Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I was actually referring to your profile picture, not the content of your posts

I often skim over a lot of posts depending on how much time I have in the morning, but I usually enjoy the posts by you that I do read

Ohhhhhhhh....awkward. Okay, you should probably get up late tomorrow morning and skip a lot of posts, especially if they’re mine.

Nobody is feeling the Russian cat.

 

[EinSV]

So if a banned troll is nice about violating the rules again and puts in a lot of effort it's OK? This was his typical false concern trolling and he disrupted the forum for months, there was nothing in his post which was worthwhile.

I'm old enough to remember the main investor thread getting derailed over and over again, culminating in this completely inane thread:

Myusername and numerology thread (out of market action)

 

[Mo City]

Anyone get the feeling Elon is going to make Giga/Tera Texas announcement next week? At that point he’ll have full freedom to continue to operate in Fremont, he can essentially for the first time make plans regarding Tesla’s future as this gives him a timeline and it’s pretty clear the offers have been flying in all week.

- I expect he’ll make good on his promise to move HQ
- Texas seems obvious.
- battery day will get a finalized date
- I also expect a Tesla HVAC home system to be announced soon as he’s been dropping hints on this recently (following Q2 earnings)

News should be coming in hard and fast once Fremont is back to full production.

The only one of these I see possibly happening next week is a date for Battery Day.
I realize Elon is the king of multitasking, but once we get past Starlink-7, I think his main focus becomes Demo-2. It will take a while to finalize an agreement on Tera Texas.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Part of me feels like Battery Day isn't happening next week because we would have gotten a date by now and the county drama hasn't let them plan it.

The other part of me thinks that they might not actually need to give much heads up like events in the past. Its not like journalists, analysts, and investors can actually travel to go in person. Even if it were to happen in June, they still wouldn't be able to have people there like attend like previous events. So in reality, they only need to give a 2 or 3 days heads up/invitation to the streamed event.

 

[MC3OZ]

As I've stated before, it makes economic sense to move production out of Calif. I think the idea of Tesla winding down Fremont is not fresh. I'm sure Shanghai opened their eyes to how much better building cars can be anywhere but CA. I don't think the state really wants much manufacturing of the type that other states allow with little oversight. So, it makes economic sense to move where you can operate more cheaply.

Semiconductors, aircraft, defense electronics, woosh, outtahere.
It's funny that this flight of manufacturing from CA has been going on since the 70's and economy is still strong, house prices ridiculous and freeways jammed.
It's an interesting tension for the company though. Despite all the wind power, Texas has the worst greenhouse emissions of any state and that doesn't take into account all the leaking methane (they don't allow site monitoring). I doubt greenhouse gas emissions are decreasing in Texas. California's per capita CO2 is among the lowest in the country. Although total is still high, the state is committed to lowering CO2. This doesn't just happen, there's been energy efficiency rules for decades in CA. Musk used to support a carbon tax. I'm unsure how popular that would be in Texas.

It's a nice fantasy that my future Teslas will continue to be made in my state but what I want most is 10 million new ICE cars displaced per year by clean EVs in this country. We need that ASAP and if Texas Teslas are the quickest way for that to happen then so be it. I'll buy one from Texas. I'll even go to Texas to pick it up so the auto dealers can see how it's done.
Austin has the third best Mexican food anywhere (c'mon you know New Mexico is #1).

Most likely any change will be gradual and logical.

In 5 years time there is a good chance Fremont is still operating making Model S/X and Roadster, things like the seat factory have been relocated the main Fremont site and all other GFs have their own seat factory.

Good chance Tesla also employs a lot of software/hardware engineers in California, and perhaps the Autopilot software team is still in the same building.

Some staff have taken the option to move to Texas, others have stayed in California, some have retired, or got a job elsewhere.

Perhaps Fremont is an incubator for new product lines, like domestic and industrial lighting, when a line is successful it is spun off into a purpose built factory.

So there is no real drama, Elon need to make it look dramatic for political reasons, and that was very successful.

 

[Zero CO2]

I'm not going to get into the 'were Elon's tweets/bargaining approach good or not' debate again (I've said my piece on that topic, and I believe you and I would find ourselves closer to agreement on it than you might think). But I wanted to pull this line out, as I've seen it mentioned before, often said in a derogatory way by folks who don't completely 'get' the mission. I want to point out that it is absolutely the case that Tesla will do what's necessary to achieve their end goal of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy (née transport), even if it involves stepping on toes. Anyone's toes. Including current and past supporters.

Further, it's pretty clear that this is the correct approach. It's not too much to say that as goes Tesla, so goes a significant chunk of the planet's odds of mitigating climate change to any reasonable degree. They must succeed, even if we don't always like every step in that journey.

I don't think they are callous about it, nor do I believe they'd toss supporters aside blithely. But climate change is a Big Deal™, and there's very little that competes with it in terms of long-term importance.

Summary the mission is too important for cry babies ... so get on board or get out of the way

 

[Artful Dodger]

Fremont could become the manufacturing engineering dream world. Few actual line workers since robots would start taking over every position. Engineers would far outnumber the line workers as they play with ideas on how to give robot hands better than humans

The only thing I would add to this is:

• Insert Neuralink sensor into the brain of an already trained Production Associate
• Record their brain while doing each task
• Use the brain traces to train the robot AI
• Replace line worker with robot
• Replace wages with UBI

Sounds somewhat sad on the face of it, but it does free up human lifetimes for creativity and expanded learning, while freeing them from drudgery.

 

[MC3OZ]

Hey! I’m good at three things, that’s kind of like running three companies.

Half the people like me when I do this:

View attachment 541439

Half the people like me when I do this:

View attachment 541440

And the other half would like me to do this:
View attachment 541441

That last one needs some cat food ...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone get the feeling Elon is going to make Giga/Tera Texas announcement next week? At that point he’ll have full freedom to continue to operate in Fremont, he can essentially for the first time make plans regarding Tesla’s future as this gives him a timeline and it’s pretty clear the offers have been flying in all week.

- I expect he’ll make good on his promise to move HQ
- Texas seems obvious.
- battery day will get a finalized date
- I also expect a Tesla HVAC home system to be announced soon as he’s been dropping hints on this recently (following Q2 earnings)

News should be coming in hard and fast once Fremont is back to full production.

After the Earning Call, Elon said to expect an announcement in 1-3 mth. The drama in Fremont over the past week has not likely sped up that timeframe. There are legal arrangement, contracts, and understandings to put in place b4 he goes public.

Its a good sign that he was talking with the Gov'n of Texas yesterday though. In fact, he's got a massive twitter follwing of State Govn'rs now, including Colorado.

Cheers!

 

[Zero CO2]

Does anyone here have book recommendations so I could learn about options? All this options talk is foreign to me, and now that I have some free time coming up I'd like to learn about options trading, as well as how market makers influence/manipulate stock prices.

Thanks.

If you have TD Ameritrade account they have a good options training class on the site ... with tests and paper money platform.. i am taking the class right now it seems pretty good ... i would assume other platforms have similar education on options

BTW I have no current plans to do covered calls or cash secured puts etc ... but want to learn the options market to help my long term purchases...

 

[Zero CO2]

CNBC - this morning:

i found this so interesting "Elon is a man on a mission" they keep stating it but they still don't get it ...
he is on a mission exactly right ....read the mission statement you dolts ... these folks are supposed to be financial/business reporters i guess they skipped mission statements/business plans in business school

every day Tesla is not making cars is another day the mission is not accomplished ... yes god d%#$it he is on a mission... our lives depend on it and i believe that is how EM looks at it

 

[Krugerrand]

That last one needs some cat food ...

Um...don’t think cat food is going to be very helpful. But I love your glass is half full.

 

[HG Wells]

OH, God I pitty you.
Having to take care of Trumps toupee every night.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Um...don’t think cat food is going to be very helpful. But I love your glass is half full.

You found Mike Score's cat!

 

[Krugerrand]

OH, God I pitty you.
Having to take care of Trumps toupee every night.

View attachment 541545

Look at my face. Do I look amused?

Nobody liked the Russian cat so I went for the American one. I’m going to buy a TSLA share for every time someone accuses me of being a Republican, Trump supporter, gun-shop owner, coal miner etc...since the demand shares are really slow in accumulating - I’m at 10 and we’re halfway through the quarter. Seriously disappointed in people.

 

[woof]

Nobody is feeling the Russian cat.

Two can play that game.

 

[HG Wells]

AH, trying to infiltrate a rats nest.

 

[Krugerrand]

Two can play that game.

I feel like I won. But you should get a participation ribbon.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I must have missed your buy signal today. Sheesh! I'm leaving a lot of money on the table! Wait a minute! That's only a delta of $70/share (when executed almost perfectly), well below the 10% gains you dangled in front of me!

Yes, you likely missed the signal. TSLA exceeded the Upper-BB SP (840.73) just before 2020-05-12 11-06 hrs: (SP climbed just +$2.56 above that tgt SP to $843.29 by 11:20 am @ for the intraday High)


TSLA then descended to the Middle-BB by 2020-05-13 12:20 hrs:


BTW, even at 09:30 hrs this morning, the Middle-BB was at $764.93 (that SP was reached at some point during the 12:20 minute (the exact low SP was $764.30)

BONUS Points: Notice that on Tue, at the moment the SP hit the Upper-BB, the MIDDLE-BB was exactly $762.00 forming the basic parameters for a swing trade. How's that for 'clairvoyance'?

In summary, that's 25 hrs from High to Low, almost exactly matching the Upper- and Middle-BBs in time and price.

That's 840.73/764.93 = +9.91% meaning each 10 shares spawn an addtional share (plus a few extra to cover the croupier's take).

That's a swing trade. IMHO, risks are:

• FOMO:
  • do this while you're ahead, so you don't feel rushed
  • don't bet the House; but bet enough so each swing nets a share when it executes
  • work in multiples of your base trade, until you can increment the base
    
  • if you have more available, constrain the range of the swing required to make a share (a 82% rge hits quite often, but does requires a 22% larger trade (ie: 13 shares spawn 1 today)
  • example: initiated today @ $820 while still anticpating a move to the Middle-BB, you would need to swing trade 40% more shares then when initiated at the Upper-BB, or 14 shares (+ fees) to spawn 1 share. Obvious multiples would then be 15 shares, 30, 60, etc. to spawn 1, 2, or 4 shares depending on your available capital/shares.
• INTERNET/PWR failure:
  • you can enter your SELL/BUY orders at the same time, in advance, based on the trading channel (modify as needed during normal operations, or just constrain your req'd rge)
    
  • get a UPS + desktop PC / have a Cell Phone app
• Black Swans:
  • yeah, you gotta expect 'em esp. w. TSLA (comes w. territory)
  • keep a long-term perspective (don't panic)
  • remain disciplined (tanked SP will recover, rockets will land)
  • it's "reversion to the trend", and "the trend is your friend"

I have all the spreadsheets from NASDAQ/EDGAR for yesterday/today if you'd like to see more data.

Cheers!

 

[Open Interest]

Look at my face. Do I look amused?

Nobody liked the Russian cat so I went for the American one. I’m going to buy a TSLA share for every time someone accuses me of being a Republican, Trump supporter, gun-shop owner, coal miner etc...since the demand shares are really slow in accumulating - I’m at 10 and we’re halfway through the quarter. Seriously disappointed in people.

Coal miner???