Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Quick progress at GF4. Not many trees left for phase 1. You can see at least one tree that has fencing around it, presumably for sleepy bats.

 

[HG Wells]

Think of all the unemployed lumber jacks those infernal machines have caused.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Curios how many share and at what price would you need TSLA to be at to retire?

I know every situation is different but for me I think a share price around 1,387.42 would work.
I have enough shares that at that price I could sell them all..(never would)... and pay the tax man and still have enough to invade certain island's and such.

$8,753.94 in 2027. But will re-evaluated then.

Don't need the money, and SP could be $13,130.91 in 2028...

Cheers!

 

[EnergyMax]

Screenshot_20200222-133851

• EnergyMax
• Feb 22, 2020

Amazing GigaBerlin progress posted an hour ago.

 

[davecolene0606]

Curios how many share and at what price would you need TSLA to be at to retire?

I know every situation is different but for me I think a share price around 1,387.42 would work.
I have enough shares that at that price I could sell them all..(never would)... and pay the tax man and still have enough to invade certain island's and such.

Just curious, what’s ur number? Range only cuz to me “island invasion” number exceeds like 20mil. Reading the book “The Number” and its really a good thought primer and makes ya think about things like: once I invade the island...

now what?

BTW My myopic view:
No debt, comfortable, 1 home (modest) kids outta college, retire 60: $4mil
No debt, comfortable, 2 homes (again modest) same as above: 6mil
Island invasion: 15mil as an entry level invasion. (Ask politely to visit then.... whaaamo!)

Fire Away!
(It’s the batteries, Stupid!)

 

[ZeApelido]

Think of all the unemployed lumber jacks those infernal machines have caused.

Dexter would not react well.

 

[hobbes]

Just found this - a Tesla delegation met privately with an official of the German federal department of traffic. Supposedly multiple topics, the only thing that was leaked was that they asked for an exemption of electric trucks (Tesla semi) from the rule that generally, big trucks cannot drive on Sundays. Will supposedly be considered. Would be a serious marketing advantage, seems like semi is coming for real..

I would guess they also talked about Auto Pilot limitations in Europe.

Vertrauliche Gespräche im Verkehrsministerium: Tesla will Sonntagsfahrverbot für Elektro-Lkw kippen

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

tsla gapped up HUGE again at the open +65 to $923 today.
....
Sold 2 tsla 200221P875 Put for credit of $1000 ($5.0x2)

Closed my 2 tsla 200221P875 Put .10 each for profit of $980
And
Sold 2 tsla 200228P850 Put for $15.80 each for credit of $3160

 

[Tslynk67]

Do you need margin for selling the puts?
How do you get out of a sold-put position? Does a buy of the exact same option cancel the previous sell?

A buy of an option indeed simply cancels a sell (and vice-versa), but if you sold a $200 strike put when the SP was $1000 it could be substantially more expensive as the price moves down.

 

[AudubonB]

Good weekend fun: Get Split History - All Stock Splits on one Site

Microsoft Corporation - MSFT - Get Stock Split History
Facebook Inc - FB - Get Stock Split History
Apple Inc. - AAPL - Get Stock Split History
Amazon.com, Inc. - AMZN - Get Stock Split History
Netflix, Inc. - NFLX - Get Stock Split History
Google Inc - GOOG - Get Stock Split History

Pah! That goes back only to 1976.

I was hoping to find material for those of us who are long term investors. As I've mentioned before, that XOM stock I unloaded at $102 had been in the family for generations. It would save me some legwork to find out just how few pennies per share its original price may have been ('tho haven't exact purchase decade any more, let alone date).

Regardless, that site showed XOM had split 32:1 since 1976. That gives an effective $3.37/sh base price (ie, if purchased 7/23/76) for Exxon.

 

[pz1975]

This works, until it doesn’t anymore. We are in a unique situation where selling far OTM calls that expire within 1-2 weeks can still provide a nice premium. That wasn’t the case when we were hovering between 250 and 380 for years. It’s only possible because IV spiked during the recent run up. If the stock price settles down or we end up in a trading range it will no longer work (the premium will no longer outweigh the risk). Enjoy it while it lasts.

Exactly. That’s why I’ve only been doing it for 1-2 weeks and at very small numbers (2 contracts max) once the big spike slowed down. And the ones I am selling are usually 40-75% OTM and less than 2 weeks (usually 1 week or less) away.

I normally just sell OTM puts but the IV was so high that the way OTM calls have been pretty lucrative to sell the last couple weeks. I’ll stop selling those once the IV comes down or the SP looks like it is spiking again.

 

[AudubonB]

I just thought it was interesting that Lycanthrope had a good friend ;-)

Maybe the operative word is "had"?

 

[Tslynk67]

Thanks. Hmm, thats not how Porsche usually acts but thanks or informing.

If they invite someone they always expect something in return even if that person does not know or is aware about that he actually is doing it. To invite someone because he is an early adopter would only make sense if they believe it could be an influencer at some point in time.

I know them to have supply issues with a variety of problems to solve but your post would almost point them to have a demand problem too which makes sense as the low range issue and bad efficiency may hold many back.

I'll keep in touch with him and report back.

 

[hobbes]

I have noticed that the coronavirus is not really a topic of discussion anymore om this board. I suspect that the WHO will declare COVID-2019 a pandemic next week, especially due to recent developments in Iran, SK and Italy. If this were to happen, does anyone have an idea if it would impact Tesla in any way?

I guess you mean the Tesla stock (TSLA) price? Operations wouldn´t be affected just by a declaration IMHO.

Tesla operations have been impacted by prolonged Chinese New Year holiday (lost about a week of production in GF3) and might be impacted if suppliers have problems, but recent videos showed lots of new Model 3 coming out of Shanghai, so seems to be o.k. at the moment.

 

[steak&chicken]

I am not sure what tax implications your particular situation may have, but you can open an IB account, and when it is time to transfer your positions, you can for a few weeks create a synthetic stock holding using options. For example for every 100 shares you own, buy a 700 call and sell a 1100 call. You can then sell your shares. Transfer your cash and positions.

The options will duplicate exactly the behavior of 100 shares (up to $1100 per share) and cost you 25% of the value of the shares.

Once the transfer is completed, you can decide what sort of margin position you wish to have.

Other than tax considerations, everything else can be handled relatively easily.

I don't want to needlessly sell mainly because of taxes. The short term gain taxes I would pay would far outweigh any margin interest savings I would get from changing brokers. I've been financing the monthly margin I pay by selling OTM covered calls. Because of the insane Tesla volatility, selling weekly covered calls and selling naked puts can be very lucrative and more than cover the 8-9% margin interest I pay and then some.

I started this account with about $100,000. I was treading water until I discovered Tesla. I first bought 50 shares of TSLA in April 2018 after the stock dropped from Model 3 production problems. I figured any manufacturing problems could eventually be solved and the market had overreacted. The stock quickly rebounded and shot back up to around $300+ range and I was hooked. I bought some more in the $300 range and started really learning about Elon and Tesla. I bought and read the book about Elon and came away very impressed with him. Then I listened to all the earnings conference calls, product reveals, and any interview of Elon I could find on the internet and Youtube. I spent crazy amount of time reading and watching everything on Elon and Tesla. The more I researched and learned, the more I became convinced Elon was the real deal and he and Tesla was going to change the world. Then his take private tweet happened.

When I saw his take private tweet, I panicked and went full margin to buy as many TSLA shares as my TD account allowed. I think my account peaked at around $150k before the climbing back down once people started to question the funding secured story. Then I went through some painful months with Elon with him taking a puff of weed on Joe Rogan podcast and then later SEC lawsuit. That was painful time for me being on full margin but I'm sure it was even more painful for Elon. I traded around constant margin calls and survived. And when Tesla made surprise profit 3rd quarter of 2018, I become whole again and reached around $150k again in December 2018. I could've sold all my margin position in December 2018 but I got greedy and thought Tesla had finally turned the corner. I didn't want to sell something I thought could easily be 10x or more in the next 5-10 years. So I held thinking 2019 was going to be awesome with the Model Y introduction and possible S&P 500 later in 2019. Then Q1 2019 happened. And I almost went from $150k to $0.

I was still on full margin in April 2019, and I started getting margin calls almost everyday. April 2019 to June 2019 was like bad nightmare. I sold and traded my TSLA position to save my account. I didn't think Tesla would go from $376 in December 2018 to $178 in June 3, 2019. I think I ended putting in around extra $40k into the account so I wouldn't lose all my TSLA shares. On June 3, 2019, my account was worth around $45k but $40k was new money I added to save the account. Only about $5k of the original $100k remained. But even during this darkest of time, I didn't lose faith in Elon and Tesla. I had two other accounts so I bought TSLA in those accounts. I also bought TSLA for my mom and my sister's IRA accounts. I think I got them in at around $192 or so. I told them to never sell and they're real happy with me today as their IRA accounts have grown to levels they didn't even dreamed of.

I started lurking on this forum and thread around June 2019 I think. The awesome members and posters helped me navigate that difficult period of my life and helped me keep my faith in Elon and Tesla. I bounced back strongly after the surprise Q3 2019 earnings and kept my foot on the metal by continuing to margin to the max. I was so aggressive that I was sometimes getting margin calls even as TSLA stock price was going up if we had one or two down days. But I had a sense of extreme urgency. I felt like I had to acquire as many TSLA shares while the price was still affordable. And I figured the margin debt would become smaller part of the portfolio if price of TSLA increased. So I kept increasing my leverage and pretty much kept 1:1 ratio of equity and margin debt. Because TSLA is concentrated position for me, I can't get the normal 4x margin.

I'm now in better place, and I'm no longer on full margin. I own 1,300 shares of TSLA and one Jan '21 $300 call and one Jan '21 $420 call. I still have $270k of margin debt, but I feel that's pretty manageable. I sell weekly OTM covered calls to cover the margin interest I pay each month. But I don't sell covered calls if I think TSLA is about to move up. I've been caught and had to buyback sold calls at huge loss. Then I feel like I've been run over by steamroller while trying to pickup pennies in front of it.

I took out the $40k lifeline money I added back in June 2018 and gave that back to my wife. That was her money, and I'm very grateful she gave me the money in my time of need. She's been awesome throughout this whole process. When I asked her the other day what would happen if something like June 2019 happened again, and she said we started with $100k on this account so we would just be back to where we started. She said we were fine then and we would be fine again. I love my wife.

Here's picture of my account today.

You can see the low on June 3, 2019 at $44,857. That was with $40k new money added. So the real balance was like $4,857. That was crazy time and really tested my resolve. It's true, what doesn't kill you makes you stronger.

Here's all time chart of the account. You can see the account had around $100k and then the graph lines going all up and down after around July 2018. I think that was around the time of the funding secured tweet and I first went full margin. My daily volatility has been insane since.

 

[Curt Renz]

Quick progress at GF4. Not many trees left for phase 1. You can see at least one tree that has fencing around it, presumably for sleepy bats.

One must wonder how much additional revenue Tesla can get from selling the logs?

 

[Artful Dodger]

"EVs: On the Brink of Change" - Full Show | Bloomberg Markets and Finance

 

[chrsk]

I have 40 k calls that I bought during the dip at 880 on friday. They are tesla 900 strike price for Feb 28. Once I get to 100 k I'm going to buy a 100 tesla shares are not look at it for 10 years

Besides having the stocks I had the same idea as you. Now I’m questioning if it might be a good idea to sell some of them. Have a feeling I’ll be able to buy them back in the 500-600 range within the next year.

Worried that there is a lot of week longs and day traders that at some point will pull out at the same time, causing a significant drop...

 

[lascavarian]

It would probably upset the HOA.

I think as long as it is garaged it would be ok

 

[oldTAVguy]

"EVs: On the Brink of Change" - Full Show | Bloomberg Markets and Finance

Same old rot from Bloomberg, better to spend time sleeping.