Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

Not sure theres a correlation, but I'm not thrilled at him generally tweeting at the moment.

Elon tweeting about Wall Street is like me responding to people talking about full-self-driving and car tunnels.

Not useful, but possibly a compulsion.

 

[neroden]

On the topic of cold weather range, some of us with older model s have seen huge impacts. I visited family near Chicago this winter and had to park outside, many nights without a plug. I regularly saw half range when it was below freezing. Below 0F and I say 1/3 range. Not exaggerating

That doesn't sound right, since I have an older Model S and I've never seen less than 70% range.

You were making short trips, right? On short trips, energy usage can go up to 1300 watt-hours per mile.

 

[defc0n]

Okay which one of you owns this?

 

[neroden]

motion granted

8 pages, until tomorrow evening

JM on Twitter

Contrary to Mark B. S., this is definitely good news. Judge Nathan spent several days reviewing the outlandish case and then told Musk's lawyers to go ahead and rebut the SEC.

She knows they've already prepared the reply, so the one-day limit is to cut the extra two pages out. (She is sending a "stop being so verbose" message).

I think she's going to rebuke Musk and also rebuke the SEC and is trying to figure out how to do it.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I think this was already brought up, but how often is it that a sur-reply is granted in cases such as the one we're following with Elon/SEC?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I think car manufactures will start have a rude awakening. There's going to be a time when these car manufactures may just scrap their products all together(kind of like the Volt) when people are not buying.

A lot of talk already about how there are only so many people willing to buy electric, therefore Tesla having a demand problem. IF Tesla really have a demand problem with the most efficient, best looking, longest range, most high tech, robust charging infrastructure and a rockstar CEO behind the product, then I say goodluck to every other company that are trying to take the nonexistent marketshare.

This I feel is the final cross road for legacy car companies and it's a really tough one. Is the future electric? If the future is electric, will people buy a product at a higher price, less robust charging infrastructure and unproven less efficient power train?

IF these are computer on wheels, ask yourself when the last time a CPU brand that is SLOWER, cost MORE and incompatible with the major operating systems end up beating Intel? This simply doesn't exist because no chip manufacture would design and market such a product. It's literally suicidal.

So the legacy manufactures already lost. There's really no way around this until they jump on the tesla supercharger train and use their power trains. It's like the good old wild west of computing that every computer must be IBM compatible or else it's a dud. So the only thing they have is their ICEs to compete, hence the constant attack on electrification and Tesla. They know that Tesla have created a monster that IF the future is electric, then it has to have something "Tesla Inside"(haha tm Intel) or else you have no audience that would care.

Like how can anyone recommend an Ipace right now? The car is nicely made with good build quality but it lacks the basic fundamentals! It has less range AND a terrible charging infrastructure at 2x the cost of a Tesla. You just don't wish that on anyone because it just doesn't make sense.

I wonder if legacy automakers will use adware to try to keep prices low. At a red light “to continue driving, please enjoy this 30 second ad from our sponsors.” More likely they will just sell your driving patterns and music preferences to the highest bidder.

 

[JRP3]

So I conclude that this forum is more balanced than it used to be, but that people that are concerned are mostly silent.

So you think because more people are likely fearful as a result of the lower stock price that makes the forum balanced? I think your conclusion is in error.

MODERATOR:
This conversation has descended from an acceptable quick argument-reply-surreply to truly repetitive and vapid collective navel-gazing.

So: It ends here.

~~Vetinari~~

 

[Antares Nebula]

I am positively surprised. I didn't mince my words much, yet I got 15 disagreements, 7 likes, 3 love, 4 helpful and 2 funnies.
So it's 15 negative vs 14 (7+3+4)positives with two that can go either way, more likely negative.

But this is much different than it would have been a year or two ago, ratio would be more negative at the time. It's not my first time to go against the grain. I've gotten closer to 10:1 negative vs positive at my first gentle critique of EM, some 18-24 months ago.

Couple of conclusions from here.
While written responses were mostly negative, voting is almost a draw. it would appear that there is a very significant minority, maybe approaching half of members that support what I said, and is concerned about Tesla and Musk. And this is a silent group. Anyone that is fighting negative opinions should think about it: what is your role in suppressing fair exchange of opinions and free speech? (for the record, I want EM to get coached when discussing Tesla, not anything else). Are you a force of good when attacking others and telling them 'it's a nonsense'? Or are you enjoying this place for emotional support and don't care about information discovery?

So I conclude that this forum is more balanced than it used to be, but that people that are concerned are mostly silent. And this balancing of the forum is a concerning fact on its own. If this forum moved in more balanced direction from unquestionable support, EM is doing something wrong. Again, according to good, though minor portion of this forum. Plain and simple. (pls. remember that ratio of support for my critique of EM changed .significantly over the last couple of years)

However, there is a significant positive here too. This negative sentiment, including this forums' members, it's already reflected in SP. People are making their allocations based on their comfort levels. My ~90% of all equity allocation in TSLA of my funds, my wife's and my kids' funds is lowest I've ever been since starting to invest in TSLA. I'm not ready to go down, not yet. If anything, I increased exposure marginally over last few days by selling 2 or 3 puts short.
And we all love Tesla.
This is easily reversible, should EM choose to pay attention to it.

My thoughts on this is that we as investors need to look at the bigger picture here. We can't be greedy and just think about the stock price. And I'm not just talking about the larger environmental mission. I am talking about the human equation. We are all human beings with our own styles, peculiarities, and differences, which need to be respected. And more often than not, brilliant visionaries like Jobs, Musk, Einstein, etc. don't always follow the norms of society. We as investors can't have it both ways. We can't say, yes Elon, do your brilliant visionary thing, but please behave "normal" (if that's possible to even define). That, IMO, is impinging on his personal freedom and his ability to express himself and be himself. It is a violation of human freedom. Moreover, it may even be the case that it is impossible for him to be brilliant and visionary and "normal" at the same time. Musk is not a whore, where we can take what we want from him and disregard the rest. He is not to be shackled down, and his brilliance siphoned from him for our sole benefit. No. He is a human being, like me and you. You get the whole package, the whole human being, with all its "flaws", peculiarities, and eccentricities. And, IMO, if Tesla fails as a result of this, so be it.

This guy is brilliant and he's doing amazing things. We need to have patience and tolerance and stand with him and defend him. That's our job as investors. This is why I chafe when I hear bulls like Munster, Gerber, and Gali sometimes criticize Musk about his tweeting and other stuff (or worse, say that he should step down as CEO, while remaining the visionary chief or something). If even us bulls keep crapping on him, what do you think is gonna happen? Musk is gonna just take his foosball and go home. He doesn't have to do crap. He can just walk.

Now, he's obviously human and not perfect. But unless he's committing some serious crime, my inclination is to let him be. And of course this doesn't mean that we can't criticize Musk or Tesla. It just needs to be in a more constructive fashion. But then some of you might say what about the 420 tweet and other such nonsense. My response is that bears and bulls alike need to have a more nuanced understanding of the man. When I saw that tweet and the news, I was surprised like everyone else. But I didn't go buying additional shares or options then. In fact, I was debating selling some of my position, since the stock had a huge run up. We all know what Musk is like. Maybe it's for real, maybe it's not. It's the stock market. Anything can happen. No guarantees (you want a guarantee, go buy a bank CD). There was nothing definite there in Musk's tweet, only a possibility. No official communication from the company. No SEC filing. If some bulls bought on that news and got burned, then chalk it up to inexperience and lack of insight. Live and learn. (And really people, this stock has bounced up and down between 250 and 380 how many times now. I thought we bulls were the smart ones. Whose buying at 380 or even 350? Plenty of opportunity to buy at lower prices -- like right now!)

Okay, I could go on, but I'm tired and starting to ramble. But I feel strongly about this. But I also feel strongly about each of us, as investors and human beings also, to have the ability to express different viewpoints here at TMC and elsewhere, though we may all be bulls. I'm not at all supportive of the idea that only nice things or "correct/accepted things" can be said about Musk and Tesla here at TMC. Group thinking or herd thinking is dangerous. Musk doesn't do herd thinking (remember how he stayed on Trump's task force at the beginning even though liberals gave him heat), and neither should we. We've all, myself included, likely had a few disagreements (thumbs down) on some of our posts. And that's fine and good. All right folks, till my next ramble...

 

[neroden]

Elon's team asked for 5 days and 10 pages I believe

Effectively they got the 5 days, if you think about it.

 

[neroden]

Why would Elon say this delivery wave won’t be the same in subsequent quarters? Won’t their delivery strategy be the exact same going forward?

For one thing, it won't be such a big *change* in number of cars delivered (it'll be a repeat of Q1).

Secondly, in Q2 they might finally start to smooth out the deliveries and take the one-time "reported inventory at end of quarter" hit for it. He said they were going to do that earlier and then they didn't (I'm not entirely sure why); they might feel ready to do it.

 

[Pras]

For one thing, it won't be such a big *change* in number of cars delivered (it'll be a repeat of Q1).

Secondly, in Q2 they might finally start to smooth out the deliveries and take the one-time "reported inventory at end of quarter" hit for it. He said they were going to do that earlier and then they didn't (I'm not entirely sure why); they might feel ready to do it.

The ships may be more regular and some may be shipping already for next Q

 

[glen thomson]

Can some one please answer this . I have never taken a delivery from tesla but have seen some online, i am wondering why the majority of the explaining of how the car and touch screen works isn't explained in a video tutorial from the touch screen itself. eg if it was showing you how to turn on the fan you would here a voice directing you and where to press highlighted on the screen. Im asking this in reference to the delivery hell they keep ending up in it seems this would allow them to deliver cars much more efficiently

 

[AudubonB]

View attachment 389054

Okay which one of you owns this?

I can explain that one!

It's owned by a Vietnamese who is particularly fond of TET, the lunar HoLidAy

On edit: Oops. Got a disagree, and rightly so: Others also like the holiday. But I KNOW this guy!

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

This is pure speculation on my part, but as Tesla continues increasing production, entering more markets, and deploying more Superchargers - the company is becoming an increasing outlier in terms of being a large scale exclusively EV company.

There are plenty of other exclusively EV auto manufacturers, but none of them are at scale (except BYD), and are years away from achieving it.
There are plenty of other large scale auto companies, but none of them are anywhere near exclusively EVs and are saddled with massive ICE assets and union workforce’s.

What my point?

Tesla has turned from “potential large scale profitable automaker” to “actual large scale profitable automaker” - yet its market cap remains at a relatively small amount given the milestones it has passed.

Which makes it a very attractive proposition for a large company looking to enter the EV market in a hurry. It doesn’t matter how much money a company has, if they wanted to get to todays Tesla scale in EVs, it would take years to achieve from scratch.

In the last 9 months Tesla has removed all doubt about its feasibility and yet its market cap is lower - I don’t have any sort of inside info, but I would be shocked if there weren’t at least a few large companies (other automakers & very large cap tech) who weren’t seriously mulling either a bid or a large investment in Tesla.

It becomes probably more likely as Tesla stock price has dropped while large cap tech companies are back near all time highs, that we might see some action.

Not sure if anyone else responded to this (still 10 pages behind), but this isn't much of a speculation. VW was one of the attempted backers for taking TSLA private back at $420. If there is a chance, this lower stock price should be a great opportunity for them to try again.

Maybe, Porsche can buy up the float just like what they did with VW back then? The short-squeeze alone would make for a good short-term investment!

 

[madodel]

Referrals are back!!

Well you could have provided a link Tesla’s New Customer Referral Program

 

[neroden]

Referrals are back!!

Oh dear god. I think Tesla is unstoppable, but come on, the whipsawing is dumb.

Since this one buys two people 1000 miles of free Supercharging (costing Tesla an average of maybe $120) and one or two lottery tickets (*total* cost is limited to 12 Model Y and 4 Roadsters per year), it is certainly much more reasonable-cost than the previous program. They should check the legal rules on lotteries, though, which I suspect they didn't.

On the other incentive -- offering free Supercharging on new S & X for old owners with free Supercharging gets people to trade in their cars who had an incentive to NOT trade in their cars -- but only if they buy S & X, not Model 3. That seems like a very rational offer which costs Tesla nothing at all and encourages people to buy the more expensive cars (and Model S demand probably has peaked).

 

[neroden]

I drove my car. I used 3 miles of rated range per mile I drove it. I drove about 25 miles and used 75 miles of range.

We've explained this before. You're seeing "startup costs" -- it eats a ton of range in the first ten minutes to heat everything up, then it gets better. You can't extrapolate. If you had driven for 170 miles, you'd find that you had a lot more range than you think.

Worst case range for a trip in a older Model S is 70% of rated. Period.

If you're driving short distances and then letting the car sit parked, and repeat, you'll see much higher energy usage. rates (I've seen 1300 watt-hours/mile, which is even worse than you saw). But you'll never make it anywhere near full RANGE in one day if you're doing that, so it's not a RANGE issue.

 

[Off Shore]

Elon tweeting about Wall Street is like me responding to people talking about full-self-driving and car tunnels.

Not useful, but possibly a compulsion.

Could we move this to Slashdot so I can mark it "Insightful?"

 

[neroden]

To the owner, it doesn't matter what is causing the extra usages. The reality is that the car has less range in that weather.

False. Worst case range is 70%. With my Model S with current rated range of 253 miles, if you have to drive 177 miles, you're fine.

Sure, drive for several hours, supercharge, and you'll do better, but that isn't the point. If you live in a cold climate and do not have a garage, then less range is a reality for you every day in that weather.

I think you do not understand what "range" means. It has to do with "how far can you travel in one trip".

If you need to make seven separate 25 mile trips in one day in that sort of -10F weather without recharging in between, yes, you can't, you can only make three or four such short trips, due to startup costs.

We need a term different than "range" for this.

The range anxiety I am used to hearing about is "I have to get from point A to point B, will I have enough range".

Not "I have to make seven separate 25 mile trips in one day". I mean, I suppose that is a use case for some people, but it's not the thing I hear people worrying about.

 

[hacer]

Just bought 186 shares and now have 536 total across regular / IRA / Roth accounts. Please tell me I'm smart and this is not going to blow up in my face.

Just one warning: if you plan to do active trading rather than just buy and hold, do it in the Roth and IRA accounts but NOT your regular account. Otherwise you might mistakenly create a wash sale on which you can never recapture your loss. Bonus you also don't have short-term capital gains taxes on Roth/IRA accounts.