Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Reminder of this gem of a piece by Ark Invest from a couple weeks back. The title says it all, really.

The Coronavirus: Innovation Gains Traction During Tumultuous Times

Innovation Gains Traction During Tumultuous Times

During the worst financial crisis of our lifetimes, innovation gained more traction than most investors had anticipated. Companies offering faster, cheaper, more cost effective, and creative products/services gained significant share. During the GFC, Software-as-a-Service and online retail were prime beneficiaries. As technology budgets were cut by 20-30% in and around 2008-09, for example, during its worst quarter Salesforce.com chalked up a 20% increase in revenues. At the same time, while retail sales were falling, Amazon delivered 14% growth during its worst quarter.23

In the early days of a bear market, while innovation does gain traction, the stocks associated with disruptive innovation tend to underperform. In a risk-off environment, benchmark sensitive investors sell innovation-oriented stocks as they seek “safety” in the benchmarks against which they are measured.

 

[PlaidCPA]

Is anyone else disappointed we don't know how many Model Ys were produced and delivered? or China breakout

 

[Nocturnal]

I think these results tell us that w/o the virus, it would have been an amazing quarter well beyond expectations. It also tells us demand is still really high and that there will be a lot of pent up demand once the virus has passed and the economy starts up again

If the virus had not happened we would probably be crossing over 1k now or with earnings. These low SPs are frustrating but I think there will be even less competition when the dust settles. No way GM will spend those billions on EVs now and the start up threats will be set back.

Obviously this is bad for the planet but good for my retirement.

 

[dl003]

Is anyone else disappointed we don't know how many Model Ys were produced and delivered? or China breakout

Oh we know all about the China breakout

 

[Boomer19]

Well I grabbed a couple last minute $500 calls for tomorrow, we shall see. I think there's enough confidence and floating money out there that a good/great report shoot us to nearly $600 tomorrow. Obviously it'll then be whittled back down to $550 over the next two weeks.

People are still waiting for an entry point, can see this pandemic isn't gonna kill 2M or even 1/4M Americans, and know there are major positive triggers around the corner. If I were out, a good delivery report might get me in.

We tend to get way too negative and emotional here when on any extended slow burn downward. Fingers crossed.

nice call!
i converted some shares to a couple 600c leaps at eod as well

 

[LN1_Casey]

Is anyone else disappointed we don't know how many Model Ys were produced and delivered? or China breakout

Maybe with the ER they'll detail this information.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

whata wild ride. would love to see 550$ tomorrow

We were at $538 Tuesday, don't fall for the Chanos smoke and mirrors. This stock and company are known to be in SIGNIFICANTLY better shape right now than Tuesday.

Tomorrow's ceiling is more like $650 than $550.

 

[kengchang]

Montana Skeptic on Autoline Afterhour...LOOOL not gonna watch at all

 

[Prunesquallor]

If the virus had not happened we would probably be crossing over 1k now or with earnings. These low SPs are frustrating but I think there will be even less competition when the dust settles. No way GM will spend those billions on EVs now and the start up threats will be set back.

Obviously this is bad for the planet but good for my retirement.

Really think that electric Cadillacs, Hummers and Origins would be good ideas? A waste of batteries, I say. Hardly anyone would buy them, and those that did would be left with a bad impression of EVs.

 

[Zero CO2]

Reminder of this gem of a piece by Ark Invest from a couple weeks back. The title says it all, really.

The Coronavirus: Innovation Gains Traction During Tumultuous Times

Yup this is the " innovators dilemma" on steroids .. the OEMs have been slowly dying but with good economy it drags on ... the tumult is accelerates the dilemma for the OEMs .. OEMs dilemma : "how do I invest going forward with a tighter capital constraint.... and now a ton of unsold inventory"

 

[sparcs]

Will Tesla be the only large automaker with almost no inventory by the end of April? The gap between production and deliveries was not that large. Every other automaker will have parking lots full of vehicles rusting away.

It's going to suck that Fremont isn't running, but it's not so bad when you put things in perspective.

 

[dl003]

This does not change my outlook for Tesla one bit but damn it feels good.
Ford Q1 Year on Year sales down 12.5%
GM down 7%
Fiat Chrysler down 10%
Porsche down 20%
Tesla up 36%

 

[ggr]

Is anyone else disappointed we don't know how many Model Ys were produced and delivered? or China breakout

The more detail Tesla gives, the more the shorties cherry-pick something to criticize. "Oh, they had a whole new factory... the old factory is down 30% y-o-y!". Just the minimum facts are fine by me, thank you.

 

[ggr]

Will Tesla be the only large automaker with almost no inventory by the end of April? The gap between production and deliveries was not that large. Every other automaker will have parking lots full of vehicles rusting away.

It's going to suck that Fremont isn't running, but it's not so bad when you put things in perspective.

No, the other makers' dealers will have those cars. They get to fudge the figures for a while longer yet.

 

[Vad42]

Here's a best news yet. My favorite contrarian indicator (Mr. B.S.) just added to his short at $514. This is going to be the new "B.S. bottom"... It's on twitter, but I won't link to it.

 

[winfield100]

Anyone watch the ARK invest webcast today?

 

[Prunesquallor]

A momentous day. Because *I* timed the dip today. There truly IS a first time for everything.

 

[adiggs]

Notice that TSLA had opportunity to adjust full year guidance in this letter - but didnt.

I wouldn't read much into that. I agree that it's good, but Tesla has the financial results to announce in a few weeks, and that's when I would ordinarily expect them to make adjustments to annual guidance. So they're not rushing to make adjustments, but it seems like they historically keep the P&D report as short and simple as possible.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

These are very good numbers, especially when you consider that Tesla is optimizing their lines with this downtime, but I'm wondering if it's enough to overpower the shorties this week with the likely still largely unsettled market.

Funny how a little good news shines a light on something I didn't even think of.

The legacy automakers get a tiny advantage of a financial bailout in a time when they don't want to be producing.

Tesla gets to do what was likely some much needed retooling/optimizing AND will get some forms of bailout.

 

[Zero CO2]

This does not change my outlook for Tesla one bit but damn it feels good.
Ford Q1 Year on Year sales down 12.5%
GM down 7%
Fiat Chrysler down 10%
Porsche down 20%
Tesla up 36%

the people have spoken .. they are tired of a polluted planet and are finally taking corrective action ... this will continue ...