Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Berlin is famous for its no-holds-barred raves.

(My personal guess, formed in the 80'ies is that due to the city being mostly cutoff from any rural influence for a few decades, they developed a uniquely condensed city-culture there).

My family lived in the area when I was very young (Dad was in the Army) and he has often mentioned the Berlin nightclub/rave culture. This would have been very early 80s. I've spent time in Munchen as an adult, but haven't made it north yet.

 

[lafrisbee]

So in this panel discussion the "expert" on Tesla claims that Tesla is going to have a "Real bad first quarter." But then states that Tesla is going to do so well after Q1 that people should buy it.
So then? If this guy is clueless about the particulars of Tesla for Q1 what is the value of his outlook for Q2? He believes Tesla is going to "recover from Q1"?
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, Quote, History & News - Yahoo Finance

 

[ev-enthusiast]

SP action feels a litte weak.
Could be a dead cat bounce.
Holding my core shares.
Producing vehicle 1 Mio and first deliivery of a Model Y are positives, no doubt, but macros don't seem to getting better right now.
They are shutting down Italy this can not be a good.
No panic here, just an observation.

 

[Prunesquallor]

A mega rave cave. Like an underground nightclub. Most likely a joke, but with Elon who knows?

Oh, blease. We all know...

 

[dl003]

I'd venture to say we'll see no real buying until P&D comes out, apart from that related to macros.

 

[WarpedOne]

I'm still waiting for my $420 ...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Any ideas about what Elon means with this "Mega-cave" under the Berlin Giga?

Earlier he tweeted about how the Coachella music festival sucks because it is too corporate now. So this cave tweet is another reference to that thread.

 

[KarenRei]

So in this panel discussion the "expert" on Tesla claims that Tesla is going to have a "Real bad first quarter." But then states that Tesla is going to do so well after Q1 that people should buy it.
So then? If this guy is clueless about the particulars of Tesla for Q1 what is the value of his outlook for Q2? He believes Tesla is going to "recover from Q1"?
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, Quote, History & News - Yahoo Finance

Love these "experts" talking down Q1.

Keep it up, you guys! Expectations are 80k - everyone in agreement here?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I'm still waiting for my $420 ...

I would not rule out $420 or low $400s.
Nasdaq losing its gains from earlier this day, 10 year treasury yield trending down again.
People here talk about the rave cave at Giga Berlin while people in Italy are dying every day more and more.
Please read an italian news paper to get first hand info on what is going on currently in Italy (use google translate).
In the rest of Europe confirmed cases spraed about everywhere by now.
Numbers will go up exponentially at the beginning like in Italy.
What could be the reasons that in the US all this mell will happen slower or at a lower scale?

 

[Dr. J]

Based on earlier posts, are we sure it's not the bat cave?

I think Iron Man had a cave, as well.

 

[humbaba]

Something tells me you won't be backing up the truck. Because the chance of the world's fastest-growing and most innovative automaker going under $400 is so slim as to not be worth considering. You couldn't stop the flood of buyers at $500, let alone under $400. The other problem would be finding a shareholder willing to sell TSLA at those prices.

You are forgetting, there will be a lot of short sellers offering at those prices (assuming it ever gets that low). So while no investor will be selling, lots of vested interests will be. You know, all part of their Sell-Low, Buy-High wealth redistribution model.

 

[jhm]

DCB?

* Dead Cat Bounce
** Apologies to cats
*** Apologies to the dead
**** Apologies to those dislike acronyms
***** Apologies to my parents for turning out as me
****** Apologies for so many apologies. Sorry.
******* Not sorry. Screw you all.

 

[Nocturnal]

SP action feels a litte weak.
Could be a dead cat bounce.
Holding my core shares.
Producing vehicle 1 Mio and first deliivery of a Model Y are positives, no doubt, but macros don't seem to getting better right now.
They are shutting down Italy this can not be a good.
No panic here, just an observation.

My personal call for the market is that this will keep happening. The government will do something like lower rates or cut payroll taxes and Wall Street will get excited and things pop, then a couple days later we get bad CV news and it drops like a rock again. Rinse and repeat as waves of good and bad news come in.

If Trump wants to help the market he needs a solid containment and treatment plan. Roll out massive mobile testing operations so people don't have to go out to get tested. That sort of thing. Unfortunately he isn't a leader, but a con artist. So for him he goes to what he knows, he says he wants to cut payroll taxes. Payroll tax cuts won't save the travel industry or make people go out to eat.

There is money to be made on these rises and falls IMO. This won't be over until we get a mass produced vaccine or it burns out. Possibly we get a breather over the summer.

Love these "experts" talking down Q1.

Keep it up, you guys! Expectations are 80k - everyone in agreement here?

Tesla daily just had a nice breakdown based on the 1 millionth car being produced. IIRC the math works out a conservative 110k production level for Q1.

 

[Fact Checking]

Watching CNBC on my flight.

A number of analysts are expecting that the US will have below zero 2 & 10 year interest rates by June plus noted that there is significant bond default risk.

I haven’t processed yet how to invest in a market with these conditions.

Corporate bonds or government bonds? The Fed won't let dollar treasury debt default, so they must have meant corporate bonds, right?

US Treasury.

I believe U.K. yields went below zero today and some Euro bonds have traded below zero previously.

This is uncharted times.

Sorry, then that's absurd bull-sugar. Treasury cannot go "bankrupt" - even under Trump. The U.S. government creates Treasury bonds and dollars as well.

Note that negative yields mean investors are paying the government to store their cash ...

That's the exact opposite of "bankruptcy", it's a "flight to the safety of government bonds".

Not sure what those "experts" were smoking - did they offer any rational scenario, or was it just the usual gaslighting with a serious face?

Under what scenario do you argue can it happen?

 

[Unpilot]

Stock ticker looks like a fast, scary ski slope!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Please substract China.

I do not want to talk to much about this topic in the short term thread, but I get the impression that people do not know what is currently going on in Italy (I could not imagine this stuff happening in Italy just a couple of days ago!) and spreading across the rest of Europe.

And yet...

 

[gerebgraus]

So in this panel discussion the "expert" on Tesla claims that Tesla is going to have a "Real bad first quarter." But then states that Tesla is going to do so well after Q1 that people should buy it.
So then? If this guy is clueless about the particulars of Tesla for Q1 what is the value of his outlook for Q2? He believes Tesla is going to "recover from Q1"?
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, Quote, History & News - Yahoo Finance

Dan Ives is occasionally a TSLA bull, occasionally he is a TSLA bear, but he is clueless all the time. And these guys move markets. Amazing.

 

[oldTAVguy]

That's one of the negatives about Americans. We are very optimistic people, individualist etc. but that can turn into being very self centered very easily. Especially if you listen to politicians/media telling you that it's not a threat and is actually a hoax.

This is a negative on all people. Not just Americans.

 

[AudubonB]

MOD:
Take all "rave" discussions to the Musk Musik thread. No more here.

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla daily just had a nice breakdown based on the 1 millionth car being produced. IIRC the math works out a conservative 110k production level for Q1.

And by "a conservative 110k", you mean 80k, right?