Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

An additional lighting load of a few dozen watts makes nearly zero difference in vehicle range. Yes, it adds up, but not enough to make a noticeable impact. The energy required to maintain highway speeds can be 20 - 40 kW, while the lighting load is maybe 200 - 400 watts ... a 100x difference.

What makes a "noticeable" impact or difference will vary by the situation. A "100x difference" would imply the lighting load is responsible for a 3.2 mile reduction in range in a Model 3. That might not be significant to most people but it certainly would be if events conspired against you and you found yourself with a battery approaching empty while still 2-3 miles from a Supercharger!

I've talked to self-identified American patriots who swear the American flags they fly 24/7 from the windows of their car doesn't impact their MPG "significantly". But the US consumes 142 Billion gallons of gasoline annually. Let's assume the flag drops the mileage from 26.32 mpg to 26.30 mpg. That's a drop of 0.08%. The actual impact is probably a lot higher but let's be conservative. If everyone flew the flag from their gas-burning vehicle, that would amount to 113.6 million gallons annually. Just in the U.S. Just for every gas car to display an American flag. How patriotic is that?

The point is, I think people get carried away with the kind of thinking that a certain thing is "insignificant". Yes, there will always be waste. But we don't need to create extra waste unless we get something back for it. Because a little here and a little there and pretty soon it's significant.

Using the Model 3 LR RWD as an example:

I've found that if I drive relatively steady-state on the highway in mild weather of 50-80F (no heater or heavy A/C loads) and no strong winds I get the 325 miles of rated range at about 70 mph. This is with the normal lights on.

If the battery pack is 75 kWh that translates to 231 Wh/mile. Or 16.2 kW necessary to maintain 70 mph with normal lights on. If the lights really do amount to a load of 200-400 watts, that translates to 1.2% to 2.5% of the total load at 70 mph steady state. The lighting load as a percent of total energy used would be much higher in normal city driving. Personally, I think 200w-400w over-estimates the lighting load but I haven't attempted to calculate it, I'm just using your figures.

 

[jerry33]

LOL ppl are still driving unbelted? I don't get it. It's 2019. Do we still think it looks cooler? Or is there some other reason.

There are several camps. One is still the my friend's mother's, sister's, uncle's friend was in an accident and walked away because he wasn't wearing a seat belt. Another is "We're only going a couple of miles, not worth it". A third is the shoulder strap is choking me (This one is really relevant to Tesla). But I think the most common is that most people just don't think "seat belt first" when you get into the car and then get distracted.

 

[Causalien]

There are several camps. One is still the my friend's mother's, sister's, uncle's friend was in an accident and walked away because he wasn't wearing a seat belt. .

Can't imagine any scenario where it is true. Maybe if they flew out the window and landed on their feet in a somersault motion while the car skid into a canyon.

 

[kbM3]

Tesla does own the solar systems that they rent. Tesla sells the electricity to the homeowner.

Tesla sells the electricity? So does the homeowner gets 1 consolidated bill from Tesla, or do they get 1 bill from the utility for their grid electricity and another bill from Tesla for their solar generated electricity?

That’s not my understanding. I thought the customer just paid Tesla a fixed rental fee, regardless of how much electricity the panels generate. I.e. it is merely a renting of panels, vs. a purchase of electricity.

 

[Beltsbear]

What makes a "noticeable" impact or difference will vary by the situation. A "100x difference" would imply the lighting load is responsible for a 3.2 mile reduction in range in a Model 3. That might not be significant to most people but it certainly would be if events conspired against you and you found yourself with a battery approaching empty while still 2-3 miles from a Supercharger!

I've talked to self-identified American patriots who swear the American flags they fly 24/7 from the windows of their car doesn't impact their MPG "significantly". But the US consumes 142 Billion gallons of gasoline annually. Let's assume the flag drops the mileage from 26.32 mpg to 26.30 mpg. That's a drop of 0.08%. The actual impact is probably a lot higher but let's be conservative. If everyone flew the flag from their gas-burning vehicle, that would amount to 113.6 million gallons annually. Just in the U.S. Just for every gas car to display an American flag. How patriotic is that?

The point is, I think people get carried away with the kind of thinking that a certain thing is "insignificant". Yes, there will always be waste. But we don't need to create extra waste unless we get something back for it. Because a little here and a little there and pretty soon it's significant.

Using the Model 3 LR RWD as an example:

I've found that if I drive relatively steady-state on the highway in mild weather of 50-80F (no heater or heavy A/C loads) and no strong winds I get the 325 miles of rated range at about 70 mph. This is with the normal lights on.

If the battery pack is 75 kWh that translates to 231 Wh/mile. Or 16.2 kW necessary to maintain 70 mph with normal lights on. If the lights really do amount to a load of 200-400 watts, that translates to 1.2% to 2.5% of the total load at 70 mph steady state. The lighting load as a percent of total energy used would be much higher in normal city driving. Personally, I think 200w-400w over-estimates the lighting load but I haven't attempted to calculate it, I'm just using your figures.

Led headlights are around 30w each. The car computer uses far more.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Can't imagine any scenario where it is true. Maybe if they flew out the window and landed on their feet in a somersault motion while the car skid into a canyon.

Going into water or catching on fire are the main ones I can think of. The former is more of a guess, since you’re just assuming you can’t unbuckle it in time. The latter could happen, if you quickly exit the car and then the whole thing explodes immediately.

 

[jerry33]

Can't imagine any scenario where it is true. Maybe if they flew out the window and landed on their feet in a somersault motion while the car skid into a canyon.

Just because it's not true, doesn't mean people don't believe it. I've never heard a first hand account either.

 

[Lessmog]

There are several camps. One is still the my friend's mother's, sister's, uncle's friend was in an accident and walked away because he wasn't wearing a seat belt. Another is "We're only going a couple of miles, not worth it". A third is the shoulder strap is choking me (This one is really relevant to Tesla). But I think the most common is that most people just don't think "seat belt first" when you get into the car and then get distracted.

Can't imagine any scenario where it is true. Maybe if they flew out the window and landed on their feet in a somersault motion while the car skid into a canyon.

Going into water or catching on fire are the main ones I can think of. The former is more of a guess, since you’re just assuming you can’t unbuckle it in time. The latter could happen, if you quickly exit the car and then the whole thing explodes immediately.

Just because it's not true, doesn't mean people don't believe it. I've never heard a first hand account either.

My suspicion is that the populatoin of survivors to tell their story is SMOL.

ED: Oh yes, Ed K. But he died too.

 

[Ratanpara]

Fascinating discussion.

 

[Lessmog]

Fascinating discussion.

Yep. But long, 80'. Took me a while to make time to watch it. But good. Not all new, to us.

 

[jerry33]

My suspicion is that the populatoin of survivors to tell their story is SMOL.

ED: Oh yes, Ed K. But he died too.

The closest call that happened to me was when I was stopped at a railroad crossing and the sign was flashing. A drunk driver hit me from behind and pushed the car into the railroad tracks. I was really lucky in that it was one of those false alarms and no train was coming, but I could see someone getting so flustered that they couldn't unbuckle the seat belt. However, had a train been coming that probably wouldn't have made a whit of difference. (FYI: The policeman at the scene didn't think the person was drunk enough to give a ticket to so the driver got off scott free. This was a very long time ago).

 

[Lessmog]

The closest call that happened to me was when I was stopped at a railroad crossing and the sign was flashing. A drunk driver hit me from behind and pushed the car into the railroad tracks. I was really lucky in that it was one of those false alarms and no train was coming, but I could see someone getting so flustered that they couldn't unbuckle the seat belt. However, had a train been coming that probably wouldn't have made a whit of difference. (FYI: The policeman at the scene didn't think the person was drunk enough to give a ticket to so the driver got off scott free. This was a very long time ago).

Arrgh! Where is that furiousity smiley (growley?) when you need it.
Makes me wonder how incapacitated the policeman was. As well as Sen. Ed of course; took him almost two days to show up passable after the fatal accident.

 

[JRP3]

Can't imagine any scenario where it is true. Maybe if they flew out the window and landed on their feet in a somersault motion while the car skid into a canyon.

I sort of did this once, on a motorcycle. A car did a left turn in front of me, I hit the side of the car in the rear, flipped over the trunk, and landed on my feet and ran it out. Luckily in the city under 30mph.

 

[Lessmog]

I sort of did this once, on a motorcycle. A car did a left turn in front of me, I hit the side of the car in the rear, flipped over the trunk, and landed on my feet and ran it out. Luckily in the city under 30mph.

No seat belt then?

 

[Lessmog]

No seat belt then?

On the off-topic of X-mas stories:
About 200 years ago, my elder (!) brother got swept off his motorbike by a meeting tractor pulling a load of X-mas trees and literally came to a stop by the seat of his pants. Not much left of those afterwards, he said.

 

[Mader Levap]

LOL ppl are still driving unbelted? I don't get it. It's 2019. Do we still think it looks cooler? Or is there some other reason.

Suicidal laziness.

 

[madodel]

I sort of did this once, on a motorcycle. A car did a left turn in front of me, I hit the side of the car in the rear, flipped over the trunk, and landed on my feet and ran it out. Luckily in the city under 30mph.

Very impressive. Was there a video of this feat? Do you do other motorcycle stunts as well?

 

[KarenRei]

not to be a negative Nancy but I didn’t really see any chance of this making it past both the senate and trump ?

The president doesn't have line-item veto. These sort of things get bundled into spending bills.

There's supposedly a fair degree of bipartisan support for it. And of course you never know how horse trading will go. It's far from certain. But Marketwatch is talking up the possibility of it going through.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

One is still the my friend's mother's, sister's, uncle's friend was in an accident and walked away because he wasn't wearing a seat belt.

That’s what I always think of when people have an excuse for not wearing a seatbelt. I’ve heard quite a few people say stuff like that. I’m sure there is always that rare case, but statistically you’re better off not flying through the windshield.

 

[printf42]

I used to check $TSLAQ on Twitter to stress test my thesis.
But it’s getting unbearable recently.

• Half of the top list are bulls mocking Qs, seriously what are you guys doing there?
• One post saying CT is fake because rear suspension doesn’t have any travel. I remember in another TSLAQ article it’s claiming the prototype is in no way road legal because it has too much body roll when making a turn. Could they make up a mind?
• Another saying Unicorn guy is a “brilliant forensic accountant”, what?
• Another shows empty superchargers. I believe the official message is superchargers are useless because there are queues 24x7 all year round? I have to go great lengths to check whether the guy is actually a bull.

That’s it, now I need to take a shower.