Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SO16]

Over the past 2 days I've spent a couple hours interviewing ARK's Cathie Wood for my upcoming book.

All I will say right is: Whoa. I can't wait to get this book out. And now back to work.

Whoa good we should buy more TSLA or whoa bad and run for the hills?

 

[Remus]

BEV has a $10k+ fuel tank and a 20% cheaper drive train. The math only works for vehicles with small fuel tanks and very expensive drive trains - e.g. high performance sedans. In fact, the drive train savings can be higher in the high performance niche because they're squeezing those ICEs for every horsepower they can get and they don't build them in super-high volume.

The mainstream market is a different story. Leaf is twice the price of the similar Versa, and less capable. A BEV Camry would cost 40k vs. 25k. The math for SUVs and pickups is even worse as they need large fuel tanks. $50k Model Y lacks the 'SUV look" and has less utility than a 25k RAV4. The Model Y is faster, of course, but that's my whole point. It's stuck in the premium performance niche - there is no path to match the upfront price of mainstream ICEs. Cutting the $10k+ battery to 8k+ doesn't fix this.

I'm not sure I'd call a 300% spread "highly predictable", lol, but I'll definitely check out the thread.​

10k gas tank that is still dropping in price.

A 20% cheaper drive train with virtually no maintainace needed and practically last forever, and it cost 70% less to run. I sure hope the general public are not all so shortsighted. Another reason to be excited about the Semi trucks.

We have a frugle guy in our office bragging about he knows a technician who keeps his 20 year old Camry running. After chatting a little turns out he spends more than 500 paying the technician, to use his car for his 50 miles commute. And he admits he is on the market for another Camry end of this year.

So I told him if the old car runs 30mpg with 4 dollar gas right now he spends 1500 per year on gas. With a 35k model 3 he saves about 1500 per year, and there is no way in hell his old car can get 30mpg in stop and go traffic. And the model 3 doesn't have spark plugs, serpent belts, coolant pump, alternator, o2 sensor, all the things he replaced several times. It doesn't have a transmission so he would never need to clean his garage floor for transmission fluid leaks, which he also did several times.

Then after talking with another colleague who has a 2014 model S, he was talking with his wife getting the funds ready.

 

[TheMrX]

BEV has a $10k+ fuel tank and a 20% cheaper drive train. The math only works for vehicles with small fuel tanks and very expensive drive trains - e.g. high performance sedans. In fact, the drive train savings can be higher in the high performance niche because they're squeezing those ICEs for every horsepower they can get and they don't build them in super-high volume.

The mainstream market is a different story. Leaf is twice the price of the similar Versa, and less capable. A BEV Camry would cost 40k vs. 25k. The math for SUVs and pickups is even worse as they need large fuel tanks. $50k Model Y lacks the 'SUV look" and has less utility than a 25k RAV4. The Model Y is faster, of course, but that's my whole point. It's stuck in the premium performance niche - there is no path to match the upfront price of mainstream ICEs. Cutting the $10k+ battery to 8k+ doesn't fix this.

I'm not sure I'd call a 300% spread "highly predictable", lol, but I'll definitely check out the thread.​

I traded in a truck with a 100 liters tanks (diesel) and it was doing 9L/100km (24 MPG) which is comparable to any v6 gas sedan. Not only do I pay less monthly right now compared to what I was paying (vehicle + fuel) but the fuel savings alone is paying for the car on a 8 years of ownership. I concede that I drive a LOT (45-60 k KM/year).

My wife would be in a market for something like a RAV4 (bit bigger, we have 3 kids but anyways). She is paying a bit more than 200$ a month in gas with a Forester. So let's take your number of 25K for the vehicle, add 200$ gas a month and that brings it to 45K in 8 years of ownership. So not exactly there but pretty close (without accounting superior vehicle, other maintenance expenses).

Edit: forgot to say : electricity is at 0.09$ per KW/h here, oil changes pay for electric bill of the car..

 

[RobStark]

 

[tinm]

Whoa good we should buy more TSLA or whoa bad and run for the hills?

Let's just say ARK has drunk the kool-aid on Tesla. Rightly so, imho. They're very transparent about their rationale and why they believe the opportunity is yuuge. Their level of conviction reminds me of Michael Burry, the character played by Christian Bale in THE BIG SHORT.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

The article is in French, but basically they are saying that Fiat Chrysler are in talks to partner/merge with Renault/Nissan. If this were to happen, could they pull out of the $2 billion deal they made with Tesla and create a pool with Nissan instead?

Renault et Fiat Chrysler discutent d'un rapprochement | Auto

 

[MP3Mike]

The article is in French, but basically they are saying that Fiat Chrysler are in talks to partner/merge with Renault/Nissan. If this were to happen, could they pull out of the $2 billion deal they made with Tesla and create a pool with Nissan instead?

We don't know because the details of the contract are confidential.

 

[Remus]

I traded in a truck with a 100 liters tanks (diesel) and it was doing 9L/100km (24 MPG) which is comparable to any v6 gas sedan. Not only do I pay less monthly right now compared to what I was paying (vehicle + fuel) but the fuel savings alone is paying for the car on a 8 years of ownership. I concede that I drive a LOT (45-60 k KM/year).

My wife would be in a market for something like a RAV4 (bit bigger, we have 3 kids but anyways). She is paying a bit more than 200$ a month in gas with a Forester. So let's take your number of 25K for the vehicle, add 200$ gas a month and that brings it to 45K in 8 years of ownership. So not exactly there but pretty close (without accounting superior vehicle, other maintenance expenses).

Edit: forgot to say : electricity is at 0.09$ per KW/h here, oil changes pay for electric bill of the car..

Exactly! And now add in all the repair cost!

It doesn't help when Japanese cars are getting more and more unreliable. Ever since the turn of the century they often have engine or transmission problems.

 

[RobStark]

The article is in French, but basically they are saying that Fiat Chrysler are in talks to partner/merge with Renault/Nissan. If this were to happen, could they pull out of the $2 billion deal they made with Tesla and create a pool with Nissan instead?

Renault et Fiat Chrysler discutent d'un rapprochement | Auto

They need Zoes and LEAFs to offset Nissan and Renault ICEv.

Doubt they have that many extra credits.

 

[generalenthu]

, let's not have a shoutout again of Tesla inventory left in every region of the US

I was at a service center today for getting a flat plugged and talked to the person there.

FWIW he said, there is a bunch of inventory. It might just be the program that displays it that's showing less. He did say that they are running full throttle with deliveries here in tysons corner, around 150 per week. There were apparently no more available slots in the near term, though I didn't ask what near term was.

 

[K_Dizzle]

I was at a service center today for getting a flat plugged and talked to the person there.

FWIW he said, there is a bunch of inventory. It might just be the program that displays it that's showing less. He did say that they are running full throttle with deliveries here in tysons corner, around 150 per week. There were apparently no more available slots in the near term, though I didn't ask what near term was.

Sounds like Tyson’s corner end Vancouver are taking 95% of the current production capacity. How are there any cars left for any other stores?

 

[RobStark]

In English

Fiat Chrysler and France's Renault are in talks to form a partnership

 

[jerry33]

Hi Jerry,

I don't think the vehicle requirements are a restriction for current Tesla's. The only 3 requirements I know of are all handled now:

• Red Button on passenger seat belt release - All N.Am. spec cars have this now
• Speedo/Odo must be in Kilometer - handled in software now, configurable by User
• Daytime Running Lights (DRLs) - Req'd in Canada, again set in software

There IS a restriction in place at TESLA's request to deny Canadians from importing U.S. Tesla's into Canada, but that is a based on a company policy, not Canadian Legislation.

Tesla argues that Canadian Service Centers would be overwhelmed by U.S cars. I don't necessarily believe that, but I do know that I can't by the $40K used S I see in the States and bring it home. I have to buy the same Yr/Spec/Condition used Tesla here in Canada for $60K or more, but with less choice.

But no, I think Tesla could bring those new cars across the border if they wanted to. There's just no extra reason, since the $5K rebate which is driving demand applies only to the SR+ spec Model 3.

Cheers!

There would also be French language requirement, and the DLRs can't be turned off by the driver, so it requires a different software version. That is, Tesla couldn't just take a car from Seattle and ship it to Vancouver without reinstalling the software, so it would have to be a wipe and reinstall. While it would be technically possible to do this at a service centre, I doubt they would actually do it anywhere other than at the factory.

 

[Jovian]

The article is in French, but basically they are saying that Fiat Chrysler are in talks to partner/merge with Renault/Nissan. If this were to happen, could they pull out of the $2 billion deal they made with Tesla and create a pool with Nissan instead?

Renault et Fiat Chrysler discutent d'un rapprochement | Auto

I was wondering this as well.

 

[JRP3]

Was getting requests to do a race bar chart based on brand and not model. Thanks to everybody who helped promote the original!

Mase Goslin on Twitter

How about a version with only real EV's and no plugin hybrids?

 

[Doggydogworld]

And yet, the Model 3, which is basically just a luxury version of a Camry starts under that...

SR+ is 39.9k+1.2k delivery = 41.1k. And while I love the Model 3's minimalist interior, it's not "luxury".

A 20% cheaper drive train with virtually no maintainace needed and practically last forever, and it cost 70% less to run.....

I traded in a truck with a 100 liters tanks (diesel) and it was doing 9L/100km (24 MPG) which is comparable to any v6 gas sedan. Not only do I pay less monthly right now compared to what I was paying (vehicle + fuel) but the fuel savings alone is paying for the car on a 8 years of ownership....

This sub-thread is about upfront cost. I said several times TCO parity is a different story.

 

[Mokuzai]

How about a version with only real EV's and no plugin hybrids?

Wouldn't that just be unfair??

 

[tinm]

The article is in French, but basically they are saying that Fiat Chrysler are in talks to partner/merge with Renault/Nissan. If this were to happen, could they pull out of the $2 billion deal they made with Tesla and create a pool with Nissan instead?

Renault et Fiat Chrysler discutent d'un rapprochement | Auto

Wow. For the past year I've been privately predicting one or two major global automakers to merge, downsize, or worse, between 2018 and say 2021. Looks like it has started. I still think we'll see at least one other big automaker forced to do this in the next 2 years. Consolidation or collapse is one response the legacy automakers can make to Tesla. As the Knight in Raiders of the Lost Ark might say, "They chose . . . poorly."

 

[Remus]

The Model Y is faster, of course, but that's my whole point. It's stuck in the premium performance niche - there is no path to match the upfront price of mai

This sub-thread is about upfront cost. I said several times TCO parity is a different story.

Ok so you assume the general public is most stupid and shortsighted, and they can not see beyond the immediate cost thus EVs are forever in a niche due to higher upfront cost alone.

Got it

 

[Artful Dodger]

There would also be French language requirement, and the DLRs can't be turned off by the driver, so it requires a different software version. That is, Tesla couldn't just take a car from Seattle and ship it to Vancouver without reinstalling the software, so it would have to be a wipe and reinstall. While it would be technically possible to do this at a service centre, I doubt they would actually do it anywhere other than at the factory.

Lol, no, that can be easily done in software. The car knows where it is via its GPS. It's just a setting flag in the configuration. And its trivial to show that Canadian cars have the same version of the software as US cars via the info screen.

The language option is also user configurable, it doesn't require any different software, its just a data file.

Already in the EU, certainly Autopilot features are disabled when you drive across certain borders where national policies differ. Drive back across the border, working again. This was discussed here on TMC a few months back, I think its 'auto lane-change without confirmation', but EU members may be able to confirm.

Cheers!