Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

Alternate analysis. You were able to dollar cost average your SP. (I'm in the same boat)

Yep. That's exactly how I see it and am completely happy with my strategy. Other than the fact that I had 1 more large buy set at a 173 price that never triggered.

 

[sunny-value]

Would SEC now wake up and sue Morgan Stanely and Adam Jonas for misleading investors?

No - Because they are Shortseller Enhancement Commission after all ;-)

You really think actual investors buy and sell based on what Jonas says? Really are there people that dumb that are yet smart enough to earn enough money to save some of it and invest it in stocks? I was under the impression the purpose of sell-side analysts was to make weathermen look respectable and to provide a modern-day financial sector version of the court jester or clown.

 

[sunny-value]

And this is why I'm amazed the US is not playing nicer with Mexico. I mean where else can we relocate all those people who live in the low lying areas in Florida, Georgia, Texas, etc?

Canada is too cold for most of them.

Canada too cold?
Not for long...last years heat wave took fricking Alberta to 92F. People in Toronto were jumping into the lake to cool off.

 

[Singuy]

A year from now Model 3 might be improved too. At some point you just have to buy your vehicle and enjoy your life and not worry about what things you may or may not miss based on unsubstantiated rumors.

I remember before the Model 3 came out, there was a narrative that a HUD was pretty much inevitable. Still waiting...

Refer back to what Elon said during the conference call. He said leaked rumor affected sales dramatically. No reason to think this time is different.

So either Tesla need to come out and crush these rumors or accelerate the timeline for the refresh.

 

[Drax7]

D

Duffman says, temporary bounce. Just as the market went up from way oversold conditions, so too did TSLA. I don’t really see any fundamental change in the last three market days to the short term story. As others have pointed out, without necessarily being too much higher beta, TSLA is going to move faster in these types of wild swings.without a strong change to the story. Leaking info about possibly slightly higher sales than what may have been modeled doesn’t change it too much for me.

Now, it we really can get up over 215/220$ here with conviction and hold that - even when the overall market inevitably is going to move lower again, then that could be a change in consensus. I’m not going to chase this move though at this point.

I think short gots more than they EXPECTED and don’t want to look a gift horse in the mouth, and that led to a dis proportionate amount of buying. I have been too busy in the past five days to crunch the numbers and review short interest change but I think I know what I am going to find when I do.

My overall mkt feeling is we’ll have some lower market tests in the near term. I would expect TSLA to perform similarly to the last mkt down trend. Meaning, another over react to the downside.

The likelihood that Tesla would have a favorable quarter did not appear likely
Until recently. They are pushing hard to get above the prior 90,000
Deliveries. That implies they have the orders, the production and batteries , and are
Now making an all out effort to deliver by qtr end. This new information is positive
And the stock price is reacting accordingly.

 

[Nocturnal]

You really think actual investors buy and sell based on what Jonas says? Really are there people that dumb that are yet smart enough to earn enough money to save some of it and invest it in stocks? I was under the impression the purpose of sell-side analysts was to make weathermen look respectable and to provide a modern-day financial sector version of the court jester or clown.

Most investors are no better at investing than a monkey throwing darts. (I'm in no way pretending that I'm not in this category, which is why I invest in few individual stocks) That said, I do think there are plenty of investors that do listen to guys like that. Even the institutional investors probably take those types of statements as evidence of broader sentiment.

It's also human nature. We don't like to be the outlier. Deep down people prefer to take the risk that they are wrong, but wrong along with the larger crowd, and than to be wrong and be the oddball out. If you fail with the crowd you can make excuses. If you fail on your own then it's only yourself you can blame.

A year from now Model 3 might be improved too. At some point you just have to buy your vehicle and enjoy your life. No point in worrying about what things you may or may not miss based on unsubstantiated rumors.

I remember before the Model 3 came out, there was a narrative that a HUD was pretty much inevitable. Still waiting...

I do think it's weird. Doesn't it seem like potential Tesla owners are more sensitive to these kinds of changes than regular car buyers? Every year ICE cars know that a new model year is coming out, nearly always with some small tweaks. Sure last year models are discounted, but not by anything crazy. Perhaps Tesla buyers think more like tech buyers, where waiting for the new model of IPhone is far preferable than buying the current? The raven partial refresh surely will help.

 

[M3Rider]

Not saying Tivo was wrong at all. He has been right more than anyone else I can recall here. Wish I had been trading on his calls.

Just to offset this, a reminder that on the way down $350 -> $180 he said couple of times that whomever loaded up on calls after some significant falls will do nicely. That didn't work out very well. Not blaming him, just saying it depends, which of his calls you decide to trade on.

 

[Artful Dodger]

In terms of EV partnership / consolidation I can think of the following. I am sure there is more.

Ford + VW
Subaru + Toyota
Honda + GM
Fiat Chrysler + Renault / Nissan
JLR + BMW
Daimler + BAIC (China)

Duncan McLeod has something to say about that.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm really curious to know if the climb this week is more shorts covering or just higher demand for the stock. If it's the former, that's good as the smart ones are showing prudence based on rumblings for 2Q deliveries, it it's the latter that's even better as it means there are still 40 million shares/30% of the float to be bought back in addition to the increased buying!

(Numbers based on Ihor's Twitter feed as of 6/4.)

Ihor Dusaniwsky‏ @ihors3 55m55 minutes ago

$TSLA short interest is $7.75 billion; 39.40 million shares shorted; 29.92% of float; 0.74% borrow fee. Shares shorted are up 1.2 million shares, +3%, over the last week even as #Tesla's stock price rose by 3.5%.​

3 replies 5 retweets 18 likes

 

[sunny-value]

Going from Q2 delivery numbers to CF and earnings impact, has anyone seen any projections assuming they get to 90K total units? Would be interesting if the FCA cash pushed them to flat or slightly positive. Probably a beat relative to expectations.

 

[JusRelax]

WAG for today: leaked info is bringing stock up premarket, will prob go up close to 210 in first half hour but will be suppressed and back down around 200 possibly below and slowly come back up around low 200s most of the day. i hope im wrong and it keeps going up tho.

I'd like to buy your crystal ball. You selling?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Regarding Twitter's new rules, I think we have a lot more reporting to do against TSLAQ crowd.


"Twitter Safety on Twitter
You may not use Twitter’s services in a manner intended to artificially amplify or suppress information or engage in behavior that manipulates or disrupts people’s experience on Twitter.

Platform manipulation and spam policy"

"Twitter Safety on Twitter
You may not engage in the targeted harassment of someone, or incite other people to do so. This includes wishing or hoping that someone experiences physical harm.

Abusive behavior"

 

[SOULPEDL]

they are rumors. Not like we know which parts are even true. The source is social media...

Some rumors intentionally set Tesla up for failure. Anything regarding profitable Q2, >90K units, or Q2 profits are likely suspect stories. These #'s (numbers, lol) are unknowable at present - along with demand or margins. However demand seems to be showing no signs of weakness according to the best known indicators using eyes and ears. Hence the aforementioned short shift in focus to margins now, then FSD, then fires, etc. They spin it as they please, but then there's reality.

I think this runup was all about everyone knowing the true value of $TSLA but just afraid to buy thinking the bottom was further down. The lower it went, the higher the pressure with everyone's computer ready to click BUY. Folks, there was no real news from Tesla and this happened. For the record, I was prepared to ride it to the bottom cuz that wouldn't be our worst problem.

 

[UncaNed]

Especially if he posts pictures...

- What are you doing now? - Averting my eyes.

 

[mtndrew1]

Tesla Model 3 is the #9 of 111 registered car models in the US for May 2019.

May 2019 – The Best-Selling Cars In America – Every Car Ranked | GCBC

Must be a demand problem?

 

[LN1_Casey]

- What are you doing now? - Averting my eyes.

On one hand, $420 stock.

On the other had, uhhhh....

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Tesla Model 3 is the #9 of 111 registered car models in the US for May 2019.

May 2019 – The Best-Selling Cars In America – Every Car Ranked | GCBC

Must be a demand problem?

And that's best selling, not most wanted, and without a dealer network or advertising.

I know we all know this... but you have to keep saying it. #9 best selling period, with no promotion. #2 best selling in California, with no promotion.

OK, also look at the growth, and look who is falling. You can see who's lunch is being eaten. Honda, Hyundai, Toyota (Camry aside, 90% of those are Uber drivers borrowing against their pensions).

 

[SOULPEDL]

Anyone see risk in China doing a reverse Huawei while defending NIO? Tesla wouldn't be the anti-Trump voters that China targets in trade wars, but it's still war which does get crazy. I'm betting this will blow over in a pseudo China trade agreement by year's end with all things claimed but nothing accomplished.

Just saying, anyone see exposure to this risk, or is everyone of the opinion that China auto tariffs hurt Tesla less than ICE?

 

[Zaxxon]

OT:

My Raven delivery is now scheduled for early next week. Personal Delivery blowout secured.

 

[pdq]

How would owning this car be better for me than owning my Tesla Model X? What are the unique selling points it will offer? I had high hopes for the I-Pace but lack of supercharger network, questionable over the air software updates and generally speaking low confidence in future R&D did not make it very interesting for me, despite a certain "flair" of the brand and nice interiors. It seems most other prospective buyers agree about this and other established car makers' EV:s, since Tesla continue to greatly outsell them. It is great that there will be more EV:s out there but I wouldn't count on any other brand automatically taking over the lead in sales just because it has a longer history and a CEO that doesn't upset the world by tweeting. In the end, I think it comes down to a cost benefit analysis for most buyers, assessing whether you get better functionality at the same or better cost. Judging from earlier disruptions in tech, I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla's major competitor will be a completely new actor, like Apple or Google.

Is it not more speculative to take a bet on that an old car manufacturer will actually manage to turn out a product that is superior to a Tesla, than betting on that the current market leader will continue to lead? I remember how iPhone was often predicted to lose to coming better smart phones from Nokia and Blackberry... Then came Samsung.

How would owning this car be better for me than owning my Tesla Model X? What are the unique selling points it will offer? I had high hopes for the I-Pace but lack of supercharger network, questionable over the air software updates and generally speaking low confidence in future R&D did not make it very interesting for me, despite a certain "flair" of the brand and nice interiors. It seems most other prospective buyers agree about this and other established car makers' EV:s, since Tesla continue to greatly outsell them. It is great that there will be more EV:s out there but I wouldn't count on any other brand automatically taking over the lead in sales just because it has a longer history and a CEO that doesn't upset the world by tweeting. In the end, I think it comes down to a cost benefit analysis for most buyers, assessing whether you get better functionality at the same or better cost. Judging from earlier disruptions in tech, I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla's major competitor will be a completely new actor, like Apple or Google.

Is it not more speculative to take a bet on that an old car manufacturer will actually manage to turn out a product that is superior to a Tesla, than betting on that the current market leader will continue to lead? I remember how iPhone was often predicted to lose to coming better smart phones from Nokia and Blackberry... Then came Samsung.

Terrific response, but it has nothing to do with what I posted. My post was "There seems to be a perception that no other car manufacturer in the world is actually close to producing EVs", so I provided a link showing there was another major manufacturer getting ready to roll out EVs. Since I see that you are in Sweden, you may want to see where Volvo is in going electric.

Electric Car Initiative | Volvo Car USA

I'm not debating if the product from any of these companies is better or worse than a Tesla -- I'll let you decide that. My point is that Elon woke a sleeping giant by single-handedly turning the auto industry on its head, and now many of the worlds major car companies will have product rolling out in the near future. To think that no other company is doing anything around EV is myoptic. Elon has changed the entire industry, and that change is going to occur very quickly.