Fine, fine. Bought a few at $1353. Jeez.
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Fine, fine. Bought a few at $1353. Jeez.
Many suburbs have more people than Norways 5.5 mill so no offense taken.
I haven't done any numbers but would guess some markets are more profitable than others for Tesla. Like the Netherlands last year. So it make sense for Tesla to be lumpy.
Besides that someone has to buy those e-Trons. We all want more EVs right - regardless of brand? I believe my fellow Norwegians are taking one for the team. Team Earth.
Yes exactly, that seems to be the current model, but I think they will end up going further. Essentially the code is:
if(NeuralNetDetectsATrafficCone())
{
Do some hard coded C++ avoidance stuff here;
}
And I think thats one level too low. I think the number of edge cases and weirdness is just too massive for any normal software engineering to handle. I reckon that code will end up looking like this:
if(NeuralNetSeesSomethingWeird())
{
neural nets decides what to do here;
}
I get the impression thats what Karpathy wants, but there is likely pushback because its scary as hell. The problem is, the first approach STILL requries humans to anticipate every poissible 'issue' and wriote code to respond. You are *bound* to miss things. Thus the 75%/25% NN/C++ split may be a 'local maxima' where that approach gets you to 99% autonomous but never 100%. They may *have* to switch to pure NN systems to get to 100%. We know a pure NN can do it, because human drivers do it.
It doesnt worry me as an investor though, because the value of Tesla having autopilot at 99% FSD is still HUGE, so they can ride out that cash for however long it takes them to go 99-100%.
Disclaimer: Teslas coding team know way, way more about this than me, obviously.
Uh oh. Here we go again.
For [no] arguments sake, I totally agree with you - please don't repeat what you just said all over again. It won't make it any more or less true.
U
I do have to ask though. Why not just state your negativity straight out, and not bother trying to camouflage it with positive nuggets that we all see clearly through?
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If your posts are a true reflection of how you feel, I highly recommend you take a short position out immediately (tho I get the feeling you have already).
I made the same mistake of selling about 10% of my position in the high 800's. I had been a buy and hold but after going through the ups and down and reading all the trades other people had made I thought I should probably sell some and buy back more when it drops back. I was so caught up in this sell some mentality prior to March that I completely missed the March low's to add more. Lesson learned.The stock has risen 50% since I decided to be "smart" and sell a few shares in the low 900s after that run up earlier in the year. I'm not making that mistake again.
Chip swapping makes no sense. Even if the chip were socketed (which I'm so certain it is not I won't even bother checking) it would make no sense. Why?
Producing the chip is going to be the most expensive part of the board. The rest of it will have some cost, but it won't be that much. So while there is some marginal cost savings to be had here there isn't much. And it would be reduced by using a socket (which would also introduce other problems).
Even if you wanted to have the problems of a socketed chip and for some reason care about the slight improvement to cost let's talk about swapping the chip. This is *not* your PC where you unplug it, pop the case off, pull the CPU, socket the new one and call it good. For starters, the entire board will have to be removed anyway and this is a significant operation taking quite a bit of time to perform. The board was designed to be swappable, but it was crammed in and is not as simple as saying "swap the board." If the chip were socketed it wouldn't be that much more to do (because you already pulled the board), but there is greater risk (e.g., the service tech damaging a pin). The point is that it is *more* work to do the service replacement which is going to have an incremental cost that eats into whatever savings might have been achieved by solely replacing the chip. And since the chip is surface mounted it becomes a *lot* more work.
So, doing a chip swap will cost more, take longer, and has higher risk with effectively the same cost. Why bother? It was designed for board swapping and that is how Tesla will handle them (not that I think they will ever upgrade current vehicles past HW3, but that is a different post).
[edit: as for being designed for compatibility? Nope, no way. Just look at the HW3 design -- it is absolutely optimized for what it is without any concession. Trying to cram a new design into an old introduces compromises and there's no point to do doing it in this case. Again, not PCs]
Am I so spoiled that I cringe at the thought of driving ICE ever again?If any of you don't get this then rent a non-TeslaEV for a week and go on a road trip. I did for 3 days. I'll never go back!
Dave Lee put together a nice video on this. I think most of us that truly grew up middle class or lower have to deal with this mindset if we want to truly gain wealth.
Considering we are talking about Waymo FSD vs Tesla I'll throw in my 2 cents.
I'm not an expert on neural nets or any of this. I do work in tech so I know just enough to realize how little I do know. We live in a real physical world and we can take examples from the longest running NN program ever, life.
Life on Earth has continually adapted and improved for 6 billion or so years. Life has tested all sorts of ways to navigate our physical environment, but one system is dominant. Vision. The surface of our planet is bathed in radiation constantly and life has decided to mostly use the visible spectrum to get around. Yes there are exceptions for animals that live in dark areas such as echo-location among Cetaceans and bats, and electrical impulses like you see in Sharks etc. but those are only used because visible light is not available. Furthermore, human life/cities/streets are all designed to be navigated through vision.
Given that, I don't know why anyone thinks LIDAR is the way forward.
Dave Lee put together a nice video on this. I think most of us that truly grew up middle class or lower have to deal with this mindset if we want to truly gain wealth.
Am I so spoiled that I cringe at the thought of driving ICE ever again?
Yup, spoiled rotten. "I wonder what the ICE people are doing now?" As if they are cave dwellers. Only exception is if someone can't afford one yet, but theirs is coming soon.
Today, I literally have to drive my Murano bc I need to tow a trailer. Means I hv to seriously pay attn to the road. So use to FSD that it scares me without it. I'm not making this up.
II wouldn't be surprised if they're making aircraft in five or ten years.
Am I so spoiled that I cringe at the thought of driving ICE ever again?
Yup, spoiled rotten. "I wonder what the ICE people are doing now?" As if they are cave dwellers. Only exception is if someone can't afford one yet, but theirs is coming soon.
Today, I literally have to drive my Murano bc I need to tow a trailer. Means I hv to seriously pay attn to the road. So use to FSD that it scares me without it. I'm not making this up.
I assume same with Model Y with is next on the agenda? I get it, but still sucks.Bad news - at least with Model X, tow mode leaves you with adaptive cruise, but disables autopilot / driver assist. And yes, it's at least annoying, whether it leaves one scared or not.
I find the 60 mile tow run I do reasonably often is more fatiguing without autopilot, than most of the day of driving we for the 500 mile day trip to Seattle and back to Portland.
I assume same with Model Y with is next on the agenda? I get it, but still sucks.
FSD Trailering - Feature request?
Yes, like Minnesota, Colorado, Wisconsin, Maryland, Missouri, Indiana, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Arizona, Washington, Virginia, New Jersey, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New York, Florida, taxes and California.
Actually, you guys have more small states (by population) than I expected!