Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vikings123]

Wow so FactChecking is making some bold predictions, I thought the S&P was slightly priced in but not sure anymore.

“In my opinion Tesla is going to be a 2 trillion dollars company in ~5 years, which should trade at a -25% discount - I.e. at around $8,000 per share fair value today.

Instead it's trading at a 6:1 discount, which is excessive.”

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1280588929717149701?s=21

 

[Rarity]

With these stock prices and this demand for TSLA I think Tesla should do a capital raise ($10 billion?) and use that capital to build several gigafactories simultaneously and develop even more (cheaper) models. That will have the ICE manufacturers shivering.

If we get do get an unsustainable spike in share price, I would like to see a capital raise in order to reset the company's cost of capital.

For instance, the $1.8 billion big bond is callable on August 15. Given the low interest rate environment, paying 5.3% on this bond is egregiously expensive and its non-investment grade status makes the cost of capital firm-wide to be much higher than what it should be.

 

[StealthP3D]

Without a Dem landslide in November, this is no big deal at all.

Even if capital gains taxes are raised to compensate for all the spending of the current administration (by whichever party gets elected this fall), it shouldn't affect tax rates until the 2022 tax year.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Counting 1/2 home equity, I made it just over 1, and the wife's not far behind. But I still need to see a 7th digit in the account to take the lap. This is interesting, what $1M will buy you around the country. What a $1 million home looks like in 25 major American cities

If you really want to retire early, look at another country. Retiring early in Murrica is a bad idea anyways since you don't have health care unless you are employed. I'm looking for some place cheap, peaceful, and as far away from Murrica as possible.

I'm not joking when I say I'm thinking of taking a trip to the Azores to scout that place out, it's part of Portugal so it's cheap to live there and it's literally in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Seems nice but I need to go look for myself.

 

[WarpedOne]

Hint hint

 

[Motor Mouth]

If you really want to retire early, look at another country. Retiring early in Murrica is a bad idea anyways since you don't have health care unless you are employed. I'm looking for some place cheap, peaceful, and as far away from Murrica as possible.

I'm not joking when I say I'm thinking of taking a trip to the Azores to scout that place out, it's part of Portugal so it's cheap to live there and it's literally in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Seems nice but I need to go look for myself.

I'm (almost) literally with you my friend. Thinking long and hard about Portugal and Spain. Much to consider tho.

 

[ZsoZso]

I am curious:

When TSLA gets included in the S&P500 would it be prudent for Tesla just to issue shares to distribute to the funds.

A cap raise to satisfy extreme demand. Take in a lot of money for the company.

Financing of several Terafactories secured, as Tesla is very capital efficient.

Can this be done?

Probably.

Is it a good idea?

Nope! That would let the shortz escape the trap.
I want them to suffer a full-on squeeze!

 

[StealthP3D]

That's not luck, that has been F*****G HARD WORK!!!

You are making it way too hard on yourself!

Just remember, dead people perform better than the living. This is not a joke:

They found that the best performing accounts were from investors who were DEAD! In second place were investors who had FORGOTTEN they had accounts at Fidelity.

link: The Best Investors Literally Forget About Their Portfolios

 

[c041v]

Well, this stopped my heart for a second.

 

[dl003]

Well, this stopped my heart for a second.

I'm convinced that this is a orchestrated effort by the shorts to kill off bulls via digitally induced heart attacks.

 

[StealthP3D]

No. The guy who owns a billion - pencil capacity facility is worth more. Surely it's worth more than $3. Plus he need only tweak his system by a minuscule % to make more than $3 profit.

It makes you wonder why the big auto OEM's don't just "tweak" their "system" to make more than $3 dollars of profit.

It makes so much sense!

 

[Nocturnal]

Wow so FactChecking is making some bold predictions, I thought the S&P was slightly priced in but not sure anymore.

“In my opinion Tesla is going to be a 2 trillion dollars company in ~5 years, which should trade at a -25% discount - I.e. at around $8,000 per share fair value today.

Instead it's trading at a 6:1 discount, which is excessive.”

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1280588929717149701?s=21

If that is anywhere close to accurate I'll give Factchecking a big sloppy kiss. I don't even care if they are a him or her or non-binary.

 

[smorgasbord]

There's only about $3 Trillion in S&P 500 index vehicles; the rest is active funds that are benchmarked to the S&P 500. Also you have to consider that Tesla will move out of the Extended Market Index where it has about a 4% weight, and those index funds funds will be selling it. I'm guessing the index funds will need about 10 million shares net.

@truth_tesla (Tesla Facts on Twitter, aka FactChecking on TMC) agrees with my $10Trillion figure: See Tweet #5 in this thread: https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1277321864101138433

Of the global ~10 trillion dollars of investment assets benchmarked to the S&P 500, about 0.6% or ~$60b would have to purchase TSLA on inclusion, to simply become benchmark-neutral.

I couldn't find a list of all S&P 500 Index funds, only the top several. That handful alone added up to about $3Trillion of net assets, so I believe the total number is higher.

Tesla Facts added to that yesterday: https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1280244584812023808

With today's rise Tesla's free float adjusted weight in the S&P 500 would be 0.73%, so $81.5b of funds, 60m TSLA shares. But it wouldn't just be "bought", those shares would also be taken out of circulation, contracting the float.

So, my $100Billion guess should have been "only" $81Billion. And change.

Which he thinks brings us to a potential feedback loop: https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1280254379740876800

Subtract the ~25m shares locked up in other index funds, plus ~5-10m shares bought back by shorts, and the ~147m float goes down to just 50m shares ... Of which there are a lot of "won't sell below $5,000" shareholders. No telling how high this feedback loop could spiral.

 

[hobbes]

Just got a notice from ETrade that their margin requirement for TSLA has gone up from 35% to 40%.



No, that's not a doctor visit. Turns out there are 3 kinds of margin calls:

• Federal (initial)
  • Regulation T requires 50%. Only issued when trade happens. 4 business days to meet.
• Maintenance (house)
  • Whatever your brokerage (house) requires. Now for TSLA @ ETrade 40%. 5 business days to meet.
• Exchange (NYSE)
  • The NYSE requires 25%, but this is below most brokerages so you probably already had a house call. 2 days to meet.

If you don't sell something or add money in time, the brokerage will decide what to sell for you.

Are you short ?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Houses are so cheap in the US! Properties like that in Brussels would be upwards of €4m - and Brussels is cheap for Europe. London would be triple, Paris 4x and Copenhagen 5x.

€ too, not $.

But on the other hand, we don't go bankrupt from medical bills...

... and I just found a similar link for Canadian Homes. Even better!!! Oh wait, not better (Kelowna or Van area $$$).

If you really want to retire early, look at another country. Retiring early in Murrica is a bad idea anyways since you don't have health care unless you are employed. I'm looking for some place cheap, peaceful, and as far away from Murrica as possible.

I'm not joking when I say I'm thinking of taking a trip to the Azores to scout that place out, it's part of Portugal so it's cheap to live there and it's literally in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Seems nice but I need to go look for myself.

I need access to equipment and supplies to make stuff. Costa Rica is beautiful (wife is citizen), but try ordering something in from out of country - half the time it doesn't arrive. Plus, you can't find chocolate anything! Visit, rent, but not retire. I see Canada (born there) in my future. (Real healthcare.)

All depends how long I keep my prize this time. I present to you...

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, this stopped my heart for a second.

I'd be clicking on buy so fast.

 

[Mo City]

... and I just found a similar link for Canadian Homes. Even better!!! Oh wait, not better (Kelowna or Van area $$$).



I need access to equipment and supplies to make stuff. Costa Rica is beautiful (wife is citizen), but try ordering something in from out of country - half the time it doesn't arrive. Plus, you can't find chocolate anything! Visit, rent, but not retire. I see Canada (born there) in my future. (Real healthcare.)

All depends how long I keep my prize this time. I present to you...
View attachment 561710

OT: My understanding is many U.S. retirees in CR catch a flight to DFW or IAH 2-3 times/year and return will full suitcases to fill in those gaps. Not all that expensive to do so.

 

[Krugerrand]

And now it’s been open how long? And the SP is what? Like I said, taking a breather. The gyrations are noise. There will be no 10%+ move today as the market tries to use macros and money and the kitchen sink to control TSLA.

Nailed it.

 

[Krugerrand]

Spike!
Dip.
Spike!
Walk it dooooooown all afternoon.

Same thing, different day. And they wonder why this loaded spring periodically explodes.

It really was all over today. On steroids for sure! They’re having a hard time controlling it. I think it gets easier for them tomorrow and as the week progresses, unless Elon drops another fashion statement bomb.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Well, this stopped my heart for a second.

Buying opportunity!