Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Green Pete]

Premarket $744
Terrible bloodbath
Edit : $758 3 min later
Edit $743 again

Thank you TSLA q-sader

 

[MC3OZ]

On yesterday’s earnings call management confirmed shanghai built model 3s are already cheaper to build than Fremont model 3 (and looks like will get significantly cheaper still in future);

Zachary J. Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. And on the manufacturing cost portion of the question, the cost of vehicles produced in Shanghai in Q1 is already lower than the cost to produce the Model 3 in Fremont, and there's still significant opportunity left to take costs out. So fixed cost absorption from higher production volumes, which are occurring in Q2 and will occur through the rest of the year were not fully localized on the supply chain yet. And so while a lot of the supply chain is localized, it's not complete, and there's additional opportunities there. And so we'll continue to bring the price down and expand margin -- costs down and expand margin even with this reduction in price that Elon mentioned on the standard range version of the vehicle.
​

So the question remains - why would Tesla choose to send cars from Fremont to international markets when the Shanghai produced car would be cheaper and provide more profit? (all else being equal) - once they have excess capacity in Shanghai of course.

Might take sometime to get excess capacity in Shanghai, but I think there is land near by the factory, that they could buy.

IMO for Asia Pacific including Australia and NZ shipping cars from China is very logical...

Berlin eventually making Model Y and Model 3 is very logical.

Fremont might be capped at 250K Model 3s per year + 250K Model Ys, they will make an additional amount of Model Ys at the new US factory.

So in the long run US factories might be making cars almost exclusively for the US and Canadian markets.

Model S/X and the Roadster would be exported out of the US...Semi and Cybertruck might go either way.. produced in the US or globally.

They key to all of this is the timing is right, Model Y is a mature 2nd generation mass produced car, Tesla has proven that can start up new factories efficiently. They are about to prove they can expand Shanghai efficiently.

#WaitingImpatientlyForBatteryDay

 

[Artful Dodger]

Premarket $744
Terrible bloodbath
Edit : $758 3 min later
Edit $743 again

... on 19,670 shares. Drama much?

 

[Runarbt]

... on 19,670 shares. Drama much?

This is shorts last push, premarket they can manage to move the stock some. With max pain at 785 - it will bounce back at open.

And.. this ER was good! so next week we will reach new highs.

 

[Unknown_Wizard]

Battery Day and next Giga (Tera) are going to be annouced soon.

As Elon said: third week of may, they think, is the right timing.

It is just about "timing the news".

 

[avoigt]

Usually after a ER call I post my assessment and conclusions here but all my commitments make it hard for me to find the time but let me say one thing, I don't believe I have ever heard and read such a great quarterly result.

I'll write an article about financials that will differ from all other financials analytics in many respects to shed some light on the bigger picture and give an understanding of my read.

Also, as @Papafox said correctly don't get distracted by the down move yesterday that is in my opinion a combination of profit taking, manipulation and FUD but those are all short lift incidences and we have some really bright news in front of us including Battery Day which is huge as well as GF Texas and at a later point we may see S&P inclusion which will be a game changer for many reasons. One of them is that if you offer Index funds you are rather careful to talk the stocks in them down.

Its not long ago that we had a many year long fight around the resistance level at $380 and now we talk more about $880 to even $969 while it's my strong conviction its just a question of time until we test that levels again. Every Analysts who has right now a SP target below 4 digit either was sleeping in the ER call or is a fraud or manipulator.

The amazing margin results have even surprised me as a long term bull and I believe this is just the beginning. Disappointing parts are with TE but just in some smaller areas and I am excited about Megapack as well as Solar Roof.

Let's all just visualize how numbers would have looked like without the CoVid crisis. Its incredible what Tesla has achieved.

Good days ahead.

If you want to know more about my thoughts watch out for my next articles and videos.

A Casting article is at Patreon right now and hopefully soon open to read at CleanTechnica.

Stay Long and Strong

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is shorts last push, premarket they can manage to move the stock some. With max pain at 785 - it will bounce back at open.

And.. this ER was good! so next week we will reach new highs.

Yup. Should be a nice buying opp. this morning. Rince. Repeat. That's how MMs roll.

Cheers!

 

[LN1_Casey]

Premarket $744
Terrible bloodbath
Edit : $758 3 min later
Edit $743 again

Let me know when it hits $340, I want to start lowering my cost average.

 

[FrankSG]

If Made-in-China Model 3 Is going to keep getting cheaper to produce, to the point it is significantly cheaper than model 3 from Fremont, then I’m wondering if the MiC 3 (and MiC Y once it enters production) becomes the model that serves more markets outside North America and Europe (actually the 3 could serve Europe as well for 2020/2021).

Tesla could then reallocate Fremont 3/Y capacity more heavily towards the (eventually) higher ASP/margin Y, while the MIC 3s earn bigger margins internationally and/or could be sold at cheaper prices for markets where price is a barrier to adoption.

(Totally selfish hope on my part so we get potentially cheaper models 3/Y units in New Zealand).

So the question remains - why would Tesla choose to send cars from Fremont to international markets when the Shanghai produced car would be cheaper and provide more profit? (all else being equal) - once they have excess capacity in Shanghai of course.

I made a post on this yesterday, but I think China demand for the M3 is going to be well in excess of the 65k/quarter capacity that Tesla is currently building out in Shanghai. I believe Tesla will need a 2nd Giga in China of at least the same size as Shanghai, and a total production capacity in China of ~100k before it'll be able to satisfy local demand. Anything beyond that, will of course make sense to export to APAC region.

 

[JBRR]

Research - Moody's

Moody has reviewed the rating. Notice that this isn't an announcement of an up/downgrade or intention to do any. Purely announcement that they have completed a review.

But given that Teslas credit scores reflect investment grade I would think it 75%+ likely that Tesla is getting upgraded soon.

 

[Chocochip]

I make all the best trades. No one has ever traded like me before. Tremendously beautiful trades.

You forgot to add that people call you up and say “Wow! That trade was perfect! How do you do it?”. But others cause volatility in the market by spreading fake rumours because they hate it when you’re winning and they want you to fail… such nasty people!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think China demand for the M3 is going to be well in excess of the 65k/quarter capacity that Tesla is currently building out in Shanghai

On the Conference Call, Elon said the goal is 4K Model 3s per week from Shanghai by midyear (presumably that means production fully ramped to that level by the end of Q2)...

...and that level is: 50k/quarter (200k/year, per the CC)

Cheers!

 

[MartinAustin]

Another insightful look at Tesla's recent battery patent and what it means

Just wanted to thank you for pointing us to this youtube channel. Wow... if what he is putting together is true, things are going to be amazing

 

[Mike Smith]

I don't know why anyone is paying these analysts. Rob Maurer is better than any of them and he provides it for free.

 

[Chocochip]

But you yourself are omniscient and can pass judgement on Elon and Fauci?

Ad hominem (Latin for "to the person"), short for argumentum ad hominem, is a term that is applied to several different types of arguments, most of which are fallacious. Typically it refers to a fallacious argumentative strategy whereby genuine discussion of the topic at hand is avoided by instead attacking the character, motive, or other attribute of the person making the argument, or persons associated with the argument, rather than attacking the substance of the argument itself. The most common form of this fallacy is "A makes a claim a, B asserts that A holds a property that is unwelcome, and hence B concludes that argument a is wrong".

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Research - Moody's

Moody has reviewed the rating. Notice that this isn't an announcement of an up/downgrade or intention to do any. Purely announcement that they have completed a review.

But given that Teslas credit scores reflect investment grade I would think it 75%+ likely that Tesla is getting upgraded soon.

Reading their rating considerations makes me sceptical they will upgrade soon (but I've been wrong before):

"Tesla's B3 corporate family rating reflects the progress the company has made in ramping up production of the Model 3, repaying significant debt maturities in 2019 and strengthening its liquidity position. However, the company's credit profile remains constrained by the challenges associated with establishing a sustainable operating and financial model within the highly competitive global automotive market. In addition, the widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak, deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit shock. A severe disruption in automotive demand due the coronavirus, combined with the possibility of a follow-on economic recession, will place additional pressure on Tesla."

 

[davecolene0606]

Research - Moody's

Moody has reviewed the rating. Notice that this isn't an announcement of an up/downgrade or intention to do any. Purely announcement that they have completed a review.

But given that Teslas credit scores reflect investment grade I would think it 75%+ likely that Tesla is getting upgraded soon.

Does this mean Tesla finally subscribed to Moody’s service?

Fire Away!
(It’s STILL the batteries, Stupid!)​

 

[Unpilot]

Moody's pay to play...meh.

You just have to love how this juggernaut that is Tesla is just smashing the living sugar out of so many sleeping old giant's.
Pearl clutching and hand wringing aint gunna stop dis beast.....roll baby roll.

 

[JBRR]

Reading their rating considerations makes me sceptical they will upgrade soon (but I've been wrong before):

"Tesla's B3 corporate family rating reflects the progress the company has made in ramping up production of the Model 3, repaying significant debt maturities in 2019 and strengthening its liquidity position. However, the company's credit profile remains constrained by the challenges associated with establishing a sustainable operating and financial model within the highly competitive global automotive market. In addition, the widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak, deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit shock. A severe disruption in automotive demand due the coronavirus, combined with the possibility of a follow-on economic recession, will place additional pressure on Tesla."

Missed this part - thank you.
Revising my 75% downwards

 

[HG Wells]

Allow maybe the wrong word here. Let me make an analogy: would you retweet from Tesla chart?

Of course I would !
He is the Baghdad Bob of Tesla.
You don't think he is serious do you ? /S