Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Just as a small cheer-up, here's a time-lapse movie of a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch as seen from LA:

Also a reminder that the next Starlink mission is scheduled to launch in ~4 hours.

A successful (or unsuccessful) Starlink launch might have an effect on TSLA price action. If this Starlink launch is successful then I believe the Starlink fleet is going to have enough satellites to start initial service in North America and parts of Europe.

Correction: Launch is in 3 minutes at 8:16

SpaceX F9 - Starlink 5 - SLC-39A
Web cast:
STARLINK MISSION | SpaceX

 

[Dare]

I don't think we'll be at a bottom of TSLA or market in general until VIX drops significantly, about 50% or more.

I think this an important point. Volatility is increasing, and there are ways to play that to your advantage other than options. There are a variety of financial products that closely mirror the VIX. Not advice. And be careful out there.

 

[tinm]

The main concern of Russ Mitchell from the L.A. Times is likely to keep getting his paycheck - which to a large extent comes from ad revenue from traditional auto.

Proof, please? Most newspapers get relatively little ad revenue from auto dealerships or automakers anymore. Auto advertising has shifted to TV, radio, direct mail, and online. Not print. In my state it is almost impossible to find a single automaker or dealer ad in any of the major papers statewide — not only have I looked, but I’ve sat down with dealers to ask why.

 

[DriveMe]

Also a reminder that the next Starlink mission is scheduled to launch in ~4 hours.

In half an hour actually: 8:16 AM EDT, 12:16 UTC

 

[Dr. J]

I cancelled my model Y order this morning (the $2500 variety) because I believe I will not be willing to be the guy with the new car while family, friends and family are scared about money and the future. Most people don't do public display of new luxury goods during troubled times.

I expect Musk is thinking about what his companies can make to respond to the coming medical crisis.

Moonstruck is the new I Ching.
It costs money because it saves money.

 

[Fact Checking]

Launch is in 38 minutes at 8:21

SpaceX F9 - Starlink 5 - SLC-39A
Web cast:
STARLINK MISSION | SpaceX

Oops, thanks for the correction - almost missed this launch due to the stupidly inaccurate YouTube live stream timestamps ...

I'm a big SpaceX fan, as many here - IMO SpaceX could become as big of a story in the communications industry as Tesla.

 

[X Fan]

What are talking about South Korea ? For last 3 days the new cases have been under 100. What is respiked means?

saw something on bbc/guardian this morning plus this:
South Korea reports jump in coronavirus cases after call center outbreak

 

[Fact Checking]

saw something on bbc/guardian this morning plus this:
South Korea reports jump in coronavirus cases after call center outbreak

That's basically false, see my reply here, with the raw numbers quoted:

Sorry, but that's false - South Korea has seen small fluctuations below 100 new infections a day:

Feb 18:     1 new cases,     30 total cases ( +3.2%)
Feb 19:    27 new cases,     57 total cases (+46.5%)
Feb 20:    53 new cases,    110 total cases (+47.7%)  #
Feb 21:    96 new cases,    206 total cases (+46.3%)  ###
Feb 22:   232 new cases,    438 total cases (+52.8%)  ########
Feb 24:   397 new cases,    835 total cases (+47.4%)  #############
Feb 25:   144 new cases,    979 total cases (+14.6%)  #####
Feb 26:   284 new cases,   1263 total cases (+22.4%)  #########
Feb 27:   505 new cases,   1768 total cases (+28.5%)  #################
Feb 28:   571 new cases,   2339 total cases (+24.4%)  ###################
Feb 29:   815 new cases,   3154 total cases (+25.8%)  ############################
Mar 01:   586 new cases,   3740 total cases (+15.6%)  ####################
Mar 02:   599 new cases,   4339 total cases (+13.8%)  ####################
Mar 03:   851 new cases,   5190 total cases (+16.3%)  #############################
Mar 04:   435 new cases,   5625 total cases ( +7.7%)  ###############
Mar 05:   467 new cases,   6092 total cases ( +7.6%)  ################
Mar 06:   505 new cases,   6597 total cases ( +7.6%)  #################
Mar 07:   449 new cases,   7046 total cases ( +6.3%)  ###############
Mar 08:   272 new cases,   7318 total cases ( +3.7%)  #########
Mar 09:   165 new cases,   7483 total cases ( +2.2%)  #####
Mar 10:    35 new cases,   7518 total cases (  +.4%)  #
Mar 11:   242 new cases,   7760 total cases ( +3.1%)  ########
Mar 12:   114 new cases,   7874 total cases ( +1.4%)  ###
Mar 13:   110 new cases,   7984 total cases ( +1.3%)  ###
Mar 14:   107 new cases,   8091 total cases ( +1.3%)  ###
Mar 15:    76 new cases,   8167 total cases (  +.9%)  ##
Mar 16:    74 new cases,   8241 total cases (  +.8%)  ##
Mar 17:    84 new cases,   8325 total cases ( +1.0%)  ##
Mar 18:    93 new cases,   8418 total cases ( +1.1%)  ###

Growth rate is very low, around 1% of all cases, which suggests that it's under control. The fluctuations are roughly in line with what China has experienced at a similar stage.

China has seen near zero new infections this week, even in Hubei, and they are a country of 1.3 billion people.

 

[Dr. J]

In 2008 the WallStreet panicked, this time governments are in panic.
Next time it will be ... who?

Government was in panic in 2008 as well.

 

[lklundin]

BMW stops car production in Europe and South Africa (link)

BMW is stopping car production in Europe and South Africa until mid-April due to the pandemic. "As of today, we will shut down our European automotive plants and the Rosslyn plant in South Africa," said CEO Oliver Zipse at the online annual press conference.

The production interruption is expected to be until April 19. A company spokesman added that motorcycle production in Berlin would continue until further notice.

The _reason_ why traditional auto makers are shutting down is subject to some speculation.

There is a professor at a Swiss university, he likes to tweet about his analyses and interviews regarding the German auto industry:
Ferdinand Dudenhöffer (@DudenhofferAUTO) on Twitter

Among his several points are:
- the German auto-industry is happy to truthfully report that they have to halt production due to supply chain issues - because then they don't have to explain that they have no buyers for their cars.
- their only way to reduce losses is to close factories and layoff (mostly short-term) employees.
- When Altmaier (German minister for economy & energy) talks of nationalization of companies, then "one can count with five fingers what to expect" regarding the auto industry.

Here is the tweet with his most recent interview:
Twitter

This will not help Tesla to enter the S & P 500, but it appears that with their still relatively small market share and high demand for their cars, Tesla is set to manage the near future much better than their competition.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Looks like the stock market stays open:

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says financial markets will stay open, but could shorten trading hours

 

[cricketman]

Among his several points are:
- the German auto-industry is happy to truthfully report that they have to halt production due to supply chain issues - because then they don't have to explain that they have no buyers for their cars.
- their only way to reduce losses is to close factories and layoff (short-term) employees.
- When Altmaier (German minister for economy & energy) talks of nationalization of companies, then "one can count with five fingers what to expect" regarding the auto industry

Yes, the supply chain is broken and they want to be seeing as doing the right thing for the good of the country so they get first in-line for a government bailout

This is happening all across Spain right now with all the major companies. The government is promising to bail everyone out but the government is almost bankrupt themselves!

Add in the way lower tax revenue during the shutdown and I have no idea where any of this money is going to come from.

If the shut down lasts more than a few weeks then there will be a way bigger price to pay then not shutting down at all and arranging some temporary hospitals with extra ventilators

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla has enough cash to weather revenue falling 90% for a full three months. In such a case, the bank estimates, Tesla would burn about $800 million in cash a month. According to its estimates, Tesla has about 14 months of cash it could burn through.

 

[Fact Checking]

Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla has enough cash to weather revenue falling 90% for a full three months. In such a case, the bank estimates, Tesla would burn about $800 million in cash a month. According to its estimates, Tesla has about 14 months of cash it could burn through.

This is of course a nonsense scenario, because there's no reason for Tesla China to stop making cars and utilizing GF1 output ...

Tesla China at the nominal 150k/year output would be able to utilize 33% of Tesla's battery output, and at the year-end planned rate of 250k/year it could utilize about 61% of the battery output.

There's also no reason to believe that GF1 energy products will stop to be made. Demand is so high that PowerWall backlog in California is reported to be until September this year ...

There's also reports that Fremont is still operating, so maybe they are planning to use the 'critical infrastructure' federal designation of vehicle manufacturing and the protections offered by that, which preempt most of state law, and a court will decide which designation should be used.

Carsonight has also just reported this about GF1:

"I also hear that Tesla at GF1 has implemented Lingang level precautions, which Panasonic already has on their cell machines. Interesting times."​

 

[FrankSG]

There's also no reason to believe that GF1 energy products will stop to be made.

Tesla's battery business has been severely supply constrained for 2 years now since the M3 production ramp issues.

Even if demand for Tesla vehicles drops a lot more than the extent to which Tesla is currently supply constrained, leaving Tesla demand constrained in their vehicle business, Tesla Energy would rejoice and gladly make use of a lot of extra unused cells.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I expect Musk is thinking about what his companies can make to respond to the coming medical crisis.

More Flame Throwers?

 

[AlexS]

saw something on bbc/guardian this morning plus this:
South Korea reports jump in coronavirus cases after call center outbreak

That's fake, but it doesn't matter. this coronavirus is here to stay and everyone will get it at one point in their life, unless you vaccinate. COVID 19 is almost asymptomatic in children and many young people, it is mild or about same like flu or cold in middle aged. It is serious and can be deadly for people 65+ and or with underling condition, same as influenza. Case closed CV is here to stay, this is new normal and life goes on.

 

[traxila]

That's fake, but it doesn't matter. this coronavirus is here to stay and everyone will get it at one point in their life, unless you vaccinate. COVID 19 is almost asymptomatic in children and many young people, it is mild or about same like flu or cold in middle aged. It is serious and can be deadly for people 65+ and or with underling condition, same as influenza. Case closed CV is here to stay, this is new normal and life goes on.

Have to get past the first go around. Then you can say this. Maybe. Do not dismiss the young people being affected by this. Across the board in all age groups above 20 this is a worse deal than the flu. Think we all want to move on the the new normal. Maybe your statement will work a lot better in three months.

 

[Krugerrand]

There doesn't have to be any actual collusion or anti-Tesla investment from these media people behind this.

But there is, so let’s be clear about that.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

And enough with the discussion of the number of corona cases in South Korea. If there is a need it can be discussed here: Coronavirus. But it definitely is not relevant enough for macros or Tesla's share price.

On another note: no, there was no censoring 1 or 2 months ago about how the corona virus could be a threat to market sentiment. Mods only moved endless in-depth discussions about the development of the disease to a dedicated thread, in order to keep it from cluttering up the main thread.