentially as the global fleet transitions to EVs - but no-one has cracked the economic model (save as you say Tesla's advertising expense) for them yet. If there was to be a successful independent charging network it would need money with a 20+ year time horizon that is willing to spend the CapEx now to get prime locations and have the customer base come to them over time. A hard sale indeed.
 
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Tried to install Wechat the other day on my dad's phone. You can't even do it without another Wechat member vouching for you. And that wechat member needs to have an account open for at least 6 months. Needless to say we deleted the app. He just wanted to face time his relatives. So I'm not sure how far ranging consequences wechat is considering it's a super Chinese app geared toward only people in China.
As a sidebar: This mirrors how one can become a member of the Chinese Communist Party, which I think is the best system to be used to gather members of any political party in the world.
What this does is keep the party an elite group which maintains focus and core values, and excludes the nutjobs and idiots (of which are the majority of all nations). New members have to perform extended initiation periods before becoming full party members as well.
Our 2 major political system encourage ALL people no matter how pathetic, corrupt, clueless, and self-serving to join them. If you have a pulse you can be a cherished member. The lower 51% can completely derail either party and are the easiest to be fooled.controlled.
Back to Wechat... The Communist Party is playing the old Korean Game of if you commit a crime against the state the government may kill you and all your relatives back to your second cousins. (At least that is what one of my old college friends told me, and I believe him because he was 22nd inline for the Korean throne.:rolleyes:)
 
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08:00 a.m. Whistle: Fri, 07 Jul 2020
  • TSLA share price: $1493.30 +3.80 +0.26%
  • Pre-market Volume: 20,054 shares (08:00 ET)
View attachment 573356

Comment: "Pre-Market Volume is TINY" :p

Cheers!

Well this is interesting. TSLA has shot up to a Pre-market high of $1502.93 as of 08:38 ET.

Must be some news, wot?

Cheers!
 
About zero chance. China sees Musk as the most innovative person of our generation. They welcome his presence in China as much as possible to learn or to steal, either way they need him.
You left out the old saw, "A rising tide lifts all..." With TSLA in the midst of the major "true" Chinese industrial giants those companies advance at a faster pace. Just look at CATL as a direct example.
 
OT, feel free to move to Supercharger thread if N/A

I frequent a non-Tesla forum as much for entertainment as well as an attempt to defuse anti-Tesla FUD which I think we all owe it to the mission. A lot of you do battle on Twitter and Reddit but there's still so much misinformation out there, there's enough work for all of us.

I try to source my push back as much as possible with hard evidence and well researched articles. You would think it's an easy task and on the surface, it kind of is. Defending Tesla is like shooting fish in a barrel compared to what the legacy automakers are going to battle with.

I mention this not to toot my own horn but the topic of the supercharger network is a real hot button for some that are so brand loyal and delusional as a result of their disdain for all things Tesla. This can be very frustrating when you post trip itineraries comparing a Tesla with a Bolt. A 4 1/2 hour total Tesla charging stop vs 12 1/2 hours for the Bolt for the same trip will get responses such as "the Bolt will charge to 50% in approximately the same time as a Tesla", or "there's more public charging portals than superchargers", Supercharges aren't reliable either", etc.

It's either ignore the evidence, move the goalposts, or make up some new statistic easily refuted. Their myopic viewpoint IMO is worse than some we hear on our side of the fence (and some of us do tend to sugarcoat and defend Tesla with a bias, I certainly do) if only because we can show proof that the Supercharge Network is superior in any metric you choose. By believing it isn't, or that it soon won't be, not only robs you of the pleasures of fast, easy, convenient long distance travel, it clouds the decisions of the guy that reads your opinion and also believes it's true. That guy eventually discovers the truth but is so disappointed with the reality of long distance travel in a non-Tesla, they not only give up on BEV's, the also tell all their friends, BEV's aren't ready for long distance trips.

I try to implore any naysayer to rent a Tesla for a weekend and do a 1,000 trip, unplanned, throw a dart on a map and go. See how painless it can be. No malfunctioning card readers, screens you can't read, broken kiosks, multiple memberships, cords that don't reach, throw a chicken bone over your shoulder when plugging in, kludgey apps, 50kW max charge, phone call to main office, move to next charger three times, expensive, 30 minute max charging, illogical locations for road trips, the list is endless.
What escapes me though is if the public charging infrastructure is already superior to the Supercharger Network, then why do they bitch about it being a walled garden? Stay with your network and we'll stay with ours.

To bring this full circle, the bragging that Mark Ruess (president of GM) did about the EVgo partnership (remember the Bechtel one?) misses the point completely about what the non-Tesla owners really want. GM's focus on this build out is for apartment dwellers, (is this the Lyric and Hummer demographic?) not road trippers. It's for urban centers, not boondocks where you really need them. They can't hit the target because they don't even see it.