Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gerebgraus]

I'm following Karen on twitter as I'm sure are many others, if she posts something relevant, I will post it here if others don't.

what is her handle?

 

[MC3OZ]

what is her handle?

Nafnlaus (@enn_nafnlaus) | Twitter

 

[vikings123]

Based on posts on these forums and twitter, it appears Tesla is calling customers to check if they would be interested in switching color for their orders and would like to pick up in the next couple of days. Looks like blue is available. It’s probably based on local in inventory. No discounts

I think this is another strong signal that deliveries are going just fine and this is all about Tesla proactively looking for ways to get them to owners who might otherwise change their mind.

 

[mongo]

Not that Tesla had gone in years due to the dealership issue, but the North American International Auto Show has been cancelled. FEMA is taking over the site for at least 6 months as a hospital for Detroit Covid-19 cases.
2020 NAIAS cancelled as TCF Center becomes temporary hospital

 

[abasile]

Has this been discussed (missed a few pages...) - HW upgrades happening in Europe !
OP is from UK, in the replies there is someone from Poland...
UK HW3 upgrades are now being booked in : teslamotors

Might this suggest they were successful with convincing EU regulators to relax rules? Or at least there will be new features coming allowing Tesla to realize FSD revenue. Excited (even if it will only allow me to visualize trash cans for now )

My understanding is that Tesla has had shortages of HW3 chips due to Covid19-related supply chain disruptions. Perhaps this situation has improved. We are still waiting for Tesla to schedule the HW3 upgrade on our Model 3, which we purchased with FSD in September 2018. Other customers have recently taken delivery of brand new Tesla vehicles and then found that they have HW2.5 and not HW3. While it's not a big deal for us to wait for HW3, I'm hoping that the supply of HW3 chips/boards will catch up so that Tesla won't disappoint any more customers by delivering new cars with HW2.5.

 

[EVNow]

Luxury car sales are usually less affected by a crisis than other car sales. This is another reason (among many others) as to why Tesla will be impacted less.

In past recessions, sales of luxury cars held on

Hmmm ...

Luxury sales were off 34.2% vs. 31% for the broader passenger car market.
​

Moreover - with 3 & Y - we are certainly looking at a lot of people who are not usual luxury car buyers to upgrade from their Camry or Rav4.

 

[EVNow]

You are not understanding what I’m trying to say here. I am not arguing that people won’t cancel or delay orders.

I’m saying the number of people who cancel or delay their orders IMO will be less than the lowered production because of factory shutdown. Therefore, there will not be a demand problem for Tesla.

In other words, production capacity will still be lower than their order book.

I understood what you were trying to say.

Production will go down by x%.

Demand will go down by y%.

Your contention is x% > y%.

My question is - what is your basis for saying that. I see y% > x% as equally likely. Or rather - I have no way to conclude one way or another. We simply don't have any data to base this on … that's the reason I'm not updating my production/delivery or financial forecasts.

Hopefully with Q1 P&D, we get some useful numbers as well as clear guidance. ER should be interesting, though.

ps : The main reason is that - we don't know what will happen with Covid and the economy. There are various optimistic and pessimistic projections - but its still hazy. We are within the thick fog of war.

 

[MC3OZ]

I understood what you were trying to say.

Production will go down by x%.

Demand will go down by y%.

Your contention is x% > y%.

My question is - what is your basis for saying that. I see y% > x% as equally likely. Or rather - I have no way to conclude one way or another. We simply don't have any data to base this on … that's the reason I'm not updating my production/delivery or financial forecasts.

I see production x% = x1% (Tesla) + x2% (others)

I see x2% > x1% short term... all car makers have production problems, others more so than Tesla..

On that basis x% >= y%....

The fall back position is Tesla will not allow too much inventory to stockpile and shift the mix/markets to optimise as far as possible...

This kind of speculation is impossible to get right, there are so many variables and unknowns, it is almost pointless to even try to make a prediction.

 

[EVNow]

I see production x% = x1% (Tesla) + x2% (others)

I see x2% > x1% short term... all car makers have production problems, others more so than Tesla..
On that basis x% >= y%....

y is really an independent variable here. I don't see how x2% > x1% leads to x% > y%.

This kind of speculation is impossible to get right, there are so many variables and unknowns, it is almost pointless to even try to make a prediction.

+1.

 

[PeterJA]

I've opined before that this assumption is incorrect if Tesla continues growing production exponentially, which could be capitalized by huge profits from Tesla Network. Now it is clear that Tesla is our only hope, among American automakers, of flattening the CO2 curve. (sorry if the following was already posted and discussed)



To reduce emissions, legacy automakers must do more than make EVs. They must make EVs that can compete with Tesla EVs. GM and Ford now seem to understand that they can't do that, so they are "betting their short-term future" on planet-killing old tech. They are caught in the Innovator's Dilemma and likely won't survive in the long term, so they are profiting all they can from the short term.

Tesla's tech is way ahead and likely will stay that way. Think about what that means. It means Tesla will continue selling every car they can make, and will continue taking market share from ICE cars. By 2026, Tesla will make as many vehicles as GM and Ford do now, and these old giants will be shrunken or gone.

Steven Ryan's latest entertaining video is about that Reuters article on the plans of GM and Ford. He mentions one possibility that I didn't think of: maybe the article is false and sandbagging their EV plans. Could GM and Ford be that smart and devious? I can believe devious...

 

[gene]

The California 101 goes right through Santa Barbara. It is very common to see transport trucks loaded with Tesla's heading south towards Los Angeles. In the last few days I have seen this odd occurrence twice, and that is a transport truck (twice now) heading north on the 101, full of Tesla's, mostly Model 3's. It makes me cringe as the only conclusions I can think of they are cancellations. Or then, to be most generous, maybe since the factory is closed they are sold somewhere to the north such as the Bay Area and Tesla needs to simply relocate them. In any event, this moving Model 3's was not planned.

Any other ideas why Model 3's would be moved from the LA area heading north?

 

[Green Pete]

The California 101 goes right through Santa Barbara. It is very common to see transport trucks loaded with Tesla's heading south towards Los Angeles. In the last few days I have seen this odd occurrence twice, and that is a transport truck (twice now) heading north on the 101, full of Tesla's, mostly Model 3's. It makes me cringe as the only conclusions I can think of they are cancellations. Or then, to be most generous, maybe since the factory is closed they are sold somewhere to the north such as the Bay Area and Tesla needs to simply relocate them. In any event, this moving Model 3's was not planned.

Any other ideas why Model 3's would be moved from the LA area north?

LA being shut down makes it less likely a location to move inventory than somewhere not shut down. I wouldn't put too much thought into it. It's 5 days from knowing the delivery numbers. If they are good or bad I still expect the macro trends to have more of an impact that deliveries.

 

[CorneliusXX]

VW is burning EUR 2b per week and other EU automakers are in a similarly precarious position - already discussing central bank and government help.

Tesla's relatively small size and impeccable equity raise timing are paying off.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

Relevant quote snips:

Volkswagen is burning through approximately €2bn in cash per week, the world’s largest carmaker revealed.

Manufacturers and suppliers around the globe are scrambling for extra credit, with Fiat Chrysler securing an extra €3.5bn, while VW, which is one of Europe’s largest employers, urged the European Central Bank to buy short-term commercial debt to help it weather the coronavirus pandemic.

The German group has already put almost a third of its 300,000 workers in the country on reduced hours, relying on the government in Berlin to plug the gap.

France’s Renault, which has seen sales almost grind to a halt, has raised the prospect of applying for state-backed loans, although chairman Jean-Dominique Senard dismissed the idea of nationalisation.

“We are reducing our expenses where possible, we are delaying non-critical projects and we can survive a few weeks or months, but not indefinitely,” Herbert Diess, VW’s chief executive, told the German TV channel, ZDF.

“We’re have no sales, we have no revenue, outside of China,” he added, “while we also have to pay out for fixed costs.”

 

[30seconds]

My views on market dynamics

1. this is a *sugar* show of epic proportions. I put a less than 10% chance of economy bouncing back in 3 months because it will take 1-2 years to develop enough “herd immunity” for people to rejoin community activities the way they were before

2. auto sales didn’t come to a crashing stop in previous downturns. Maybe down 20-40%, but not a halt.

3. Tesla only has two functioning factories and enough global demand to keep them both busy even with a significant downturn in global auto sales.

4. due to battery and production improvements Tesla is on a declining manufacturing cost curve for all of their products

5. every auto manufacturer will have the same problems when it comes to Covid-19 and factory employees

6. Tesla is the most automated (less workers) manufacture and directly controls the highest percentage of its supply chain

7. Tesla is in the best position to rapidly implement state of the art employee safety measures for many reasons, including easily the best internal software systems in the world

8. Tesla has the least debt

9. Most importantly - Teslas are the best car you can buy. If you don’t understand this then you don’t drive a car every day and you haven’t owned a Tesla. I’ve had awesome BMWs & Audi’s and I’ve also had accord & camrys, The model 3 is so far beyond it is like jumping 20 years in the future. I expect that the Y is better still.

10. Elon & team are brilliant at managing cash

11. China has shown that they know how to wrestle Covid-19 to the ground and GF3 is already back up and running.

I expect that the next 2-8 weeks will be hell in the markets because the US hasn’t committed to slowing infection rates, but somewhere in there is going to be a hell of a bottom for both the S&P500 and TSLA. This isn’t priced in because no one knows what this jackass is going to do.

Of course things will change for the better, but I am waiting to see when they actually do

 

[MC3OZ]

Here is an alternative view from Cramer:-
Cramer: Investors are 'betting against science' if they are betting against the stock market

And also some ideas about how humans can get better at fighting diseases in future:-
Synthetic Biology — Incredible Opportunity or Existential Threat? | CleanTechnica

I don't know what chance I would give the US economy for the next 3 months, the medical issues need to be sorted out..

But Cramer is right in a way, the market for a good cure or treatment for COVID-19 is huge. The market for a a vaccine is even bigger.

Scientists and researchers are not just motivated by money, in a circumstance like this, money is only a minor part of the motivation.

I posted some suggestions in Coronavirus thread, the US needs to focus on solutions, and sometimes solutions require effort and hard decisions... other times technology comes to the rescue and there is an easier path.

Until there is an easy path, people need to stick it out and do their best on the hard path.

 

[RobStark]

Pretty much all the auto factories in China are up and running.

Most of the global OEMs have insight into Chinese best practices regarding COVID-19.

BTW Anybody seen car commercials on tv? Lincoln running ads about non-contact sales experience.

Local Mercedes and Ford dealer in Los Angeles running ads you can conduct entire car purchase via phone/internet and have car delivered without ever seeing an employee in person.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Jack Rickard has a new video out:

"CoronaVirus Stuff - Stock Picks Going Forward - EVTV" (2:14:14)

Stock market discussion begins around 1:31:27 (~11 min worth). Nothing Tesla specific, just his opinions on the general Market direction over the next few months, mixed in with his usual take on 'Coro-tics'.

 

[alloverx]

So Ford are encouraging you not to go into the stealerships; Its about time and good to see them use the Telsa approach

 

[adiggs]

My views on market dynamics
...

7. Tesla is in the best position to rapidly implement state of the art employee safety measures for many reasons, including easily the best internal software systems in the world
...

I agree with the overall focus of your post, and pretty much everything except this bullet. Do you have a source, or other reason why you think Tesla has the best internal software systems in the world?

My personal impression, as a customer since 2013, is that Tesla has some of the worst internal software systems in the world. As a data management professional, it seems to me that Tesla doesn't know what a data model (3rd normal form), good database design - it's as if they've only hired software engineers and no data management people. It's manifested in such simple problems as service being unable to update my address (back in 2013) because that was the sales system, and it kept pushing the previous owner's address into the default page that service would get.

Marketing db that couldn't keep track of whether to send me invites to launch events (not sure I'd have gone, but as a signature Model X reservation holder, there were a couple of events over the years I'd have at least liked to get an invite).

I can't remember the recent issue somebody else ran into, but I commented along these lines, and let him know that at least he could be comforted by the idea that their basic db design problems change over the years.

They might not be easily the worst, but for a company of Tesla's scale, I've been left feeling like it's amateur hour on this front over the years.

 

[sundaymorning]

I have to say I’m pretty disappointed in Mods handling the CV thread as well as @Factchecking. So much disappointment that I’ve tried reaching out to TMC to have my membership here deleted forever. Right now, I really don’t feel like coming back here (and there’s a reason for me posting this, I’ll get to it later).

Three of my emails asking for the membership cancellation were sent without any result the past several weeks. So I’m throwing both my hands in the air and giving up at this point. Here’s my take on the CV thread, most people over there won’t accept any form of your suggestions about the 20 vaccine that some the of brightest people are working on will work or get fast tracked, despite the medical AI systems predicting the most likely 8 different outcomes to the vaccine. The Chinese found 5 most likely outcome and are testing it like mad scientists. Despite a Chinese official already stating that he’s willing to fast track the vaccine if neccessary, the CV thread won’t accept it.

To sum it up, what the CV thread people are interested in are a few of things: 1) no possibility of any vaccine to save humanity because they said so.. 2) because they said so, we should be warned to sell Tesla stock. 3) the world will end 4) when the world ends, that’s when it’ll be the right time for them to buy stocks.

I’m done dealing with Mods over there. So here I am, posting my CV stuff here. Maybe this will get me banned for life. Would someone please delete my profile for good? There!

btw, I still own Tesla, and have dry powder since locking in some at $830s. Will be buying more BEFORE the world ends.

PS: tips to shorters, become a Mod and the quality of information here will decline dramatically.