Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

My understanding was they are not going to turn it on for about another year of shadow mode. Once they do, people can use it the same way they use AP today, with supervision, and after a certain number of those miles/kilometers regulators will likely allow full FSD.

I always considered the "feature complete" designation as Tesla internally being ready with all big features of the puzzle, if you will, like highway driving, city driving, traffic signs and lights, road markings, navigation integration, obstacle detection etc, however they have decided to slice it. Then they can run it in shadow mode and refine it for about a year.

My thinking is similar.

On feature complete, the way I think about it is it's sort of like a home builder getting a full box of tools. Before you go build the house, you need the box of tools. Possession of the box of tools doesn't mean you have a house yet. Or even that you're close.

But if you don't have the box of tools, you're not going to get a house.

 

[Causalien]

Just a quick thanks for those who contributed to opining on my abnormal options situation.

Long story short, bought meme calls, 450C Jan17 when SP was ~330. Like $1,000 or so. Was hoping SP flirted with 380 and I could 2-5x.

Obviously they ballooned during the run (29x).

Considered all possibilities, elected to shave off 1/3 of the position and buy FSD for my M3 (and it’s capital gains cost).

Still rocking the remaining - but de-risked slightly and pushed a few thousands to much longer term.

Overall, still have half of my 450C position.

Hell - it was $1,000 I was hoping to catch a buzz on and turn into $3,000, not $30,000.

Won’t regret a sustained run and possible loss of a much larger amount of money - between IV crush, theta decay, and geopolitical uncertainty, I still have a very very sizable (for me) high risk reward position, but also my car will see stoplights.

And had to toss $1,000 into March OTM Boeing Puts because I can’t wait to see their financials, hehe.

I'd sell those before new years. The decay speed to jan 17 will increase very fast.

I'd keep writing cash secured puts againat the cash you get. Or buy into stock.

But it's just me. I am not a 20 someting trying to yolo with risky bet.

 

[MC3OZ]

Why do you think it is as low as 5%. Elon is saying they are pretty much feature complete and end of 2020 will be unsupervised driving. This sounds more like 99% to me. It is a mistake to buy into the 'don't trust Elon' FUD, or that he is bad at predicting timelines. The historical over-prediction of FSD I put down to being further away from the goal and also having a 2 year setback with bringing it in-house from MobilEye. I have recalibrated my Elon to reality estimates and its not so dissimilar - maybe 6 months - 1 year later. But when he says it is possible, that they are way ahead of everyone else, that lidar is a crutch etc, I totally believe him. He is in a better position than almost anyone to know. A big advantage to investing in Tesla is Elon and his vision/engineering/execution. He has a track record of delivering amazing new tech at super cheap prices. He has already proven trustworthy give or take a year or so on delivery timelines.

People forget Elon designed a docking LIDAR for SpaceX, so he knows how LIDAR works...

And it is a reasonable bet that Elon, Karparthy and the rest of the team know more about what is actually required for FSD than we do. Most of them are professionals working full-time in this area..

So all that can go wrong IMO is:-
1. Someone else is first, IMO no big deal anyway... that will not stop Tesla arriving soon after with a lower cost basis.
2. They need more development of the NN, more training and perhaps even HW4....Again, except for HW4, not a big issue.
3. They need additional sensors, perhaps even LIDAR - Say 1% chance
4. The need to work out how to keep sensors clean - This may take time, but I expect that there are ways to handle this. IMO Robo-taxi's need to be cleaned after every shift, maintenance of sensors can be part of that regime...

3. Is the only significant risk and it isn't very likely, it also means Elon is wrong about LIDAR, or some other aspect, very unlikely..

It is hard to put a time-frame on it, but add 6-12 months to Elon's estimate is my best guess.....

It is also true that this is a solution that generally shows continuous improvement, and that improvement doesn't stop when they hit some arbitrary level of "feature complete" or even "regulatory approval", as far as I can tell it will keep improving for perhaps decades.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Dude it is ALL just semantics and perspective. "NEVER buy them again near an ath" is just your ptsd talking. Just because we are technically at an ATH now does not mean the stock can't jump to 1000 by February. Actually the price action is extremely bullish and some traders wait for moves like this to buy. You gotta go with your gut and wisdom but hard rules such as the ones you have outlined are useless and counterproductive. I am not trying to be a dickhead I just really think your approach is not well founded.

Well, you did it without trying...
@rdalcanto's advice is one of the best I've seen on these forums

 

[kengchang]

I'd sell those before new years. The decay speed to jan 17 will increase very fast.

I'd keep writing cash secured puts againat the cash you get. Or buy into stock.

But it's just me. I am not a 20 someting trying to yolo with risky bet.

Should at least wait for the P&D report, at least that's what I am doing with the Jan Calls

 

[SpaceCash]

Well, you did it without trying...
@rdalcanto's advice is one of the best I've seen on these forums

Hyuck hyuck hyuck ok man go ahead and DON'T buy calls right now, and you and I can compare notes next christmas

 

[mongo]

The text for the remaining Autopilot features is:



You don't think the "recognize" portion is worth anything?

You could break that up into:

• 10% Recognize traffic lights and stops signs.
• 30% Respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
• 60% Automatic driving on city streets.

Of course they could probably break that up into even smaller buckets. (And there is still the "Reverse" Smart Summon, or self-parking, feature that they have to release.)

That is a linked requirement pair, you can't have respond without recognize, and you can't have a feature without respond. So I'd also say 0% revenue recognition due to no driving behavior functionality.

 

[AlMc]

Well, you did it without trying...
@rdalcanto's advice is one of the best I've seen on these forums

Hyuck hyuck hyuck ok man go ahead and DON'T buy calls right now, and you and I can compare notes next christmas

We all have a different set of circumstances and comfort level in the risk/reward level investing in a company's stock and leveraging. It worked well for me in 2013/not so during LBOTC........I do not give investment advice. I do say what I do at times BUT I do not know enough about other TMC member's situations to suggest what is right for them.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Hyuck hyuck hyuck ok man go ahead and DON'T buy calls right now, and you and I can compare notes next christmas

I'm holding both of you to this. Win or lose, one of you is going to come clean and admit they were wrong next Christmas, got it?

 

[BenPrice]

Should at least wait for the P&D report, at least that's what I am doing with the Jan Calls

Not advice, but my decision making process.

Literally yesterday my full belief was hold until Jan 3. I said as much here.

But I’m concerned with RSI > 80 and I’m extremely concerned with the gigantic decay and IV cliff that will approach/exists but isn’t felt during a 8 day rally. I feel a downturn will hit like a TON of bricks.

I personally want to see the action Thursday at open as today we closed above both 420 and 425 for the first time. I feel the buying pressure today was to push us to this point.

I want to see what those closing numbers do to the short positions. I think it’s likely we see 2%+ on Thursday by 10am.

I personally believe Thursday may be the last substantial movement day of this period of trading due to RSI which may already have pushed us down if not for covering/short stop loss.

Only wildcard left is if a new accumulator is revealed.

That’s just my take on Jan calls.

 

[Steve m]

That gave me a vision of a possible future...
Adam Jonas, Jim Chanos, Mark Spiegel, and Lynette Lopez form a lounge act “Jonas and the Shorts” after the Tesla SP hits $10k. They sing lamentations and off-key blues in third rate casinos to help supplement their rent.

This is just one of many possible futures. There’s still time to change your ways!

Why do you hate people in bars?

 

[MP3Mike]

This latest update includes more than we have heard: Improvements to the Adaptive Suspension system in the Raven S&X and a new comfort mode that people seem to love.

Screenshot of the new Adaptive Suspension Damping AUTO mode, on version 2019.40.50.1.

Just like Tesla to keep making things better for free.​

 

[M3Rider]

Shorts are hanging tough. So the buying pressure is all real buyers, not covering shorts? Who has been buying all these shares the past month?

Shorts have started campaign of blocking everybody who's happy about TSLA SP
$TSLAQ GRIM REAPER on Twitter
Who's subscribing to their block list, haven't they got enough for their blindness?

As far as who's buying, I don't see why it can't be TRowe Price grabbing 15m shares.
They quit when Tesla was having ramping problems, now the problems are sorted, so the investment is solid.

My understanding was they are not going to turn it on for about another year of shadow mode. Once they do, people can use it the same way they use AP today, with supervision, and after a certain number of those miles/kilometers regulators will likely allow full FSD.

I always considered the "feature complete" designation as Tesla internally being ready with all big features of the puzzle, if you will, like highway driving, city driving, traffic signs and lights, road markings, navigation integration, obstacle detection etc, however they have decided to slice it. Then they can run it in shadow mode and refine it for about a year.

I'm somewhat lazy to go dig up Elon's statements on this, but pretty sure it was supervised FSD during 2020 and then at the EOY they start seeking approvals. They can't do the latter if the cars were in the shadow mode all the time and didn't do any actual driving - they'd have nothing to show to regulators.

Well, you did it without trying...
@rdalcanto's advice is one of the best I've seen on these forums

@StealthP3D says we're in a bull run. If so, every day can be ATH and that doesn't mean SP won't go up again.
Waiting for lows in this scenario to load up may not be the best bet. Not saying a pullback is impossible or won't happen, more like we have two possibilities:
1. That pullback may happen and bring us to SP below today.
2. That the run will continue and the next pullback will bring us to the lowest SP that is above today's SP, i.e. waiting for a pullback may not be the best decision.

Lets say it's 50/50. So, the statement "Never buy ATH" is not absolute truth.

 

[humbaba]

This latest update includes more than we have heard: Improvements to the Adaptive Suspension system in the Raven S&X and a new comfort mode that people seem to love.

Just like Tesla to keep making things better for free.​

I particularly like the "save video when honking horn" option. An obvious one and immediately turned on.

 

[Compton]

Smart Summon was only recognized in the USA, it is available now in China and Europe so those two regions would count in Q4

In Europe the summoning distance is limited to 6 meters due to EU rules/recommendations. However, no one in my local Facebook group has been able to move the car anything but straight ahead and straight back. So it's available in theory but not in practice, at least until EU loosens their policy on autonomous cars.

 

[kengchang]

In Europe the summoning distance is limited to 6 meters due to EU rules/recommendations. However, no one in my local Facebook group has been able to move the car anything but straight ahead and straight back. So it's available in theory but not in practice, at least until EU loosens their policy on autonomous cars.

That sounds like a bug IMO

 

[defc0n]

Shorts have started campaign of blocking everybody who's happy about TSLA SP
$TSLAQ GRIM REAPER on Twitter
Who's subscribing to their block list, haven't they got enough for their blindness?

As far as who's buying, I don't see why it can't be TRowe Price grabbing 15m shares.
They quit when Tesla was having ramping problems, now the problems are sorted, so the investment is solid.



I'm somewhat lazy to go dig up Elon's statements on this, but pretty sure it was supervised FSD during 2020 and then at the EOY they start seeking approvals. They can't do the latter if the cars were in the shadow mode all the time and didn't do any actual driving - they'd have nothing to show to regulators.


@StealthP3D says we're in a bull run. If so, every day can be ATH and that doesn't mean SP won't go up again.
Waiting for lows in this scenario to load up may not be the best bet. Not saying a pullback is impossible or won't happen, more like we have two possibilities:
1. That pullback may happen and bring us to SP below today.
2. That the run will continue and the next pullback will bring us to the lowest SP that is above today's SP, i.e. waiting for a pullback may not be the best decision.

Lets say it's 50/50. So, the statement "Never buy ATH" is not absolute truth.

my belief was $380 and $420 were possible tops. I got careful near those price points. I’m of the opinion the sky has opened up again.

good luck all!

 

[Compton]

That sounds like a bug IMO

The 6 meter rule has been in place as since the beginning. In practice it appears to be less than that. So no, that isn't a bug.

Not being able to manoeuver around anything probably is.

 

[kelly]

I hope not. We need more EVs

I live in North Phoenix. Perhaps next year I will occasionally drive out and see what I can see with Lucid's construction progress.

I've driven out there twice. First time on 11/8/2019 and the second on 12/22/2019. They are definitely making some progress. The site seems huge to me. Here are some photos I took and posted in the Lucid Air Base Price $52500 thread: 12/22/2019 visit

 

[Unpilot]

Merry Christmas my TMC friends.

I hope I get to have a drink with all of you on Krugerrand's island.