Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Anstandswauwau]

So Tesla and Panasonic almost doubled GF1 capacity within about 6-7 months, from 18 GWh to 35 GWh.

So it's reasonable to assume that the automotive production of Tesla is (currently) not cell-constrained, correct?

 

[Sudre]

I am wondering if maybe Panasonic is not part of the Maxwell advancement. Not even a theory just a thought that went thru my head.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla will need to find a way to soak up 14GWh of cells very soon now.

There's reports of PowerWall orders made back in 2017 that still haven't been fulfilled in 2019. While I'm sure Tesla would prefer to use cells to sell 4x higher value cars, it's not like they don't know what to do with any excess supply.

But I do agree that Tesla would likely punt on having 50 GWh/year obligations in 2020. That's just too risky without first seeing how well automotive and Tesla Energy ramps globally.

 

[Pras]

There's reports of PowerWall orders made back in 2017 that still haven't been fulfilled in 2019. While I'm sure Tesla would prefer to use cells to sell 4x higher value cars, it's not like they don't know what to do with any excess supply.

But I do agree that Tesla would likely punt on having 50 GWh/year obligations in 2020. That's just too risky without first seeing how well automotive and Tesla Energy ramps globally.

Especially when battery technology is also evolving. Better have multiple source and tech in options.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Back to 276 on Tesla announcement!!

Edit: Well that lasted for a minute!! (I forgot to knock on wood!!)

 

[Artful Dodger]

that's a reiteration of guidance from Panasonic who last Fall announced plans to expand production at GF1 to 35GWh/yr.

Here's Panasonic's announcement last Fall of their 35GWh/yr production target for GF1/Sparks:

Reuters October 31, 2018

“Investment for capacity beyond 35 GWh means that Tesla would also need to make substantial investment in vehicle production, so we will closely align with each other. Though Elon’s comments are unpredictable, we will continue to monitor Tesla’s operations to ensure no chaos there and will work in step with the company. But I don’t see the U.S. electric car maker’s business operations have been put into chaos,” Tsuga said.​

Yeah, this was the plan for a long time. Now that plan has turned into confirmed production capabilities.

Tesla + Panasonic Partnership delivering as promised 6 mths ago.

So of course, the FUD must fly.

Lol!

 

[Fact Checking]

So it's reasonable to assume that the automotive production of Tesla is (currently) not cell-constrained, correct?

Yes, I think that was clear from the Q1 delivery report already: Tesla automotive absorbed at most about ~20 GWh/year annualized 2170 cell output in Q1. They can and probably will scale up Fremont to higher output, but that will probably include a higher mix of SR units.

They'll start soaking up cells once the Shanghai Gigafactory gets going though, but I don't see Tesla committing to absorb a 50 GWh/year cell supply by 2020 before they see that the three pending ramp-up efforts are sustained: Model 3, Tesla Energy and Shanghai.

 

[phigment]

Back to 276 on Tesla announcement!!

I see it at $266 still. What announcement?

 

[Pras]

Back to 276 on Tesla announcement!!

Spoke too soon? I don’t see it.

 

[Fact Checking]

Interesting bullish spike in pre-market trading: there was just a 37k shares BUY I believe, which soaked up the selling liquidity at around $265.5 and briefly spiked the price up by $10 to ~$276.

 

[Singer3000]

I believe this is likely the best explanation. The purchase obligations are really starting to bite this year. In fact, looking at evolution of the disclosed numbers some purchase obligations moved from 2018 to 2019. At the time it wasn't clear if this was due to Tesla not ready to absorb whatever Panasonic was producing or that Panasonic wasn't able to deliver what Tesla wanted to purchase. Now that we have confirmation that the Gigafactory is running at 35GWh but Tesla is at best absorbing 21 GWh on a yearly rate, there is no way to spin that as good news. And that 20GWh rate is based on 5500 cars sustained every single week (Tesla is still not there) with a very generous average capacity 66kWh per car (doubtful they'll maintain that kind of average once SR is available worldwide) and doing slightly better than guided 2GWh energy product. Tesla will need to find a way to soak up 14GWh of cells very soon now.

I don’t want to be glib but this doesn’t sound very hard at all if you anywhere believe 10k/week Model 3 this year.

Step 1)
2,000 SR at Fremont x 50kWh x 52 weeks
+
3,000 SR at Shanghai x 50kWh x 52 weeks

= 13 GWh

Step 2)
Shanghai plant transitions to locally sourced cells
+
GF1 needs XXX GWh for Model Y and Semi

 

[Leo9]

Spoke too soon? I don’t see it.

Lasted less than 60s.

 

[K_Dizzle]

I believe this is likely the best explanation. The purchase obligations are really starting to bite this year. In fact, looking at evolution of the disclosed numbers some purchase obligations moved from 2018 to 2019. At the time it wasn't clear if this was due to Tesla not ready to absorb whatever Panasonic was producing or that Panasonic wasn't able to deliver what Tesla wanted to purchase. Now that we have confirmation that the Gigafactory is running at 35GWh but Tesla is at best absorbing 21 GWh on a yearly rate, there is no way to spin that as good news. And that 20GWh rate is based on 5500 cars sustained every single week (Tesla is still not there) with a very generous average capacity 66kWh per car (doubtful they'll maintain that kind of average once SR is available worldwide) and doing slightly better than guided 2GWh energy product. Tesla will need to find a way to soak up 14GWh of cells very soon now.

I have a semi idea of where the capacity might go.

 

[schonelucht]

There's reports of PowerWall orders made back in 2017 that still haven't been fulfilled in 2019. While I'm sure Tesla would prefer to use cells to sell 4x higher value cars, it's not like they don't know what to do with any excess supply.

14GWh of it? They guided for 2GWh this year which would already be doubling energy product.. You really expect them to exceed guidance 7 times over? I am sorry but that's wishful thinking. I can only see them putting Model 3 cells in the S/X or selling to other car manufacturers as viable ways if Pana isn't willing to reduce production.

 

[davecolene0606]

I believe this is likely the best explanation. The purchase obligations are really starting to bite this year. In fact, looking at evolution of the disclosed numbers some purchase obligations moved from 2018 to 2019. At the time it wasn't clear if this was due to Tesla not ready to absorb whatever Panasonic was producing or that Panasonic wasn't able to deliver what Tesla wanted to purchase. Now that we have confirmation that the Gigafactory is running at 35GWh but Tesla is at best absorbing 21 GWh on a yearly rate, there is no way to spin that as good news. And that 20GWh rate is based on 5500 cars sustained every single week (Tesla is still not there) with a very generous average capacity 66kWh per car (doubtful they'll maintain that kind of average once SR is available worldwide) and doing slightly better than guided 2GWh energy product. Tesla will need to find a way to soak up 14GWh of cells very soon now.

TE...

Finally.

Fire Away!

 

[Fact Checking]

Media in the U.S. is controlled by six corporations. None of whom care about anything other than profits and the CEO's salary.

Indeed:

"These 6 Corporations Control 90% Of The Media In America"​

 

[Todd Burch]

So it's reasonable to assume that the automotive production of Tesla is (currently) not cell-constrained, correct?

My guess is that Tesla automotive is probably not cell constrained. I suspect auto production bottlenecks are now elsewhere.

 

[bdy0627]

I don’t want to be glib but this doesn’t sound very hard at all if you anywhere believe 10k/week Model 3 this year.

Step 1)
2,000 SR at Fremont x 50kWh x 52 weeks
+
3,000 SR at Shanghai x 50kWh x 52 weeks

= 13 GWh

Step 2)
Shanghai plant transitions to locally sourced cells
+
GF1 needs XXX GWh for Model Y and Semi

I'm highly skeptical we will see Shanghai with meaningful production prior to November, and it's unlikely to jump straight to 3k per week. Maybe sustained 3k rate by Q2 2020? I'd love to be wrong. I think Fremont could hit that target by early 2020.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Grid scale packs for applications like island build out(think Puerto Rico) must be flying off the shelves. No idea the scale of Energy sales, but 2019 should be pretty insane given the solar/wind+storage PPAs in the works. It's all starting. Finally.

 

[Sean Wagner]

@Fact Checking

Excellent use of smilies

My comment on alphaville is far from perfect, but the point was to include important and pertinent data that they simply aren't even cognizant of:
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/04...asonic-hold-fire-on-the-Gigafactory/#comments