Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

this is a really smart way to do the referral program but I know with this and the free SC for Model S/X owners that already had it, tomorrow morning could be rough

Anyone who sells based on that is a moron. They’re giving away <$100 of free supercharging if you buy a $35k+ car. Even the grandfathered free SC thing(if true; again, I’m one of those and haven’t gotten anything) costs Tesla between $0 and some insanely tiny amount in exchange for the sale of a $80k+ car.

EDIT: oh, and 3 Model Y’s and 1 Roadster every quarter. That’ll cost them ~$400,000 per quarter. DOOOOOOOMED

 

[Antares Nebula]

I was just reading the article about the Wedbush analysts, Dan Ives and Strecker Backe that visited the Fremont factory recently.
Spoiler Alert:

They were impressed and remain bullish.

Anyway, it made me think about all the investors here that probably have more on the line than any of these analysts. I realize that owners can get tours and such but how exciting would it be to have a group invite to all the retail investors for a big blow-out party like the ones they do for employees on occasion. Maybe after all the dust settles with the SEC, demand hell, delivery hell, it would be an extremely Tesla-like show of appreciation for those of us that have patiently supported the company through thick and thin.

Those of us that alienated our family, lost our jobs by spending too much time on this GD forum, forgotten what our kids look like, all the sacrifices we've made. They could partition off the stadium into sections based on the different forums so using name tags we could put a face to the avatar. Could you imagine the buying frenzy if they made it a 10 share or 100 share minimum for the invite.

$420 secured.​

They could do something like that at their annual shareholders meeting, like berkshire hathaway's -- so called woodstock for capitalists.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

So check your loot box!

 

[capster]

Where can I put an order in for that? Is there a demi-god who looks after this? I’ll volunteer Bob Lutz for sacrifice. I’d like this to happen within the next 24 hours. I’m not afraid of change. I would rather just get it done and over with. Procrastinating is for puppies.

I have to say, it’s a hard, hard individual who both promotes human sacrifice and disses puppies.

Puppies do not procrastinate. They are either all in or completely shut down.

However, I do, ahem, second the motion on Lutz.

 

[Curt Renz]

Thanks to Curt for making everyone on TMC aware of this video.

You're, welcome. And let's not forget this later one from the week before Tesla's $17 per share IPO.

 

[SteveG3]

Volvo’s Chief Executive agrees with basic developing dynamics of auto industry as discussed in this forum for years,


"It's very difficult to say if we're going to have the same margins in 2025 as we had in 2015 ... because electric cars are very expensive," Chief Executive Hakan Samuelsson told Reuters on the sidelines of a safety showcase by the company in Gothenburg.

"But I would be absolute sure we will have the same margins with electric cars as we will with conventional combustion cars in 2025."

Samuelsson said the convergence would be helped by reducing costs for components such as batteries and declining margins on conventional cars.“


Volvo expects electric car margins to match conventional vehicles by 2025

 

[Antares Nebula]

Lol, the BB don't move by just by displaying a chart.

Here's the 6 month chart. Look in the top left for the red BB values.

Cheers!

View attachment 389017

Maybe I misread here, but I think the dispute/confusion is due to the bollinger band in question: hour, daily, weekly, monthly, etc. The bollinger bands are different, depending on the time frame. Can even have one and five minute bollinger bands

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

You're, welcome. And let's not forget this later one from the week before Tesla's $17 per share IPO.

That didn’t age well.

 

[SBenson]

Wow... This was just posted on Reddit:

And counting : teslamotors

Showing 618128 cars currently "online / registered" with Tesla. Someone is about to get fired.

If end of Q4 2018 Tesla had 531268 cars delivered (is this right?), that means currently, there are 86,860 already manufactured this Q. Would probably have to take inventory into account (and take into account the original roadster numbers as they are not connected?), but still, that's a good number with a week and a half to go and the "big push" is next week... Record numbers again it seems

Obviously good for investors if true, bad for owners. Open serious questions on how tightly privacy safeguards are enforced when someone with access to a tool that shows vitals for any car is so casual about taking and (letting distribute) a screenshot.

How do we know these are not all vehicles produced (as opposed to only delivered)?

As this seem to be the go to tool to find info about any car, I would think this includes all cars, including the ones in inventory and transit.

If that were the case, it seems to imply only 66K produced cars in the quarter so far. Seems quite low. But on the other hand 86K cars delivered qtd seems quite very high.

 

[sparcs]

Honestly, I'm a bit surprised that the judge gave Musk a surreply. Musk's attorneys previewed that they would be introducing negotiation communications. Normally, judges refuse to hear such things.

Here's hoping that Musk's attorneys make good use of this opportunity.

Net positive overall. Even if the odds are stacked against Elon (considering the SECs track record of winning in court).

His attorneys have to have something credible to even try to make that claim at this point.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I think we win long term if Musk is forced into strict communication compliance, and gets a communication couch.

He needs to stop BS about how Tesla almost died last time around. I'm afraid what he's gonna say in couple of months about this quarter. And he especially can't do that after Feb CC call, where he said something along 'we're not even thinking about demand'. Inconsistencies like this abound in the past, more prevalently during the MX launch. This pattern seem to be: minimize problems while they're happening as Musk is an optimist and believe he can fix them, and then, blow issues out of proportion once they're fixed, as that presents team in a better light. This perspective could be exactly how musk sees situation at the time, but for outside observers, it seems inconsistent, and these are the roots of TSLAQ accusing him of lying.

We really would be better off if he can stop talking about 'almost died' situations, dragons he slayed, and how tough it was. Crucially, I feel Musk doesn't instinctively understand difference between 1. communicating to interested parties, and those he reaches very well, vs. 2. talking to media and disinterested crowd that doesn't care, one fed by soundbites. First group will have a sympathy for those stories, second is going to see it as drama and lying...

Musk would do way better if he were to be prepped, like a politician or a witness in a court, about messages that are a no-go. Until he develops this skill himself.

Since he expressed trust in judicial system, I hope judge can send this message in a way that is not damaging, yet is convincing to Musk himself.

There, I said it, I'd prefer Musk to receive some sort of a gag order. (I changed this last statement to be more dramatic, as Disagreements were accumulating too slowly )

I am positively surprised. I didn't mince my words much, yet I got 15 disagreements, 7 likes, 3 love, 4 helpful and 2 funnies.
So it's 15 negative vs 14 (7+3+4)positives with two that can go either way, more likely negative.

But this is much different than it would have been a year or two ago, ratio would be more negative at the time. It's not my first time to go against the grain. I've gotten closer to 10:1 negative vs positive at my first gentle critique of EM, some 18-24 months ago.

Couple of conclusions from here.
While written responses were mostly negative, voting is almost a draw. it would appear that there is a very significant minority, maybe approaching half of members that support what I said, and is concerned about Tesla and Musk. And this is a silent group. Anyone that is fighting negative opinions should think about it: what is your role in suppressing fair exchange of opinions and free speech? (for the record, I want EM to get coached when discussing Tesla, not anything else). Are you a force of good when attacking others and telling them 'it's a nonsense'? Or are you enjoying this place for emotional support and don't care about information discovery?

So I conclude that this forum is more balanced than it used to be, but that people that are concerned are mostly silent. And this balancing of the forum is a concerning fact on its own. If this forum moved in more balanced direction from unquestionable support, EM is doing something wrong. Again, according to good, though minor portion of this forum. Plain and simple. (pls. remember that ratio of support for my critique of EM changed .significantly over the last couple of years)

However, there is a significant positive here too. This negative sentiment, including this forums' members, it's already reflected in SP. People are making their allocations based on their comfort levels. My ~90% of all equity allocation in TSLA of my funds, my wife's and my kids' funds is lowest I've ever been since starting to invest in TSLA. I'm not ready to go down, not yet. If anything, I increased exposure marginally over last few days by selling 2 or 3 puts short.
And we all love Tesla.
This is easily reversible, should EM choose to pay attention to it.

 

[AZRI11]

My wife is a little slow to adapt so she still drives a Toyota . Got this email today. Wonder where they got this idea from?
View attachment 388983

 

[mekberg]

Volvo’s Chief Executive agrees with basic developing dynamics of auto industry as discussed in this forum for years,


"It's very difficult to say if we're going to have the same margins in 2025 as we had in 2015 ... because electric cars are very expensive," Chief Executive Hakan Samuelsson told Reuters on the sidelines of a safety showcase by the company in Gothenburg.

"But I would be absolute sure we will have the same margins with electric cars as we will with conventional combustion cars in 2025."

Samuelsson said the convergence would be helped by reducing costs for components such as batteries and declining margins on conventional cars.“


Volvo expects electric car margins to match conventional vehicles by 2025

Good luck getting your dealerships to push EVs when they know there's less money to be made in service.

 

[Duffer]

This is a new one...Ford owners stating their SUVs are making them sick.

Potential exposure to toxic levels of carbon monoxide...complaint count is ~3,000 owners.

This hit the news last year. I guess the owners have a good case.

Video: Another police officer passes out at the wheel due to carbon monoxide exposure

 

[EVNow]

Leased vehicles returned and delivered again would be counted twice as deliveries.

This should not be the case. Those are used sales/leases - and should not be combined with new sales/leases.

 

[Pras]

Volvo’s Chief Executive agrees with basic developing dynamics of auto industry as discussed in this forum for years,


"It's very difficult to say if we're going to have the same margins in 2025 as we had in 2015 ... because electric cars are very expensive," Chief Executive Hakan Samuelsson told Reuters on the sidelines of a safety showcase by the company in Gothenburg.

"But I would be absolute sure we will have the same margins with electric cars as we will with conventional combustion cars in 2025."

Samuelsson said the convergence would be helped by reducing costs for components such as batteries and declining margins on conventional cars.“


Volvo expects electric car margins to match conventional vehicles by 2025

Very sensible point, impressive that he sees this clearly that far. I think the conventional car company are in biggest dilemma of how aggressive they have to be in EV transition. Too fast and they can hurt their traditional business by diverting all cash flow. Too slow and they are out of business altogether. So 2025 seems a good round number...but nobody can surely say when it actually will be. If it is up to Tesla 2025 may be too late.

 

[neroden]

There have been two former Apple employees arrested by FBI for stealing self-driving related property from Apple. All two of them are arrest on their way to China to join Xpeng.

The founder of Xpeng openly admits that he's making clones. I don't think he's openly admitted that he's poaching trade secrets... but what *is* China's trade secret law anyway?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Anyone that is fighting negative opinions should think about it: what is your role in suppressing fair exchange of opinions and free speech?

Disagreeing with something is not the same as suppressing it. People calling for you to be banned from here would be “suppressing fair exchange of opinions and free speech”. Just saying “I don’t agree with you” does not rise to that level(any more than your disagreeing with them acts to silence them).

EDIT: I don’t know if this’ll be seen by those who need to see it, but:

I feel the need to add some more here. It is nobodies job here to coddle others or make them feel good about what they posted. If you post an opinion or argument, your goal should be to be proven wrong, not to just have everyone agree with you.

 

[neroden]

This is the exactly the reason I argue that Tesla can't do this alone. We need many many EVs on the road to stimulate investment on charging infrastructure. When half of the residential parking spaces have chargers, the EV market truely becomes the car market.

Well, Musk also thinks that Tesla can't do it alone. :shrug:

That said, the vast majority of people with cars have exclusive parking spaces where it's easy to install chargers. (Way more than half.)

I've gone through the data on this.

In Japan, by law you have to have a parking space in order to register a car.

In other countries, there are two populations who don't:
1 - freeloaders who park their cars in street parking (originally intended for daytime visitors) overnight, while living in houses or apartments originally designed for car-free living. This happens almost entirely in big city neighborhoods developed before automobiles. Frankly this is a pretty small fraction of the population, well under 10%, and if these areas went back to being populated by people who live car-free, everyone would be better off.
2 - people whose spaces are in large shared lots or garages while their apartments are off to one side in high-rises. It's also very feasible to install chargers in these lots, it just requires a lot more landlord interest, so it'll happen late. But it'll happen as charging becomes a desired perk. This population is also smaller than most people think.

Together, these add up to less than a quarter of people who own cars. So I just don't think it's an issue.

 

[Thekiwi]

This is pure speculation on my part, but as Tesla continues increasing production, entering more markets, and deploying more Superchargers - the company is becoming an increasing outlier in terms of being a large scale exclusively EV company.

There are plenty of other exclusively EV auto manufacturers, but none of them are at scale (except BYD), and are years away from achieving it.
There are plenty of other large scale auto companies, but none of them are anywhere near exclusively EVs and are saddled with massive ICE assets and union workforce’s.

What my point?

Tesla has turned from “potential large scale profitable automaker” to “actual large scale profitable automaker” - yet its market cap remains at a relatively small amount given the milestones it has passed.

Which makes it a very attractive proposition for a large company looking to enter the EV market in a hurry. It doesn’t matter how much money a company has, if they wanted to get to todays Tesla scale in EVs, it would take years to achieve from scratch.

In the last 9 months Tesla has removed all doubt about its feasibility and yet its market cap is lower - I don’t have any sort of inside info, but I would be shocked if there weren’t at least a few large companies (other automakers & very large cap tech) who weren’t seriously mulling either a bid or a large investment in Tesla.

It becomes probably more likely as Tesla stock price has dropped while large cap tech companies are back near all time highs, that we might see some action.

Just want to add that the outcome scenarios for any large acquirer look very attractive at present.

Worst case (unlikely):

After Tesla releases Y/Semi/pickup it can only sell 1 million units annually at a lowly $35k & 15% GM - generating $5 Billion gross margin from Automotve sales Annually

Conservative case (moderate success)

Tesla conitues growing, eventually releasing a sub $30k compact and other carmakers make the painful transition to EVs but end up keeping most of their marketshare, leaving Tesla with mid single million annual car output.

3-5 million cars @ $40k ASP & 20% GM = $18-$40 Billion in Gross Margin from Automotive sales Annually

Elon case (ballbusting Success Scenario)

10 million cars @ $42k ASP & 25% GM = $105 Billion in Gross Margin Annually

This doesn’t even include Tesla Energy & Services margin, which would likely be enough to cover company wide R&D and a significant portion of SGA. Not to mention any large acquirer probably achieves some savings from admin staff not needed. The end result is the risk reward of a large company spending ~$75-$100 Billion on acquiring Tesla (or making a smaller minority investment) looks pretty tasty.