Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Open Interest]

Here's a Permalink, much easier than listing individual settings.

Cheers!

Cool! Thank you.

 

[Green Pete]

1. I've only taken a cursory glance at the tax implications online because it seems pretty straight forward for someone in my position (I only gross about $70k/yr). The burden isn't high as far as I can tell, and the way I look at it is I don't mind paying taxes if I'm making money, that's just life. Is there some unusual hidden tax related to day trading that is esoteric and/or difficult to uncover?
2. I'm slowly learning about technical analysis, it's a slow and unending process. As for "unusual options activity" how does one go about finding that out? How is that info accessed? I don't have a Bloomberg terminal...
3. Thank you. I'll look for the trading thread.

Wash sales can come as a shock if you don't know what they are.

Wash sale - Wikipedia

And of course if you are in California:
California's 13.3% Tax On Capital Gains Inspires Move Then Sell Tactics

 

[StealthP3D]

No way. People in Home Depot are required to wear masks. I just heard that most airlines are requiring passengers to wear masks only while boarding.

And then this might happen:

That's pretty sick (pun intended). I imagine the more people that see that video, the more slowly global CO2 levels will rise.

 

[CaliBear1]

I’m a little behind, but I don’t even care if this has previously been posted!

 

[joh01652]

Wash sales can come as a shock if you don't know what they are.

Wash sale - Wikipedia

And of course if you are in California:
California's 13.3% Tax On Capital Gains Inspires Move Then Sell Tactics

I was warned about wash sales early on. The thing is I'm neither clever enough to do it, and even if I were I wouldn't risk being caught for what seems to me to be a form of tax evasion. In any event, I'm not rich enough or smart enough to make a technique like that work in my favor.

I have never lost money on a margin trade yet (although I've only been at this for a couple months)--and even if the SP plummets $100+ immediately after a purchase I'll simply hold until the SP rises back up to the level where I bought in.

And if I get a margin call, well that's my own dumb fault and I'll have the money to pay the price.

I don't live in CA.

Thank you for messaging.

 

[Mo City]

That's pretty sick (pun intended). I imagine the more people that see that video, the more slowly global CO2 levels will rise.

I'm an airline guy. Furloughed May 1st.

My industry is cooked. It will take years to recover, particularly international travel. People here think the oil & gas industry is in trouble. COVID-19 put airlines in a much worse position. October 1st, 2020 will go down in infamy for U.S. carriers unless a miracle happens.

 

[ggr]

I was warned about wash sales early on. The thing is I'm neither clever enough to do it, and even if I were I wouldn't risk being caught for what seems to me to be a form of tax evasion. In any event, I'm not rich enough or smart enough to make a technique like that work in my favor.

I have never lost money on a margin trade yet (although I've only been at this for a couple months)--and even if the SP plummets $100+ immediately after a purchase I'll simply hold until the SP rises back up to the level where I bought in.

And if I get a margin call, well that's my own dumb fault and I'll have the money to pay the price.

I don't live in CA.

Thank you for messaging.

Wash sale never works to the advantage of the individual. It basically means that you can't claim a legitimate loss on your tax at the time it occurred. So it isn't tax evasion, it's the IRS evading your right to pay less tax.

 

[Buckminster]

So anyone want to change their votes on what will be unveiled at battery day following today's CATL / Reuters rumours?
Poll - Battery Day Bingo
3 days until it closes.

V2G only got 27% positive vote.
No modules only got 49% positive vote.

Discussion thread:
Tesla Battery Investor Day

SpaceX launch scheduled for May 27. Battery day needs to be on the 22nd May at the latest. If Elon doesn't announce in the next few days it is looking like a delay to June.

 

[skybluecgreen]

So I'll back up and say the reason Deutsche Bank wrote this report was because they hosted Martin Viecha of Tesla for investor meetings. These takeaways are coming from the conversations between him, Emmanuel Rosner (DB's analyst) and investors. Emmanuel Rosner is just reporting what was discussed. Whether he believes all of this and will factor it into their model is a completely different question.

On Battery Day, my personal opinion is that I would rather have Elon wait until analysts/investors can participate in person. I think that would have a bigger impact in terms of coverage and stock reaction.

That's a bummer about battery day. This will be at least the 4th postponement (Summer 2019, April, May, ?) Of course we all know they will reveal great, 'mind blowing' progress but expectations keep growing and by the time it happens the impact on the share price will be minimal. I see no reason the analysts/investors need to be there in person.

 

[heltok]

I think you misread that. The note says Deutsche Bank wishes that battery day would be delayed so they could attend in person.

Elon said they want to get the timing just right. Not sure waiting for investors is a large concern.

Even if they delay Battery Day I think this would be bullish for the stock. Sure battery day is great for me, I want to hear it, it will be great for the stock price, it will be great for the world, we can move away from fossil fuel faster when it’s so obv that BEV is the future. W

But it is also a show and tell day where they will give the competition the correct answer and give the Chinese copycats instructions for how to start competing with Tesla. Every day they delay telling the rest of the world is another day of day of headstart they will have. They could just start building the Terafactory and when they are ready to start hiring they could have the battery day as a recruitment day.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Battery day is being pushed to next month, but also possibly split into two parts. Web-broadcast, and an in person in Julyish.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

No more groundhog day. Discussion #9 on Elon’s take on corona deaths has been moved to the corona thread.

 

[CorneliusXX]

That's a bummer about battery day. This will be at least the 4th postponement (Summer 2019, April, May, ?) Of course we all know they will reveal great, 'mind blowing' progress but expectations keep growing and by the time it happens the impact on the share price will be minimal. I see no reason the analysts/investors need to be there in person.

While battery day is going to be fantastic and there are plenty of unknowns, I think there are enough leaks out there now via multiple avenues (Patents, job hires, talks from insiders, research from limiting factor youtube channel, leaks from Soylent brown) that we can broadly know what is going to happen.

Tesla is going to make their own cells with 4 major improvements:

• No tabs - increasing battery current significantly
• DBE - increasing current, storage and reducing cost
• New electrolyte/s - increasing energy density and longevity of cells, along with cold weather performance
• single crystal tech - increasing energy density and longevity of cells

The big unknowns are just how much more energy dense and cheaper are these cells, and how fast can they scale.

It's also pretty safe to say that these cells will bring EVs to at least cost parity with ICE vehicles and unlock a cheap 4th gen vehicle along with CT, Roadster and Semi.

What I am really curious to know is what the other flow on effects from battery day will be. A couple of highly speculative examples:

• If the batteries are sufficiently energy dense (rumour 500Wh/kg) that they can be used for planes, what will happen to Boeing and Airbus? Demand is nearly at 0 for new planes and passenger numbers are unlikely to reach old highs for years. Will remaining alirines just ride their current fleet longer and wait for new tech? the quietness and operating costs of a batter powered plane will obsolete substantial segments of current fuel powered planes
• Same with energy storage - If cells are cheap enough that the grid can rapidly scale to multiple hours/days of energy storage then will we see a faster acceleration to solar/wind installation and grid storage while knocking out the reaming coal/gas/nuclear power plants.

 

[saniflash]

even if the SP plummets $100+ immediately after a purchase I'll simply hold until the SP rises back up to the level where I bought in.

have also been swing trading lately, what I do in these cases is to start selling covered calls on top

 

[Quesder]

Wash sales can come as a shock if you don't know what they are.

Wash sale - Wikipedia

And of course if you are in California:
California's 13.3% Tax On Capital Gains Inspires Move Then Sell Tactics

Man that makes more and more sense for Elon to move out California. Sell houses, move HQs...
So that his billions of followers compensation in the future will not be taxed by California

 

[UncaNed]

So allow me a moment of ignorant over simplification if I may. I make no secret of the fact that I am an investment dullard. You could fit all of my stock market knowledge on the head of a pin and still have room for a gigafactory. I am a buy and hold kind of guy because I wouldn't begin to have enough knowledge to try the day trade/margins/puts/calls approach.

That said, is it an oversimplification to state that Tesla seems to have solidified it's overall trajectory in the minds of most people and the market in general, and now more or less rides on the whims of the macros? Yes, when battery day, new products, and new facilities come to pass it will only solidify the overall direction the company is going, but barring the %5 swings that seem to be the norm for this stock, it seems like this is pretty much a done deal. AKA, steady climb over the next several years with bumps in the road due to macro craziness.

Stating the obvious?
Way too over simplified?

Educate me.

Dan

I, likewise, should be one of the last folks on this forum to give advice, but IMHO you're description is correct only if your "bumps in the road" include more TSLA price to drops below $400 at some point(s) in 2020 just like it did less than 2 months ago. Could you weather an actual recession so bad that it stays below $400 for a year or more? Our economic and political situation is shakier than I've seen in my lifetime, no telling with this election cycle, pandemic, and unprecedented series of economic stimuli - all in a world of misreported by our most misleading news system ever - will happen, but it will probably not go smoothly.

In my extremely short investing career (all TSLA shares & LEAPs, the only options I've managed to wrap my mind around), I've done well beyond my wildest dreams despite stumbling into a margin situation on my taxed account (only acceptable IF you have the liquid resources to pay it off on a moments notice).

But I'm utterly floored by the childlike, distorted time frame of our short-term expectations. Will stock price likely rise to $4,000? Yeah, eventually, but if it stagnates for weeks in the $500's, revisits the $200's and $420 several times on the way there I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. Are you saving enough cash to take advantage of such buying opportunities?

So expect your 5% swings, and allow for the occasional stock price rogue wave and rogue trough (at 13:35).

And your profits need to be in your Roth IRA account as much as possible.

Much thanks to all those who post useful info here.

Not advice.

 

[bhtooefr]

Wash sale never works to the advantage of the individual. It basically means that you can't claim a legitimate loss on your tax at the time it occurred. So it isn't tax evasion, it's the IRS evading your right to pay less tax.

Disclaimer: I am not a tax professional.

Although, as long as an IRA isn't involved, the wash sale rules should not increase your overall tax burden (over the entire holding period of the stock), and may in fact reduce it below what it would be without the wash sale rules.

That's because, if you sell a security at a loss, and either bought its replacement within 30 days before or after that sale, the loss can't be claimed, but it can be added to the cost basis of the replacement purchase (unless the replacement purchase was in an IRA, in which case it can't be).

How this can lower your overall tax burden relative to the situation before the wash sale rules is... the holding time of the original security is also added to the replacement security, meaning that repeatedly wash selling can in fact push short-term holdings into long-term capital gains.

Personally, as I'm not trading in an IRA, I don't actually care about the wash sale rules. Yes, they can affect me, but it all, well, washes out in the end.

 

[Tslynk67]

Jeeze, pre-market volume incredibly low so far - will pick up in 20 minutes when they let retail in.

$790 close I think today, which suits me purrfectly.

Ha ha, there you go, hedge-fund dropping pre-market negative to try and spook retail

Edit: think I was wrong about the hedge-funds sticking it to $TSLA, looks like futures fell from +0.5% to -1.5%

 

[ZachF]

That is exactly how I see things, people in the Tesla bubble have a better idea of what to expect for battery day...

The only significance is people outside the Tesla bubble are realising Battery Day may be significant, and speculating, sometimes with comic results.

As a rough rule GF1 35GWh = 500 cars. 30 x 35 = 1,050 GWh so 1 TWh

Newer packs will probably average 100 KWh so IMO 120 GWh = 1 Million cars

1 TWh would build 8.3 Million cars but I can't see Tesla ever building 8 million cars from a single factory, the maximum size I expect would be 2-3 Million. The rest must be for energy storage... possibly an approximate 40/60 split...

We can work out the factory size from that guess but it isn't 30X GF1.

I might be wrong, but I'll probably be more right than Bloomberg.

Semis will need a ~1MWh battery.

Cybertruck will probably have 200KWh batteries at the highest option, probably larger in the future.

Energy storage will need a few TWh per year in the US if we want full renewables and assume a ~10y lifespan.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Not sure if this was reported: 6.4 earthquake in Nevada close to the California border. No word on Tesla impact.... looks far enough from Sparks and Fremont but I am neither local nor a geologist.

Apologies for my crude mapping skills. Tried to roughly put the 2 sites on the map I found on CNN: