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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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TSLA dosn't mirror the S&P 500, it follows the NASDAQ-100.
I've never understood why so many people continue, as a daily measure, compare the movement of Tesla on a percentage basis to the overall market. If Cathy Wood is right and TSLA goes to let's say $4,000 in 5 years (which I believe it will), then the Dow would be at about 9x today's price, or 180,000 on the Dow, assuming a 1.0 correlation. Is that really what they expect to happen? I don't get it.

Edit: One can apply the same principle to any major index. Nasdaq, etc.
 
This is again false. The announcement was to shut down retail stores and go 100% online sales. That didn't happen because Elon changed his mind, whereas TSLAQ never does: they always think they know everything, and everything is BAD, all the time.

IMHO, you read too much FUD. If you stare at the ditch, that's where you'll end up.

Advice.
Why are you refering to TSLAQ and FUD at all. It's a misdirection of the topic being discussed.

He made a snap decision to close stores to cut costs to try and make the sale of cheaper SR M3s then realised the difficulty in closing them.

Read the blog post:
Update on Tesla Stores and Pricing

Last month, we announced that we would be winding down many of our stores and moving to online-only sales in order to pass the savings along to our customers.​

The store closure was the same day as the SR M3 was released.

I don't see why you want to retcon Tesla's past to try and embellish their history. They achieve phenomenal goals on a regular basis. Mistakes can be acknowledged without blaming it on TSLAQ or FUD. Do you have FUD PTSD?

Edit: The earlier blog post specifically says they are closing stores to keep the company profitable while launching M3 SR.

$35,000 Tesla Model 3 Available Now

In addition, we are introducing the Model 3 Standard Range Plus, which offers 240 miles of range, a top speed of 140 mph, 0-60 mph acceleration of just 5.3 seconds and most premium interior features at $37,000 before incentives. For 6% more money, you get 9% more range, more power, and an upgraded interior.

To achieve these prices while remaining financially sustainable, Tesla is shifting sales worldwide to online only.​

Do you think Tesla are lying on their blog posts?

Edit 2: It's really annoying @Fact Checking isn't here. Now I have to hunt down the references myself.
 
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I've never understood why so many people continue, as a daily measure, compare the movement of Tesla on a percentage basis to the overall market. If Cathy Wood is right and TSLA goes to let's say $4,000 in 5 years (which I believe it will), then the Dow would be at about 9x today's price, or 180,000 on the Dow, assuming a 1.0 correlation. Is that really what they expect to happen? I don't get it.

Edit: One can apply the same principle to any major index. Nasdaq, etc.

TSLA often moves at the rate of NDX / Beta (the NASDAQ-100 Index divided by TSLA's Beta). Currently, that implies a 2.08 x multiple for TSLA moves vs. the 'macros'.

Much of daily trading volume follows this 'Global Macro Strategy' on days without substantial news for that particular equity. You can see this plainly with TSLA in the graphs I publish with my daily After-Action Reports.

Cheers!
 
Anyone see what's wrong with the relative valuation of the automakers?

Well, there's a lot that could be judged to be misvalued but what really stuck out for me is that Ferrari and VW are worth more together than Tesla!

Let's see how that turns out!

If I had to pick a number that looks wrong to me, Ferrari stands out..

The new Plaid Model S, and eventually the Tesla Roadster, will be strong competition...

It is easier to make a high end high performance EV, so more car makers will do it..

Ultimately Ferrari has the brand, the style and the reputation, but move to an EV platform, that is a break with tradition.
Stick with ICE and risk being out performed by cheaper EVs...
Go with hybrid and the EVs are cheaper, but not necessarily better, that is probably the best option..

Can Ferrari maintain sales volumes and margins when exposed to more competition?
My guess probably not....

Nostalgia will ensure they survive, but IMO that valuation looks high...
 
Some news coming out about a deal in Congress? All stocks moving in after hours
No vote tonight. I think this is just steady buying interest After Hrs in anticipation of a deal.

Stimulus package latest: GOP senators say stimulus vote unlikely tonight as negotiations continue - CNNPolitics

I'm not saying I've seen anything in terms of news on the deal. Just that practically every stock in my portfolio list is up 2-4% after hours

Appears to be lowish volume, at least for TSLA.
 
Some news coming out about a deal in Congress? All stocks moving in after hours
I have not seen any latest yet besides the previous 2nd lock up in Congress.
The AH price is probably due to Trump's mention on one effective trial using a combination of exiting malaria drug. He is planning to try on more serious affected patients. It's a glimpse of hope before the dedicated vaccine is developed.
 
If I had to pick a number that looks wrong to me, Ferrari stands out..

The new Plaid Model S, and eventually the Tesla Roadster, will be strong competition...

It is easier to make a high end high performance EV, so more car makers will do it..

Ultimately Ferrari has the brand, the style and the reputation, but move to an EV platform, that is a break with tradition.
Stick with ICE and risk being out performed by cheaper EVs...
Go with hybrid and the EVs are cheaper, but not necessarily better, that is probably the best option..

Can Ferrari maintain sales volumes and margins when exposed to more competition?
My guess probably not....

Nostalgia will ensure they survive, but IMO that valuation looks high...

Yes Ferrari will be just fine.

They are not in the business of selling cars, but are in the business of selling collectibles. Most Ferraris increase in value due to their edition size and attention to detail. Most high net worth individuals see the car as an alternative asset like art and high end watches.

Most Ferraris doesn't hold any kind of record for being the fastest. The roadster 2.0 is not a competitor. It is however a competitor to Lambos and any hypercars that doesn't have any collectability.
The old school will always find art in mechanical engineering. They will never see an Apple watch(with say 1 year battery life) to be valuable compared to a Patek, even though the Apple watch can do so much more.
 
A plea to the mods. I'm totally ignorant of what goes on in world of moderating forums, but I suspect it's a difficult, thankless task. But as it pertains to Tesla and TSLA,,,

- The world has gone a little nuts. (Yes, I'm aware that's a gross understatement)
- We all know the effects this has had on TSLA
- People like KarenRei and FactChecking have provided calm, clear, reasoned discourse.
- This forum is a godsend to people like me, to help cut through all the garbage out there
- The amount of garbage is going to increase, some due to general noise, and some from trolls/TSLAQ. Those bastards won't stop. They feed on these times.

In light of that, I respectfully ask that this rift be settled, and settled quickly. We need each other, now more so than ever. Please reach out to the two of them, and let's put this behind us and get back to what's really important-- to gain a better understanding of the company most likely to guide this planet to a better future. That's way more important than any of us. Thank you for reading, and for being mods
I got about 700 posts behind and decided to fast forward to today. What happened with/to my mentors KR and FC?
Thanks...