Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sudre]

IMO projection for April is... it'll be a very busy (and positive) month for Tesla.

1) Q1 vehicle deliveries April 3rd
2) Giga NY company talk re: energy April 8th
3) Giga NV battery day (separate) April 15th
4) Q1 ER which will follow both... April 22nd
5) lots of Model Y exposure throughout April in mainstream press as well as public/Youtubers

The reason the Q1 ER will follow those demo days is that if the ER comes first, there will be a whole lotta stuff they can't talk about when it comes to projections for the year and further out.

If the demos are before the ER, they can talk about projections and incorporate pertinent aspects of the latest tech.

Is there not some kind of quiet moment around ERs that major announcements can not be made?

 

[Cosmacelf]

If Q1 is disappointing then this could give us one last good buy opportunity that we will have in a long time. I think Q2, Q3, and Q4 will be profitable. Unless, something like that fing virus happens. This stock will go up accordingly with each profitable quarter. If Tesla isn’t profitable for Q1 this may be one of the last great buying opportunities at these levels. I for one will back up the truck and buy more shares and some calls.

Unfortunately (or fortunately) a lot of other people think so too. There was a lot of buying demand when the price dipped to 700 for, what, 15 minutes late last week. 700 or something like 720 might indeed be the lowest we see this stock going forward barring some big external shock (like a virus epidemic, but what are the chances of that?). The longer it goes without TSLA retracing, the likelihood of hitting 720 again becomes smaller. At some point, more and more people are going to say screw it, and buy TSLA at whatever the market is.

 

[Etna]

Thanks. A semi-logarithmic plot would be even more informative.

Good idea. The log scale shows a discontinuity when the Model 3 ramp occurs in Q3 2018, as expected.

 

[StealthP3D]

JP Morgan Chase increases TSLA holdings from 358,000 to 2,537,000 in latest filing.
JP Morgan Chase Analyst price target 240 SELL.

And they want us to do as they say, not as they do.

 

[Rammstein]

I ate an edible and I don’t know how to set up a pole. Just wondering who thinks Tesla will have a loss and my god it will shock the market again! or who thinks Tesla will surprise the market with a loss.

My vote is Tesla will have a loss this Quarter. They are ramping the Y and 3 China. The earnings report said there might be a loss when ramping products. Q1 is usually a loss. Don’t get me wrong, I love Tesla and I invested the majority of my savings in it for it least 10 years.

There is also the virus going on right. After Q1 and the virus is under control I will invest more into Tesla.

 

[pz1975]

I ate an edible and I don’t know how to set up a pole. Just wondering who thinks Tesla will have a loss and my god it will shock the market again! or who thinks Tesla will surprise the market with a loss.

My vote is Tesla will have a loss this Quarter. They are ramping the Y and 3 China. The earnings report said there might be a loss when ramping products. Q1 is usually a loss. Don’t get me wrong, I love Tesla and I invested the majority of my savings in it for it least 10 years.

There is also the virus going on right. After Q1 and the virus is under control I will invest more into Tesla.

I’m glad the market isn’t open for you right now. Haha.

 

[SageBrush]

NASDAQ reports volume of 320 shares at 18:04 hrs at a VWAP of $313.502
After-Hours somebody executed a trade at $313.50 at 18:04:08 (why would they?), possibly a fat-fingered trading entry.

A $144k typo ?

 

[Opus BC fan]

I ate an edible and I don’t know how to set up a pole. Just wondering who thinks Tesla will have a loss and my god it will shock the market again! or who thinks Tesla will surprise the market with a loss.

My vote is Tesla will have a loss this Quarter. They are ramping the Y and 3 China. The earnings report said there might be a loss when ramping products. Q1 is usually a loss. Don’t get me wrong, I love Tesla and I invested the majority of my savings in it for it least 10 years.

There is also the virus going on right. After Q1 and the virus is under control I will invest more into Tesla.

One of the symptoms of cannabis intoxication can be unfounded fears (paranoia). Something to consider...

 

[dl003]

man looks like I have to start placing GTC $400 buys

 

[pz1975]

man looks like I have to start placing GTC $400 buys

I’m doing $400.01 then.

 

[Jo-]

I ate an edible and I don’t know how to set up a pole. Just wondering who thinks Tesla will have a loss and my god it will shock the market again! or who thinks Tesla will surprise the market with a loss.

My vote is Tesla will have a loss this Quarter. They are ramping the Y and 3 China. The earnings report said there might be a loss when ramping products. Q1 is usually a loss. Don’t get me wrong, I love Tesla and I invested the majority of my savings in it for it least 10 years.

There is also the virus going on right. After Q1 and the virus is under control I will invest more into Tesla.

From Reddit: It’s 69 days until 4/20/20, how do you feel?

 

[Singuy]

I ate an edible and I don’t know how to set up a pole. Just wondering who thinks Tesla will have a loss and my god it will shock the market again! or who thinks Tesla will surprise the market with a loss.

My vote is Tesla will have a loss this Quarter. They are ramping the Y and 3 China. The earnings report said there might be a loss when ramping products. Q1 is usually a loss. Don’t get me wrong, I love Tesla and I invested the majority of my savings in it for it least 10 years.

There is also the virus going on right. After Q1 and the virus is under control I will invest more into Tesla.

I'm pretty sure people who caused this stock to jump into the 600s after last ER doesn't have reading comprehension problems. It's not a secret or a surprise if Q1 is a loss. It's in the letter and was talked about on the call many times.
Surprise now involves production ramp of Y and Shanghai 3 being SLOWER than the initial Model 3 ramp(what is priced in is faster than the OG Model 3 ramp),a massive loss which makes s&p inclusion for post q2 to be unlikely, massive tank of S/X sales, and delivery under 100k cars. But even if Tesla delievers under 100k cars, they can reinerate their 500k+ car delivery guide again and this time it will have credibility unlike last time.

The rest are already priced in.

 

[PhaseWhite]

And they want us to do as they say, not as they do.

Or they sold too much call exposure and are now hedged...

 

[Eugene Ash]

I’m doing $400.01 then.

Do they work after-hours? My 720 was not triggered. Do i have to do smth. magical?

 

[PhaseWhite]

I'm pretty sure people who caused this stock to jump into the 600s after last ER doesn't have reading comprehension problems. It's not a secret or a surprise if Q1 is a loss. It's in the letter and was talked about on the call many times.
Surprise now involves production ramp of Y and Shanghai 3 being SLOWER than the initial Model 3 ramp(what is priced in is faster than the OG Model 3 ramp),a massive loss which makes s&p inclusion for post q2 to be unlikely, massive tank of S/X sales, and delivery under 100k cars. But even if Tesla delievers under 100k cars, they can reinerate their 500k+ car delivery guide again and this time it will have credibility unlike last time.

The rest are already priced in.

Q1 2019 created some good buying opportunities for long term investors. Q1 2020 could do the same if it’s surprising to the downside... but I think expectations are probably more in line this time.

 

[dl003]

I’m doing $400.01 then.

Looks like we have ourselves a legitimate AH glitch market.
Its like a normal market, just much more profitable.

 

[Sparky]

Like These? Many bad memories. My knuckles still hurt....
View attachment 510228

Gaah! "Sister Agnes Claire, I'm sorry. I will never put my name on the top left corner of my homework again. Only top right corner. Only top right corner. Only top ri...............
I have friends who entered college with scars on the tops of their arms from so many ruler whacks. PTSD.

 

[purplewalt]

It's a shame that Exxon et al don't do more with their Intellectual capital. They've likely been hiring some of the best chemists and scientists for decades. E.g. their scientists could relatively accurately predict global warming the best part of half a century ago.

It's a shame they don't devote some of that capital to battery science, they are in a better position than many to make rapid progress.

They might even save their company.

I know there is an entire group within Exxon that operates as its own profit center: they have an in-house trading room with their own traders, and back in mid-90's were earning over $1 Million a trading day.
I can only imagine the amounts of money they are are dealing with 25 years later....

One person on their desk knows (knew) how much cash they (Exxon Corporate) had on hand every minute, and they day-traded with it.

With the Billions of Dollars Exxon has available, and my conjecture is Koch Brothers and other oil related entities have similar in-house trading groups.


Who and what they are "investing" in and what their thought process is suspect.
Market manipulation by corporations is a very real factor in the total volatility for days like last Tuesday, and a lot of craziness is the net result.

 

[Rammstein]

I ate an edible and I don’t know how to set up a pole. Just wondering who thinks Tesla will have a loss and my god it will shock the market again! or who thinks Tesla will surprise the market with a loss.

My vote is Tesla will have a loss this Quarter. They are ramping the Y and 3 China. The earnings report said there might be a loss when ramping products. Q1 is usually a loss. Don’t get me wrong, I love Tesla and I invested the majority of my savings in it for it least 10 years.

There is also the virus going on right. After Q1 and the virus is under control I will invest more into Tesla.

I am not saying sell your shares because Q1 could be negative. The stock could be up to 1100 before end of Q1. That Company day talk Tesla is having could propel the stock a lot. Damn I liked the sound of battery investor day better. Sounded more intense.

 

[JusRelax]

I'm pretty sure people who caused this stock to jump into the 600s after last ER doesn't have reading comprehension problems. It's not a secret or a surprise if Q1 is a loss. It's in the letter and was talked about on the call many times.
Surprise now involves production ramp of Y and Shanghai 3 being SLOWER than the initial Model 3 ramp(what is priced in is faster than the OG Model 3 ramp),a massive loss which makes s&p inclusion for post q2 to be unlikely, massive tank of S/X sales, and delivery under 100k cars. But even if Tesla delievers under 100k cars, they can reinerate their 500k+ car delivery guide again and this time it will have credibility unlike last time.

The rest are already priced in.

Q1 2019 created some good buying opportunities for long term investors. Q1 2020 could do the same if it’s surprising to the downside... but I think expectations are probably more in line this time.

We'll have to wait and see if the analysts' fake estimates are taken seriously by investors like how they normally are. Yahoo currently have an analyst average of 0.80 EPS currently. If anyone is expecting a loss in Q1, they might need to prepare for a buying opportunity since this would coincide with a huge miss based off of analysts' expectations.

Still, there are so many things happening at around the same time that could all be positive, including April Company Talk, Battery Investor Day, Model Y Release/Reviews. Furthermore, I do get the feeling that if Tesla is able to beat analysts' expectations for Q1, it will completely and utterly destroy the bear's 'No Demand' argument and the stock will continue it's strong recent gains.