Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

I suspect that a large part of the TESLAQ shorting crowd is also short BYND (also a company that wants to improve the world and has - in their eyes - a valuation that is too high). So I’m surprised that today’s BYND ‘short squeeze’ (+12%) is not forcing some of them to close their Tesla short positions, to pay for their BYND margin calls. Or are we dealing with the deep pockets of the meat industry?

 

[ReflexFunds]

Some updates to GF3 timeline in an article about the Shanghai Lingang industrial area.
Looks like stamping, welding, assembly and sample production in September. Paint shop, production license and sales license qualification in November and mass production in December.
特斯拉上海超级工厂力争12月份实现一期部分投产 Via Google Translate

The Shanghai Stock Exchange reporter learned from the sources that at present, the Tesla Shanghai Super Factory Project (Phase I) has basically completed the structural capping of the main plant. At the end of September, the project will complete the three process workshops of stamping, welding and final assembly and the sample car off the assembly line. In November, the coating process, production license, and sales license qualification were completed. Strive to achieve partial production in the first phase in December.

 

[MP3Mike]

mass production in December.

"Mass production"? Or "partial production" like the translation says? I give mass production in December a probability of 0.1%.

 

[ReflexFunds]

"Mass production"? Or "partial production" like the translation says? I give mass production in December a probability of 0.1%.

My read is volume production of cars approved for sale to customers using the final mass production process (no hand painting etc). What weekly production rate they get to in December I have no idea.

I presume this will be using Powertrain and cell imports from GF1 to begin with. Packs could be manufactured locally from the start given they have sent the old LR pack/module lines from GF1 to China.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

"Mass production"? Or "partial production" like the translation says? I give mass production in December a probability of 0.1%.

What do you consider to be ‘mass production’?

 

[JusRelax]

Volvo recalls more than 500,000 cars worldwide over fire risk

something something Tesla battery fires my arse.....

 

[kengchang]

"Mass production"? Or "partial production" like the translation says? I give mass production in December a probability of 0.1%.

力争12月份实现一期部分投产 -> Will try to make phase one partial production in December

 

[mrmage]

I suspect that a large part of the TESLAQ shorting crowd is also short BYND (also a company that wants to improve the world and has - in their eyes - a valuation that is too high). So I’m surprised that today’s BYND ‘short squeeze’ (+12%) is not forcing some of them to close their Tesla short positions, to pay for their BYND margin calls. Or are we dealing with the deep pockets of the meat industry?

I was wondering the same, but ultimately didn't see a correlation. Someone involved in oil doesn't mean they're in meat production. And unlike Tesla which dominates in EV, Beyond has Impossible and other competitors without the moat or market share that Tesla has.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Some updates to GF3 timeline in an article about the Shanghai Lingang industrial area.
Looks like stamping, welding, assembly and sample production in September. Paint shop, production license and sales license qualification in November and mass production in December.
特斯拉上海超级工厂力争12月份实现一期部分投产 Via Google Translate

I don't want to speak too soon, but just a reminder of the GF3 timeline:

• Apr-2018 Removal of China 50% JV cap
• Jul-2018 Deal to build in Shanghai
  
• August-2018 Tesla shareholder letter - "In July, we announced our plan to build a wholly Tesla-owned Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai – our first Gigafactory outside the US. We are excited about this opportunity, as China is by far the largest EV market in the world and Chinese support for electric vehicles has been exceptionally strong. Initial capacity is expected to be roughly 250,000 vehicles and battery packs per year, and will grow to 500,000, with the first cars expected to roll off the production line in about three years."
• Oct-2018 Land bought
• Jan-2019 Construction started on a swamp

Currently on track for first customer vehicle off the full production line in December 2019 vs Tesla guidance for first car around August 2021 as recently as August 2018.
Tracking 16 months vs 36 months initial guidance.
That's the Elon time I like to see!

 

[mrmage]

Guess some older Teslas will appreciate after all.

https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/tesla-removes-free-unlimited-supercharging-used-cars/

 

[powertoold]

• August-2018 Tesla shareholder letter - "In July, we announced our plan to build a wholly Tesla-owned Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai – our first Gigafactory outside the US. We are excited about this opportunity, as China is by far the largest EV market in the world and Chinese support for electric vehicles has been exceptionally strong. Initial capacity is expected to be roughly 250,000 vehicles and battery packs per year, and will grow to 500,000, with the first cars expected to roll off the production line in about three years."

And stock price was $320 in Aug 2018

 

[M3Rider]

We have all our eggs in one basket. I'd rather us have humans elsewhere in the universe just in case. Plus, for all we know humans might be the only intelligent life in the universe. A universe without someone to appreciate it is a pretty pointless thing.

See "Bob Lazar: Area 51 & Flying Saucers" on Netflix.

There are 9 saucers in area 51 that fly based on anti-gravity propulsion and clueless humans try to reverse-engineer them since, like, at least 1989 with no apparent success.

Anyway, after that area is stormed in September, hopefully, all the saucers are taken apart and turned into souvenirs and then we can consider the matter of alien artifacts closed, because nobody will be able to prove they ever existed and worked.

 

[AlexS]

I expect some hefty covering in the end of the day

 

[MarcusMaximus]

He’s just saying he want to move all of earth’s economy on to clean/renewable energy, except for rockets which is impossible

It's odd that he cites Newton's 3rd law as the reason why it's impossible to do without burning things. Newton's 3rd law says nothing about burning things. It just requires that in order to propel the rocket upwards, something needs to be pushed backwards with equal force. Burning things is a very effective way to do that, but it certainly isn't the only way to do that. It's probably correct to say that's the only currently available way to make sufficient propulsion, but he makes it sound like anything else is completely impossible.

 

[X Fan]

share price under pressure today.....

 

[Stars aligned]

View attachment 432712

It's interesting that for all expirations until March 2020, with one exception, the red put area in the Max Pain is higher. Any interpretation what that could mean?

 

[StealthP3D]

Or are we dealing with the deep pockets of the meat industry?

The meat industry only has coin pockets compared to what we are dealing with.

That said, I expect a see-saw ride into earnings. Will likely close going into earnings in the mid $250s.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I cannot fathom selling shares or adding to a short position right now. We've gotten nothing but positive indicators since Q2 P&D numbers and even though Q1 was a surprise to the downside, Q3 2018 was a massive surprise to the upside. The risk/reward just isnt there to be shorting more right now......but based on today's stock action and volume activity, I'd say additional shorting is happening.

 

[StealthP3D]

The risk/reward just isnt there to be shorting more right now......but based on today's stock action and volume activity, I'd say additional shorting is happening.

I certainly hope so! This action will all be meaningless when Tesla finally speaks. The more shares shorted, the better.

 

[Mader Levap]

Plus, for all we know humans might be the only intelligent life in the universe.

Extremely unlikely, though silentum universi and it's implications are disturbing.

A universe without someone to appreciate it is a pretty pointless thing.

There is no point or goal; universe exists because it exists. Nothing less, nothing more.