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Everybody needs to calm down regarding Beijing’s free license plate thing.

Look at the poster, the sentence I marked in red says “数量有限,先到先得”, which means “limited availability, first come first served”.

Of course not every new energy green license plate in Beijing is going to be issued to Tesla.

Think about it, the less promotion we see the better. Of course it’s not possible to do business without some kind of sales every now and then. But can we stop celebrating promotions like this.

3C835C76-5261-4A9B-8F09-61F18791F3E2.jpeg
 
After a really negative May and 2019 for Tesla, June has started on good note. A good time to consider if my 2022 bull forecast still hold water from January 2018. I think the average selling price for the model S/X is going to continue to go down from my $100k assumption. I suspect in the next couple of refreshes of the platform for these cars Tesla is going to make a step function down on pricing over time. This should drive higher unit sales which should offset each other so sticking with $10b annual for the large premium segment. I'm still confident on the 3/Y volume platform forecast with Fremont and China factory @ about 24k units a week. Pickup and Semi the "work platform" might be a bit aggressive but with a 2020 launch for Semi and 2021 launch for Pickup should give time to ramp up volume and marketshare. With the confirmation that Y is going to Fremont, it's logical that Semi/Pickup is going to be built in Nevada. These million mile work platforms are going to be driven by ROI and higher margins then the volume car segment so really excited about the platform. Wildcards for me continue to be mobility service and energy.

2022 Bull Case Revenue Forecast: 1/4/2018
Model S/X 100k Units @ 100k = $10B
Model 3/Y 1.2m Units @ 45k = $54B
Roadster 5k Units @ $200k = $1B
Pickup 300k Units @ $50k = $15B
Semi 100k Units @ $150k = $15B
Mobility Service >= $5B
Energy >= $10B

$110B Revenue ~ 16 Billion Operating Profit with 20 P/E puts us at $320b market cap or $1600 a share (200 million shares outstanding)

Tesla annual revenue for 2018 was $21.461B, a 82.51% increase from 2017. Tesla annual revenue for 2017 was $11.759B, a 67.98% increase from 2016. 2019 will continue to be challenging environment but with the 2020 china effect should put us back on track with 2021 and 2022 being the breakout years. I expect mild economic weakness as we enter 2020 as all the macro challenges and economic imbalances come back into balance.

Added to my position the recent weakness and now at 1,116 shares @ ~190 share basis. A big speculative bet on what could turn out to be a wonderfully profitable company.

I have recently come around to the thinking that Elon will follow the Bezos playbook and plough all profits into the business in a manner that means there will not be any large earnings reported for quite a few years. That is to say if Tesla starts earning large amount of net income, then Tesla will lower prices to increase volume (if possible) and accelerate the expansion of the service and charging infrastructure.

Which is to say we should perhaps not expect earnings to support the share price via a reasonable P/E multiple.
 
Somebody needs to spell this out explicitly here, so here's a helpful tweet:

Ming Zhao‏ @mingcalls 4h4 hours ago

Follow-up: EVs to get a plate in Beijing is not done by lottery drawing. It is by queueing as each yr has quota (60k). Right now 420k applicants in queue, meaning already 2026 for new applicant. $tsla lease with a free plate is magical. @ValueAnalyst1 @vincent13031925

Here's the situaltion for EVs in Beijing right now:
  • max. 60K new licence plates issued per year
  • current backlog (queue) is 420K applications
  • that means a 7 yr wait for a new plate
Here's the deal new Tesla drivers get in Beijing right now:
  • 0% interest on a 3-yr lease
  • free EV plate with every lease (skip the queue)
  • ICE cars can only drive on alternate days
Now I ask you, how is this not front page news on WSJ/Bloomberg/NYTimes/CNBC? Oh yeah, it doesn't fit their *sugar* story...

So, I wonder how many plate max that Tesla can get for Beijing? It sounds like they could have like 50% market share easily. That's over a month of LR production at Fremont just for Beijing. Of course the demand will only increase in 2020 when GF3/Shanghai starts producing SR+ vehicles, but these free plates will be "magic" for LR sales in Beijing.

Cheers!

P.S. Bet that Beijing is one of the 1st jursidictions to approve TN Robotaxis? There's a 10x multiplier to the value of an FSD car versus a POV that sits unused for 95% of the time.

I wonder if this makes buying even American made Tesla's more practical? I.e. we don't need to wait for GF3 for this to have a big impact.
 
Unless this is in your IRA won't you get hit with WASH rules tax liability?
Wash sale rules affect IRA transactions as well (and purchasing in an IRA after making a sale that becomes a wash sale makes it even worse, because the cost basis increase provision of the wash sale rule doesn't apply either).

Honestly, if there's not an IRA involved, I personally don't worry much about the wash sale rule, because of that cost basis increase provision. Basically means that, sure, I can't claim the loss on my taxes, but as the loss is added to the cost basis of the repurchased shares, I'll have less profit in future sales.

Given that everyone in the vietnam video seems to be wearing a face mask, I think I'd rather be in a tesla robotaxi with bioweapon defense mode, even if it took me twice as long to get to work due to conservative driving. Also safest car in the world. alive+lungs ok > got there quicker.
Conversely, if everyone in that video was in a car, everyone would get there a lot slower. However, Musk has stated zero interest in Tesla producing anything two-wheeled other than an electric bicycle, so Tesla won't solve that problem. (125 cc-class electric scooters like what Gogoro is producing for the Taiwanese market would be extremely beneficial for cities like that, though - their scooters are likely a huge part of the pollution problem that's leading to people wearing face masks, but vehicles that size and performance really do work better than cars in that environment.)
 
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I wonder if this makes buying even American made Tesla's more practical? I.e. we don't need to wait for GF3 for this to have a big impact.

Agreed.

It's unclear what the 'limited time offer' means in terms of timing (8 days, 8 weeks or 8 months), but it almost certainly means no GF3 Teslas will be covered by this offer off 0% leasing and an immediate license plate.

It's also unclear who has control over the license plates: if it's the leasing company, i.e. Tesla, then this means Tesla Beijing will have a permanent pool of 60 thousand (?) license plates to serve leasing customers with.

So a lot of uncertainty here. Could someone translate the full text to see what the offer is and who makes the offer?
 
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Well, I snoozed on that jump, literally
Woke up to 192 yesterday. what is next?

Yesterdays graphs of S&P, NASDAQ, Dow and TSLA are remarkably alike.
Virtually identical. TSLA w/bigger gains

Following the bigger down side, on the recent downslide.
If the general market is the driver, TSLA is now acting as an
exageration of the general move?

There has been no real news
Pent up energy?
Dunno. But it just ticked to 197.3.

There has been no reliable pattern, as in the past, so I am still shy
Neither up nor down would surprise me.
 
Well, I snoozed on that jump, literally
Woke up to 192 yesterday. what is next?

Yesterdays graphs of S&P, NASDAQ, Dow and TSLA are remarkably alike.
Virtually identical. TSLA w/bigger gains

Following the bigger down side, on the recent downslide.
If the general market is the driver, TSLA is now acting as an
exageration of the general move?

There has been no real news
Pent up energy?
Dunno. But it just ticked to 197.3.

There has been no reliable pattern, as in the past, so I am still shy
Neither up nor down would surprise me.
Continued to make cars, continued to sell cars, continued to deliver cars... Nothing has changed on the tesla front, but headlines that move the stock are just that headlines and cannot substitute real car revenue.
 
Had a debate with a republican about Tesla. In their camp, they were saying how climate change is fake news. I said even if it's fake news, driving cars that uses gas funds terrorism. All of a sudden this shut them right up. What a good video, brought up points I never considered and it's absolutely fantastic to convince a diehard climate change denier republican.

Another tactic that works for those types is to tell them that 2/3rds to 3/4s of our trade deficit for the last 40+ years has been oil and oil-powered cars. We spend $150+ billion a year importing ~5 million ICE automobiles, but we are a net exporter of EVs now.
 
As you can see people saying the Audi E-tron is not a success aren't well informed; it sells quite well. There is a non-refundable charge if you want to cancel, BTW, and delivery times are excruciatingly long. Ditto for the Kona.

Um, are you using Belgium as your sample size?

Have you ever taken a statistics class?
 
The "carbon offsets" come when the new Roadster owner parks his old Lambo/Ferrari/McLaren and hot chicks nolonger think they're cool. :cool:

BTW, agree on your point above, 10K Roadsters/yr is aspirational, and the only metric that matters is how much it REDUCES sales of the traditional Supercar brands.

Roadster will do to ICE Supercars what the Model 3 did to BMW sports sedans. I think Tony Stark was right: The best weapon is one you only have to fire once (hard-core smack down)


Cheers!
Ferraris are iconic and cool. People will want them even if the Roadster is faster. It might help a little if Tesla contributed to a Ferris Bueller 2...