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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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But we agree that Elon was completely wrong, correct? "Current trends" were increasing cases at that point.
March 19 4,581 new daily cases
May 1 36,007 new daily cases

United States Coronavirus: 1,411,148 Cases and 83,564 Deaths - Worldometer
Let's forget about Elon. Let's say individual EM was predicting 0 new cases by end of April. Institution GOV (and a whole bunch who followed) was predicting 2 million deaths by around the same time. Which was more wrong? Which was more directionally wrong at least? Where is the outrage towards institution, which by the way closed the whole country (and afected almost the whole world), when individual was just a Twitter user sharing his opinion with no political power to act on it?
 
Just to remind all of the value of analysts:

Yahoo Finance consensus says that A) the stock is overvalued and B) the performance outlook for the short-, mid- and long-term are positive.

???

Yahoo finance.png
 
I still don't think the management at the big OEM's (with the possible exception of Herbert Diess at VW) are prepared for the speed at which the change will take place. Specifically, how soon the tidal wave will hit, and how high and broad it will be. Most of them are/will be totally unprepared. They won't know what's really hitting them until the tidal wave has risen out of the ocean and is looking down upon them right before it breaks.

It will hit them like a rogue wave. Long denied by the incumbents (scientists), but spoken of by a handful of sailors. Even if you can see one coming, and even if the captain controls the ship perfectly, there's still a significant risk of going under.

 
Just to remind all of the value of analysts:

Yahoo Finance consensus says that A) the stock is overvalued and B) the performance outlook for the short-, mid- and long-term are positive.

???

View attachment 541305

Yeah, I've noticed that. Thought I was missing something or it would "update" or something. But no, it's just stupid and illogical.
 
But we agree that Elon was completely wrong, correct? "Current trends" were increasing cases at that point.
March 19 4,581 new daily cases
May 1 36,007 new daily cases

United States Coronavirus: 1,411,148 Cases and 83,564 Deaths - Worldometer

Nope.
How many tests were done by March 19 vs May 1st?
March 19 we were being warned about how few tests were being conducted and how rather number of cases were going to sky rocket as more testing became available. More cases, more hospitalizations, health care system overwhelmed and massive death toll. This was the rationale for widespread shutdown.

This has not happened. As testing has increased but the number of daily cases has held steady now for several weeks. 36000 new daily cases in a population of 331 million is about 0.01%. I would argue that This number meets the criteria of close to zero and he is closer to being right than ‘completely wrong’

We are just not seeing numbers as high as feared in mid-March. Other than a few high Population density pockets, health care system has not been overwhelmed. This is true even in areas that were late with shutdowns or never shutdown at all.

So no, we do not agree Elon was wrong.
 

The County is trying to extricate themselves from this disaster of a position by pretending they are still directing the show! It's comical and tragic at the same time.

The wording that Tesla "can begin to augment their Minimum Business Operations this week in preparation for possible reopening as soon as next week" is nothing short of delusional. They are acting as if Tesla is not actively building cars right now while everyone (including their half-blind 98-year-old grandmother's) can see the sleek new cars churning out of the factory doors all day long.

The Alameda County government is still in the denial phase of its major bumbling of its handling of the COVID-19 crisis. This is tragic for everyone involved, especially those with threatened livelihoods and those in the high-risk groups. People will die, not because Elon opened the factory, but due to their stunning incompetence in handling this crisis. They need to take the bull by the horns but are literally incapable of even conceiving of what's necessary to move forward. It's stunningly embarrassing.
 
The County is trying to extricate themselves from this disaster of a position by pretending they are still directing the show! It's comical and tragic at the same time.

The wording that Tesla "can begin to augment their Minimum Business Operations this week in preparation for possible reopening as soon as next week" is nothing short of delusional. They are acting as if Tesla is not actively building cars right now while everyone (including their half-blind 98-year-old grandmother's) can see the sleek new cars churning out of the factory doors all day long.

The Alameda County government is still in the denial phase of its major bumbling of its handling of the COVID-19 crisis. This is tragic for everyone involved, especially those with threatened livelihoods and those in the high-risk groups. People will die, not because Elon opened the factory, but due to their stunning incompetence in handling this crisis. They need to take the bull by the horns but are literally incapable of even conceiving of what's necessary to move forward. It's stunningly embarrassing.

I was joking before but I actually think the county is going to send out a tweet on Monday saying "Congrats to Tesla who is open for production starting today! Collaboration YEAH!"
 
[sorry. pandemic junk in the investors thread. please skip]

this will prove to be completely false. only fools think there is some choice between the economy and public health here.
What? I can usually grasp what you are tying to get across but this is the opposite extreme of "open everything now".

There has to be a balance. You do understand that if we want to stop EVERYONE from catching a >COLD< (be it a deadly one to some) then every single human must sit at home. Construction workers, factory workers, mailmen, the maintenance guy at the nuclear plant, hospital personnel..... everyone.

Once the >COLD< is in the pandemic stage there is just no way to stop it. It must run it's path. Period. There is no vaccination and I have never heard of a vaccination being created for a cold in humans. Yes reduce risk with distancing in hot spots, now, then, and when they pop up but by your statement you are say shut everything down now because public health is more important than a nuclear plant staying under control.

There must be balance between every human sitting at home and everyone have an orgy. There are choices that can be made. When hospitals have capacity things should loosen with control valves. That is choice between the economy and public health. That is what is happening. Sometimes it takes a bit of force to make that happen but it is going to happen. When companies have to force the issue then the chances of them leaving for a location that has smarter politicians is likely.

Again. Sorry everyone for the pandemic interruption. Hopefully this conversation will move over to the appropriate thread now that Tesla has legally opened their factory.
 
Just to remind all of the value of analysts:

Yahoo Finance consensus says that A) the stock is overvalued and B) the performance outlook for the short-, mid- and long-term are positive.

???

View attachment 541305
Yahoo outlook is based on trend while valued is calculated based on PE ratio. Not saying TSLA is overvalued but you can totally have an overvalued company sustain a run-up over an extended period of time. In fact, the bullish trend jives well with the overvalued assessment (for any random company): maybe it was fairly valued before and it's now overvalued after a bull run. Yahoo outlook does not have any predictive ability.
 
If I was a GM,Ford, VW etc exec, I would be pissing in my pants now from fear as at how Elon masterminded the opening of Freemont. The relentness pursuit of the goal, at all levels, from twitter to Trump, from lawyers to governors, coupled with the utter and all-encompassing belief that the ONLY thing holding back Tesla from world domination in car sales (and other technologies) is production and production only and not demand.... I think this Freemont saga will open a lot of eyes at the OEMs, and they are finally seeing a cybertruck rushing at them in full speed, with nowhere to duck :)

Isn’t it kind of odd that these powerful OEMs supported by their governments via taxpayer dollars just laid down?

On second thought, they may not have had a choice because the dealerships they feed weren’t selling cars, so inventory didn’t need replenishing.

Ok. Never mind. Apparently I just had to talk that through out loud. Carry on.
 
While I agree that Spiegel is a despicable idiot I think the systemic problem was how much air time he received and how much we talked about him. E.g. Chanos lies, manipulates, etc. but he does it in a somewhat intelligent way and he plays with real money.

It staggers my imagination how Chanos' lies about Tesla, the very ones designed to slow Tesla down and that he hoped could cause them to fail, could be considered "intelligent" in light of the fact that we are all subject to the impacts of global warming. Including Chanos' grandchildren.