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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Agree, the return to normal will be a return to a new normal and the transition will be gradual. New models show if US lift restrictions completely May 4th, they could go back to current levels of affected/deaths by July. What is more likely to happen is a phased in approach. Industry first to keep the economy alive, then schools in September. Large spectator events like sporting, music concerts, theatres will be the last restrictions and I don't seeing those being lifted until January 2021. A new normal where the customary hand shakes are no longer, physical distancing still encouraged, limited gatherings, gloves and face coverings common when in public places, washing hands frequently, high risk members of our society (elderly, those with respirator problems, marginal health) taking additional precautions, sanitizing surfaces on a regular basis, enhanced methods of testing for the virus, enforced home solations for those tested positive, tracking of individuals affected to ensure compliance, and everyone working together for awareness and betterment of the whole to control the virus, until a vaccine is available for all.

The US May 4th start up is critical for the economy, and if it gets pushed out further Tesla will take a hit, however timing the start up is outside of our control (left up to the governing bodies and health agencies to decide which we put our trust in). Trying to time this startup is risky, because you want to be in TSLA when the green light is given. If May 4th great. If a little later, that's great to, when it happens. My prediction is Tesla will last a long longer than COVID-19.
I think even sporting events like baseball and movie theaters could be opened, but attendance would have be restricted and seating separation enforced. I’ve been to a lot of regular season ball games where it would be pretty easy to keep 2m separation. Movies too.
 
Moderators still roam this thread. Not to prevent OT content, that is now firmly everyone’s own responsibility. But attacking other members, even calling them trolls, for voicing dissenting opinions is not acceptable. We can only make good investment decisions if we hear from all sides, not if it is a one way street. So personal attacks on members (not being obvious troll accounts) for having a less rosy view of Tesla’s future, will meet zero tolerance. As some have already experienced these last few days.
 
If LA County is extending its shelter-in-place rule I'd imagine the Fremont plant will be closed through May 15 as well...

L.A. County stay-at-home order could last into summer; more social distancing essential, officials say
Tesla chose to close the factory on their own, not because of local county orders, which they have federal exemption from.
So if they want to reopen, they can do it anytime no matter whether Almeda county extend the stay at home order or not.
 
Tesla chose to close the factory on their own, not because of local county orders, which they have federal exemption from.
So if they want to reopen, they can do it anytime no matter whether Almeda county extend the stay at home order or not.
Assuming all their suppliers are able to operate also, which was a factor in the shutdown.
 
I can't believe that Tesla's hired enviromnental engineers would not have completed a hundred+ bore holes for soil samples on this site before they even purchased the land. Taking soil samples (2" to 3" in diameter to 10' depth or more) is standard practice and a regulatory requirement for all development projects to determine if there are an environmental conditions of the soil (i.e. Radon or Lead contamination) and also the structure of the soil and to determine the type of foundations to be used (slab on grade, piles (like GigaChina) or other). @Gillfoto, can you share where you are getting this information? Ontario and Quebec provicial governments, Canada, shut down Commercial construction projects (Residential and essential services Construction still open) to help prevent spread of COVID-19. Has Germany changed their positon from March 25th?
German construction continues through crisis
Here is the Electrek story he is referencing. It seems like it is based on a bad translation from a German story (I don't speak German but the English translation has obvious errors). Anyone have a better source?

Tesla Berlin Gigafactory stalls, reportedly has to revise foundation due to soil issue - Electrek
 
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Tesla chose to close the factory on their own, not because of local county orders, which they have federal exemption from.
So if they want to reopen, they can do it anytime no matter whether Almeda county extend the stay at home order or not.

I guess what I'm trying to say is the shutdown is probably going to last longer than May 4. I was wishfully hoping we'd have an earlier reopening of the economy.

Tesla could reopen sooner, but at what cost? They get enough bad press as it is; I can imagine the media frenzy blaming Tesla for further spreading the virus should they reopen before state/federal government gives the rest of the country the green light. Could be very bad PR.
 
To show my support, I will purchase $1 of TSLA for every ventilator Tesla manufactures.

That's awfully generous of you. You could get filthy rich if Tesla manufacturers and donates enough ventilators! ;)

I plan to purchase as much TSLA as I want, regardless of how many ventilators they donate. As a shareholder, they have my permission to donate as many ventilators as they see fit. :cool:
 
I like Cathy Woods' optimism about Tesla, but I think she is way too optimistic about when robotaxis will be a source of revenue.

I don't see how you can say this with a straight face. You must know that ARK Invest crunches the numbers they use to come up with their 5-year share price targets a number of different ways and that many of their share price targets are derived without applying any revenue from autonomy/robotaxi networks.

Did you know that?
 
I drove a model Y today. It was awesome! My brother in law picked it up this morning. He seems to have a sub 100 VIN, which I looked at several times to make sure I was not delusional. The fit and finish seemed perfect. I love the height, it feels more substantial then the Model 3. The ride feels much better then the early Model 3 as well. He got the performance loaded and it really pushes your face back when you punch it at a light.
The trunk is amazing, my son liked the idea of hosting a party with a car cooler front and back. Internally fit and finish were excellent. Borrowing from the 3 means the customer facing business is all honed by 100’s of thousands of Model 3’s. The ride seems quieter then a model 3, but I didn’t do a decibel test.
Bottom line, performance and production are perfect.
 
I don't see how you can say this with a straight face. You must know that ARK Invest crunches the numbers they use to come up with their 5-year share price targets a number of different ways and that many of their share price targets are derived without applying any revenue from autonomy/robotaxi networks.

Did you know that?

yes, all I said was that they are way too optimistic about when robotaxis will be available and that otherwise I like their optimism
 
Here is the Electrek story he is referencing. It seems like it is based on a bad translation from a German story (I don't speak German but the English translation has obvious errors). Anyone have a better source?

Tesla Berlin Gigafactory stalls, reportedly has to revise foundation due to soil issue - Electrek

I don't know if this is Electrek clickbait or they just don't understand the European permit processes. It's absolutely nonsense to think the foundations were planned without testing the soil. That's why bureaucracy is there: everything must be tested, evaluated, analyzed, and so on. So far Tesla has received three permits: clearing, leveling and foundations. At this time they are updating their foundation plan from the original one which was filed on Dec 20, 2019. According to some sources they are also updating their water usage plans (reducing them) related to main permit. These updates are pretty normal procedures. The main permit is coming in June.

It's common in many European countries to get building permit in phases. It's also common to update plans during the construction if reasons arise or plans change. My take is that they are building something heavier than originally planned. They need to update permit if they need heavier pile foundation for even a small part of the building. Just guessing, but could be similar to that small expansion next to original building of Giga Shanghai. Something that needs really heavy foundations.

There will be a public hearing regarding these changes, but it's a normal procedure and nothing to worry about. People forget this as quickly as they forgot the forest clearing stoppage.
 
Are you also a Bitcoin investor or want to become one? Cause this is where Cathie Wood lost me - to me her analysis of bitcoin and blockchain was just all buzzwords. I even started to reconsider my TSLA thesis and asked myself - these guys are betting on TSLA and on Bitcoin at the same time, do I want to be in the same group?

no bitcoin for me.....if I miss out, I am OK with that decision.
 
The development is on hold, Sand has been found in soil therefore requiring structure to have different foundation. Requires local government approval to proceed with alternative foundation.

In high school I worked as a lab assistant for a soils engineer, 70 years ago. Such testing was routine. Termination of the manager responsible for this omission advised?
 
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That's awfully generous of you. You could get filthy rich if Tesla manufacturers and donates enough ventilators! ;)

I plan to purchase as much TSLA as I want, regardless of how many ventilators they donate. As a shareholder, they have my permission to donate as many ventilators as they see fit. :cool:
@StealthP3D, I'm simply stating that I support Tesla to manufacturer ventilators, both in principle, and with my wallet. This in addition to my ongoing investments in Tesla and TSLA. Also, I would expect Tesla's manufacturing costs to be a fraction of the costs than that of GM and Phillips, where Tesla can manufacture at cost plus a small markup for purchase at reasonable prices around the World as needed to save lives.
 
I drove a model Y today. It was awesome! My brother in law picked it up this morning. He seems to have a sub 100 VIN, which I looked at several times to make sure I was not delusional. The fit and finish seemed perfect. I love the height, it feels more substantial then the Model 3. The ride feels much better then the early Model 3 as well. He got the performance loaded and it really pushes your face back when you punch it at a light.
The trunk is amazing, my son liked the idea of hosting a party with a car cooler front and back. Internally fit and finish were excellent. Borrowing from the 3 means the customer facing business is all honed by 100’s of thousands of Model 3’s. The ride seems quieter then a model 3, but I didn’t do a decibel test.
Bottom line, performance and production are perfect.

Great news. And remember, Elon said Cybertruck should be even better.

Tesla's "best product ever"
https://electrek.co/2019/10/23/tesla-cybertruck-pickup-elon-musk-best-product-ever/

"The product is better than people realize even. They don’t have enough information to realize the awesomeness of it. It’s just great."
Elon Musk on Tesla Cybertruck: It's better than people realize — there's more to it - Electrek

"Plaid Cybertruck is what I will drive"
Elon Musk on Twitter
 
I guess what I'm trying to say is the shutdown is probably going to last longer than May 4. I was wishfully hoping we'd have an earlier reopening of the economy.

Tesla could reopen sooner, but at what cost? They get enough bad press as it is; I can imagine the media frenzy blaming Tesla for further spreading the virus should they reopen before state/federal government gives the rest of the country the green light. Could be very bad PR.
@joh01652, Los Angeles County is lighlighted in red on the map below.
Freemont (just North of San Jose, CA) is 357mi. from LA County (similar distance is from Paris, France to Brussels, Belgium).
Giga Nevada (just East of Reno, Nevada) is 465 mi. from LA County (similar distance from Brussels, Belgium, across the Netherlands, to Hamburg, Germany).
Also of note is that LA County is most populous County in US, with >10 million citizens. Any high density areas will be more negatively affected from CV than less sparsely populated areas.
Tesla will follow all restrictions imposed by local, municipal, state and federal governments for their specific areas and type of operations. They will open as soon as they are allowed to, not one day sooner, nor one day later. And when they open, they will take extreme care for their workers, and go over and above any CV regulations, procedures and safety requirements set forth by governing bodies and health departments.

Screen Shot 2020-04-11 at 9.09.04 PM.png
 
Great news. And remember, Elon said Cybertruck should be even better.

Tesla's "best product ever"
https://electrek.co/2019/10/23/tesla-cybertruck-pickup-elon-musk-best-product-ever/

"The product is better than people realize even. They don’t have enough information to realize the awesomeness of it. It’s just great."
Elon Musk on Tesla Cybertruck: It's better than people realize — there's more to it - Electrek

"Plaid Cybertruck is what I will drive"
Elon Musk on Twitter

I'm intrigued by the Drive-train part of Battery and Drive-train investor Day.

Seem to me, there is something significant about Plaid Drive that we don't yet know...

Is it important for Tesla to have the fastest cars? Their brand image is partially formed by this, as is the brand image of many competitors.
And it isn't just raw speed, it is the combination, of speed, acceleration, braking, cornering, balance and control.

I'm not 100% sure but it seems a Plaid Cybertruck is different to a regular Tri-motor?
 
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